Ask Haviv Anything – Episode 50

Hostage Deal: A New Day for Gaza, a Bad Day for Hamas
Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Date: October 9, 2025

Overview

In this special “fast comment” episode, Haviv Rettig Gur delves into the historic hostage deal that marks a dramatic turning point in the Israel-Gaza conflict. With the announcement of a ceasefire and major commitments from the international community, Gur examines what this moment means for Gaza, Israel, Hamas, and the broader region. He explores the reactions—from celebration to stunned silence—and scrutinizes the strategic consequences, with a focus on both hope and looming challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Emotional Impact: Relief, Joy, and Jewish Solidarity

• The episode begins with Gur’s personal sharing of the raw reaction gripping Israelis after the U.S.-brokered deal announcement.

• He highlights the emotional toll of the hostage crisis, describing the ongoing prayers and actions of diaspora communities, exemplified by the Goldstein family, who dedicated days and holidays to a single hostage, Rumi Gunin.

• Quote (07:39):
  “We set aside a menorah for her with her family's menorahs at Hanukkah two years in a row. When the Shavuis Cookbook came out from the hostage family's forum, we baked her white chocolate cheesecake, which was great, by the way.”
  – Haviv Rettig Gur

• The broader theme is Jewish collective responsibility:
  Quote (09:05):
  “All of Israel are responsible for one another.”

2. The Silence of Pro-Palestinian Activism

• Gur draws attention to the striking silence from pro-Palestinian activists now that a ceasefire and an end to hostilities are at hand, challenging the coherence of prior advocacy.

• He suggests that true dedication to ending Gazan suffering should manifest as support for, not silence about, this deal—even if it leaves some details unresolved.

• Quote (13:18):
  “Why is anything allowed to interfere with that end? Unless you don't really believe that that's actually what's happening, that it's a wanton genocide.”

• He concludes that activist silence reveals longstanding self-deception about their cause’s alignment with Gaza’s future, arguing that the focus, especially among activist cores, has been more about supporting Hamas than genuine Gazan welfare.

3. Anatomy of the Deal: Winners and Losers

• Best outcome for Gaza: Israel commits to non-annexation, non-settlement, massive rehabilitation, and guarantees for Gazans to stay or return—all backed by Arab consensus and international funding.

• Worst outcome for Hamas: Hamas is forced to (or pretend to) disarm and relinquish authority, sacrificing its religious-driven forever war and risking marginalization.

• Risks for Israel: Uncertainty whether ultimate Israeli objectives—demilitarization, the defeat of Hamas—will be achieved, as these are deferred to phase two.

• Quote (16:44):
  “It is the best possible outcome for Gaza. And that's exactly what makes it the worst possible outcome for Hamas. Only Hamas loses here.”

• Gur stresses this is not a defeat for Gazan civil society, but for Hamas’s radical vision.

4. Geo-Political Machinations: How the Deal Was Struck

• Gur gives President Trump significant credit for the diplomatic breakthrough, particularly after an Israeli airstrike in Doha destabilized Qatar, a key Hamas benefactor.

• Trump’s executive order granting Qatar military protection, in exchange for pressure on Hamas, is described as a masterstroke—whether as part of a good cop/bad cop routine or deft political improvisation.

• Quote (26:28):
  “He took the lemons...an Israeli strike he thought was irresponsible and destabilizing...he made out of it lemonade...I'll guarantee it never happens again, but in exchange, you give me Hamas.”

• This maneuver exposed Qatar’s role in prolonging conflict, forced it to withdraw overt Hamas support, and shifted the stance of aligned actors (Egypt, Turkey).

5. Why Hamas Now “Caved”

• The collapse of support from Qatar, Egypt’s fatigue with destabilization, and Turkey’s pursuit of Western rapprochement isolated Hamas at a critical moment.
• Gur notes this outcome was feasible months earlier, emphasizing the tragic costs of delay.

6. Risks and Next Steps: The Fragile Road Ahead

• Short-term: Hostages released, IDF withdraws from parts of Gaza, and humanitarian rebuilding commences under international supervision.

• Mid-term/Phase Two: The disarmament and removal of Hamas is still unresolved; enduring power struggles within Gaza (other militias, potential Hamas resurgence) are expected.

• Gur warns that Hamas will regroup where it can, aiming for a comeback and a return to “forever war” against Israel.

• Quote (43:45):
  “Hamas isn’t gone. It still has guns. It’s going to try to retake Gaza...to return to the forever war because its version of Islam tells it it must at any and all cost to the death of the last Gazan.”

• The possibility of renewed conflict in the coming years is real.

7. The Strategic Importance of Israeli Resolve

• Gur contends that Israeli determination, hardened by the past two years, guarantees continued vigilance against threats (Hezbollah, Iran, future Hamas attempts).

• Quote (52:01):
  “That Israeli resolve isn’t going anywhere...The Israelis will never again be fooled by Hamas.”

• This, he argues, is the foundation for optimism about Gaza’s future, provided Israel, Arab states, Western powers, and international stakeholders each play their necessary role: de-radicalization, intelligence, funding, and rebuilding.

8. Hope for Gaza’s Future—But Cautious Optimism

• The “Trump Plan” envisions Gaza’s transformation into a “Mediterranean Emirate,” with the resources for prosperity if extremist leadership is eclipsed.
• Gur acknowledges that pessimism is more rational in the Middle East, yet he believes this international partnership has a real chance to “detoxify, denazify, de-radicalize” Gaza at last.
• Quote (59:40):
  "From the start. It's a whole new day. Everything could go wrong. But for the very first time in two years, everything could go right. That's the victory.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the activist silence:
  “They are silent at the moment of the thing they have been pretending to want for two years.” (20:44)

• On the best-case scenario for Gaza:
  “Gaza has a chance now to become what it should always have been… a beautiful Mediterranean Emirate with natural gas reserves off the coast.” (15:36)

• On the role of the international alliance:
  “This coalition...has a chance. Everybody with their specific and unique contribution that no one else can offer, has a chance to detoxify, denazify, de radicalize Gaza.” (57:17)

Segment Timestamps

• Opening and emotional background: 00:00 – 10:00
• Analysis of activist silence & implications: 10:00 – 22:00
• Deal details—what each party gains or loses: 15:00 – 26:00
• Trump, Qatar, and the negotiation breakthrough: 26:00 – 35:00
• Regional realignments and Oslo delays: 36:00 – 41:00
• The risk of Hamas resurgence: 41:00 – 48:00
• Israeli resolve and future security: 48:00 – 56:00
• The new hope for Gaza and conclusion: 56:00 – 59:56

Final Thoughts

Haviv Rettig Gur’s episode captures a watershed moment in Middle East history, offering a nuanced and forceful analysis of the endgame for Gaza and Hamas. He is cautiously hopeful yet clear-eyed about the region’s dangers, repeatedly emphasizing the potential for both breakthrough and relapse. The episode serves as essential listening for anyone seeking clarity on the hostage deal and what it may herald for Israelis, Palestinians, and the Middle East at large.