In this eye-opening episode of Based Camp, Malcolm and Simone Collins dive into a paradoxical dataset: despite widespread narratives of violence against trans and non-binary individuals, statistics from organizations like HRC, A4TE, and TGEU reveal shockingly low rates of violent deaths—far below the general population, especially for non-Black trans people. They crunch the numbers, debunk myths, and explore potential explanations: Could it be hormone therapy reducing aggression? Social isolation keeping them safer? Hidden privilege or something else entirely? The conversation also covers the overrepresentation of trans individuals in mass shootings, cultural vibes around gender, and wild tangents like AI hallucinations, hypnotism, and geopolitical musings. Buckle up for data-driven insights that challenge assumptions—no holds barred!

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Episode Transcript

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello Simone. Today we are gonna need to be talking about a paradox, which is, if you look at the organizations that Mark, how many trans or non-binary people die violent deaths a year?

The numbers are odd because they are always incredibly low, well, well below the general population. If we go with non-black trans individuals. That would mean that you have only 0.38 deaths per year combined to four per a hundred thousand for the general population. Which is wow,

Simone Collins: man,

Malcolm Collins: sanely low.

Specifically you would be looking at a rate that is around by, by some estimates, like if I go by a four TE’s estimates for non-black trans individuals, they have a, a violent death rate that would have to be multiplied by 10.5 to be the same as the regular non-trans [00:01:00] cis rate.

Simone Collins: What is their secret?

This is sign me up for this,

Malcolm Collins: and this is the reason I wanted to get into this is one, this goes directly to the opposite is trans people always would be like. Trans people, don’t you understand?

Simone Collins: Yeah. Something, something hate crimes and the police and everyone wants to beat me up. Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Well, the statistics don’t agree with you on that.

The statistics actually show that trans people live enormously privileged lives. And so the question is, is why, well, so we’ll be going into the statistics. Is it that they’re wealthier on average? Is it that they do less drugs on average? Is it that they like what could be causing this, right? What could be causing these?

And before I jump into the numbers here, if you wanna be like, well, these organizations say that these numbers aren’t exhaustive for the number of trans and non-binary people who are killed violently every year. It’s like, yeah, but they try really hard. Like,

Simone Collins: okay, Chris, question off the bat, when we’re comparing the, the trans rates of violent [00:02:00] deaths to the general population, are we talking men to men?

Or are we talking all men and women?

Malcolm Collins: We’re gonna go into that.

Simone Collins: Okay.

Malcolm Collins: But when we are talking these numbers if you are reading this, what somebody is going to say is hey. Malcolm those numbers is they couldn’t find every single trans and non-binary person who died violently to which I would push back and I’d be like, actually, the numbers are probably over counts, so I’ll explain why.

They’re probably over counts. First of all, being trans or non-binary. It’s not like being a member of some other communities where you’re not like. All in where your friends do not definitely notify these organizations, where these organizations do not definitely wanna make it look like tons of trans people are dying, right?

Like, this isn’t you, you’re not like, kind of in the trans lifestyle or something like that. It’s not like gay. We’re like. A person may have been gay and like they weren’t interested in telling like the big gay rights orgs or something like that. [00:03:00] It seems very unlikely, especially given how politically charged the topic is these days that individuals would not be.

Ed, and then you have the problem of, oh, somebody wore a dress one day or something like that. And the trans organizations in terms of trans shooters, which we’ll go over the data on that again. Yeah. Because it is, it is really twisted that they’re like, we are so much at risk from you when the actual studies, like if you actually just run the math, they are mass shooters at like, I think it’s like 10 x the rate and they are likely to be killed at like one 10th the rate.

Yeah. So, we’ve gotta go over. It, it’s so weird. It’s like, it’s like the, the wolf, you know, they’re deep in sheep carcasses, drenched in blood, being like, the sheep are always bullying me. You know, and so the question is. And this is just the data here. People like, we’re, we’re gonna go into these.

I will name the individuals we can go through, you can look them up. But what I will be pointing out [00:04:00] is that the number of trans mass shooters is sometimes inflated by conservatives who wanna find, you know, every potential person who could be, you know, wore a dress in one photo or something like that, right?

Mm-hmm. And I think that that is, you’re going to see a similar phenomenon from trans rights organizations where they’re going to want to inflate their numbers, so they’re gonna look for everyone they possibly can. Of course.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: And you’re not gonna have as many people to fight back against these organizations.

Miscategorizing, somebody who died as trans as you would have people trying to miss a fight back against people. Miscategorizing, a mass shooter is trans. And I would point out here that then if you’re gonna go, well, the mass shooter rate might be inflated. Because people was a reason to inflate the number might choose to in the way that they’re counting things.

Why do you say that For conservative orgs and then not the trans orgs that are counting the trans people who died from? So my guess is at the very, probably these numbers are over counted, but even if the numbers are not over [00:05:00] counted, it’s not like you doubled these numbers, or if you tripled these numbers, you would get a rate of equivalent to non-trans violent deaths.

You would need to increase them astronomically to get a number equivalent. And, and that’s just implausible to me that that’s the explanation, right? I think, yeah, if you were grabbing for that explanation you are just denying reality at this point. So let’s go over the specific orgs here. So the first thing to note is that for the first organization here, they very helpfully split out and, and pointed out that 70% of the people who had died of the trans people who had died were black.

And if you look across all of the studies, they all that black people. Trans black people die at a way higher violent rate than non-black trans people. Right? And this is why we able to talk about the white or the non-black, because the very low rates of Hispanic trans victimization as well.

Simone Collins: Well, but also do the rates of black trans people [00:06:00] dying violent deaths surpass those of just black people in America.

Malcolm Collins: I did not compare them by race, but what I can say is black trans people actually have about twice the rate of dying violently as non-trans people.

Simone Collins: Okay.

Malcolm Collins: So black trans people actually are at risk for being trans.

Simone Collins: Yeah. But I mean, I also just feel like being a black American, your odds of,

Malcolm Collins: well, the, yeah, the, the, the caveat here is they were also all almost killed by black people, almost all killed by black people.

Simone Collins: Well, same with also non-trans black people, so,

Malcolm Collins: right, right. But the black community is more, I guess you’d call, say, transphobic and homophobic than me.

White community, even though that’s, you know, goes against Progressive.

Simone Collins: Are we just saying what, what are these percentages that you’re looking at? Again, I think they’re percentages, right? I’m gonna try to find this out.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Okay. So rate per 1000 for black trans people. It’s 6.8 is the rate per a hundred thousand,

Simone Collins: Violent deaths, right?

Malcolm Collins: Violent deaths, yes. If I go to, and to get an idea of how different the black versus non-black rate is, [00:07:00] if I go to the non-black trans rate, and this is a for TE. Mm-hmm. 0.38. Remember it was 6.8 for blacks.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: And so this for blacks means it’s about twice normal. This for non-black trans means the normal rate is 10.5 x higher.

Simone Collins: So what did you say it was for? It was six per thousand.

Malcolm Collins: 6.8

Simone Collins: per. 6.8 per a hundred thousand for, for black trans people. Yeah. It’s, it’s 29 per a hundred thousand for black Americans.

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