Iran: The Latest – Can Trump’s Blockade Break Iran’s Grip on Strait of Hormuz?

The Telegraph | April 13, 2026

Hosts: Roland Oliphant & Venetia Rainey
Guest: Adrian Blomfield (Senior Foreign Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode examines the dramatic escalation in the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, focusing on President Trump’s announcement of a total blockade of Iranian exports and imports through the vital Strait of Hormuz. The hosts explore whether Trump’s strategy can succeed, review the historical precedents for such blockades, and analyze the fallout from the first direct US-Iran peace talks since 1979, which failed after a 21-hour session. The episode also covers the ongoing violence in Israel and Lebanon, regional implications, and the increasingly tense role of international diplomacy.

Key Discussion Points

1. Conflict Landscape: Israel, Lebanon and the Ongoing War

• Escalation Despite Ceasefires
  • Despite a recent ceasefire, fighting continues on the Israel-Lebanon border: Hezbollah is launching rocket attacks on northern Israel, while Israel expands ground operations in southern Lebanon.
  • Death toll in Lebanon exceeds 2,000, including about 400 Hezbollah fighters since March 2. Twelve Israeli soldiers have been killed in southern Lebanon. (02:26)
• Speeches and Debates in Israel
  • Hezbollah’s Leader: Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech vowing to “fight on.”
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu: In a televised address, Netanyahu claims “historic achievements” against Iran and its proxies, asserting, “We crushed the nuclear program, we crushed the missiles and we crushed the regime.” (03:52, Venetia paraphrasing Netanyahu)
  • Widespread internal debate in Israel about the ceasefire's merits and whether war aims have been achieved.
• Historic Peace Negotiations Initiated
  • For the first time, Israel and Lebanon prepare for direct peace talks, with ambassadors communicating—a rare event given no formal diplomatic relations exist.

2. International and Religious Reaction: The Vatican-Weighs In

• Papal Critique of Conflict
  • Pope Leo XIV (mistakenly referred to as “Louis XIV”) delivers a pointed message condemning war, power displays, and “idolatry of self and money.”

    “Enough of the idolatry of self and money, enough of the display of power, enough of war. True strength is shown in serving life.” (05:28, Venetia quoting the Pope’s statement)

  • Trump responds combatively, attacking the Pope’s positions on nuclear weapons and US foreign policy:

    “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela. And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected in a landslide to do. If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican.” (05:53, Venetia paraphrasing Trump’s online statement)

  • Trump posts an AI image of himself depicted as Jesus blessing an elderly man, underscoring his theatrical style.
  • Pope Leo responds:

    “I’m not a politician. I’ve got no intention to debate with Trump. The message is the same: to promote peace.” (06:33, Venetia reporting on Vatican reply)

3. Blockades: History, Strategy, and Feasibility

• Historical Look at Naval Blockades
  • Previous Examples:
    • Union blockade of the Confederacy (American Civil War)
    • Royal Navy blockades of Germany (WWI and WWII)—noting the WWI blockade’s immense impact but also the time (4 years) and suffering required for success.
    • Iran Angle: In 1952, the Royal Navy tried to block Iranian oil exports after the Mossadegh government nationalized British oil facilities, but blockade alone failed to induce policy change, leading to the 1953 coup.
  • Effectiveness:

    “Blockades can be effective, but they’re often not watertight and…can take years or have to be in conjunction with many other measures to have the impact that is sought.” (07:36, Roland)

• Trump’s Blockade: Can It Work?
  • Trump’s new order: total US blockade of Iranian imports/exports, especially oil, via the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Other options “on the table,” including heavy bombing—Trump claims:

    “I could take out Iran in one day. I could take down in one, in one hour... I’d rather not do that. But I do believe they’re going to come to the table on this because nobody can be so stupid as to say that we want to have nuclear weapons. And they have no cards. They have no cards whatsoever.” (10:09, Trump on Fox News soundbite)

4. Why the Peace Talks Failed

• First Direct Talks in Decades
  • First US-Iran face-to-face diplomacy since 1979 took place in Islamabad. Each side sent “serious experts and diplomats,” signaling intent to negotiate realistically. (13:26-14:30, Adrian Blomfield)
  • US Delegation led by JD Vance (selected for multiple reasons: his skepticism, his trustworthiness, and his ability for “owning” outcomes for the Trump administration).

    “If things go wrong, I blame JD Vance. If things go right, I take the credit.” (14:11, Trump joking as reported by Adrian)

  • 21-hour negotiations, optimism briefly rising. But suddenly, after dawn, JD Vance ends talks, stating no agreement was reached:

    “We have not reached an agreement…That’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America. We’ve made very clear what our red lines are…They have chosen not to accept our terms.” (16:07, JD Vance clip)

  • Iran’s take (FM Abbas al-Raghji):

    “Intensive talks…in good faith…But when just inches away…we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.” (16:41, Venetia quoting Iranian post on X)

• Points of Contention:
  • Sticking points were:
    1. Nuclear Enrichment
    2. Strait of Hormuz Control
    3. Release of Frozen Assets—specifically $6 billion in oil revenues, supposed to be released as part of the 2023 prisoner swap but now denied by the US.
  • Lebanon, surprisingly, was not central to the failed talks—may have been a performative issue for leverage. (17:10-18:55, Adrian)

5. Possible Next Steps & Scenarios

• Three Outcomes for Negotiations:

  1. Flourishing: Talks are a negotiation tactic; may resume if Iran offers more.
  2. Floundering: Both sides stuck, but may keep extending ceasefire to avoid war.
  3. Foundering: Trump’s blockade is first in a new escalation; war could return soon.

  “Which of those three outcomes is clear is too soon to tell.” (19:55, Adrian)

• Trump’s 'Deadlines' Rarely Firm:

  • Trump has a record of shifting or extending deadlines (e.g., for striking infrastructure), so this blockading deadline could be more political leverage than firm ultimatum.

    “What a deadline is for Mr. Trump is not what a deadline is for me as a newspaper journalist… I don’t necessarily think I would hold too much credence in that.” (22:04, Adrian)

6. Blockade in Practice: Legal, Diplomatic, and Economic Factors

• US Navy Moves

  • Two US warships (USS Frankie Peterson and USS Michael Murphy) sailed through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began, with responders switched on as a clear signal to Iran. (29:25, Venetia)
  • CENTCOM plans to ramp up efforts to clear mines and establish the strait’s international status; possibility of allied support with British mine-sweeping capabilities.
  • Significance: Until now, US maritime assets stayed far from the strait to avoid high-profile losses.

• Legal and Practical Complications

  • During the war, US assets were occupied with direct conflict to impose a blockade.
  • International maritime law complications: Iran argues “innocent passage” per UNCLOS (which Iran hasn’t signed); US risks similar legality issues with a blockade. (28:10, Adrian)
  • Blockade efficacy questions: Could Trump order the Navy to intercept all vessels, even Chinese-flagged ships?

    “If it’s a Chinese flagged vessel, is the US Navy really going to risk a confrontation with that? That remains to be seen.” (24:26, Adrian)

• Effect on Iran and the World

  • Severe economic fallout looms for Iran: With oil exports accounting for at least 15% of GDP, a maintained blockade could be devastating for jobs and the wider economy.
  • Oil prices have surged over $100 per barrel.

    “The Iranian economy is in dire straits… There is no sign at the moment that the Iranian regime is going to back down.” (24:26, Adrian)

  • Economic pressure on regimes rarely leads to quick capitulation; often populations suffer most.

7. International Response and Multilateral Diplomacy

• French and British Diplomacy
  • Macron announces a conference (with Britain) to plan a “peaceful multinational mission” to restore freedom of navigation in the strait.
• European/NATO Partners Reluctant to Join Blockade
  • Allies may assist with mine-removal, but there’s little appetite in Europe for direct participation in a US-led blockade.

    “There’s enormous pressure on NATO… But there are those who say that behind the scenes things may still be in the works and this negotiating tract is not yet over yet.” (32:15, Adrian)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Trump’s Blockade Plan:

  “Trump is trying to break that particular piece of the puzzle with his own blockade. And we’re going to see where that goes because it’s now a game of chicken.” (01:04, Adrian Blomfield)

• On US-Iran Talks:

  “It was a very tight ship that JD Vance ran… If things go wrong, I blame JD Vance. If things go right, I take the credit.” (14:11, Adrian quoting Trump’s jest)

• On Failure of Peace Talks:

  “We have been at it now for 21 hours and we’ve had a number of substantive discussions…The bad news is we have not reached an agreement…We’ve made clear what our red lines are.” (16:07, JD Vance clip)

• On Legal and Diplomatic Risks of Blockade:

  “If the US imposes its own blockade, it potentially faces accusations that it itself is in breach of international law. And it certainly undermines the argument that Donald Trump has been trying to make.” (28:10, Adrian)

• On Iranian Leverage:

  “It has replaced its weapon of, or its desire for a weapon of mass destruction with a weapon of mass disruption, as the joke goes.” (22:04, Adrian)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:04] – Trump’s blockade announcement; “game of chicken” begins
• [02:26] – Overview of fighting in Israel-Lebanon, regional death tolls
• [05:28] – Vatican’s intervention and fallout with Trump
• [07:36] – Historical blockades and their relevance
• [10:09] – Trump’s Fox News threat: "I could take out Iran in one day..."
• [13:26] – Lead into peace talks recap and analysis
• [16:07] – JD Vance statement ending talks
• [17:10] – Why talks failed: nuclear, Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets
• [19:55] – Possible scenarios for emerging from deadlock
• [22:04] – On Trump deadlines and leverage
• [24:26] – The practicalities, risks, and economics of the blockade
• [29:25] – US warships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz; mine-clearing
• [32:15] – European/NATO involvement and prospects
• [34:19] – Adrian’s conclusion, split-screen moment of talks/casual Trump diplomacy

Conclusion

This episode thoroughly dissects President Trump’s escalation in the US-Iran conflict through a high-stakes blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While the solution seems militarily feasible, the hosts and guest expert probe its strategic risks, historical context, legal complexities, and likely fallout for Iran's population. The peace process remains stalled after unsuccessful face-to-face talks, and as diplomatic efforts hang in the balance, the world watches to see who will “blink” in this critical standoff. Trump’s unpredictability, the suffering in Iran, and a region on the edge of broader war all set the scene for a pivotal, tense, and uncertain next chapter.