Iran: The Latest – "America’s biggest mistake in the Iran war so far"

Date: March 18, 2026
Hosts: Venetia Rainey, Arthur Scott Geddes
Guests: Roland Oliphant, Gareth Caulfield, Paul Newqui

EPISODE OVERVIEW

This episode of Iran: The Latest dives into two central themes as the Iran war enters its 19th day:

1. The escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, including mass displacement and civilian suffering.
2. A deep investigation into the U.S. cruise missile strike that destroyed a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing over 165 people—mostly children—on the first day of the war. The hosts scrutinize how the tragedy happened, the evidence for U.S. responsibility, the explosion of propaganda and misinformation, and the failures in U.S. targeting intelligence.

1. Political Shocks in the U.S. and Iran (02:36–04:17)

• U.S. Dissension: Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigns in protest against the Iran war—the first senior Trump official to do so.

  • Kent’s resignation letter denounces the war as driven by Israeli and pro-Israel lobbies, not by an imminent Iranian threat.
  • Venetia Rainey: “This war is tearing the MAGA base apart... a schism over the war, but then a broader schism over foreign intervention and anything to do with Israel.” (03:46)

• Iranian Retaliation: Iran confirms killing of Security Chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli strike, followed by Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Tel Aviv (killing an elderly couple) and coalition military bases in the Gulf.

  • First execution of an Israeli spy in Iran since the renewed conflict.
  • NATO divisions persist, with Trump criticizing members for not opening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • New executions, limited Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon.

2. On the Ground in Lebanon: Israel–Hezbollah War (05:19–18:48)

Humanitarian Crisis and Israeli Tactics

• Mass Displacement: 1 in 5 Lebanese now displaced or under evacuation orders—nearly a million displaced. Beirut is overflowing with refugees.

  • Paul Newqui: “Beirut is packed now with displaced people, most of them from the south... Heavily overcrowded centers, families sleeping in classrooms and playgrounds.” (07:25)
  • Over 900 deaths, 2,000+ wounded since March 2.

• Israeli Incursion & Tactics:

  • Targeted strikes on Hezbollah operatives, arms depots, and academic figures.
  • Use of leaflets and explicit warnings reminiscent of the Gaza campaign—threats to expand buffer zones south of the Litani River.
  • Venetia Rainey: “References to Israel trying to repeat what they did in Gaza... A lot of talk about Israel potentially trying to take over everything south of the Litani river.” (08:15)

• Lebanese Government’s Weakness:

  • Efforts to disarm Hezbollah, but outgunned and fearful of sparking another civil war.
  • Israeli pressure risks uniting Lebanese society behind Hezbollah.
  • Paul Newqui: “You really can’t wipe out an idea and an ideology with guns... It’s very difficult to bomb a people into submission.” (13:15)

• Unique Reporting from Nabi Sheet:

  • Israeli commandos raided the village searching for a missing airman; heavy casualties and a huge crater left behind.
  • Residents defiant, supporting Hezbollah amid devastation.
  • Memorable on-site quote (11:08):
    "There is a vast crater in the square behind me... Locals say this hit and several others were designed to cut the road so that the Israeli commandos could escape."

• Diplomatic Maneuvering:

  • Rumored U.S. and Israeli pressure for Syria to intervene in Lebanon—Damascus is resistant.
  • Lebanese government offers direct talks with Israel for the first time; Israel declines but academic sources suggest possible negotiations.

• Three Scenarios for Lebanon (18:51):

  1. Israeli pressure leads to negotiations.
  2. Prolonged, destructive "rubbilization" campaign.
  3. U.S. withdrawal from Iran prompts broader ceasefire.
  • Paul Newqui: “Some people are even saying it could lead to the literal breaking up of the country with different groups demanding different sovereignty.” (19:40)

3. The Minab Primary School Tragedy – Evidence, Propaganda, and Targeting Failure (22:11–47:25)

Setting the Scene in Minab

• Background: On February 28—the war’s first day—a cruise missile strike on the Sharjah Tayebe Elementary School in Minab kills over 165, mostly children.
  • Mass graves dug immediately afterwards.
  • Roland Oliphant: “About 20 past 10ish, parents start getting phone calls saying, look, please can you come get your kids. The school's being closed because a war's just begun.” (24:22)

Establishing Blame and Initial U.S. Responses

• Local and Iranian Assumptions: Immediate assumption it was a U.S. strike—school was adjacent to an IRGC base, not previously targeted by Israel.
• U.S. and Trump Administration:
  • Publicly evasive; Secretary of War Pete Hegseth repeatedly says "we're investigating."
  • Trump (on Air Force One) deflects, blaming Iran directly.
    • Trump: “Based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” (29:25)
  • Venetia Rainey: “All the evidence now points to one culprit, the United States. If confirmed, it would rank among the worst civilian casualty incidents in decades of US military involvement in the Middle East.” (22:34)

Forensic and Open Source Analysis (30:06–41:38)

• Satellite & Open Source Evidence:

  • Satellite images confirm school’s destruction.
  • School had been physically walled off from the IRGC compound since at least 2016.
  • Social media and eyewitness accounts corroborate mass casualty event.

• Weapon Forensics:

  • Video freeze-frames and experts unequivocally identify a Tomahawk missile (U.S.-only weapon in-theatre).
    • Gareth Caulfield: “Freeze frame it, it is unequivocally a Tomahawk. A great number of experts...verify independently. This is a Tomahawk.” (31:15)
  • Missile debris, including actuator motors and radar components, confirm Tomahawk use.

• U.S. Investigation: CENTCOM launches formal investigation with an outside officer (35:01–35:40)

Misinformation and Propaganda

• Conspiracy Theories: Social media explodes with claims—including the IRGC staged the attack, or misfired their own rocket, or imported frozen bodies for propaganda (parallels to Russia’s MH17 disinformation).
  • Roland Oliphant: “The Russians tried exactly the same thing when they shot down MH17 in 2014...the bodies...must have been in a freezer.” (38:10)
• Iranian Propaganda: Regime co-opts funerals for televised displays of loyalty to the martyred Supreme Leader; families feel grief co-opted for state propaganda.

How Did the U.S. Get It Wrong? What Failed? (40:05–46:11)

• Targeting Error:

  • U.S. meant to strike IRGC Naval Medical Clinic next door, but failed to update intelligence after the school was walled off.

  • The mistake echoes infamous U.S. target verification failures:

    • Jonathan Hackett (ex-Marine intel): “In 1991 during the Gulf War...a bunker strike where they believed Saddam was hiding. Something like 300 plus civilians were killed. 1999 in Kosovo, the US struck the Chinese embassy...because that information was old targeting data...” (41:39)

  • “I think what happened in this case, very similar situation. You’re in a denied area...And also a very low level of government will on the US side to verify things. As we saw Hegseth during his press release, the very first one, he said, ‘we don’t need those silly rules of engagement’. Well, those... are the guardrails... to actually verify... the target.” (Jonathan Hackett, 42:28)

• AI in Targeting:

  • Increased use of AI to collate and prioritize targets is raising risks—e.g. a park named “Police Park” was bombed for its name, not its use.
  • Reliance on automation without validation is a growing concern.
  • Arthur Scott Geddes: “A kind of new frontier...the way that AI is being used to kind of prosecute a war of this kind.” (46:11)

• Accountability Concerns:

  • Pentagon division tasked with civilian harm mitigation was decimated under Trump prior to the war.
  • Venetia Rainey: “Someone didn’t do their job properly...these were first day targets, right? ...clearly that didn’t happen here.” (45:40)

Broader Implications (43:27–47:25)

• Narrative & Propaganda Battle: The Minab tragedy has become a focal point of information warfare and propaganda for both sides, shaping domestic and global opinion regardless of the facts.

• Accountability and Transparency:

  • American admission and investigation into the incident is a rare positive, but future transparency is in doubt due to increasing intelligence blackouts and lack of third-party verification (e.g., satellite imagery delays).

• Philosophical Lesson:

  • Gareth Caulfield: “We are increasingly reliant on smart weapons, precise targeting, GPS coordinates...If journalists...can look up this school and say ‘oh, that’s a school,’ then you expect military intelligence personnel...to have access to the same info.” (44:27)

NOTABLE QUOTES & MOMENTS WITH TIMESTAMPS

• On MAGA Division:
  “This war is tearing the MAGA base apart... a schism over the war, but then a broader schism over foreign intervention and anything to do with Israel.” (Venetia Rainey, 03:46)

• On the Realities for Displaced in Beirut:
  “Beirut is packed now with displaced people, most of them from the south... Heavily overcrowded centers, families sleeping in classrooms and playgrounds.” (Paul Newqui, 07:25)

• On the Limits of Military Power:
  “You really can’t wipe out an idea and an ideology with guns... it’s very difficult to bomb a people into submission. And America has found this over and over again.” (Paul Newqui, 13:15)

• On U.S. Responsibility:
  “All of the evidence now points to one culprit, the United States. If confirmed, it would rank among the worst civilian casualty incidents in decades of US military involvement in the Middle East.” (Venetia Rainey, 22:34)

• On Targeting Errors:
  “I wouldn’t be surprised if the US did almost nothing to verify that that building still was what it said it was on the Excel spreadsheet...” (Jonathan Hackett, 42:28)

• On Technology and Accountability:
  “We are increasingly reliant on smart weapons... But we must take greater care over the selection of those targets... If journalists can look up this school... then you expect military intelligence... to have access to the same information.” (Gareth Caulfield, 44:27)

• On Information Blackouts:
  “This war is becoming an increasingly black box and so all we have is the propaganda from both sides.” (Venetia Rainey, 46:58)

CONCLUSION

This episode exposes the catastrophic consequences of outdated intelligence and overreliance on technological targeting in modern warfare, underscored by tragic human cost and deepening polarization both within the U.S. and across the region. The story of Minab—the destruction of a school and the lives lost there—serves as a cautionary tale of the hazards of war, propaganda, and systemic failures in safeguarding civilians.

For Further Reading:

• Ben Smith’s report on Joe Kent (linked in show notes)
• Rolling updates and analysis available via The Telegraph’s Middle East coverage

Hosts: Venetia Rainey, Arthur Scott Geddes
Reporting by: Roland Oliphant, Gareth Caulfield, Paul Newqui
Produced by: The Telegraph

Note: Timestamps correspond to the podcast’s content; advertisement and non-content interludes have been skipped.