Bankless Weekly Rollup – January 9, 2026

Episode Theme:
A sweeping rundown of the week’s biggest crypto stories, with a focus on the intersection of traditional finance and DeFi, prediction markets and thorny regulatory questions, the ongoing evolution of Ethereum and Solana, and high-profile developments in stablecoins and privacy tech. The show balances deep dives into major headlines with rapid-fire analysis and signature banter between hosts Ryan and David.

Main Topics Covered

• Insider trading and regulation in prediction markets (Torres Bill, Maduro’s capture on PolyMarket)
• Solana DEX volume and role as the “trading chain”
• New all-time-highs in Ethereum’s stablecoin transfer volume
• Zcash implosion following the dev team exodus
• Lighter token airdrop: TVL, market impact, and ecosystem comparisons to Hyperliquid
• Vitalik Buterin’s claim that Ethereum’s “blockchain trilemma” is solved
• Major moves in ETF filings by banks like Morgan Stanley
• US control of potentially vast Venezuelan bitcoin reserves
• The expanding role of state-backed stablecoins (Wyoming’s launch)
• Broader reflections on value, freedom, and the future direction of blockchains

Predictions, Insider Trading & The Torres Bill

[00:04] – [21:33]

• PolyMarket & Prediction Markets: The recent capture of President Maduro became a global headline, but crypto Twitter buzzed even louder about a single trader who placed a major "yes" bet on Maduro’s capture just four hours before it went public.
• Richie Torres (Congress): Responded with a new bill targeting insider trading by government employees on prediction markets, acknowledging growing concern over how information is weaponized via on-chain platforms.

“At some level, what is being created here is a public good because it did increase the odds and our knowledge in the world that Maduro was actually going to be captured… But it feels unfair, doesn't it? …I don't think it's that employee – like that government insiders, it shouldn't just be theirs; they shouldn't get all the proceeds from this.”
— Ryan, [16:24]

• Public Good or Unfair Edge?: Hosts weigh the transparency benefits of markets (skin in the game, better information for all) vs. outsized profits from information asymmetry, especially if sourced from government leaks.
• Open Questions: Would a clumsy law snuff out a valuable experiment for decentralized truth-seeking? And how do you prove whether a trader has “legitimate” insight or true inside knowledge?

Solana: Surging DEX Volume and Trading Chain Narrative

[08:17] – [10:29]

• Volume Milestone: In 2025, Solana DEX volume ($1.6T) eclipsed almost all centralized exchanges except Binance, taking 12% of spot market share.
• Differentiation: Not just meme coins—70%+ of volume is in SOL/USD pairs, powered by rapid block times and prop AMM innovation that blurs the orderbook/liquidity pool distinction.

“You kind of have to tip your hat to the fast block speeds of Solana.”
— David, [09:56]

• Positioning Solana: The chain is evolving as the DeFi home for “the trade verb”, with the fastest, most competitive on-chain trading experience.
• Contrast with Ethereum: Ethereum remains the reigning king for stablecoin payments and large-scale settlement, with $18.8T settled in 2025.

Stablecoins ATH & Banks Enter the Game

[10:29] – [12:24]

• Ethereum’s Growth: Q4 stablecoin transfer volume doubled over Q2, making Ethereum a key payments layer even as others tout “real world asset” narratives.
• Wall Street Jumps In: Morgan Stanley’s surprise filing for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs marks the first major US bank to make such a move, signaling a deepening shift from “crypto resistance” to embrace.

“All of the banks, the big brand name banks, are no longer resisting crypto. It definitely marks the change of the era.”
— Ryan, [11:53]

Bitcoin & ETH: Volatility, Prices & Market Maturity

[04:19] – [06:36]

• Bitcoin’s Quiet Year: 2025 featured record-low volatility (2.24% daily), making it more palatable for institutional portfolios; more “Sharpe-ratio-friendly.”
• Market Cap Perspective: Crypto total market cap sits at $3.17T, impressive from a historical zoom-out, but down 14% YoY.
• Market Maturity: “Easy money” cycles are over; going forward, only protocols with real value will flourish.

Zcash Implosion: Governance Gone Wrong

[27:42] – [30:44]

• Sudden Selloff: Zcash dumps as the Electric Coin Company (dev team) quits, following funding battles and disputes over protocol-level developer rewards—12% of block rewards were put in limbo, leading to team exodus.
• Systemic Issues: Dev team rage-quitting highlights the dangers of relying on block reward-funded DAOs for open source protocol maintenance.

“My question is, why did the zcash token dump? Because it definitely didn't pump for any reason related to the development of zcash.”
— David, [29:48]

Lighter Token Drop: Airdrop Mania and Market Response

[06:07], [31:13] – [34:25]

• Airdrop Impact: Lighter’s $675M airdrop (25% of supply) caused a $250M exodus (20% TVL) from its platform—less than some expected.
• Market Value: After a volatile debut ($3.3B to $2B FDV, then recovery), Lighter is viewed as a strong, UX-forward competitor to Hyperliquid.
• Farming Dynamics: Pools were lucrative (60% APY for liquidity provision), but farming was capped unless you also traded on platform.

Vitalik’s “Trilemma Solved” – and the Future of Ethereum

[35:27] – [45:43]

• Vitalik’s Big Claim:

  “The Trilemma has been solved, not on paper but with live running code…”
  — Vitalik (quoted by Ryan), [36:15]

• What’s the Blockchain Trilemma? Security, decentralization, and scalability—only two can be optimized, or so theory held.
• Ethereum’s Solution: Data availability sampling (“blobs”) and zkEVMs are now production-quality, with capacity far outstripping demand. “You can have all three.”
• Nuanced Take: While Ethereum remains slower than Solana, it prioritizes maximum freedom and decentralization. Block times could go as low as 2 seconds without significant risks; ultra-fast chains risk centralization.

“We value the values of Ethereum, decentralization, property rights, censorship resistance, more than we value finance. And those come first.”
— David, [41:27]

• Governance and “Soul”: Don Krad counters that not all use cases need hyper-decentralization; maybe only “digital gold” does, and Ethereum’s choices reflect that.

Major Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If I was a world leader now, I would have my people monitoring prediction markets for me being captured…”
  — Ryan, [16:51]
• “Crypto is the perfect breeding ground for stupid stuff.”
  — David, [07:45]
• “I appreciate tokens that launch with very simple token like total supply numbers, like 1 billion for example.”
  — David, [33:13]
• “Ethereum is the tortoise.”
  — David, [45:43]
• “May the state wars begin.”
  — Ryan, [49:58]

Other Highlights

Zama: Privacy Layers for Crypto

[01:28] – [02:42]

• Zama introduces “HTTPZ” for encrypted, private smart contracts layered atop Ethereum—a “missing piece” for on-chain privacy.

Ray Dalio’s Market Take

[02:54] – [04:19]

• Recaps 2025 as a “devaluation of the dollar trade”; S&P might be up in USD terms, but down 28% in gold.

Polymarket’s Real Estate Bets

[24:29] – [25:39]

• New category lets users trade on home price indices and other real estate metrics, aiming for price efficiency and more open data.

The US & Venezuela’s Bitcoin Reserves

[21:33] – [23:43]

• After the capture of Maduro, rumors swirl that the US may seize up to 600k BTC (though only hundreds are confirmed); hosts debate whether any asset haul truly belongs to the Venezuelan people.

State Stablecoins

[48:14] – [49:48]

• Wyoming launches the first fully state-backed (and yield-accruing for the state) stablecoin on Solana; hosts imagine a world of “statecoin” competition mapped across chains.

SEC Update

[45:55] – [46:29]

• Commissioner Crenshaw, the last Gensler-era skeptic, resigns—potentially ushering a pro-crypto era for US securities regulation.

Payments: Bitcoin at Starbucks & Walmart

[46:29] – [48:14]

• Big-box adoption of direct crypto payments has become “meh”—hosts see more promise in native stablecoin payment rails.

Closing Reflections

• The episode is optimistic about the maturing crypto market—there’s less “free money,” more selectivity, and big players from TradFi entering in earnest.
• Hosts maintain faith in Ethereum’s design north star but appreciate the diversity of chains and approaches.
• Tech and policy progress is rapid, but regulatory overreach and internal blockchain governance remain key fault lines to watch in 2026.

Key Timestamps

• [00:04] – Prediction markets, insider trading (Torres bill, Maduro)
• [08:17] – Solana DEX all-time high, order book/AMM innovation
• [10:29] – Ethereum stablecoin ATH, L1 as payment/settlement
• [11:03] – Morgan Stanley ETF filings
• [14:11] – Detailed breakdown of the “Maduro bet” and Torres’s bill
• [25:39] – Real estate prediction markets on Polymarket
• [27:42] – Zcash dev team resignation, governance funding debate
• [31:13] – Lighter airdrop, TVL and market comp to Hyperliquid
• [35:27] – Vitalik, the trilemma “solved,” Ethereum scaling roadmap
• [45:55] – SEC update, Crenshaw’s resignation
• [48:14] – Wyoming state stablecoin launch

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode unpacks the major headlines shaping 2026: new regulatory risks for prediction markets, the institutional flood into crypto ETFs, the growing specialization of layer-1s, and Vitalik’s vision for Ethereum’s endgame. The blend of technical, regulatory, and market-driven discussion makes it an indispensable snapshot of crypto’s new normal.