A (2:59)

2019, the Lebanese government has called for a ceasefire and asked the US And European nations to intervene. But El Shyama told us that neither the US Nor Israel have shown any appetite for those talks. Many are concerned that a protracted war with Lebanon will result in a refugee crisis and rising oil prices. Public schools are currently being used as shelters. El Shayama told us about one displaced mother he spoke to when the war began.

D (3:27)

A woman. Unfortunately, she was sleeping on the sidewalk because she doesn't have anywhere to go. She told me that, you know, my son is around 2 years old. All he knows is displacement. When the first war in 2024 happened, he was a few months old. He was displaced with her. Now they're displaced again. It's not really a great place to raise K.

A (3:57)

One energy agency put it plainly. We're experiencing the single largest disruption to oil supplies in history. That's what's leading to major uncertainty in the markets as analysts try to figure out just how damaging this war could be for the US and global economy. Yesterday, the new supreme Leader, Moshebah Khamenei, provided a written statement pledging to keep the vital Strait of Hormuz closed, which gave the markets little optimism.

B (4:24)

So essentially, the new leader sounded a note of defiance. And what this suggests is that they are not ready to quit in this fight.

A (4:33)

David Uberti covers markets and the economy for the Wall Street Journal.

B (4:37)

President Trump has said that he could end this war at any time. But he's not the only person who has a vote in when this war ends. Iran has shown that it has the capability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz. It has struck tankers across the region. It has raised the cost of shipping in a huge, huge way. And the tanker owners who actually operate the ships that carry crude oil, that becomes your my gasoline or diesel. They don't want to take the risk of being hit by a missile, being hit by a drone, being hit by a naval mine or an Iranian submarine,

A (5:10)

which is exactly what happened on Wednesday night when Iran attacked tankers off the coast of Iraq. And now there's reports that Iran has begun laying mines to further deter other tankers. At the same time, other major exporters like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait have shut down some of their oil fields, meaning the supply chain will be further disrupted. This means markets are having to prepare for the long haul.

B (5:35)

Major forecasters from the US Government to major banks, other people in the private sector, they foresee these higher prices to linger even after the end of the conflict. So the actual impact that you'll see at the pump with your gasoline prices, your diesel prices, the price for jet fuel which dictates your airfares, that could be all higher. Even after the war with Iran ends.

A (6:00)

The situation is so unpredictable that markets have see sawed in response to any signal from the White House. Stocks rebounded when Trump said the war was, quote, very complete, only to hear him say something different hours later. Administration officials have also inadvertently caused havoc in the markets with their social media posts.

B (6:20)

So the other day, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, he puts out a tweet that says something to the effect of the US Navy has successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. And if that were true, that would be a huge sea change in the outlook for this conflict. That would suggest that the huge risks that a lot of these tanker owners are experiencing are quickly dissipating. And within minutes, that tweet disappeared.

A (6:45)

Wright subsequently apologized for the wrong information and the Energy Department said it was put out by mistake, but the post was up long enough to have real world impact.

B (6:54)

But what that sort of episode goes to show is that markets are moving right now. In each individual headline, each bit of information that comes out that makes it suggests this war might last longer, it might be ending shorter. That has a huge potential for altering the shape of the oil market.

A (7:11)

On Thursday, Trump seemed to brush aside the issue, saying on Truth Social that when oil prices go up, the US Makes a lot of money. That's because the US Is the biggest oil producer in the world. Uberti says it puts the country in an enviable position in this war so far. But that could all change.

B (7:31)

I would say right now we are at peak uncertainty. If the conflict goes on longer, things could continue to rise. And so it's just a question of duration at this point. If there isn't a resolution to this conflict in a month or even two months, that could pose a serious threat to the economic outlook for the US and the world.

A (8:00)

The 98th Academy Awards are this Sunday, and while there are plenty of neck and neck competitions to follow, one in particular is going to dominate the night. Ryan Coogler's vampire musical historical epic Sinners vs. Paul Thomas Anderson's political action comedy, One Battle after Another. Sinners scored a record breaking 16 Oscar nominations, and One Battle after Another has been the front runner all season long. This week in conversation, guest host Sam Sanders spoke to Katie Rich, the awards editor for the entertainment newsletter the Ankler and host of the podcast Prestige Junkie. They talk about all things Oscars, including the matchup between Sinners in One battle after Another One of the closest races in years.

C (8:46)

They're from the same studio, which is totally fascinating. Sinners is the bigger box office hit. It's got more nominations. There are so many things working in its favor. If you're putting Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson head to head, they're both great filmmakers. Paul Thomas Anderson's been in the business longer, he's older, he has that kind of sense of being overdue. So I think it's a fascinating head to head thing.

A (9:06)

Rich noted that this year, bigger budget movies are leading the races after the indie film Honora won best picture last year. Another toss up Rich is watching closely is the best actor competition between Michael B. Jordan, who played twin brothers and sinners, and Timothy Chalamet, who starred as a ping pong playing hustler in Marty Supreme. It's Jordan's first Oscar nomination and Chalamet's third for actor.

C (9:31)

Michael B. Jordan has been a star for such a long time and has really never had a moment of recognition like this. So as you have this sinner surge happening in the meantime, Timothee Chalamet, who's nominated for Marty supreme, he's been the presumed frontrunner all season, and then he doesn't win at BAFTA or Actor awards. And then right as Oscar voting closes, starts a war with the worlds of opera and ballet with some offhand comments he made in an interview.

A (9:54)

I don't want to be working in ballet or opera or, you know, things

B (9:58)

where it's like, hey, keep this thing alive.

A (10:00)

Even though no one cares about this anymore. All respect to the ballet and opera people out there.

B (10:05)

I just lost 14 cents in viewership.

A (10:07)

That interview raised eyebrows and went viral after Oscar voting closed. So Rich doubts it'll have a big impact. But it does reflect how the mood around Chalamet's chances has shifted. Another thing she'll be watching closely on Sunday, a new award to honor casting directors for the first time. Rich says it's a deserved award that's been a long time coming.

C (10:30)

Casting directors have worked with everybody. You know, they're, anytime you interview a casting director, they're like, oh, I auditioned them 10 years ago and they weren't right for this. And then I brought them back for this thing. And actors love them because they are their advocates throughout so many different things. So it's this chance for these, like real legends in the business who have built up so much goodwill to finally win an Oscar.

A (10:52)

This year's Oscars come at a period of transition for the awards ceremony, which recently signed a broadcast deal with YouTube. It's also a moment of transition for the film industry overall. Warner Brothers, the company that produced Sinners in One Battle After Another, was acquired by Paramount following a high profile bidding war which is still pending and faces regulatory scrutiny. For more of the conversation between Katie Rich and Sam Sanders, stay tuned at the end of this episode. And finally, a few other stories we're following. There were back to back incidents of targeted violence yesterday. On Thursday morning, a shooter opened fire in a lecture hall at Old Dominion University in Virginia, killing one person and injuring two others. The alleged gunman, Mohammed Jalo, was killed during the incident and had a previous conviction for providing support to isis. Police confirmed they're investigating it as an act of terrorism. Later the same day, in an unrelated incident, an armed attacker rammed his vehicle into a Michigan synagogue. No one was injured and the suspect, Ayman Mohammed Ghazali, was shot by security officers. Ghazali was a naturalized US Citizen and was born in Lebanon. Federal investigators said they were treating it as an attack on the Jewish community, but stressed they had yet to determine what drove him to action. It seems South Carolina's longest serving congressman isn't done yet. On Thursday, 85 year old U.S. representative Jim Clyburn announced he's running again, ending months of speculation about his congressional future. Clyburn has represented South Carolina's 6th district for over three decades and told Democratic leaders at their state party headquarters that he feels, quote, equipped and healthy enough to tackle another term. He is one of 12 Congress members over the age of 80 who are seeking re election this year. Clyburn is the most powerful Democrat in South Carolina. Democrats looking to run for President in 2028 are already courting his endorsement. Sunday night's Academy Awards will answer some burning questions. Who will win Best Actor, Best Picture? But it will also answer this long suffering question, will songwriter Diane Warren continue being the most consistent loser in Oscar history? Warren has been nominated 17 times for best Original Song and is responsible for nominated hits like Celine Dion's because youe Loved Me and How Do I Live from the film Con Air. And of course, everyone knows Armageddon's signature Aerosmith jam, don't Wanna Close My Eyes, I don't wanna fall Asleep, Cause I miss you baby and I Don't wanna Miss a Thing. This year, she's no Dear Me, a song from Relentless, a documentary about Warren's career. But Vox Media and others say it's looking unlikely that it will be Warren's first Oscar win. Odds are in favor of the Earworm golden from K Pop Demon Hunters. So maybe next year, Diane, you can find all these stories and more in the Apple news app. And if you're already listening in the news app, that Apple News in Conversation episode with Katie Rich is coming up next.

C (14:24)

Next.

A (14:25)

And I'll be back with the news on Monday.