Bankless Weekly Rollup – “Buy Signal? | Fusaka Launch | Polymarket Mainstream | Trump’s Fed Chair | SEC Crypto Shift”

Podcast: Bankless
Date: December 5, 2025
Hosts: David Hoffman (B), Ryan Sean Adams (A)

Episode Overview

This week’s Bankless Rollup serves as a comprehensive pulse check on crypto as 2025 draws to a close. The hosts—David and Ryan—tackle market momentum, Ethereum’s major Fusaka upgrade, the prediction market wars, regulatory winds (including SEC innovation exemptions and Trump’s hinted new Fed Chair), and evolving institutional attitudes towards crypto. Amidst the analysis and banter, the tone is optimistic yet cautious: Are we in a muted bear market, or is mainstream adoption quietly gaining steam?

Table of Contents

1. Market Sentiment: Bear, Bullish, or Meh?
2. Bitcoin in Gold Terms: Is It a Buy Signal?
3. Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Scaling, Sharding, & Vitalik’s Challenge
4. Polymarket, Kalshi, and the Prediction Market Boom
5. Regulatory Shifts: SEC, Trump’s Fed, and State-Level Friction
6. Institutional Adoption: Larry Fink, Schwab, BoA & The “Four-Year Cycle”
7. Tether FUD & Stablecoin Reserves
8. Aztec’s Unique ETH Auction & ICO Resurgence
9. Crypto in Law: UK Property Rights Milestone
10. Memes, Vibes & The State of Bankless Nation

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1. Market Sentiment: Bear, Bullish, or Meh?

• Mountain-climbing Metaphors: David is back from his exhausting climbs; plans easier hobbies for 2026.
• Is it a bear market? Ryan notes consensus is leaning that way, but “it’s a green week” and not all hope is lost.
• “I kind of feel like consensus is moving in that direction [bear market]… I have not quite given up hope.” — Ryan (01:22)
• Price check:
  • Bitcoin is up 2% on the week (“92,350 dollars…feeling way better than the 84,000 that we were at earlier this week.” — David, 07:21)
  • ETH is up 6% at $3,200
  • Total crypto market cap: $3.25T
• Both expect a muted, shallow downturn rather than catastrophic crashes:
  • “I do not think…anything’s going to blow up. There’s no Three Arrows Capital. There’s no FTX.” — David (14:51)
  • A “very mellow” winter at worst.

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2. Bitcoin in Gold Terms: Is It a Buy Signal?

• Bitcoin is “cheaper relative to gold than almost any point in the last 15 years.” (08:01)
• Mark Connors (ex-Credit Suisse) says institutions still prefer gold for the store-of-value trade.
  • “Central banks…still prefer gold… Bitcoin is still a newcomer.” — Ryan (09:17)
• Higher rates benefit gold more than BTC; shows Bitcoin’s maturation.
• Market signals suggest Bitcoin could be primed for “catchup” against gold, eventually.

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3. Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Scaling, Sharding, & Vitalik’s Challenge

• Second major ETH upgrade of the year: Fusaka brings “peerDAS”—real data sharding for L2 scaling.
  • 8x more L2 blobs/data, 25% more L1 throughput (“default block capacity [up] from 45M to 60M… a 25% increase” — Ryan, 44:41)
• Minor hiccup: 36% of the network (Prism client) went offline, but Ethereum’s multi-client architecture prevented disruption.
  • “Prism…had a bug, which lost 26% of the network…multi-client is just so beautiful and elegant.” — David (41:16)
  • “Nothing wrong with losing finalization once in a while…in my opinion.” — Vitalik, paraphrased by Ryan (41:47)
• Vitalik’s Challenge: L1 is so scalable and cheap now that apps should consider returning. He envisions a “full sharding + zkEVMs” future, possibly within three years.
• Block Times: Now under serious review: “Six second slots are fully specced…can ship next year…But we shouldn’t stop there.” — Tony at EF, quoted by David (46:10)
• Sentiment: ETH dev momentum is real; “Promises made, promises kept.” (47:28)
• Memorable moment:
  • “We sharded the blobs left and right. I am sharting myself just thinking about how great this is.” — Ryan (43:52, 59:43)

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4. Polymarket, Kalshi, and the Prediction Market Boom

• Polymarket’s U.S. debut: Acquired exchanges for $112M to fast-track CFTC approval; launched a top-5 sports app; now open to U.S. users.
  • “How did Polymarket speed run US entry? They just bought [the required] exchanges.” — David (31:19)
• Competition with Kalshi:
  • Shane Copeland (Polymarket) and Luana Lopez Lara (Kalshi) are now the youngest self-made billionaires (27 and 29).
  • Polymarket: $4.3B spot volume last month; Kalshi: $5.8B
  • Kalshi partners with CNN; Polymarket highlighted on 60 Minutes.
• Regulatory clouds:
  • Kalshi hit by class action lawsuit and state AGs (Nevada, Massachusetts, NY, Maryland, Ohio) trying to label event bets as illegal gambling.
  • David is bullish lawsuits will settle core legality: “Call she gets the opportunity to just like put to rest…and hopefully set some court precedent.” (39:26)
• Shane Copeland on Trump Jr.'s advisory role (35:12):
  • “It’s definitely not to protect myself…I need help navigating that [the pro-innovation climate]. I’m a young entrepreneur…nothing wrong with that.”

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5. Regulatory Shifts: SEC, Trump’s Fed, and State-Level Friction

• Trump hints at new Fed Chair:
  • Kevin Hassett (“rate cut guy,” pro-crypto, 7-figure COIN stake), “one of us.” — Ryan (17:11)
  • “What does Trump want? He wants rate cuts…Kevin Hassett is the rate cut guy.” — David (16:21)
• Fed Dovishness ≠ Liquidity:
  • “Dovish Fed means money printing” might not automatically follow; fiscal deficits and the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) are critical. (17:40)
• SEC’s “Innovation Exemption” for crypto:
  • Expected January 2026 — will offer project clarity and “safe harbor” to revive on-chain launches.
  • “This would never have happened under Gensler.” — Bill Hughes, on ICO legal memos (54:40)

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6. Institutional Adoption: Larry Fink, Schwab, BoA & The “Four-Year Cycle”

• Larry Fink (BlackRock) op-ed: All-in on tokenization, compares today’s state to the Internet in 1996.
  • “Tokenization today is roughly where the internet was in 1996…enormous growth over the coming decades.” — Larry Fink (Read by Ryan, 21:05)
  • “Tokenization is a real thing and we are now bullish on blockchain technology.” — David (22:05)
• Brian Armstrong & Larry Fink buddy up; Armstrong appears next to Fink in mainstream media, as Coinbase and BlackRock relationship deepens.
  • On changing his mind:
    “I have very strong views, but that doesn’t mean I’m not wrong…my thought process always evolves.” — Larry Fink (23:52)
• Other Wall Street Moves:
  • Bank of America allows up to 4% BTC allocation in managed portfolios.
  • Charles Schwab announces BTC/ETH trading for 2026, possibly via “white-labeled” Coinbase platform.
  • Steady mainstream capital inflow = shallow cycles?
    • “Why I see a muted bear market… globally the pipes are just widening and capital is slowly trickling in.” — David (26:10)
    • “The only thing I’ll say is every four-year cycle, we always say the four-year cycle is dead.” — Ryan (26:43)

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7. Tether FUD & Stablecoin Reserves

• Arthur Hayes and risk in Tether’s reserves:
  • 80% cash-like reserves; 20% riskier (gold, BTC). Arthur notes a 30% crash would “wipe out their equity.”
  • Ryan & David’s take: Risk exists but is smaller than fractional reserve banks; Tether is “nowhere near insolvency.”
  • “They could redeem like 80% of tether before they’d have to sell their bitcoin and gold.” — David (52:53)
  • “They’re taking some risk here, but it’s not excessive.” — Ryan (53:13)

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8. Aztec’s Unique ETH Auction & ICO Resurgence

• Aztec launches a continuous clearing, ETH-denominated auction for their token.
  • “This is an ICO, a defi ICO, is it not?” — Ryan (54:07)
  • “They’re just hardcore cypherpunks…completely Defi.” — David (54:27)
• Full legal memos for four jurisdictions — only possible thanks to the Gensler-to-Atkins SEC shift.
  • “This would never have happened under the Gensler administration.” — Bill Hughes, summarized by Ryan (54:40)
• More to come: Bankless teases an upcoming episode on new ICO mechanisms.

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9. Crypto in Law: UK Property Rights Milestone

• King Charles III signs law defining digital assets as new, third type of property.
  • “Before…the only property that the UK recognized was physical stuff…now, digital assets can be…a legitimate property.” — Ryan (56:44)
  • “The biggest property rights change in probably the last century for the UK.” (57:52)
  • David’s take: “Just British stuff, man.” (58:13)

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10. Memes, Vibes & The State of Bankless Nation

• Meme of the Week:
  • John Wu tweets: Sad, lonely mall Santa = “how it feels to be optimistic about crypto right now.”
• Closing Vibes:
  • The Bankless community stands together through market cycles.
  • “If you’re feeling early in the season, we are here with you…Crypto is risky, none of this has been financial advice.” — Ryan (58:58)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On developer momentum:
  • “If we want to increase layer one usage, lower the block times…and we shouldn’t stop there.” — Tony from EF (46:10)
• On prediction market explainers:
  • “You make money if you’re right, you lose if you’re wrong…As more people wager and news breaks, the odds change.” — Shane Copeland (paraphrased, 34:40)
• On institutional adoption:
  • “It’s okay—we are now bullish blockchain.” — David (22:05, channeling Larry Fink)
• On cycle predictions:
  • “Every four-year cycle, we always say the four-year cycle is dead.” — Ryan (26:43)

Recommended Listening Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |----------------------------------|-----------------| | Bitcoin’s gold valuation signal | 08:01–10:22 | | Ethereum Fusaka/Shard upgrade | 41:00–47:50 | | Polymarket mainstream moment | 31:17–35:12 | | Trump’s Fed Chair & macro | 16:03–18:30 | | Larry Fink’s tokenization piece | 21:05–24:32 |

Final Thoughts

This Rollup is a blend of grounded optimism (in scaling, in evolving regulatory posture, in institutional momentum) and practical skepticism (on market cycles, stablecoin risk, and regulatory headwinds). Ethereum’s scale-up, the prediction market arms race, and the mainstream’s embrace of tokenization all signal crypto’s next phase—slow, grinding, but inexorable evolution towards broader adoption.

For further detail or transcript references, see original timestamps throughout the summary.