Apple News Today: "The polls are as close as can be. The result might not be." – November 4, 2024

Hosted by Sumita Basu

Election Day Overview

As Election Day approaches, the air is thick with anticipation and activity. Sumita Basu opens the episode by highlighting the surging voter turnout, with over 70 million ballots cast during the weekend. The campaigns are in full swing, making their final pushes to secure victory.

Campaign Efforts of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Kamala Harris has been actively campaigning across key battleground states. Vice President Harris visited Georgia, North Carolina, and spoke at a church in Detroit, Michigan. Notably, she made a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) alongside Maya Rudolph, who impersonated her. This move underscores Harris's strategy to engage with a broader, more diverse audience.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been canvassing in North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. His campaign rhetoric remains contentious, as he continues to propagate unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen. In a recent rally, Trump made a concerning remark about journalists, stating:

Donald Trump [01:45]: "And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much because I don't. I don't mind that."
(Timestamp: 01:45)

Following backlash, Trump's campaign attempted to clarify his comments, asserting that they were not intended to threaten journalists.

Polling Insights and Predictions

In a pivotal segment, Gideon Resnick provides an in-depth analysis of the current polling landscape:

Gideon Resnick [02:15]: "For the entire course of this campaign, you've often heard Vice President Kamala Harris say that she is the underdog in this race..."
(Timestamp: 02:15)

Resnick explains that while Harris and her team have historically viewed themselves as underdogs, recent polls indicate a narrow lead. A notable poll from Siena College, conducted by respected pollster Ann Seltzer, shows Harris leading 55% to Trump's 44% among late-deciding voters in swing states. This poll, particularly from Iowa, serves as a potential bellwether for other Midwestern states.

Sumita further elaborates on factors influencing voter decisions in these final days:

Sumita Basu [03:23]: "Given all of this, how is the Trump campaign feeling?"
(Timestamp: 03:23)

Resnick counters that despite some recent positive indicators for Trump, such as strong Republican early voting numbers, the most reliable nonpartisan polls continue to favor Harris.

Senate and House Races Overview

The episode transitions to the Senate and House races:

• Senate: Democrats hold a slim majority with 34 seats up for grabs. Key races include:

  • Montana: Incumbent Democrat John Tester faces a tough challenge from Republicans.
  • Texas: Republican Ted Cruz is in a tight race.
  • Nebraska: Independent candidate Dan Osborne is performing strongly against Republican Deb Fisher.

• House of Representatives: Viewed as more of a toss-up, with 43 competitive races. Republicans currently control the chamber, with significant gains in traditionally Democratic districts from states like New York and California.

Resnick suggests a potential split Congress scenario, where one party controls the Senate and the other the House, leading to a divided government.

Election Spending and Campaign Finance

This election cycle is set to be the most expensive in US history, with Open Secrets reporting nearly $16 billion spent across campaigns and political groups. Highlights include:

• Political Advertisements: A record $10 billion has been poured into ads.
• Campaign Fundraising:
  • Kamala Harris raised over $1 billion in approximately 100 days, surpassing President Biden’s 2020 campaign's yearly total.
  • Donald Trump has leveraged Super PACs extensively. Notable contributions include:
    • Michael Bloomberg donated $50 million to a PAC supporting Harris.
    • Elon Musk contributed close to $119 million to a pro-Trump PAC responsible for significant door-knocking and canvassing efforts in battleground states.
    • A Mellon family member donated $150 million to support Trump.

Evan Osnos, a staff writer for The New Yorker, voices his concerns:

Evan Osnos [10:45]: "I do think that is one of the things that's on the line in this election, is the idea of whether it's possible to win against a campaign that is backed by a few juggernaut billionaire funders..."
(Timestamp: 10:45)

Osnos warns about the implications of disproportionate financial influence on democracy, emphasizing the erosion of public trust.

Daniel Weiner, director of elections and government at the Brennan Center for Justice, explains how Super PACs contribute to skyrocketing election spending:

Daniel Weiner [09:49]: "A PAC that is separate from candidates and parties can raise unlimited amounts of money..."
(Timestamp: 09:49)

The Freedom to Vote Act, supported by Democrats, seeks to implement stricter regulations on PACs, aiming for greater transparency and independence from candidate campaigns.

Security Measures for Election Day

The Washington Post reports unprecedented security measures in place for Election Day:

• Panic Buttons and Surveillance Drones: Installed for election workers to ensure safety.
• National Guard Activation: Deployed in Nevada and Washington, with additional law enforcement presence as a precaution.

Democracy experts interviewed by the Post assure voters of their safety, although they lament the necessity of such measures due to heightened political tensions.

Cultural Reflections and Voter Sentiments

A poignant tradition continues as voters leave "I Voted" stickers on the tombstone of Susan B. Anthony, a tireless advocate for women's suffrage who cast an illegal ballot in 1872. This year marks the first time her home in Rochester, New York—now a museum—serves as an early voting site. The museum's president noted a massive turnout, honoring Anthony's legacy.

Tips to Lower Election-Related Anxiety

With the nation's anxiety peaking, mental health professionals offer practical advice:

• Physical Techniques: Holding an ice bag to the face for 30 seconds can help slow a racing heart.
• Healthy Distractions: Engaging in activities that divert the mind from stress.
• Innovative Solutions: The San Diego Zoo partners with a meditation app to provide a live stream of adorable animals, leveraging research that shows watching cute animals can reduce stress by up to 50%.

Sumita encourages listeners to explore these resources for managing anxiety during the final days leading to the election.

Closing Remarks and Additional Resources

Sumita concludes by directing listeners to the Apple News app for comprehensive state-by-state voting guides and upcoming narrated articles, including a gripping story from Atavist Magazine about a community's efforts to eliminate a neo-Nazi presence in Maine.

Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump [01:45]: "And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much because I don't. I don't mind that."
• Evan Osnos [10:45]: "I do think that is one of the things that's on the line in this election, is the idea of whether it's possible to win against a campaign that is backed by a few juggernaut billionaire funders."
• Daniel Weiner [09:49]: "A PAC that is separate from candidates and parties can raise unlimited amounts of money..."

This episode of Apple News Today provides a comprehensive overview of the high-stakes atmosphere surrounding the 2024 US Election, delving into campaign strategies, financial dynamics, security concerns, and the societal implications of unprecedented election spending.