They bet on the war — then tried to rewrite the news

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Apple News Today

Episode: They bet on the war — then tried to rewrite the news
Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Cecilia Ley

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Overview

This episode covers the escalating Middle East conflict, U.S. intelligence responses, and a gripping story about how the rise of online betting markets is leading to real-world efforts to manipulate war reporting. The show also features uplifting March Madness moments and highlights top news stories from civil rights history, sports, and the U.S. economy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation of Middle East Conflict ([00:05]–[04:32])

• Recent Attacks:
  • Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field in Iran, the world’s largest gas field and a vital part of Iran's domestic energy infrastructure ([00:19]).
  • Retaliatory missile and drone attacks on facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

    “If these kinds of attacks continue, the consequences could be more serious than those of blocking shipments. Disruptions to production itself could take months or years to recover from.”
    — Cecilia Ley ([01:47])

• U.S. Position:
  • The U.S. was reportedly aware of the strikes, yet President Trump denied prior knowledge and stated future strikes wouldn't occur unless Iran attacked Qatar.
• International Response:
  • Qatar condemned the Israeli actions, labeling them "dangerous and irresponsible."
  • Vice President Vance to meet with oil executives about the ongoing energy crisis.

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2. Congressional Hearing with National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard ([02:00]–[04:32])

• State of Iran's Military:

  “Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options. Iran's strategic position has been significantly degraded.”
  — Tulsi Gabbard ([02:20])

• Intelligence vs. Policy:
  • Questions over whether Iran posed an "imminent nuclear threat."

    “It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and what is not an imminent threat.”
    — Tulsi Gabbard ([03:03])

  • Pushback from Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Warner over discrepancies in prepared vs. delivered statements regarding Iran’s enrichment capabilities.
  • Gabbard avoided directly contradicting the President, noting time constraints for omitted points ([03:58]).

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3. Manipulation of News by War Betters ([04:32]–[07:31])

• Case of Emmanuel Fabian:
  • Israeli war correspondent Emmanuel Fabian received coercive and threatening messages after reporting on a minor Iranian missile strike near Jerusalem.

    “...If you don't change your story, we're going to ruin your life.”
    — Will Oremus, recounting Fabian’s experience ([05:41])

  • The threats came from individuals who placed substantial bets on the outcome via Polymarket, a prediction market platform.
  • Fabian resisted changing his reporting, worried about ongoing extortion.

    “He said he was scared and his concern is that other journalists in the same situation might just take the offer rather than stare down a death threat.”
    — Will Oremus ([06:12])

• Risks of Prediction Markets:
  • Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi allow bets on sensitive, sometimes dangerous, real-world events, creating potential for news manipulation.

    “...it raises concerns about manipulation of markets and about whether people might actually try to change the news or the course of reality to match the things that they've bet on so that they will win.”
    — Will Oremus ([06:57])

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4. Legal and Regulatory Pushback on Prediction Markets ([07:17]–[08:22])

• Federal and State Oversight:
  • Kalshi, legal nationally, is facing state-level lawsuits and, notably, criminal charges in Arizona for allegedly violating gaming laws ([07:31]).
• Industry Perspective:

  “The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. ...Prediction markets are an antidote to [all the noise].”
  — Tarek Mansur, Kalshi co-founder ([08:09])

• Legislative Response:
  • Two Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to ban prediction markets involving military operations and sensitive government actions ([08:22]).

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5. March Madness: Iconic Underdog Stories ([08:22]–[11:25])

• 2023: Fairleigh Dickinson University’s Historic Upset

  • 16-seed FDU (with player Sean Moore) beat #1 Purdue.

    “Sean Moore ... scores 19 points, hits the biggest shot of the game ... what I believe is the biggest upset ever in the tournament.”
    — Joe Rexrode ([09:19])

• Loyola-Chicago: The Sister Jean Phenomenon

  • Sister Jean, a 100-year-old team chaplain, became a tournament darling.

    “He handed it [the Sword of Loyola] to her and she of course raised it over her head ... like a warrior in battle.”
    — Joe Rexrode ([10:52])

  • Player Lucas Williamson’s bond with Sister Jean spotlighted.

• Bracket Tips:

  "It's probably best to stick with the big names like Duke, Arizona, and Michigan... And as for a winner, Rexrode is going with the Arizona Wildcats."
  — Cecilia Ley ([11:25])

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6. Other Notable News Stories ([11:25]–[14:32])

• Cesar Chavez Abuse Allegations:
  • NYT published an investigation alleging sexual abuse by the late civil rights leader, corroborated by labor activist Dolores Huerta.

    “I have never identified myself as a victim, but I now understand that I am a survivor.”
    — Dolores Huerta in statement ([approx. 11:55])

• Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged:
  • Rate paused at 3.5%-3.75%; only one cut expected this year.
• Senegal Stripped of Africa Cup Title:
  • Following a chaotic match and protest by Senegal, tournament officials awarded the title to Morocco.

    “Now that moment has been taken away... the secretary general ... called the ruling quote, a shame for Africa.”
    — Cecilia Ley ([14:32])

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Memorable Quotes

• On Predictive Markets Impacting Journalism:

  “He said he was scared and his concern is that other journalists in the same situation might just take the offer rather than stare down a death threat.”
  — Will Oremus ([06:12])

• Kalshi’s Vision:

  “The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.”
  — Tarek Mansur ([08:09])

• On March Madness Upsets:

  “I think the Fairleigh Dickinson game is the most shocking game in tournament history.”
  — Joe Rexrode ([09:19])

• Dolores Huerta on Chavez’s Abuse:

  “I have never identified myself as a victim, but I now understand that I am a survivor.”
  — Dolores Huerta ([approx. 11:55])

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Key Timestamps

• Escalation in Middle East conflict: 00:05–02:00
• Intelligence hearing & Iran threat debate: 02:00–04:32
• Manipulation of war reporting via betting markets: 04:32–07:31
• Regulatory challenges to prediction markets: 07:17–08:22
• March Madness inspirational stories: 08:22–11:25
• Investigation into Cesar Chavez & other news: 11:25–14:32

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This episode brings together the high-stakes world of Middle East conflict reporting, the emerging influence and dangers of online betting markets, and some uplifting and sobering news from sports and social history, all in the fast-paced, fact-forward Apple News Today style.

Transcript

[Cecilia Ley]

Good morning. As strikes on key energy sites escalate, Trump's national intelligence director heads to Congress.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

The regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities.

[Cecilia Ley]

Gamblers betting on the conflict try to pressure a war correspondent to change his reporting. And March Madness is here. We'll speak to the athletic. It's Thursday, March 19th. I'm Cecilia Ley and this is Apple News Today. There were strikes on vital energy infrastructure in the Middle east yesterday, pushing up oil prices further and raising the prospect of more costly attacks in the days ahead. The South Parse gas field has been struck in what's been widely reported as an Israeli attack. It marks another moment of escalation. South Parse is no ordinary target. It's the largest gas field in the world and it serves as a lifeline for for Iran's domestic energy supply, making this attack a significant step up from simply targeting Iran's exports. Multiple news outlets reported that the US Was made aware of the strikes, but President Trump posted later that the administration knew nothing about it and that it would not happen again unless Iran attacked Qatar. For its part, Qatar condemned the strikes, accusing Israel of taking a dangerous and irresponsible step. Hours after Iran vowed retaliation, drones and missiles targeted energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. Some investors are concerned that this could lead to a domino effect of strikes that target major oil and gas centers in the Gulf. If these kinds of attacks continue, the consequences could be more serious than those of blocking shipments. Disruptions to production itself could take months or years to recover from. Vice President Vance is due to meet with oil executives today to discuss the ongoing crisis as the war shows no signs of slowing down. The Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, faced questions from Congress yesterday over the Trump administration's decision to bomb Iran in the first place. In her opening statement, Gabbard offered an update on the state of Iran's remaining force.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options. Iran's strategic position has been significantly degraded.

[Cecilia Ley]

Her testimony came one day after Joe Kent, the head of the National Counterterrorism center, quit in protest of the war. Kent is a longtime non interventionist and Trump's ally, and he said he was resigning due to disagreements with the administration's pursuit of this war, claiming Iran posed no imminent threat. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff pressed her on this yesterday. Was it the intelligence community's assessment that nevertheless, despite this obliteration, there was a, quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yes, or, no, it is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat.

[Cecilia Ley]

Okay, that is up. Here's the problem.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Based on a volume.

[Cecilia Ley]

No, it is.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

It is precisely that he received.

[Cecilia Ley]

It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to. To the United States. Gabbard largely stuck to the script, but there was one unexpected change for senators. The Washington Post noted that in Gabbard's written opening statement, which was published ahead of the hearing, she had been expected to say that Iran had made no efforts to rebuild their enrichment capability after last year's bombing. But at the hearing, she said Tehran was trying to recover from the severe damage of the operation. Mark Warner, the Senate Intelligence Committee's top Democrat, asked her about that discrepancy.

[Mark Warner]

You omitted that paragraph from your oral opening. Was that because the President said there was an imminent threat two weeks ago?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

No, sir. I recognize that the time was running long and I skipped through some of the portions.

[Mark Warner]

So you chose to. You chose to take my oral delivered remarks. You chose to omit the parts that contradict the President. The president continues to say as well that, you know, he had no idea it was shocked that the Iranians had moved to take over the Strait of Hormuz. Did you provide any intelligence that would say that it was not likely that the Iranians would try to move on the Strait?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

I'm not aware of those remarks.

[Cecilia Ley]

In recent days, Trump has expressed his surprise at the extent of Iran's retaliation. Gabbard wouldn't confirm if she had briefed Trump on the chances of Iran choking off oil supplies, and would only say he was provided with all the best objective intelligence available. The betting markets for real world events have exploded in popularity this past year, even as the world itself feels harder than ever to predict. But as one journalist discovered, the massive stakes in these markets can provoke threats, violence, and attempts to manipulate the truth. Earlier this week, the Times of Israel war correspondent Emmanuel Fabian published a story on an Iranian missile that hit a city near Jerusalem. It wasn't really a big story for him and no one was hurt. Yet a few days later, people started asking him to change his reporting, and

[Will Oremus]

he thought, okay, that's a little weird. Like, this was a missile that didn't hit anybody, didn't cause any injuries or damage. Why does anyone care about this?

[Cecilia Ley]

That's Washington Post reporter Will Oremus, who's been reporting on predictive markets and spoke to Emmanuel.

[Will Oremus]

And then the messages started getting a little more aggressive and a little more threatening, saying, if you don't change your story, we're going to ruin your life.

[Cecilia Ley]

After checking out the social media accounts behind the messages, Fabian realized they were coming from people who had placed bets on polymarket, a predictive marketplace that allows users to bet on the outcomes of future events. In this case, they had bet on whether a missile from Iran would hit Israel on March 10th. Millions of dollars were at stake for betters.

[Will Oremus]

Fabian told me that he actually did consider just going along with these people. Now, he ultimately said no. He said he worried that if he went along with it in this case, they would come back to him and continue extorting him again and again. And he also just didn't feel it was right. But he said he was scared and his concern is that other journalists in the same situation might just take the offer rather than stare down a death threat.

[Cecilia Ley]

Marketplaces like polymarket and Kalshi allow people to bet on any scenarios that people can come up with, from political assassinations to how many times Elon Musk will post on X. And they exist outside the regulatory realms of betting. But as Arimis told us, Emmanuel's story illustrates the major risks of all of this.

[Will Oremus]

There is no debating that a lot of people have taken a great interest in betting on all sorts of things, and it raises concerns about manipulation of markets and about whether people might actually try to change the news or the course of reality to match the things that they've bet on so that they will win.

[Cecilia Ley]

Federal regulators claim oversight over these markets and have so far largely allowed them to flourish with backing from the Trump administration. But some states are pushing back, with many noticing that these markets are exempt from their gambling taxes.

[Will Oremus]

Kalshi is legal in the United States for now, but many states have sued the site and in fact earlier this week the state of Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging that it was effectively operating a sportsbook and allowing betting on elections without a license and in violation of state law.

[Cecilia Ley]

Kalsh's co founder Tarek Mansur denies he's running a gambling firm and described Arizona's moves as a total overstep yesterday. In the past he has been clear about his ambitions to open any and all things to money making markets.

[Tarek Mansur]

The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. We are living in a world where like we have an abundance of information but there's a lot of noise and like we don't really understand what's real from what's not. And prediction markets are an antidote to

[Cecilia Ley]

that yesterday two Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to ban prediction markets on military operations and other sensitive government actions. The men's NCAA basketball tournament gets fully underway later today as 68 teams compete for the chance to head to the Final Four and lift the championship trophy in IND next month. This year's field, like last year's, is expected to be dominated by the sport's most elite teams. But they don't call it March Madness for nothing. Joe Rexrode, a senior writer at the Athletic, recently spoke to players from past tournaments whose lower seeded teams made improbable Cinderella runs. For his retrospective story, he interviewed Sean Moore, who played for the 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson University team from New Jersey which had a stunning defeat over the top seeded Purdue in 2023.

[Joe Rexrode]

I think the Fairleigh Dickinson game is the most shocking game in tournament history. Sean Moore was the guy, Purdue said, okay, well this is who you have Zach Edey, their 74 center, because he can't shoot and so he's in his hometown. The tournament game is in Columbus. He has all kinds of family and friends in the stands. And Sean Moore in this game scores 19 points, hits the biggest shot of the game with about a minute left, a three pointer at the top of the key, and also at one point out battles Zach Edey for a rebound. It's a pretty amazing story to be able to do that in front of his family and friends and again, what I believe is the biggest upset ever in the tournament.

[Cecilia Ley]

Moore is now playing pro basketball in Tbilisi, Georgia, where Rexroad says he's grown fond of the local food there. Another unlikely run came from Loyola University in Chicago. Their team's chaplain, Sister Jean Delore Schmidt, made national headline and became a darling of the tournament for a consistent presence on the sidelines. Loyola's run began with a dramatic first round win over Miami.

[Joe Rexrode]

Timeout. They don't take it.

[Cecilia Ley]

He got it. He got the buzzer. And the Ramblers are moving on. Lucas Williamson was the star freshman on that team who made a crucial steal to set up that buzzer beater. That team would make it all the way to the Final Four. Off the court, however, Rex Rhodes said Sister Jean and Williamson developed a special relationship.

[Joe Rexrode]

He got really close with Sister Jean to the point where she got the most distinguished faculty award you can get at Loyola, which is the Sword of Loyola, which he said, it's like a big heavy sword. And so he presented this to Sister Jean. I believe she was 100 at that point and he was like a little worried, like I don't know. Like, I mean, she's 100. Like, should I hand her the sword? Should we do something different? Well, he handed it to her and she of course raised it over her head like, like he said, like a, you know, a warrior in battle. So, so he had that relationship with her and he had an amazing college career.

[Cecilia Ley]

Williamson currently plays for the NBA's G League windy City Bulls. Meanwhile, if you're filling out your bracket last minute and looking for some tips, Rex Rhodes says it's probably best to stick with the big names like Duke, Arizona and Michigan. And as for a winner, Rex Road is going with the Arizona Wildcats. And finally, a few other stories we're following In a stunning investigation published yesterday, the New York Times reported that the late Latino civil rights icon Cesar Chavez had groomed and sexually abused women who worked with him during the 1960s farm worker movement, as well as two underage girls in the 1970s. The publication's findings were based on interviews with more than 60 people, including 95 year old Dolores Huerta, a labor rights activist, a legend in her own right who had organized alongside Chavez. In a statement released on Wednesday, Huerta revealed that she was sexually abused by Chavez, which resulted in pregnancies that she kept secret for six decades out of concern that the revelations would hurt the farm worker movement. In her statement, Huerta said, quote, I have never identified myself as a victim, but I now understand that I am a survivor. Chavez's family released a statement saying they were devastated by the investigation and commended survivors for coming forward, adding that they carried their own memories of his life and contributions as well. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, the second consecutive pause from the central bank this year. Fed policymakers said that the country's economic concerns remains elevated, adding that it was too soon to make a judgment on the impact from the war in Iran. The decision was expected. Fed committee members left the federal funds rate, or what banks charge each other for short term loans, at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. They also said they expect to cut rates just once this year in line with expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he would remain on the board as the Justice Department continues its criminal probe into renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters. In an unprecedented reversal that shocked the sport of professional soccer. Senegal's national team was stripped of its Africa cup title this week, with authorities declaring Morocco their opponent from a final game in January as the new champion. During that match, Senegal players left the field for about 17 minutes to protest when a referee awarded Morocco a game deciding penalty. Commotion ensued as crowds of fans brawled and tried to storm the field. When the game eventually resumed, Morocco missed the penalty and Senegal went on to win in extra time.

[Joe Rexrode]

Senegal thrust forward Popque. Sensational Stella Supreme Senegal maybe an extra time. They've produced the moment.

[Cecilia Ley]

Now that moment has been taken away. Citing tournament regulations, judges from the Confederation of African Football said that the Senegalese team's refusal to play during protest provided grounds for them to be eliminated from the competition. The secretary general of the Senegalese Football Federation said that the organization will file an appeal, calling the ruling quote, a shame for Africa. You can find all these stories and more in the Apple News app. And if you're already listening in the News app right now, we've got a narrated article. Coming up next, Scientific American reports on the surprising studies that show the various ways young people are doing better than previous generations. If you're listening in the podcast app, follow Apple News Narrated to find that story. And I'll be back with the news tomorrow.