Podcast Summary:

Iran: The Latest
Episode: ‘Huge void’ in Iran regime after security chief 'assassinated'
Date: March 17, 2026
Host: Roland Oliphant (The Telegraph)
Guests: Akhtar McCoy (Telegraph Foreign Correspondent), Ali Safavi (National Council of Resistance of Iran, MEK)

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode provides a deep-dive into reports of the assassination of Ali Larijani, head of the Iranian National Security Council, in the context of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Amid unconfirmed reports and a blackout of official Iranian statements, host Roland Oliphant explores the significance of this event with expert newsroom analysis and an in-depth interview with Ali Safavi of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), focusing on potential regime change, the balance of power within Iran, and the role of Iranian opposition movements.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Status and Significance of Ali Larijani’s Reported Death

• Unconfirmed Reports: Israel claims responsibility for killing Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani in a strike on Tehran; Iranian state media is silent ([02:32]).
• Significance:
  • Larijani described as the “number two in the regime” and crucial in holding the Islamic Republic together post-Khamenei’s death.
  • His role as Supreme National Security Council Secretary, appointed directly by the Supreme Leader, is critical for wartime decisions ([03:14]).
  • His ability to bridge hardliners and moderates made him central to regime stability ([04:42]).

Quote:
“If it's true, and if he's dead, that's a very big and significant blow to the Islamic Republic.”
— Akhtar McCoy ([02:32])

2. Current Situation Inside Iran

• Atmosphere: Nightfall in Tehran, Chaharshanbe Suri festival; regime threatens anyone celebrating with fireworks, framing them as enemies ([05:27]).
• Conflict & Censorship: Ongoing missile launches, tighter internet blockades, and limitations on even state television ([06:11]).

3. Assessment of Regime Change Prospects

• Who Replaces the Regime?
  • Civil and political opposition groups discussed, especially the controversial MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) and exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi ([08:31]).
• Divided Opposition:
  • MEK frequently labeled a “terrorist cult” by both regime supporters and many anti-regime Iranians due to its history, particularly its alignment with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War ([08:31]).

4. Exclusive Interview with Ali Safavi (NCRI/MEK)

a. Larijani’s Death and Regime Stability

• Believes Larijani’s absence creates a “huge void” in leadership, compounding the crisis post-Khamenei’s death ([10:29], [11:22]).
• Asserts that neither Khamenei’s son nor other regime elements carry equivalent authority.

b. The Path to Regime Change

• Direct opposition to negotiations with current regime, labeling engagement as a “fool’s errand” based on 47 years of failed attempts ([13:54]).
• Advocates for “bottom-up, homegrown, indigenous” regime change by Iranian people and organized opposition ([16:36]).

Quote:
“This idea that somehow you can cajole through dialogue this regime to behave is fool's errand.”
— Ali Safavi ([13:54])

c. MEK’s Role and Capabilities Inside Iran

• Claims a substantial network ("organized, armed MEK network") operating within Iran, citing 2,000 resistance units “disappeared” during January 2026 uprising ([18:26]).
• Positions MEK as disciplined, experienced, and led by women—rejects cult allegations ([19:39]).

Quote:
“With a movement that is led by women from top to bottom, that's an anathema to being a cult.”
— Ali Safavi ([19:39])

d. Controversy over MEK’s Legacy and Popularity

• Addresses accusations of treason for siding with Saddam:
  • Condemns “distorted narrative”; claims MEK only intervened well after Iraq’s invasion, targeting Revolutionary Guards, and sought peace ([22:13], [25:36]).
  • Blames regime propaganda for negative perceptions among Iranians ([25:36]).
• Funding: Asserts the MEK is funded by “the people of Iran” and diaspora, not foreign governments ([27:14]).

e. Collaboration with Foreign Intelligence

• Firmly denies MEK collaboration with Israel, Mossad, or the US in assassinations or current military operations ([27:56], [28:17]).
• Stresses 60-year record of independence ([28:20]).

f. Vision for a Post-Regime Iran

• Outlines plan for a transitional provisional government lasting six months, followed by free elections ([29:26]).
• Denies seeking power for its own sake; emphasizes democracy, pluralism, and legitimacy through elections ([31:01]).

g. Comparison with Reza Pahlavi and the Pahlavi Monarchy

• Dismisses Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as representing “authoritarianism and dictatorship,” claims he lacks legitimacy ([34:53]).
• Points to opposition’s fragmentation as a reflection of pluralism, not weakness ([36:55], [37:38]).
• Defends MEK’s sacrifices as evidence of commitment, challenges Pahlavi supporters on their lack of active fighters in Iran ([37:38]).

Quote:
“Where are Reza Pahlavi's fighters in Iran? Have you seen any? I haven't seen any.”
— Ali Safavi ([37:38])

h. Necessity and Nature of Uprising

• Calls for readiness to “sacrifice more” for freedom ([40:39]).
• Accepts the inevitability of violent uprising if peaceful revolution is made impossible ([41:07]), but denies aiming for civil war ([41:26]).
• Rejects war as a solution; prefers political support for the opposition rather than military intervention ([42:14]).

Quote:
“War has never been... [the solution] in Iraq, it wasn't in Libya, and it's not going to be in Iran either.”
— Ali Safavi ([42:14])

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “He was close to both hardliners and reformists and moderates. So it would be hard to say… who betrayed him.” — Akhtar McCoy ([04:42])
• “Any hope or expectation that you can engage in some meaningful dialogue with this regime is an illusion.” — Ali Safavi ([13:54])
• “There have been four major uprisings in Iran… not spontaneous as much as the West chooses to not report it.” — Ali Safavi ([16:36])
• “The MEK never, ever had any role whatsoever in the killing of the Iranian scientist.” — Ali Safavi ([27:56])
• “Nobody will give you freedom in a silver platter. No one. No one.” — Ali Safavi ([40:43])
• “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.” — Ali Safavi, quoting JFK ([41:07])

Important Timestamps

• [02:01] – Host introduces breaking news on Larijani’s reported death
• [02:32–06:33] – Akhtar McCoy’s analysis of the regime and situation inside Iran
• [08:31] – Start of analysis on Iran’s opposition movements and introduction to Ali Safavi
• [10:29]–[43:11] – In-depth interview with Ali Safavi, covering:
  • Larijani’s significance ([10:29–12:48])
  • Regime change prospects & MEK’s position ([13:54–18:26])
  • Legitimacy, allegations, and controversies ([18:42–28:20])
  • Vision for post-regime Iran ([29:26–33:50])
  • Division versus unity in the opposition ([36:55–38:50])
  • The inevitability of struggle and sacrifice ([39:49–42:09])
  • Stance on ongoing war ([42:09–43:11])

Tone and Style

• The discussion remains urgent, analytical, and sometimes combative—especially when the MEK’s controversial history and relationship with other opposition factions are addressed.
• Safavi is unwavering in his assertions, insists on the MEK's legitimacy, and underscores the need for sacrifice in the struggle for Iran's future.

Conclusion

This episode offers a rigorous look at leadership crises in the Iranian regime following the possible death of a powerful insider, and drills deep into the battle for legitimacy between opposition groups—particularly between the MEK and the Pahlavi monarchy. It also grapples openly with the realities and narratives surrounding the MEK’s legacy, the likely scenarios for regime change (whether peaceful or violent), and the formidable challenges faced by all sides. Ultimately, the episode underscores how divided and complex the fight for Iran’s future has become amidst war, repression, and the hope for freedom.