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Ryan
Foreign. Nation. It is the last week of April 2026. Time for the bankless weekly roll up. We got oil prices at their highest level yet at least since the start of this war. There's signs of an indefinite blockage on the Strait of Hormuz.
David
Rock in a hard place.
Ryan
Yeah, rock in a hard place. We're going to talk about that and where oil price is going.
David
Despite all of the turmoil in the Middle east which does not show any signs of ramping up. Markets are going up. S and P at the time of recording is at all time highs. It just printed its best month since 2020. We are on the, on the last day of the month on the day of recording. So we have the turmoil in the Middle east on one side. We have the AI boom on the other side. One of these things at least in the equities market is clearly winning. And then also that is leading into the three biggest IPOs in history. All come in into the market in the next six months. Could that mark. The top is at the top. Think is that the.
Ryan
I think it could be top.
David
We're going to. We're going to talk about whether that's the top or not.
Ryan
Also Powell is now out. This was his last FOMC meeting. He had some dissent on the committee as the most divided FOMC vote since 1992. We'll talk about that. And as he was walking out he said I won't see you next time. And then he announced he's actually not leaving.
David
But he did means he doesn't do the meetings anymore.
Ryan
That's right.
David
Think he ends the meetings with see you next time.
Ryan
Yeah.
David
And that's why he said I won't see you next time. That's why it was funny. Anyways, in the crypto news Defi had it's a bailout moment. 303 million raised in just 11 days to fill the hole left by the kelp dao layer. Zero hack. Biggest hack in history. Rescued by Defi itself. Kind of cool. A heartwarming story. I do not expect it to be the status quo moving forward. This was a one off probably but we'll just talk about that. Bitcoin Vegas highlights the bitcoin conference hosted by Bitcoin media has happening right now. Eric Trump says the US holds 300,000 bitcoin and won't sell it. The acting attorney general tells crypto devs that code is not a crime. But do they really mean it? And then a soldier was arrested for winning $400,000 on a polymarket Bet that he did with classified intel. And so we're going to talk about all the implications.
Ryan
Turns out that's illegal. Turns out I think that's illegal.
David
Do you think he know that? Knew that ahead of time? We're probably going to have to find out.
Ryan
I'm pretty sure he knew it was a bad. You know, I want to start this week with this clip because not often do you hear the secretary of war for the world's greatest military power talking about bitcoin. And yet that's what we just heard in Congress. So this is a question from a member of Congress to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Let's play the clip.
David
Over the past decade, bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset into a matter of national security. Iran has demanded Bitcoin as a toll for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. North Korean cyber actors have leveraged it in ransomware campaigns. And China is believed to be stockpiling substantial holdings as part of a strategic reserve. Just last week, Indo PAYCOM commander Admiral Paparo stated that Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection. And he noted that indopacom is operating a node on the bitcoin network and furtherance of that. Mission Secretary, do you share the opinion that Bitcoin is a tool to project power and are there any department wide initiatives to ensure the US Secures a strategic advantage in Bitcoin and combats China's digital authoritarianism? I guess my short answer would be yes and yes.
Ryan
Long an enthusiast of bitcoin and crypto
David
potential and a lot of the things we're doing, enabling it or defeating it are classified efforts that are ongoing inside our department, which I do provide, do provide us a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios. I appreciate that and I share your views.
Ryan
Okay, that was interesting to me. So first of all, China stockpiling, that's what the member of Congress said. I don't know how true that is, but China stockpiling bitcoin and then the question to Pete Hegseth like, is bitcoin a matter of national security and importance? And he said yes, it was. And then he also said, I'm not going to divulge the ways we are both supporting bitcoin and also thwarting it in cases. Thwarting it, what does that mean?
David
Yeah, do you think there's substance there or because the Donald Trump wants and all of his cabinet wants the United States to be pro crypto, crypto capital of the world. And so you could just like see this as kind of pandering is like, yeah, bitcoin is a tool of our power because it aligns with our interests.
Ryan
Sure.
David
Or there's actual substance there.
Ryan
Yeah, it might be both, David. I think it might be both, actually. That question from the representative almost felt a little kind of like seated, as all of them do. Right. Like, I want you to say something nice about bitcoin. So I'm going to phrase this question a way that allows you to let
David
me underhand this one to you, Pete, and you can knock it out of the park.
Ryan
I felt like that. But. But also at the same time, we have the war in Iran and is it economic fury? Is that what you were calling it last time? So crackdown Iran using tether. You know, the US treasury freezing that. Iran talking about using bitcoin. I'm not sure if they have. You wonder if the Secretary of War and the US Defense Department has some sort of design and a way to prevent them from using Bitcoin in the future. That would be fascinating.
David
We are interviewing individual from TRM Labs tomorrow who I think is going to be able to kind of inform us exactly the depth of involvement that Iran has with bitcoin and also what the US Is doing about it. So stay tuned for that if that is something that is in your feedback. Speaking of the war, let's just get into the update on the Iran war. Maybe three big things to kind of highlight a kinetic war potentially back on the menu. Donald Trump has briefed the military to prepare for a long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as opposed to a short one. Like, we're in it for the long haul here.
Ryan
Like it's like indefinite. There's no date in which it's finished.
David
Yeah. And then Trump says that he will keep Iran under a naval blockade until they agree to a nuclear deal. So downstream of all of this, Brent crude just poked above $120 a barrel. All time, all time highs for the war. So we are at wartime highs, I think last week and the week before I said we were like wartime lows of $90. We're at 115 to $120 a barrel at the time of recording, which is as high as it's been during for the whole entire war. This is showing up across the world. Asia is in. Is in one of its worst energy crises in history. And the inflation in Asia is pretty high. United States gas prices have climbed to the highest level since August 2024. Nationally, the average is about $4.23 a gallon. And I mean, we did our episode with Rory Johnson this last Monday. Fantastic episode. I really, really liked it. He thinks this is the beginning of much something much, much more.
Ryan
Yeah, Rory is now our designated oil quant as well. And he tweeted this. I saw this this morning from him saying, still in la la land with respect to oil prices, why oil prices are not yet high enough. And he basically says, yeah, the Economist cover is correct on this. I think he believes oil prices are going north of 150, and he just is doing the math based on the amount of supply that's actually locked in the Strait of Hormuz. I think he said, like, 13 million barrels per day. Being knocked offline of a total of 100 million barrels per day, that's like 10 to 15% of the world's oil supply. And the market, according to him, has not yet absorbed those prices. And as he said, it doesn't look like oil or the Strait is going to be opened anytime soon. Actually, Rory thinks this will all conclude at some point when Trump starts to feel the pressure on his numbers. Whether that's oil price, whether it's price at the pump, whether that stock doesn't look like it, stocks this week, whether that's his approval ratings or Treasury. He thinks the financial markets will actually push him into stopping, but it doesn't seem like we're close to that yet.
David
Yeah, the interesting thing that came out of that episode with Rory was his, like, articulation that any time oil prices got too high or stock prices got too low or yields got too high, Trump was like, ah, it's all over. We're done here. And then the market would, like, get suppressed. And so the implication is, like, Trump was doing active market manipulation in a sense of just like, oh, I don't like expectation management. Expectation management. Like oil prices too high, it's all over, the war's over, we won. And, you know, here we are, actually, if you look in hindsight, like nothing's really changed. And the implication there is that, you know, eventually the market's going to run out of leash and oil is going to do something drastic.
Ryan
Because there's some hard physics here.
David
Yes, exactly. Because oil is simply just not flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. So ahead of all of that, Iran did submit a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. It had this very important detail that the nuclear weapons disarmament line item would be discussed later. So, like, we'll open the Strait of Hormuz. We'll end all we'll agree to a lot of your terms and we'll punt on the nuclear disarmament thing. And Trump was like no you guys, you, you guys are not saying that's the whole thing. Like you guys aren't getting out of that one. And so this is kind of why tension has increased. So Trump has really opted to just continue to squeeze Iran's economy and oil exports through the prolonged blockade strategy, saying that the blockade will continue to pressure Iran into capitulation on the nuclear issue. That's a quote. And then Iran said two days ago that it will never discuss nuclear weapons under current conditions. And so here we are in Iraq and a hard place and why oil is breaching $120 a barrel. So there's so a couple big takeaways that I just want to underpin. We're kind of back to who can bear the most pain. And there are some points for Iran, there are some points for United States reasons why the United States can bear pain is a we have our own domestic source of oil. That's West Texas Intermediate crude. That's our like prices are up but at least we're buffered so that's nice for us.
Ryan
Not as bad as the rest of the world.
David
Not as bad as the rest of the world. SPY all time highs. How can you complain the dow is above 50,000.
Ryan
We're can you complain if you own assets in spy? If you don't you can, you can complain quite a bit.
David
Reasons why the United States cannot bear pain. Domestic gas prices are still high. People don't like that. As Ryan just said, many people don't own assets. So the SPY at all time highs doesn't really matter. Also 10 year yields have gone up as well in tandem with oil and so the costs of debt is now higher as a result of this. That's downstream from inflation which is downstream from oil prices. Everything is downstream of the Strait of Hormuz. And there also are just a bunch of like other like numbers to talk about. Food inflation is already increasing and so we're actually starting to see food prices go up because of higher oil prices. Fertilizer prices are up because of higher oil prices. Fertilizer is an input into food costs. Impacts on commodity prices since the start of the war are just bad like prices are all higher. Like you can just see everything across the board. Jet fuel, sulfur, heating oil, diesel, gasoline all up double digit percentage. So life the cost of living is just up double digit percentage. And then like I just said the 30 year yield is now just 11 bips from a new 18 year high. So a decent number of reasons why this is painful for the United States.
Ryan
That's right. And, and as those numbers tick up, the frog will start to be boiled and people will start to notice. I guess in the frog analogy the frog never notices, but I think people will in this case. It'll add pressure to the U.S. how about the pain for Iran?
David
Yeah. So reasons why Iran can bear pain on and really this is about the nuclear program. The nuclear program is something close to fundamental to the regime. Like if they capitulate on the nuclear program, it's kind of being become elevated to the whole thing. For the Islamic regime, it's, it's a question of their existence.
Ryan
They have always question, I think it seems like a question of their sovereignty. If they don't have a nuclear program, they'll always be under the thumb of the US and, and Israel. If they do, then they'll be positioned like North Korea where like they're untouchable. Right, so it's a sovereignty type question for the regime.
David
Yes, that's the external facing articulation. The, the more internal facing one is it's a question of legitimacy. They have been in pursuit and spe billions and billions of dollars pursuing this whole thing. And so without it as like an overarching goal internally, it's like what the hell are we even doing here?
Ryan
Oh really?
David
Yes, yes. It's an internal legitimacy question, guys. Yes. But totalitarian regimes reasons why Iran cannot bear pain. Their currency is undergoing hyperinflation. The economy is just completely devastated, threatening the ability to pay IRGC paychecks. So this is also internal stabilization. Iran is not necessarily stable internally. Obviously the people don't want Iran in power without paying the paychecks of the people keeping everything together. How can you sustain yourself? And then also economic fury, which we'll talk about in a second, is also just reducing Iran's means. We were seizing hundreds of millions of dollars of Iranian assets with every opportunity that we have.
Ryan
Last week we talked about some of those hundreds of millions of dollars in the case. It was, it was tether freezing. 344 million USDT. We didn't know at the time what they were freezing. It was one of the largest in history. I did, you had a guess. David said it was Iran. It turns out it was Iran. David. So Iran was keeping their tether, their stablecoin on Tron USDT tether on Tron yesterday. And that was all frozen by tether.
David
It's so we'll be making that Mistake
Ryan
again, like Tron, Tether, usdt. I mean, you can get screwed so many different times. You get it frozen by tether. They also get frozen by Justin Sun. It seems like a very strange place to put your, your value if you are a rogue regime. And nevertheless they put it there and it was all frozen. So this is Secretary of Treasury Scott Besant saying the Treasury Department, through economic fury, has targeted Iran's international shadow banking infrastructure. Access to crypto, he says shadow fleet weapons procurement networks. And he goes on and talks about all the other things that they are restricting access to. It's kind of a question, David. So let's say Iran does learn from this mistake and they're like, okay, no more stablecoins. The US can obviously freeze that. What if they keep their value in something else? What if they start keeping their value in bitcoin, ether something on Ethereum, Maybe not in stablecoins, but some of these crypto native assets. Then what does the US do in those cases? We haven't seen evidence that the US can do anything. But there was also that ominous comment from Pete Hegseth at the start of this episode. Maybe the US has some way to interfere or, I don't know, get at the bitcoin that a rogue regime holds. What do you think?
David
That would be wild if they have means outside of what people expect them to have when it comes to censoring bitcoin.
Ryan
I guess what I'm saying is that's about to be tested, right? I mean, we've always talked about these crypto assets being how national, like sovereign to nation state attack, are they? Well, this is a case where a nation state, the most powerful nation state in the world, actually wants to probably attack some of the assets, the crypto assets that a rogue regime has. And so they're going to do whatever they can. And will bitcoin stand up to that or not?
David
With, with this freezing of tether on Tron, you will. You could assume it's safe to assume that the Iranian regime, the Islamic regime, will like re prioritize Bitcoin as a result. It's like, well, they just got their, their dollars stolen on Tron. Maybe bitcoin on Bitcoin is a better option. And then I think what you're saying is like, okay, with that being the case, economic fury, the ofac Treasury Department is going to do everything possible that they can do to seize the bitcoin or censor the bitcoin Incentive.
Ryan
That's right. I'm just saying, like tether who they're they're, you know, partnering with economic theory. They also own the largest bitcoin miner in the world. Yeah, I mean I'm sure they're probing for some nexus to attack some of those assets too, if they can. And we'll see where how that turns out.
David
Yeah. Let's get into stocks. The S and P is on track for its best month since November 2020. Now there's a little bit I would like to add in a nuance is that the April 1, March 31 was the absolute bottom of the Iran war. And so is a perfect bottom to start measuring this number. But nonetheless The S&P 500 is up 13 and a half percent over the 30 days of April. Pretty crazy. How is it possible with all of the turmoil, with all of the oil prices? Ryan?
Ryan
I think the answer is AI dude. Like it's AI boom. We're talking about AI bubble. And lots of people have been repeating that we have an AI boom on our hands. Maybe it's a bubble. It's certainly a boom. This is how Kobayasi letter puts it. The answer to that question, the question you just asked of if oil prices are above 100 per barrel and the war isn't over, why are stocks at record high? The answer is simple. The AI revolution has simply become so large that investors are viewing everything else as noise. It's so big it just drowns out everything else. Like AI is increasing the productivity of companies.
David
AI is forever.
Ryan
We're seeing this in top line. We're seeing this in bottom line. We saw some stellar earnings reports come out just yesterday. Google in particular. Incredible top line numbers. Incredible profit numbers. Exceeded analysts expectations. Up 7, 8%. Right. No wonder the S and P is still humming. It's because AI is crushing it actually. Let's do a David charting corner. Can we see some of these charts? Love all time highs. Want to see the David Hoffman charts? What you got for us?
David
David Hoffman, the trader. That's right.
Ryan
No, you just look, you don't trade. Right.
David
Starting off with the spy, we're just poking ahead of the all time highs. 7,000. Almost 7,200. Just shy of it. And just incredible. Just like you're at a loss for words. Yeah, we went straight up all of April. Kind of wild, dude. Nvidia poked ahead of all time highs. It's a little bit back down to 200 a share. But the previous all time high back in November was 212. It hit 216 a couple days ago. That's wild. Amazon is basically at all time highs it hit $275 after earnings report yesterday. Came back down, but still basically at highs. Google's the big one here. Oh my God, dude, look at that, man. That is wild. Up 10% after they reported earnings to $384 a share. Just Google is on an absolute tear. And I think those are all the big ones.
Ryan
No, no, no, there's some big ones you forgot. How about bitcoin? How about Ether?
David
How are they doing? Not big, not flat on the week. Bitcoin I Think is up 2.5% on the week. ETH is up 1.5% on the week. So Bitcoin's at 76,000. Ether, that 2250 overall unremarkable price action in crypto.
Ryan
I want to throw a theory by you, or at least a possibility here. So, you know, Talking about the AI boom, of course, the king of the AI boom right now is anthropic. Anthropic just passed open AI in revenue for the first time. So this is 30 billion. From 1 to 30 billion in 15 months. OpenAI is 24 billion. Look at this chart. Anthropic just gaining ground. This is the fastest valuation, like tripling in tech history. And so this is going to IPO at some point. And we have some pretty major IPOs coming down the pike. The biggest IPO run in history, in the history of the market. SpaceX IPO, that's going to be at least $1.7 trillion. The OpenAI IPO, imagine that exceeds a trillion. Anthropic is already worth over a trillion dollars. So that's three over $1 trillion IPOs. This tweet says we're living through the greatest technological wealth creation in history. Anthropic from 380 billion valuation to 1 trillion in just three months. Okay, so all of that IPOing, right? This is initial public offering. This means you are taking shares that were private, that were owned by insiders, that were owned by VCs and investors and management team, and you're releasing them to the public at massive elevated valuations that the public has not partaken in. What does this remind you of, David? This is the.
David
The top
Ryan
it could be. I mean, we've seen similar things play out in tokens. Right? Our tops in tokens, like our tops in crypto always end when there's too many assets to grow, go around and not enough investors. Right?
David
Yeah, yeah. And asset. In crypto, asset creation, like token creation goes up when prices go up.
Ryan
Yes.
David
And so there's a correlation there being a $1 trillion company, do you know where that puts you in the ranking of companies, Ryan?
Ryan
Oh, it's got to be top 10, right? If you're over a trillion now, top 10.
David
Gold is number one. Silver is.
Ryan
Well, those are companies.
David
Bitcoin is 12. And so if you cut those out, you're in, you're in the top. Top 13. You're in the top 13.
Ryan
Yes. And these are brand new companies that have never been publicly traded. This is Tom o' Shaughnessy's take. I was talking to someone today about what they think happens when all these companies IPO. And if that's the top for the AI craze, history says mega IPOs at peak narrative usually mark the top for that theme, but rarely for the index. And this is three of the biggest ever to land in the next six months. So another take related to this. I've been thinking about this for a while. These IPOs will drain so much capital from the system, especially after the unlocks. Remember, you get vesting investors, management team unlocks. These are going to be like multi millionaires. A lot of liquidity sloshing around. They're going to want to exit at least some portion of that for harder assets.
David
Some people have billions of dollars locked up in these shares that will become unlocked. Like they're hammering the sell button. They're hammering the sell button.
Ryan
That's right. And more and more IPOs have been a process of like, it's like an exit liquidity process. It's not like retail public markets have participated in these gains. They're just starting to get in at the top when the company is worth multiple trillions of dollars. Like. Yeah. So that could be the top. That could be the top.
David
David, did you see the Elon's share package agreement in SpaceX?
Ryan
No. Is insane.
David
He. It's there. I don't know what the more short term stuff is, but there's like a massive amount of SpaceX shares that get awarded to Elon. If he puts a $1 million, excuse me, a 1 million person colony on Mars. That is a real thing.
Ryan
That's a real KPI milestone.
David
Yes.
Ryan
That's incredible. Yeah, I mean, I don't know if that guy sells. I haven't looked at his selling track
David
record, but he doesn't sell more and more capital.
Ryan
Meanwhile, David, the Fed is injecting more liquidity into the system. So we talked about this on the Defi Report with Michael Nadeau. He's talking about the Fed's RPM program. Since December, the Fed has actually injected 172 billion to their balance sheet over the last four months. There's some question as to like is that going to continue under Kevin Warsh? I think Michael and some others were hoping that Powell would say something about it in the FOMC meeting. He really didn't. So I guess what I'm saying is the liquidity picture, I know Michael Howell says liquidity is turning over, it's on the side of going down and yet the liquidity picture is actually increasing a little bit at least on the Fed side and the US side. So it's on kind of the brink of some teeter totter balance where we could actually get more liquidity or people like Michael Howell are right then liquidity could be going down. So don't that that is either up or yet to be told. Right. Well great summary of it David. We should pause right now and talk to the sponsors that made this possible. And after that we're gonna get to Powell some bitcoin clips. Mega eth also defi united the bailout. So much more to cover. But before we do let's thank the sponsors that made this possible.
David
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Ryan
David. This is a picture of Fed Chair Jerome Powell exiting from his last FOMC meeting. Kind of anticlimactic, he says. Thank you very much, everyone. I won't see you next time. This is followed by much laughter. Actually, did you see this clip? This was. This was kind of funny. I'm going to play this. This kind of humanizes.
David
Yeah, yeah. Howard Schneider with Reuters. You mentioned that staying on as a governor, you intend to keep a low profile. I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can.
Ryan
Touche. All right. People are laughing because Powell, when he says low profile, Powell starts like ducking lower and lower on the podium so you can't see him.
David
And it's not. There's no lag there. He instantly just starts literally getting a low profile economist.
Ryan
Humor is great.
David
I think part of the backdrop of that is that Trump arrested James Comey earlier this week.
Ryan
Oh, yeah.
David
So Powell's like, I'm literally going to have a low profile.
Ryan
I want to shrink behind this.
David
Exactly.
Ryan
God wants you disappear. Well, he's not going yet. We'll talk about that in a minute. But first, the fed funds rate. What was the number they held? 3.5 to change. 75. No, no change. But the dissent was the story here because there was more dissent than we've seen since 1992.
David
Yeah, yeah. Four dissenting votes. It was an 8, 4 vote. Who dissented? Steven Mirren, who always dissents because he wants to always cut rates. Because he's Trump's little, little puppet. He just likes cutting rates.
Ryan
Okay. I don't know about that. He just loves cutting rates.
David
He loves cutting rates. The other three dissented in the opposite direction. They dissented because part of the comms from the Fed was to signal a possible easing bias in the future. And they dissented because they didn't want to signal that.
Ryan
Yes.
David
And so they said no, in the future there is not necessarily easing happening. And you know, reading between the leaves, we have Wash, Kevin Warsh incoming to the Fed as the new Fed chair. He's. He's going to be the guy doing the, the new Fed meetings. Yep. And that this is a shot across the bow to Wash saying, hey, dude, you're coming in here.
Ryan
This is a committee.
David
Trump's, Trump's new puppet, in addition to Stephen Mirren. We're not doing the, the whole politicization of the Fed thing.
Ryan
Well, they're pushing back. They're pushing because Kevin Warsh has, has indicated that he actually sees deflation as a primary problem that comes with because of AI.
David
Yeah.
Ryan
Maybe some openness to cutting rates. And this is maybe the FOMC saying, hey, like we're pushing back on that. This was a key term that they changed. Maybe the most important takeaway from the Fed decision. So for months, the Fed has been talking about inflation and they use this term, somewhat elevated. Okay. That's their policy statement today. They changed that from somewhat elevated to just elevated elevated. So they cut the somewhat. And that means a lot. They think inflation is elevated. Look at this chart here. This is CPI from the last, let's see, five years. By the way. This is hilarious. You see this Gap here. It's like the line break gaps. I think this is when the government shut down maybe. Is that what that is? There's no other gap here. The government just like stopped reporting numbers on CPI or something. Someone could fact check me. I think that's what that might be. But look at this. So we are at CPI 3.2%.
David
Oh my God. I, yeah, that is a spike because it was holding below three for a very long time, right?
Ryan
Yeah. And below three.
David
Personally I have not been worried about inflation for a long time because it's like it was always below 3.
Ryan
How about now? I mean we haven't been worried about it because history 2022, remember was 9% recording roll ups then and that, that felt, that felt pretty hot. Not so transitory.
David
Yeah, but bitcoin was at all time highs and so was ether then. So actually it was fine then.
Ryan
It's less fine now. Anyway, it's ticking up and so the Fed is saying that they're reacting to that.
David
Is that the oil, the high oil price print, Is that what this is?
Ryan
I think so. Look, it's starting in February, like if oil continues to increase, that's, that's an energy ingredient in all of these things. We just talked about food prices. It's definitely going to affect this. Powell though, says he actually has faith in Kevin Warsh. He says that he will take Warsh at his word that he will stand up to political pressure from Trump. I don't know if he's just hopeful of that or if he's sending some sort of.
David
Trying to manifest it. I feel like he's manifesting.
Ryan
Yes. Now Powell is actually, that was his last FOMC meeting, but he's staying around as a governor. Okay, so no longer the chair, but he's going to stay around as a governor until the. Do you remember Trump was, was this like a lawsuit? Is this what it was? Trump was prosecuting Powell for the Fed building these buildings and there's some impropriety involved there. And Powell is going to stay around until all of that is resolved. And of course Trump had a. Which is strategic, right?
David
This is a strategic move to deny Trump a majority of.
Ryan
That's right.
David
That's right.
Ryan
And he just wants to wrap this up and you know, like wrap up, I guess maybe the prosecution and Trump's response was this. Fed Chair Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't get a job anywhere else. Nobody wants him. He's never changed.
David
At least he's funny. At least he's funny.
Ryan
So Historically, I wonder how history will view Powell. I mean, I, you know, maybe I'm going to miss him. Maybe I'm going to miss him when he's gone. It was, he was the 16th Fed chair. He had an eight year term. So he's been with us the entirety of the bankless show. Okay, so we've never had another Fed chair yet. The COVID response kept things together.
David
Dude, do you remember from 2022 onwards it was like, can the Fed walk the tightrope and not land the plane?
Ryan
Remember we talked about the R word for years? Recession, everyone.
David
Yeah.
Ryan
And he, he got the soft landing. Now, inflation was not as transitory as he said, but it did go down. Right.
David
And he was also after, after hiking rates. Yeah, that's transitory because he hiked rates of boldness.
Ryan
Remember he was going to do the Volcker thing and he hiked rates 525bips, David.
David
Yeah, right.
Ryan
That's a lot of bips to hike. It's a pretty bold move there. So I don't know, I give him, you know, I'm a C plus, B minus for the Fed chair. I think he did an okay job.
David
Why, why not a, why not an A or an A minus?
Ryan
I can't think of a Fed chair that gets an A. Not in my books. Or.
David
Dude, Ryan, harsh grader, man. Do you, do you.
Ryan
I mean the balance sheet is all messed up. Like they're still printing money.
David
Like, is that, is that the Fed's fault?
Ryan
No, I mean they're caught in the cycle. But that's, that just impacts my grading. That impacts my grading, my hard grading.
David
I think he gets a B plus. I think it's a B plus.
Ryan
Well, David, you can be more generous. I'm sure Powell is very concerned about how the bankless guys are grading him.
David
He listens to the show, checking in.
Ryan
There was a bitcoin conference in Vegas this week. There was a clip from Eric Trump. All right, this is a three minute bull clip. I know bitcoin is low on the week. I could play that clip for you. Eric Trump just talking about bitcoin, how great it is. He said the US government holds 300,000 bitcoin and will not sell it. The suppression of bitcoin is unbelievable. I watched this full clip and it's just like a full on rant about how fantastic bitcoin is doing and how underpriced it is. Would you like to.
David
From Eric Trump?
Ryan
Yes. Would you like to see that?
David
Can I counter you with a shorter clip from Paul Tudor Jones on a podcast with a very good microphone.
Ryan
I will always say yes to Paul Tudor Jones over.
David
Sorry, Eric Trump, we're replacing you with Paul Tudor Jones.
Ryan
Okay, what's Paul got to say?
David
This is Paul Tudor Jones on Invest like the Best with Patrick o' Shaughnessy talking about how bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge that there is. Let's go and just listen to the clip.
Ryan
And then in 2020, when you saw again all the interventions both by the central bank and the treasury, you just knew that the inflation trades were going to take off. And what was of all of them, what was the best one at that point in time? It was bitcoin. Bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge that there is. More than gold, because bitcoin is finite. There's only so much bitcoin that can be mined.
David
I think that begs the question, right, we just talked about inflation ticking up. Yeah.
Ryan
When's Paul gonna put the trade on? When's he going to come back?
David
Yeah, yeah.
Ryan
I watched this whole interview. It's fantastic. I love Paul Twitter Jones. And so he was talking about one of his best trades, which was he bought Bitcoin in 2020 because he saw inflation on the horizon. And of course, we just looked at the inflation numbers. We wanted it to 9%. Bitcoin massively overperformed just about any asset during that time period. And so, yeah, it's a good question, like if inflation is back on the menu. And Paul, if you're right about it being a fantastic inflation head, this is also hedge. This is also what Jordy Versier said to us, actually. He's like, bitcoin always outperforms when you have real, you know, what did you say it was? Inflation and real rates, you know, start to kind of tick down. Right. So maybe we're set up for that. David, let's talk about the Mega Eth token launch that just hit mainnet today at the time of recording.
David
Today, the time of recording.
Ryan
I haven't looked at the numbers. What's going on?
David
Well, numbers are just coming in. I'll tell you about them in a second. As a philosophical statement, I think, like Mega Eth and also Monad. Everything about this also applies to Monad. Mega Eth is like kind of the last bastion of the on chain crypto native. You know, try new apps, get rewarded for trying new apps. And so it's like created a little bit of a revitalization of all the people who like to log into Apps and press buttons with their crypto wallets. So I think it's like something to celebrate and I think the mood is like kind of coming up is boosted a little bit of this Mega Eats. They put their token launch behind KPIs. One of those KPIs was hit the 10 live ecosystem apps with real users, which created the 7 Day Countdown, which we were at the end of. And so checking in on just the valuation of the Mega token. The ticker is Mega. Great, great ticker.15 cents, which puts Mega ETH at a $1.5 billion valuation and $170 million market cap.
Ryan
That's not bad.
David
Not too high, not too low, non frothy. Seems very healthy. And right right now, a lot of the. If you were in the ico, you had some of your ICO unlocked. If you participated in the NFT sale forever ago, you have your tokens. So there is a big gap between float and total supply. But it's always how it is. And the thing to do, they have this incentivization campaign and so they have this dashboard. It's a map of Amsterdam. Obviously everyone loves Amsterdam and crypto because this is where we started trading things. Everything between actual real stuff and also tulips. And you can just go into the Mega ETH portal and they have all the apps. So you can go, you can go try them out.
Ryan
There's some cool stuff there, right?
David
Yep.
Ryan
There's Dexes and Perps and Depin. There's a whole eco games that's been built. The whole game euphoria is kind of a cool app.
David
Tap to trade. Yep.
Ryan
So the token was released. Did people sell? What happened there?
David
I saw one tweet from a analytics company that said 8,300 wallets that received
Ryan
their Mega tokens and they all purchased Mega, right?
David
Everyone purchased Mega. No error drop. This is one of the unique things about the Mega story is that everyone who owns Mega Tokens has a purchase price.
Ryan
So they believed in some sort of value accrual increase thing for the token. They were true believers.
David
Yeah. I can't remember what the NFT fluffer sale was valued at. It was in the hundreds of millions. But most people have their Mega tokens from the $999 million ICO. And so we are a little bit over 50% above. So those participants are like 50% plus in the green. 60. 60%. 70%. 70% is how that works. Because a $1.7 billion valuation is 70% higher than 999 million. I know how to do that math. Anyways, 50% of the people receiving their mega tokens are still holding 40% sold and 10% partially sold. Does that 40% number feel high to you? A little bit, but it's also a little high.
Ryan
It's also a bear market.
David
It's a bear market. Yeah.
Ryan
You got to shake out the wheat hands. Weak hands. This is hot money. Of course. And so, I mean, it could have been worse. The fact that it's hanging in there at 1.5 billion is, like, pretty good for a bear market.
David
Right. After 40% sold everything and we're still clocking in 1.7 billion. I feel that's. That feels healthy.
Ryan
We'll see where it goes from here. Defi United. Okay. Last week we talked about Defi's worst hack probably ever, the kelp dao hack. David. This week we're saved, and we're saved by Defi United. So let's remind folks where we left things. Last week. We were short about 76,000 eth. This was an AAVE. It was ether that was supposed to be backing RSE. That was no longer there because North Korea hacked it all. So there was a hole, and there's a question of how to repair the hole. Well, Arbitrum did free some funds from North Korea. That was about 30,000 ETH, but that still left a pretty large hole in ETH denomination, about 42,000 ETH. So the question was 40, 45,000. Thank you. How do we fill the hole? And we left last week's episode not knowing who would get the haircut.
David
How, assuming that hole is just the hole, like, sorry, shit out of luck. That's just how it is.
Ryan
Well, what's that? If we do the Math, is it 100 million? Over 100 million, something like that? Or close to it, Right?
David
About a hundred million.
Ryan
Okay. All right. So what happened?
David
Defi United happens. What is Defi United? A bunch of people came together and made donations and also loans. So some of these things are loans as well. And we'll talk about that structuring. Stani Sonny, the leader of AAVE, the founder of AAVE, he donated 5000 ETH. Saying AAVE is my life work. Wants to just. Just, you know, making sure that the legacy of AAVE is as sound as possible. So tip of the hot dust, Downey, but a bunch of other people as well. Consensus. And Joe Lubin donated 30,000. Mantle is lending 30,000 AAVE DAO putting up 25,000. Ether5 putting up 5,000 layer 0 5,000 lido 20,50 Really a donation?
Ryan
Was Joe Lubin really a donation or was that a lot?
David
Yeah, it seems hard to believe that it was donating 30,000. Some of these things are loans. Some of these things are donations. The loan, the mantle is a loan. And some of these terms are kind of interesting. So the interest that Mantle gets is the lido staking yield plus 1 more percent on top. So roughly 4 to 5% APY in eth terms for up to 3 years. AAVE can repay with no penalty as collateral. AAVE puts up 5% of ongoing protocol revenue and $11 million in AAVE tokens. And that is held in a multi sig wallet that Mantle controls. The interesting thing here is that Mantle gets the voting power over 130,000 delegated AAVE tokens. So basically with this loan they get a governance seat, a very significant governance seat. And maybe this also helps deploy AAVE on Mantle. And so there's a business opportunity for Mantle and I would expect anyone else doing alone is also working strategically. Like, I mean.
Ryan
But the point is the Defi community came together, raised these funds, plugged the whole. There's a total raise, 311 million to plug this. That's over and above what we needed, isn't it? I don't know what we do with the remainder, but so, and I don't think that this was just, let's say, pure altruism, of course. Right. Some of these are calculated business decisions because it would be good for all the parties involved to make sure that we support DeFi, to make sure it doesn't go anywhere, to make sure the faith in DEFI is restored. But that's all fine. In fact, that's fine. That's a stronger mechanism to me than
David
pure altruism, than just donations. Yeah, it does show. At the end of the day, if you're somebody who's part of that whole and you have less ether, you don't care, you get your ether back.
Ryan
And it shows. Defi can recover no public funding, no taxpayer funding. It can coordinate, it can repair, it can create, win wins. And it's strong in the aftermath of this. So a fantastic show of faith. I think it's incredibly bullish. AAVE released a detail on how they plan to repair the RS ETH backing as a result of Defi United. It's all here. Of course. This is like a one time kind of fix. We can't, we can't be doing this every week, David.
David
Right? No, no. But you know what we can be doing every single week, and not only every Single week, Ryan.
Ryan
What?
David
But there was basically a defi exploit in the month of April. Every Single day, every 20.
Ryan
Every 27 hours.
David
Every 27 hours, there was a defi exploit. You know, some of these were small. Yeah, like $50,000. Yeah, some of them were large. But at the end of the day, like, there's a tweet here. April 1, drift285. April 3, silo v2.2.394,000. April 4, whatever. TMM is 1.6 million. Like, do you see this? This is wild.
Ryan
A total of some of those were denominated in millions, by the way. So a total of 630 million stolen in April. Worst month ever for defi. Which cannot be sustained, no matter how it's coordinated. Doesn't matter how much we help each other out. Okay, so permanent on chain, like insurance fund. We need some of that. We need L2 beat style disclosures. We need to harden everything. These hacks, we need circuit breakers. We've talked about that. These hacks will not stop coming because AI is like.
David
This is AI this has got to be AI this has got to be AI it's got to be AI Can. I don't want to tease anyone who's gotten lost money, but can you. Can I show you my favorite one of these?
Ryan
Yes. Where?
David
Coming in at the 18th largest exploit
Ryan
out of 24 Scallop Lend.
David
Scallop Lend. Hacked for $150,000. I had never heard of scalloplands before.
Ryan
So you're saying, you know, shouldn't put your funds in anything shady.
David
I'm sure they're great people.
Ryan
Put your funds into things that are too big to fail. Like Aave. Right.
David
Aave.
Ryan
Did I just curse us? I mean, it was fantastic to see the defi community show up for this and set things right. David, we got more coming up. The special ops soldier was arrested for using classified information for a $400,000 bet he made about the US very profitable trading strategy. Yeah, the US probability of invading Venezuel. He happened to be one of the people invading Venezuela.
David
Venezuela.
Ryan
So that's a crime. Also, the Attorney General of the US at the Bitcoin conference said code is not a crime. But can we believe him? Those stories and more are coming up. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible.
David
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Ryan
It turns out it's highly illegal, David. I mean this is classified information. So this is from the CFTC report who's kind of the cop on the beat here. You know his handle was burdensome mix and this has his burdensome mix, his crypto address here. This was his first trade ever. A very profitable trade. First trade. And the question posed was, well, will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? And he purchased the yes on that one because he knew in advance what would happen. So obviously this is illegal. The CFTC prosecuted him. This is Shane Copeland from polymarket, the CEO saying, grateful the DOJ officially acknowledged Polymarket's cooperation on this case. The reality is we work proactively with all the relevant authorities. We flagged this, referred it, and cooperated throughout the process. So this happens behind the scenes. And by the way, he said, I'm going to paraphrase, all of this was on chain. So the transparency of having it on Polygon on chain means criminals have less ability to get away from this kind of thing. So I wonder if, I think I
David
remember reading a story where the individual emailed polymarket and it was like, hey, can you close my account and delete all my data?
Ryan
Oh, shoot, it doesn't work like that. It's. David, there's a scuffle that the CFTC is having. In addition to restoring market integrity by prosecuting crimes like this, the CFTC and Wisconsin are in a, in a bit of a battle. What's this about?
David
So the state of Wisconsin had filed lawsuits against kalshi, polymarket, crypto, crypto.com, robinhood, Coinbase, all entities that have prediction markets on their platforms. And so Wisconsin's going after all the platforms. CFTC responded by going after Wisconsin saying, hey, this is our turf, get off of our turf, back off. Yeah. And Mike Selig made that video saying, I'm totally going to do this if the states come after my prediction markets.
Ryan
Yeah.
David
And that's what happened. And here we are.
Ryan
The quote from him, states cannot circumvent the clear direction of Congress. So he is going hard after the states enforcing his jurisdiction. David, the Attorney General of the US went to the bitcoin conference we were talking about in Vegas and told crypto developers, code is not a crime. I'm going to play a clip. Third party participants in crypto shouldn't have to keep, you know, sleep with one eye open anymore, that the feds are going to come along and charge them. If you are a non custodial developer, you shouldn't have to sleep with one eye open. If you're developing software, if you're a coder, if you're not a third party user and you're not helping and knowing the third party is using what you develop to commit crimes, you are not going to be investigated. And you're not going to be charged. He went on to say, the mere fact that you happen to be a coder doesn't excuse you from criminal liability. Of course.
David
So you know who would love to hear that?
Ryan
Who?
David
Roman Storm. Has anyone told the people prosecuting Roman Storm what they are doing?
Ryan
Okay, so this is a question of like, what are they saying versus what are they doing? And, and I was kind of confused at this because Roman Storm we reported, we talked about earlier in April, he's actually being retried by Jay Clayton and the Southern District of New York. And Jay Clayton is the U.S. attorney General for the Southern District of New York. And they're deciding to re prosecute him. They just made this decision in April. And yet here is Todd Blanche, the acting Attorney General of the DOJ from Washington D.C. coming into a bitcoin conference saying we're not going to charge non custodial developers. So like, what gives here? Why is there a discrepancy? Do you have any theories on this?
David
I mean, my, my theory is that they're just not walking the walk. I don't know if that's a theory.
Ryan
I think that's what it seems like.
David
Yeah. It's like words, Words are cheap.
Ryan
Yeah. This is Peter from Coin center who said that, you know, this is a better message coming from Todd Blanche than we've received in the past from the doj. But it's still not enough. It's still not sufficient. A publication I follow called the Rage reported on this. The DOJ cannot credibly claim it has changed the game while still prosecuting Roman Storm. The precedent the Southern District of New York is trying to set is wholly at odds with Blanche's memo and the President's policy. Because there's this question of like, how much did the non custodial developer know about nefarious actors using it? In the Roman Storm case, knowing was reduced to a single federal officer email asking to launder some proceeds. And you know, that was enough, or you know, Roman Storm's registration of a user interface or a domain that, you know, that could be enough to prosecute him. So we don't have enough clarity in this case. And there does seem to be a discrepancy because on kind of the hierarchy here, Todd Blanche, the acting Attorney general who we just heard from, he should be the top dog, he should be the doj. He's top of the food chain. And yet Jay Clayton, who is more of a local prosecutor, he has autonomy to kind of run his own cases. But Blanche does Have the ability to tell Jay Clayton, call off the dogs. To call off the dogs. And that hasn't happened yet. So will that happen to me? If that happens, then they're actually serious about this statement. If it doesn't, it's still lip service.
David
Do you think that Todd Blanche just knows about the Roman Storm case or does not know about the Roman Storm case? And so the disconnect is definitely no.
Ryan
So he was asked about it at the conference, didn't really have a good answer. Maybe it's like a unique case to them. It's kind of carve outs because North Korea was involved because of the amounts. So this code is not crime shift. Seems mainly like it applies to new cases going forward. Not to Roman Storm. But again, I mean unless it applies to Roman Storm, I don't understand how they can be serious.
David
Roman Storm tweeted one. That's a real test.
Ryan
Yeah, I mean he said you can be pro. This is Roman Storm. You can be prosecuted for your software. You will get prosecuted. You know, he's reporting the rage of report like article that I mentioned earlier. So Roman Storm and his legal team does not see this as sufficient or that they're treating this seriously while his case is still ongoing. Right.
David
Ryan, we save just the best news for last. The most exciting news in the whole weekly roll up. Are you ready to talk about it? Oh yeah.
Ryan
Let's do it.
David
Stablecoins and meta first stable coins, Visa stablecoin growth $7 billion run rate that's up 50% quarter over quarter. So just, it's just a statement on. Just the, just industry sector growth of stablecoins used in payment by tradfi companies. So that's pretty cool. Congratulations.
Ryan
And they're adding all these chains, right? They're adding all the chains they can. ARC based.
David
ARC based count on Polygon, Tempo, some, some of these I like, some of these I don't. The, but the, the big news out of meta is that meta has started to pay some of his creators. You know how all the social media applications, Instagram, X, X, they all kind of like pay creators now because that's just the meta of paying people to.
Ryan
Actually I didn't know that. I know on, on X people get paid but it's happening in meta.
David
Like YouTube started it.
Ryan
Oh for sure. Forever ago. Oh I guess so.
David
And then, and then like X copied them and then now Meta copies them and so there's just like native payments for impressions built into the app. Right, right. So like I, I have. Do you have your ex creator Like I do. Yeah.
Ryan
I get what you make per month.
David
I get like $90 every two weeks. Oh dude. I get nothing.
Ryan
$400 a month.
David
David. That's pretty good. That's pretty good.
Ryan
That's not bad. That's not bad.
David
Yeah, it's something. Anyways. Meta, I don't. I get zero dollars from Instagram, but other people do. And so Meta allows stablecoin payouts for Instagram creators with Stripe. And the cool thing I thought about this is like it's. It's one thing if you're in the United States and you don't really. You don't really need this because you're just.
Ryan
Wait, the payout. The payouts are in Stable coins us
David
on Solana or Polygon through Stripe. Stripe.
Ryan
Oh very cool.
David
Stripe is the. The just a manager, the mediator ties. It also generates tax documents which is also important for these big companies tied to the actual creator earnings. But one important thing is, is like, you know, Instagram creators are global, so are X. But Instagram too I guess. And so a lot of this hap is made easier because they are able to pay out people from any country that's not really well serviced in the banking sector. 100 so the logistically speaking, so much easier for them to pay out creators with USDC on Solana or Polygon supported by Stripe with tax documents than it is to have to just like navigate the mesh network of.
Ryan
You gotta imagine they'll use Tempo too, right?
David
Yeah, you imagine whatever they want.
Ryan
This is a new consumer wallet or I don't know if it's new. Maybe it's been Existence, but that's rolling out the stablecoin support that I believe Meta is officially going to push to. And it's called the Link wallet from Stripe. But basically it's a consumer crypto wallet.
David
Yeah, it's like a. It's like a shop competitor. It's. You can, you can use a credit card in it, but you can also use stablecoins as well.
Ryan
Stripe is just shipping really hard when it comes to stablecoins.
David
Speaking of highly valued private companies that I don't have access to.
Ryan
Oh yeah, well you will once it hits over a trillion dollars, Dave. And you can buy publicly like all the other players. So there's that for you guys. Let's end with this. None of this has been financial advice. You know, crypto's risky. You could lose what you put in. But we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone. But we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey. Thanks a lot.
Date: May 1, 2026
Hosts: Ryan & David
This weekly rollup dives into the collision of global macro volatility and roaring risk markets. The hosts discuss how soaring oil prices due to the Iran war contrast with record equity highs, the masking influence of the AI boom, the coming wave of historic tech IPOs (and whether these signal a market top), the largest DeFi hack in history and an unprecedented community-led bailout, evolving U.S. crypto policy, and the latest in crypto regulatory drama. The conversation is fast-paced and nuanced, balancing humor with deep analysis.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Oil Spike
Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset
DeFi's Greatest Rescue
Relentless DeFi Exploits
Mega ETH Token Launch
Bitcoin Policy & Macro Narratives
Prediction Markets: Crime and Punishment
Jurisdiction Tussle: CFTC vs Wisconsin
“Code is Not a Crime”—But Is It?
Stablecoins & Traditional Payments
| Segment | Highlight | Timestamp | |-------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Oil/War | $120+ oil, Hormuz block, US-Iran tension | 00:00–10:21 | | AI & Markets | AI boom outweighs macro risk, stocks ATH | 17:22–21:16 | | IPO Top Signal | Giant tech IPOs as exit liquidity, top signal debate | 19:48–23:10 | | Fed/Inflation | Powell steps down, divided FOMC, inflation ticks up | 27:31–34:29 | | DeFi Bailout | Massive community-led rescue, hack frequency | 39:03–44:54 | | Crypto Regulation | DOJ says “code is not crime,” but actions differ | 52:14–55:22 | | TradFi Stablecoins | Meta/Stripe pay creators with USDC, Visa stablecoin boom | 56:18–58:25 | | Prediction Market Crime | Insider arrest proves on-chain bets are traceable | 49:20–50:28 |
This episode captures the bizarre dichotomy of 2026: rising geopolitical risks and costly energy meet exuberant financial markets and tech innovation. AI’s influence is so profound that it overshadows war and inflation signals—for now. Yet, the coming months’ IPO wave may test this further. DeFi’s capacity for self-repair is on display, just as the community faces unprecedented technical and legal challenges. Crypto regulation remains piecemeal and ambiguous, but stablecoins and blockchain-based finance quietly continue to thread deeper into the world’s economic circuits.
“None of this has been financial advice. You know crypto's risky. You could lose what you put in. But we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone. But we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey.” (58:53, Ryan)