Battle Lines: "America's Kurdish Betrayal: Has ISIS been Given a Second Chance?"

Podcast: Battle Lines (The Telegraph)
Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Roland Oliphant
Guests: Sophia Yan (Telegraph Senior Foreign Correspondent), Dr. Burcu Ocalik (Royal United Services Institute)

Main Theme

This episode analyzes the dramatic reversal of Kurdish fortunes in northeastern Syria, focusing on the fall of the autonomous Kurdish "statelet" (Rojava) to forces loyal to the new Syrian Transitional Government. The hosts and guests discuss American policy, the future of the Kurds, regional power shifts, the fate of ISIS prisoners, and whether the US has betrayed its Kurdish allies—potentially giving ISIS an unexpected opening.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Fall of Kurdish-Controlled Northeastern Syria

[03:21 - 04:38] Dr. Burcu Ocalik:

• Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have rapidly lost territory in Syria’s northeast.
• These areas had been under Kurdish control since 2012-2013, after the Syrian Army withdrew to battle Arab insurgents.
• The SDF, originally comprising mainly YPG and YPJ (affiliated with Turkey’s PKK), became key US partners against ISIS.
• The collapse is linked to the failed "March 10th agreement" (2025) between SDF and Damascus, which sought Kurdish integration into state structures.
• Both sides blame each other, but Damascus insists on centralization, supported by the US and Turkey.

Quote:

“The past few weeks have been a fundamental reversal of the good fortune that the Syrian Democratic Forces have enjoyed for quite some time.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [03:21]

2. The Significance of 'Rojava' and Kurdish Aspirations

[06:34 - 09:44]

• "Rojava" represents Kurdish aspirations for autonomy or independence in Syria, inspired by broader ideas of democratic confederalism spanning Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria.
• The SDF is rooted in the YPG/YPJ, both seen by Turkey and international partners as linked to “terrorist” PKK.
• Tensions exist between Kurdish groups in Syria and the Kurdish regional government in Iraq, reflecting different ideologies and strategies.

Quote:

“Rojava was the first experiment of the PKK and its affiliates... in territorial control in northern Syria.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [09:12]

3. On-the-Ground Reality and Kurdish Fears

[09:44 - 13:35] Sophia Yan:

• The Syrian government, under President Ahmed Al Shara, rapidly entered Kurdish territory, with violence followed by a fragile ceasefire to facilitate US-supervised transfer of ISIS prisoners to Iraq.
• Despite minor concessions (recognition of Kurdish language, citizenship, and holidays), deep distrust remains among Kurds toward both Damascus and the US.
• The new Syrian interim constitution enshrined Islam as the state religion and kept "Syrian Arab Republic" as the official name—signaling, to Kurds, exclusion rather than inclusion.
• The presence of massive camps of ISIS-linked prisoners (including many foreign nationals) now raises fresh security concerns due to instability.

Quote:

“There's a sense... that the Kurds in Syria will again be shafted.” — Sophia Yan [11:24]

4. Loss of Territory & The US Shift

[14:29 - 18:02] Dr. Burcu Ocalik & Sophia Yan:

• The US’s focus shifted following Assad’s fall (December 2025), with preference for state-to-state relations. The US backed Al Shara and welcomed his commitment to fighting ISIS.
• The SDF overestimated the depth of US support—Washington now has a state partner in Damascus, reducing the need for non-state proxies.
• Many Arab tribes allied with the SDF flipped allegiance to Damascus after Assad, weakening the SDF’s base and legitimacy.
• The US has orchestrated the transfer of thousands of ISIS prisoners to Iraq, but this relocation raises further risks.

Quote:

“The SDF, I think, overplayed their hand… they exaggerated the extent to which the United States would continue to back them regardless.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [15:24]

5. The Narrative of American Betrayal

[20:01 - 24:46] Dr. Burcu Ocalik:

• There is a clear and powerful sentiment of betrayal among the SDF and Kurdish communities after US support faded.
• The US’s objective was always narrowly defined: defeating ISIS, not guaranteeing Kurdish autonomy or rights.
• The future of ISIS is a legitimate worry—but Kurds’ rights and status require attention beyond the counterterrorism lens.
• The SDF’s diverse makeup (including now-defected Arab tribes) undermined its territorial hold and local legitimacy.

Quote:

“Of course [the Americans] have [betrayed the Kurds]. And that’s a powerful narrative and that will resonate for quite some time.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [20:11]

“We have to be thinking about the rights of the Kurdish peoples inside Syria beyond what happens to the SDF.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [21:32]

6. Risks Surrounding ISIS Detainees

[27:02 - 30:04]

• SDF had managed ISIS detainee camps as the US’s reliable ground partner.
• Now, Damascus controls these sites, but there are concerns about abuse and a surge in mutual accusations.
• The transfer of prisoners to Iraq raises legal, logistical, and humanitarian issues regarding fair trials and humane treatment.

Quote:

“This is a real spike in disinformation… [but] the SDF were very competent and able fighters and administrators that held control over the camps.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [27:43]

7. The Capacity and Challenges of the New Syrian Government

[30:04 - 33:54] Sophia Yan:

• Syria’s new government faces acute insecurity, logistical overstretch, and lingering mistrust—especially among Kurds.
• Rapid expansion of the security forces and patchy vetting has led to lapses and deadly incidents (e.g., December attack that killed American forces).
• Rebuilding a nation after so many years of war is a challenge beyond the experience of most governments. Unity remains fragile.

Quote:

“It's very difficult for anyone outside the country to understand the massive mountain that they have to climb as a nation.” — Sophia Yan [33:31]

8. Roles of Turkey, Israel, and Other Regional Powers

[33:54 - 38:58] Dr. Burcu Ocalik:

• Turkey played a decisive, indirect role. Their strategic interest is preventing a PKK-linked Kurdish entity in Syria, hence they supported the rollback—without direct military intervention.
• The US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have all worked to support and legitimize Al Shara’s government.
• Despite calls from some Kurdish voices for Israeli assistance, Israel did not intervene, focusing mainly on minority Druze.
• Such pleas for Israeli support deepened Arab mistrust toward Kurds within the SDF.

Quote:

“Turkey has been able to fulfill its objectives in northern Syria… without putting boots on the ground.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [36:04]

“Some Kurdish actors were openly calling for Israeli support, [which] fueled animosity and mistrust… across the Arab tribes within the SDF.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [38:41]

9. Strategic Regional Implications and What Comes Next

[38:58 - 42:47] Sophia Yan & Dr. Burcu Ocalik:

• Iraq’s role is pivotal—as a US logistical hub and recipient of ISIS detainees, but also a country balancing internal and regional pressures.
• If Syria's new experiment in inclusive governance fails, instability may return, undermining hopes for regional peace.
• Building a centralized Syrian state reflects a broader regional move away from non-state armed actors. What this means for pluralism and minority rights is unresolved.
• The future is uncertain, demanding inclusive political participation from all of Syria’s communities—including Kurds.

Quote:

“You have to remember… Syria only has Shara as their hope… they've got nothing else after the fall of the Assad regime.” — Sophia Yan [40:29]

“Are we nearing the end of armed non-state actors and proxy groups? … The direction of travel is towards supporting centralized state systems.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [41:33]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Of course [the Americans] have [betrayed the Kurds]. And that’s a powerful narrative and that will resonate for quite some time.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [20:11]
• “It's very difficult for anyone outside the country to understand the massive mountain that they have to climb as a nation.” — Sophia Yan [33:31]
• “Turkey has been able to fulfill its objectives in northern Syria… without putting boots on the ground.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [36:04]
• “You have to remember… Syria only has Shara as their hope… they've got nothing else after the fall of the Assad regime.” — Sophia Yan [40:29]
• “Are we nearing the end of armed non-state actors and proxy groups? … The direction of travel is towards supporting centralized state systems.” — Dr. Burcu Ocalik [41:33]

Key Timeline to Reference

| Timestamp | Section/Topic | |-----------|------------------------------------------------| | 03:21 | Kurdish territorial losses; March 10th failure | | 06:34 | Meaning of "Rojava" and Kurdish history | | 09:44 | On-the-ground Kurdish fears, new constitution | | 14:29 | Arab tribes betraying SDF; US policy shift | | 20:11 | Kurdish sense of betrayal by the US | | 27:43 | Why SDF ran ISIS detainee camps | | 30:20 | Challenges facing Syria’s new government | | 34:27 | Turkey's indirect intervention; Israel's stance | | 38:58 | Regional projection, Iraq and future outlook | | 41:33 | Prospects for non-state actors; what’s next |

Conclusion

This episode uncovers the intricate geopolitics behind the collapse of Kurdish autonomy in Syria, the shifting US alliances, the challenge of ISIS prisoners, and the regional powers at play. While the narrative of Kurdish betrayal is, as Dr. Ocalik notes, both real and resonant, the future is marked by uncertainty—demanding both inclusive politics in Syria and vigilance from the international community regarding the fate of tens of thousands of prisoners and the possibility of an ISIS resurgence. The episode starkly underscores how the region’s key actors—Turkey, Israel, Iraq, and the US—each have a hand in shaping what comes next for Kurds, Syrians, and the broader Middle East.