Podcast Summary: Ask Haviv Anything
Episode 24: With Iran Down, Turkey Steps into the Breach - A Conversation with Dr. Khay Eitan Cohen Yanaroczak
Release Date: June 26, 2025
Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Guest: Dr. Khay Eitan Cohen Yanaroczak, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University
Introduction and Dedications
The episode opens with Haviv Rettig Gur acknowledging the recent end of the Israel-Iran war and its immediate repercussions in the region. He dedicates the episode to Aviva Tzili of Kibbutz Nir Oz, who tragically lost his life in the conflict, highlighting the personal and communal losses endured.
Shifting Regional Dynamics Post-War
Haviv Gur sets the stage by discussing the immediate aftermath of the war, noting how Turkey is positioning itself in the power vacuum left by Iran's diminished influence. He introduces his guest, Dr. Khay Eitan Cohen Yanaroczak, an expert on Turkey and Turkish affairs, to delve deeper into these developments.
Turkey's Changing Role in the Middle East
Dr. Yanaroczak provides a comprehensive overview of the Middle East's power dynamics before and after the war. He outlines the pre-war influential players, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Gulf countries aligned through the Abraham Accords.
"The Israeli Defense Forces, through sophisticated operations, significantly altered the balance of power in the Middle East within just 12 days." [03:38]
He emphasizes that Turkey, under President Erdogan, is now emerging as a dominant military power alongside Israel. The relationship between Israel and Turkey is described as increasingly complex and adversarial.
Turkey's Growing Militarization and Threat Perception
Rachel Gur probes into Turkey's aggressive stance, particularly Erdogan's vocal opposition to Israel and the recent announcements about building a massive missile arsenal.
"We should be worried." [07:10]
Dr. Yanaroczak confirms the concern, explaining that Turkey's foreign policy has shifted towards a more antagonistic stance against Israel. He cites Turkey's declaration of Israel as a national security threat and its motivations rooted in historical and ideological contexts.
Historical Context of Israeli-Turkish Relations
The conversation transitions to the historical relationship between Israel and Turkey. Haviv Gur reminisces about past positive interactions, such as his personal experiences in Turkey, contrasting sharply with the current tension.
Dr. Yanaroczak attributes the deterioration to a gradual shift influenced by recurring conflicts in Gaza and strategic political maneuvers within Turkey. He highlights the role of Turkish media and political strategies in fostering anti-Israel sentiments.
"Anti-Israel criticism has turned into a public consensus between pro-government and anti-government circles in Turkey." [16:27]
Erdogan's Ideological Agenda and Neo-Ottomanism
Rachel Gur raises concerns about Erdogan's affiliations with the Muslim Brotherhood and the potential for Turkey to mimic the Arab world's politicization around Israel.
Dr. Yanaroczak elaborates on the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) roots in Islamist ideology, tracing back to the Welfare Party and its influences from the Muslim Brotherhood. He explains Erdogan's vision of "neo-Ottomanism," aiming to revive Turkey's historical influence across former Ottoman territories.
"Erdogan is pushing for a pan-Islamic alliance, proposing an 'Islamic army' akin to NATO." [43:15]
He discusses Turkey's military involvements in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan, emphasizing the lack of withdrawal from these territories and the establishment of permanent military bases.
Potential for Future Military Conflict
Haviv Gur assesses the military capabilities of Turkey compared to Israel, noting Turkey's significant naval strength and larger army. He questions the likelihood of a military confrontation in the coming decades.
Dr. Yanaroczak warns of Turkey's strategic positioning, especially its dominance in Syria and potential alliances with other Muslim-majority nations. He underscores the complexity of addressing Turkey as an adversary due to its NATO membership and strategic alliances.
"Turkey is putting itself into a gray zone, making it difficult for Israel to decisively act against it." [38:32]
Erdogan's Vision and Regional Alliance Building
Rachel Gur connects Erdogan's actions to broader Islamist ideologies, suggesting that Turkey is positioning itself as a leader in the Islamic world, reviving caliphate ideals.
Dr. Yanaroczak confirms this trajectory, pointing out Erdogan's efforts to create an "Islamic alliance" and extend Turkish influence through regional summits and military collaborations.
"Turkey is seeking to represent all Muslim nations in international bodies like the United Nations Security Council." [43:15]
He highlights the implications of Turkey potentially leading a coalition that could challenge Israel's strategic position in the Mediterranean and beyond.
Strategy and Recommendations for Israel
Dr. Yanaroczak advises Israel to enhance its global communication strategies, particularly in the Turkish language, to counteract Turkish propaganda and misinformation.
"Israel should consider forming its own media channels, similar to Russia Today or CNN, to effectively communicate its narrative." [54:49]
He stresses the importance of internalizing this as a national security goal, emphasizing proactive measures to mitigate the evolving threat posed by Turkey's regional aspirations.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Haviv Gur reflects on the conversation, acknowledging the gravity of Turkey's shifting role and the potential long-term implications for Israel and the broader Middle East. He underscores the significance of strategic alliances like the Abraham Accords in counterbalancing Turkey's neo-Ottoman ambitions.
Dr. Yanaroczak reiterates his personal affection for Turkey while maintaining a professional concern over its current foreign policy trajectory. He calls for Israel to stay vigilant and adaptive in addressing emerging regional challenges.
"The agenda of Turkey's neo-Ottomanism poses a complex and evolving threat that Israel must strategically navigate." [59:41]
Key Takeaways
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Shift in Regional Power Dynamics: The end of the Israel-Iran war has significantly altered the Middle East's power structure, with Turkey emerging as a key military and political player.
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Turkey's Neo-Ottomanism: Under Erdogan, Turkey is actively seeking to revive its historical influence across former Ottoman territories, fostering alliances and establishing military bases in strategic regions.
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Growing Israeli-Turkish Tensions: Historical ties have soured due to recurring conflicts in Gaza and Turkey's increasingly antagonistic stance towards Israel, fueled by nationalist and Islamist ideologies.
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Media and Propaganda: Turkey utilizes state media to propagate anti-Israel sentiments, positioning Israel as a central adversary to rally domestic support and suppress political dissent.
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Strategic Recommendations for Israel: Enhancing global communication channels, particularly in languages like Turkish, and leveraging existing alliances (e.g., Abraham Accords) are crucial for countering Turkey's regional ambitions.
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Long-term Implications: The potential for future military confrontations exists, necessitating proactive and strategic planning by Israel to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Notable Quotes
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Dr. Yanaroczak: "The Israeli Defense Forces first of all put an end to Hezbollah. We managed to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah and this created a kind of a domino effect." [03:38]
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Rachel Gur: "It seems to have gone beyond rhetoric to action. And should we be worried?" [07:10]
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Dr. Yanaroczak: "Anti-Israel criticism has turned into a public consensus between pro-government and anti-government circles in Turkey." [16:27]
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Dr. Yanaroczak: "Turkey is seeking to represent all Muslim nations in international bodies like the United Nations Security Council." [43:15]
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Dr. Yanaroczak: "Israel should consider forming its own media channels, similar to Russia Today or CNN, to effectively communicate its narrative." [54:49]
Conclusion
Episode 24 of Ask Haviv Anything provides a deep dive into the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, highlighting Turkey's rising influence and its implications for Israel. Through insightful analysis and expert perspectives, Haviv Rettig Gur and Dr. Khay Eitan Cohen Yanaroczak explore the intricate dynamics of regional power shifts, ideological battles, and strategic alliances that will shape the future of the Middle East for decades to come.