What the Fed’s latest decision reveals about the U.S. economy

Summary

Podcast Summary: Apple News Today

Episode: What the Fed’s latest decision reveals about the U.S. economy
Host: Shumita Basu
Date: January 29, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Apple News Today centers on the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady amidst political pressure, what it signals about the U.S. economy, and outgoing Chair Jerome Powell’s reflections on America’s financial and political landscape. The episode further covers U.S. foreign policy maneuvers in Venezuela, ongoing consequences of the January 6th Capitol attack, and a surprising surge in demand for beans.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Federal Reserve’s January 2026 Decision

• Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady
  • The central bank voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates at 3.5–3.75%.
  • Economic indicators show stability: steady expansion, low but stabilized unemployment, persistent inflation (slightly above the 2% target).
  • Host Shumita Basu underscores that Wall Street wasn’t surprised:

    “The decision matched Wall Street's expectations, and among the Fed's voting members, there was less division than previous decisions.” [02:01]

• Powell’s Perspective on Inflation and Tariffs
  • Powell points to tariffs as the source of price increases rather than excess demand, seeing them as a one-time price bump:

    “Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs … if it weren’t from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand. … That’s a harder problem to solve.” — Jerome Powell [01:43-01:54]

• Heightened Political Pressure and Powell’s Advice to Successor
  • Powell faced DOJ investigations and political threats but remained focused on monetary policy.
  • He urges his successor to keep the Fed independent:

    “Stay out of elected politics. Don’t get pulled into elected politics. Don’t do it.” — Jerome Powell [04:16]

2. Shifting Global Economic Landscape

• Dollar Weakness and Geopolitics
  • The dollar hits a four-year low amid global jitters, Trump's saber-rattling over Greenland, and growing investor movement into gold.
  • Trump claims, “the dollar was doing great,” leading to speculation about deliberate “weak dollar” policy.
  • Senator Chris Coons warns:

    “When you have that much debt, I think stability of the currency probably trumps exports.” [03:39]

3. U.S. Military Intervention and Congressional Oversight in Venezuela

• Operation Against Maduro
  • Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds its first public hearing on the operation to oust Venezuelan President Maduro.
  • Lawmakers from both parties question the executive branch’s lack of consultation with Congress.
• Rubio Justifies Actions
  • Senator Marco Rubio positions the operation as a law enforcement action, not an act of war:

    “It's hard for us to conceive that an operation … was a law enforcement operation to capture someone we don’t recognize as the head of state …” — Senator Marco Rubio [07:15]

• Skepticism and Critique
  • Senator Rand Paul remains unconvinced:

    “Would it be an act of war if someone did it to us? Nobody dies, few casualties. … Of course it would be an act of war.” — Senator Rand Paul [07:42]

  • Senator Chris Coons emphasizes the need for Congressional consultation:

    “Consulting with Congress is not just some high minded principle … it’s a got to have.” — Senator Chris Coons [08:11]

4. January 6 Pardon Fallout

• Request for Restitution Refunds
  • Some pardoned January 6 rioters are suing for the return of fines and restitution.
  • Beth Reinhard (Washington Post):

    “Some of them began filing motions to get financial penalties … back. … Others are filing lawsuits in which they’re seeking millions of dollars.” [09:37]

  • Precedent cited from a 2017 Supreme Court ruling by Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

    “You have these January 6th defendants … relying … on a ruling this liberal icon wrote before her death.” — J. O'Brien [10:39]

  • Two judges have approved such returns, five have not—with those denials being appealed.
• Legislative Pushback
  • Democratic senators propose legislation to stop these payouts, supported by law enforcement.

    “Taxpayers are going to be more and more on the hook for paying for what happened on January 6th.” — Beth Reinhard [11:29]

5. News Briefs

• Border Agents and ICE Officers on Leave
  • Updates on Minneapolis shooting investigations and Georgia election office raids tied to Trump's 2020 election claims.
• Bean Club Phenomenon
  • Surge in demand for Rancho Gordo beans: 30,000 on waitlist, response to health trends and economic uncertainty.

    “It’s one of those stories about being in the right place at the right time, where the health discourse and the current economic picture meet.” — Shemitah Basu [12:41]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Powell on Tariffs and Demand:
  “Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs and that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand. … That's a harder problem to solve.” — Jerome Powell [01:43]

• Independence of the Fed:
  “Stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics. Don't do it.” — Jerome Powell [04:16]

• Congressional Ire Over Venezuela Operation:
  “If a foreign country bombed our air defense missiles, captured and removed our president and blockaded our country, would that be considered an act of war?” — Senator Rand Paul [07:05]

• On January 6 Restitution Refuge:
  “Taxpayers are going to be more and more on the hook for paying for what happened on January 6th. And the folks who wrecked the Capitol … their burden is decreasing.” — Beth Reinhard [11:29]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Fed Decision & Outlook: 00:05–02:53
• Global Dollar Concerns: 02:53–03:54
• Powell’s Tenure & Advice: 03:54–04:31
• Venezuela Congressional Hearing: 04:31–08:23
• January 6 Restitution Fights: 08:23–11:43
• News in Brief (Minneapolis, Georgia, Beans): 11:43–end

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Episode Tone

Shumita Basu’s delivery is measured, clear, and factual, with a calm tone that respects the gravity of the topics, often emphasizing the “extraordinary times” of American politics and economics.

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This summary should provide a comprehensive overview for listeners seeking a detailed yet accessible guide to the episode’s main themes and discussions.

Transcript

[Shemitah Basu]

Good morning. Some encouraging news as the Fed resists Trump pressure and hold steady.

[Jerome Powell]

Essentially, the economy has once again surprised us with its strength, not for the first time.

[Shemitah Basu]

But as Jerome Powell prepares to step down as chair, he had some pointed advice for his eventual successor. The Washington Post explains why some pardoned January 6th rioters want taxpayer compensation and what makes tens of thousands of people join a wait list for beans. It's Thursday, January 29th. I'm Shemitah Basu. This is Apple News. Today, Only weeks after being threatened with DOJ investigations by the Trump administration, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took to the podium yesterday. This time to present some cautiously optimistic news. The committee voted 10 to 2 in favor of holding interest rates in the 3.5 to 3.75% range. Powell noted there had been clear improvement in the outlook for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.

[Jerome Powell]

The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization and inflation remains somewhat elevated.

[Shemitah Basu]

So for now, the economy is continuing to go through a period of what's being called low fire, low. Higher inflation, meanwhile, continues above the 2% target. Powell pointed to tariffs as a reason things are getting more expensive, but he sounded relatively relaxed that they would not lead to wider sustained inflation.

[Jerome Powell]

Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs and that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand. And, and you know, that's, that's a harder problem to solve. We do think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one time price increase.

[Shemitah Basu]

The decision matched Wall Street's expectations, and among the Fed's voting members, there was less division than previous decisions. One analyst joked it was ultimately a very boring meeting during very extraordinary times. Those extraordinary times are surely a reference to Powell's recent remarks criticizing the Trump administration for serving him with subpoenas as they investigate the costs of a building renovation, something Powell believes is a pretense to intimidate the. Yesterday, he largely avoided getting into that, but he was asked about his appearance at Fed Governor Lisa Cook's Supreme Court case in which she's challenging Trump's attempts to fire her.

[Jerome Powell]

I would say that that case is perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history. And I, as I thought about it, I thought it might be hard to explain why I didn't attend.

[Shemitah Basu]

Amid Powell's assessment, there's been some broader economic shifts in recent weeks worth paying attention to, many investors feeling skittish about the security of the dollar have been turning to gold, which has been on a record breaking run following Trump's threats over Greenland and broader geopolitical uncertainty. The dollar meanwhile, has been at a four year low, which can make imports more expensive and increase costs when traveling abroad. On the other hand, it can also boost exports and shrink trade deficits. This week, Trump said the dollar was doing great, prompting speculation that he was deliberately following a policy of we Goldman Sachs vice chairman warned on Bloomberg that declining global confidence in the dollar could ultimately create risks for the US it.

[Senator Chris Coons]

Is true a weaker dollar boosts exports. However, the United States has 39 trillion of debt on its way to 40 trillion-plus and when you have that much debt, I think stability of the currency probably trumps exports.

[Shemitah Basu]

The bigger economic picture will not be Powell's concern for much longer as his term expires in May. There's been much speculation about whether pick a successor who's more aligned with the president's priorities, though picking someone who will simply follow Trump's lead carries the risk of spooking the markets. When asked yesterday about his advice for the next person to fill his shoes.

[Jerome Powell]

Powell offered this stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics. Don't do it.

[Shemitah Basu]

For the first time yesterday, lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee got a chance to ask Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the administration's military operation that ousted Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine made an early comment about how long it's taken since the US first launched strikes on alleged drug boats to get a hearing on the books.

[Senator Chris Coons]

Next week is five months. Finally a public hearing. Wow, how novel. Finally a public hearing in the Senate or House. This is the first public hearing we've had.

[Shemitah Basu]

Rubio was called before the committee to answer questions about the mission and why the administration acted without consulting or seeking approval from Congress. The situation around Venezuela remains tense. An American blockade around the country and US Pressure over the future of the country's oil reserves has placed Interim President Delsey Rodriguez in a precarious position. Rodriguez is a veteran of Maduro's government, not an opposition leader, and recent US Intelligence reports raised concerns about her willingness to cooperate while abandoning ties with Russia and China. For her part, Rodriguez has shown more resistance to the US in recent days, publicly at least, Washington, Sobre Politico and Venezuela. She said the country had had enough of Washington's orders to Venezuelan politicians and demanded Venezuelans resolve their internal politics. Rubio repeated the administration's reasoning behind opposing Maduro and spoke about what officials hope will come next.

[Senator Marco Rubio]

It was an untenable situation and it had to be addressed. And it was addressed. And now the question becomes what happens moving forward? The end state here is we want to reach a phase of transition where we are left with a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela and democratic in which all elements of society are represented in free and fair elections.

[Shemitah Basu]

He also said the U. S will deposit funds from oil sales into an account that it would oversee, ensuring the revenue will be used for basic services like police and health care to stabilize the country. Over the nearly three hour hearing, Rubio also clashed with senators over the administration's insistence that capturing Maduro was a law enforcement operation and therefore, as the administration argues, not in need of congressional approval. Committee member Senator Rand Paul broke from his Republican colleagues as he expressed heavy skepticism.

[Senator Rand Paul]

If a foreign country bombed our air defense missiles, captured and removed our president and blockaded our country, would that be considered an act of war?

[Senator Marco Rubio]

So I will point to two things. The first is it's hard for us to conceive that an operation that lasted about four and a half hours and was a law enforcement operation to capture someone we don't recognize as the head of state indicted in the United States wanted with a 50 million dollar question.

[Senator Rand Paul]

Would be if it only took four hours to take our president very short, nobody dies on the other side, Nobody dies on our side. It's perfect. Would it be an act of war?

[Senator Marco Rubio]

We just don't believe that this operation comes anywhere close to the constitutional definition.

[Senator Rand Paul]

Of would it be an act of war if someone did it to us? Nobody dies, few casualties. They're in and out. Of course it would be an act of war.

[Shemitah Basu]

And here's another exchange where this came up with Democratic Senator Corporate Chris Coons.

[Senator Chris Coons]

We were told that military action to remove Maduro was not on the table, that the campaign to try and deter drug trafficking was not going to include the exact military action that followed. Yet it was being rehearsed. If there was time to practice, there was time to consult. And consulting with Congress is not just some high minded principle, not some abstract thing. Not a nice to have, it's a got to have.

[Shemitah Basu]

Rubio declined to rule out further military action in Venezuela or specify when a transition of government and elections would take place. He also urged lawmakers to have patience and promised that progress is being made. When President Trump took office for the second time last year, he pardoned more than 1500 people charged or convicted with crimes related to the January 6th attack on the Capitol in an effort to recast the insurrectionists as victims. Five years later, some still believe they were in the right that day, like Jacob Lang, who spoke with ABC News's J. O' Brien earlier this month.

[Senator Chris Coons]

The first battle of the second American Revolution was January 6, 2020. But can you understand how.

[J. O'Brien]

How that.

[Senator Chris Coons]

Can you understand how a comment like that can cause violence, can incite violence? Would you have told that to George Washington?

[Shemitah Basu]

Now, some of those pardoned who paid financial penalties for their actions are asking the federal government for their money back. Beth Reinhard is a reporter with the Washington Post, and she told us about some of these defendants immediately.

[Beth Reinhard]

Some of them began filing motions to get financial penalties that they had paid as part of their sentence to get that money back. And then others are filing lawsuits in which they're seeking millions of dollars.

[Shemitah Basu]

According to a tally from the Washington Post, defendants were sentenced to over a million dollars in restitution and fines and are believed to have cumulatively caused more than $3 million in damage. Reinhart said that at least two cases of people arguing to get their penalty money back have been successful.

[Beth Reinhard]

Judges have said, yes, these defendants should get their money back. So two different judges have agreed with those claims. And then, as far as we know, there are five others who have been denied that money back, and those people are appealing those decisions.

[Shemitah Basu]

One of the surprising arguments some of these defendants are relying on is a ruling from none other than former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

[J. O'Brien]

The defendants who are arguing that they're entitled to these refunds are pointing to a 2017 case, so not that long ago, in which a Colorado woman who was initially convicted of sexually abusing her children was later acquitted. She had paid $700. And because the case had been dismissed, she did get her $700 back. And that was an opinion written by Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So you have these January 6th defendants relying or leaning on a rul, this liberal icon wrote before her death.

[Shemitah Basu]

Two Democratic senators are pushing for legislation to block these kinds of payouts with the support of some law enforcement officers. Otherwise, the balance of burden for the damage that day could shift to people who were not involved at all.

[Beth Reinhard]

Taxpayers are going to be more and more on the hook for paying for what happened on January 6th. And the folks who wrecked the Capitol.

[J. O'Brien]

Who broke the windows, who broke the.

[Beth Reinhard]

Doors, increasingly, their burden is decreasing.

[Shemitah Basu]

Of the more than $1 million defendants were ordered to pay in fines, the government has only collected less than 700,000. And finally, a few other stories we're following. The two Border Patrol agents who shot and killed Alex Preddy in Minneapolis are on administrative leave. A spokesperson for Homeland Security said the move is standard practice and also confirmed the same is true for the ICE officer who shot Renee Good. An investigation into Preddy's death is currently being led by the Department of Homeland Security with the support of the FBI. Attorney General Pam Bondi was in Minneapolis on Wednesday as more than a dozen people were charged on accusations of impeding or assaulting federal officers. Meanwhile, in Georgia, the FBI raided the election offices of Fulton County, a key battleground area at the center of President Trump's debunked claims that the 2020 election was rigged. Agents arrived with trucks and hauled away ballots and other materials from that election. The Atlanta Journal Constitution reviewed the warrant, which included voting machines, voter rolls and tabulator tapes as part of the materials the agency is seeking. Former President Joe Biden was declared the winner in Fulton county after separate counts of the nearly 5 million votes and numerous challenges from Trump allies were thrown out of court. Several prominent elected Republicans in Georgia, including outgoing governor Brian Kemp, have said the election was not stolen from Trump. And finally, one of the oldest and humblest food staples in the world, beans, have been around for millennia. And while they don't seem glamorous, one grower in the US has recently shown that they are having a mom. Right now, nearly 30,000 people are on a wait list to join this so called bean club and pay for quarterly shipments. The Wall Street Journal reports that this company, Rancho Gordo, purveyors of dozens of types of dried beans, has seen sales triple since 2019 as part of a larger, almost insatiable demand for more fiber and protein in the American diet, which beans are packed with at a low price. It's one of those stories about being in the right place at the right time, where the health discourse and the current economic picture meet. You can find all these stories and more in the Apple News app. And if you're already listening in the News app right now, we've got a narrated article coming up next. New York Magazine reports from the ground in Minneapolis about how residents in the city are confronting ICE agents. If you're listening in the podcast app, follow Apple News plus narrated to find that story. And I'll be back with the news tomorrow.