Arthur Scott Geddes (2:28)

The other big story at the time of recording is that three cargo ships have been struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. It's not clear yet whether they were hit by drones, missiles, or even debris, but Iran has repeatedly threatened to strike any vessel passing through the Strait, and this has effectively shut the vital shipping lane. Around 14 vessels are now reported to have been hit since the war began. And this is playing havoc with the global economy, disrupting oil and gas supplies as well as shipments of fertiliser, sulphur and other critical resources. Also today, several countries have begun releasing oil from strategic reserves in an effort to keep prices down. And we'll be coming back to that issue in the days to come.

Venetia Rainey (3:02)

But let's start in Iran. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of War or Defence, said yesterday that American armed forces were going to conduct the most intense raid on Iran since the war began on February 28.

Adam Grant (3:15)

Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever.

Venetia Rainey (3:30)

Piercing through the fog of war is always difficult. This war has been pretty notable for the gung ho American communication around the operation. We've seen bombastic daily press conferences from Hegseth and others and video game style clips of strikes being shared on social media. Meanwhile, in Iran, no one can report independently on the ground and the Internet blackout makes it really difficult to speak to people there. That's why you're hearing a lot from diaspora Iranians. They can talk freely without fear of the state persecuting them mostly anyway. And they also speak regularly to Iranians inside the country. Saha Zand is one of those people. She's an Iranian British investigative journalist who left Iran 25 years ago as a teenager, but keeps in regular touch with people inside the country. She now lives in London. Saha, welcome to Iran. The latest you heard me talking about what Hegseth had been saying yesterday there about the most intense day of bombing yet. What have you been hearing and seeing from inside Iran in the past 24 hours?

Sahar Zand (4:26)

I think it's important to point out before I answer your question, that this war is extraordinarily different from many others we've seen around the world. I as a journalist have covered many. I'm not saying this because I, I was born in Iran. I'm saying this because every country that's ever hit often is sad. The people in that country are devastated. The people in that country beg for the enemy to start bombing them. In Iran, at least with the majority of people, it's the other way around. People are celebrating this. Iranian people do not feel that this attack is against them. They believe that this attack is against their common enemy. And by common enemy, I mean the regime that has been killing them in their thousands that have been oppressing them for years that have been imprisoning them, that have been stealing their money and giving it to terrorists in the region. So Iranians feel like these hits are against the regime, buildings are against the regime assets. So when I hear that in any other circumstance as an Iranian, I would have been nervous. But we've seen how precise these attacks have been. And like many other Iranians, as devastating as a war is, I'm not as worried as I should be. It might also be worth me pointing out I have been talking about Iran quite a lot. My specialty is foreign affairs. As a journalist, we have to be unbiased. We have to look at facts. You have to show both sides. But at times it's hard to talk. As a journalist and not an Iranian, and also someone who's been extensively covering Iran for the past five years, since the Mahsa Amini protest began, and having seen the atrocities committed by this regime, as a human, I absolutely have a position.

Arthur Scott Geddes (6:27)

What's your sense from the people and the sources you've been speaking to? What's your sense of how strong the regime is at the moment?

Sahar Zand (6:33)

Well, the sources I've been speaking to are the people underground and they don't know. But what they're hoping for is what we assume, which is that the regime is at its weakest. The regime has never been hit this hard by a foreign enemy. And let's remember that in June last year there was a 12 day war which massively weakened Iran and Iran's military capabilities. In the meantime, the sanctions have massively crippled Iran's economy. And nationwide protests by people across Iran who want this regime gone have also weakened them morally. That's why they have been hitting back at people with an iron fist.

Venetia Rainey (7:19)

How is the Iranian state portraying all of this? As you say, they're being really heavily hit. And America is full of boasts and Israel about how they're decimating the missile production capabilities, the Iranian navy, security apparatus. How is the Iranian state media and officials, how are they spinning this whole war?

Sahar Zand (7:37)

The Iranian media has been showing this war as they have shown everything else. They have always wrapped themselves around the Iranian flag. They have always tried to turn everything in their own favor. It's no secret that media press in Iran is not fair and free. It's massively censored. And everything you see on the tv, you hear on the radio, you see on their social media is always a regime propaganda. It's always exaggerating what they want the world to see, which is, oh, we're being hit, we're representing the majority of the Iranian people, we're not killing people in their thousands. And the ones that we do kill and execute, the ones that we cannot deny, oh, they are our enemies. They are American spies. They are Israeli spies. They are continuously showing that this war, they are exaggerating the extent of the attacks on civilians. Of course civilians have been killed. It's a war. It's devastating. It breaks my heart. I still don't know if my family are safe. And I'm saying it from that perspective, but it's a war. People get killed. And Iranians inside of Iran who are bearing the cost of this war on their lives, on their finances, on their everything, they are celebrating it. So who are we, the Iranian diaspora? Journalists? People outside politicians? Who are we to buy into the narrative of the regime? If the Iranian people are celebrating missiles dropping on their heads, then that tells you everything.

Arthur Scott Geddes (9:17)

One of the main reasons, I suppose, that we're not hearing more from Iranians inside Iran is because of this Internet blackout. But there's also a crackdown underway by the regime. In recent days, Iran's arrested dozens of people, including a foreign national, for spying. How scared are people to speak out about what's really happening?

Sahar Zand (9:33)

Iranians are terrified, and they have been for a long time. Iranians. Let me give you a little context. I left Iran. I escaped Iran with my mom after they arrested my dad when I was 12 years old. Back then, my mom and dad had to be careful what they talk about at home. And they weren't particularly political. If they spoke about anything like a book, they've read that. There are many books that are illegal in Iran. They had to be careful not to say certain things in front of me at the very unlikely scenario that I might mention it in school and someone might say to the teachers, and then they could get arrested. It's as easy as that. It's like the most terrifying version of Big Brother you can imagine, right? That's been the case in Iran for a long time. Anyone who ever opposed the regime, like, forget oppose the regime, dare to say anything that's not favorable, ended up in prisons, ended up tortured. And trials in Iran are unfair and free. There were so many people who were prosecuted in all these random trials, had to come on TV and made to admit to a crime they haven't committed. And they were used as examples to stop people from committing the same acts, to say anything or take a step in the wrong directions. And at times, it was just random. It was just to set an example. Right. I remember I saw people hung on the streets of Iran. Like, these are things that you grow up with, right? So this fear is instilled in you from a young age. But Iranians are so fed up, things are so bad, that they started speaking out fair. Slowly, they started going out, they started protesting. And this began in 2009. These protests were met with a heavy crackdown. The crackdown made people even more angry. This started this movement of people knowing that they could speak out. It emboldened them that in 2019, there was another set of protests, that in 2022, when Mahsa Amini died, when she was killed for not wearing her hijab properly, that's when people were. They went out. They didn't go out because a girl was killed for not wearing her hijab properly. They weren't surprised. They were waiting for a spark. It was the straw that brought camels back. It was one thing that united them. They were looking for an opportunity. And that those protests were met by a terrible crackdown. Over 500 people were killed, many of them children. That made people even more angry. But what that did is that it showed a crack in this regime. This regime, to us, for many years, to many Iranians, seemed impenetrable. The word of Khamenei was thought to be the word of God. But the way they reacted, the way they killed the protesters and the way the regime seemed shaken, it showed people that perhaps they're not as invincible as people once thought. And then, since then, they've been reorganizing. They've been keeping the protests alive, like fire under the ashes. And as soon as the opportunity arose again at the end of last year, they came out and they protested. And of course, within two days, we know that the regime killed some. We still don't know the numbers, but the estimates say around 50,000 people.

Venetia Rainey (12:55)

I've heard more like 30,000, but, yeah, still huge numbers.

Sahar Zand (12:58)

The regime said 30,000. And the reason they said 30,000 was for two reasons. One, to instill fear in people. Don't come out, we'll kill you. Two, in the international stage, to say that it was our people that were killed, which is, by the way, they're doing, again, they're saying X number of people have been killed in Iran. We know that the majority of people killed are officials, are regime officials. But Iran is saying X number of people.

Venetia Rainey (13:21)

Do we know that? Yeah, we know because I see reports from the Iranian Red Crescent, more than a thousand civilians killed. We know, of course, that in that strike on the primary school In Minab, around 170 people killed, more than 100 of whom were children. I mean, these aren't. These aren't Iranian officials, are they?

Sahar Zand (13:34)

No, but many of them are. As I said earlier, it's a war. People would get killed. And I am devastated. I mourn their death every day. But then I also remember the funerals of people who lost their loved ones in the protest that were dancing at the funeral of their dead child, of their dead parent. They were dancing, they were singing because they wanted to show that they're continuing that protest, because they wanted to show that they are not going to back down, even if they kill them. Right.

Venetia Rainey (14:04)

I'm always conscious when we're reporting on countries to try not to generalize, and I think, particularly with the Iran war, Iran is a country of 90 million people, hugely varied, lots of different ethnic groups. And I wonder if sometimes we fall into the trap of generalizing about how Iranians feel about the regime. Clearly, you've spoken to lots of people on the ground who feel very strongly against the regime and are celebrating this war. But in a country of 90 million, even if 10% felt completely the opposite and supported the regime and would like to go back to stability and don't want Trump's war, that's still 9 million people. It's still a lot of people. I'm wondering if you think there's ever a disconnect, I guess, with the more patchwork views of Iranians on the ground. And we know a lot of people do support the regime. We saw sort of thousands out for a funeral, and maybe they're paid, maybe they're not. Who knows? But I'm sure there are people who genuinely do believe in the regime. And the more homogenous, it seems, views of diaspora Iranians who do seem to think that this war is generally a good thing, they mourn the deaths, as you say, but that they think this is the only opportunity to get rid of the regime. I'm wondering if you think there's a disconnect there at all.

Sahar Zand (15:10)

There, 100% is a disconnect. And it's very difficult to talk about this. But let me tell you what Iranians are telling me, please. They are like, why don't you throw a referendum? Why don't you allow us, you know, that a lot of us have been dissatisfied for so long. Let us have a referendum. Let us have a vote. Of course they don't allow that. Let us have free press so that our voice can be represented in the media. They don't allow that. Let foreign Journalists come in and report freely. They don't allow that. What they do allow, right now, CNN is in the country. Great channel. I always watch their content. Great journalism. But so many Iranians are so angry. They're like, why are foreign journalists coming in if they're only going to give a voice, give a platform to the regime's propaganda? If we don't know, and we can't know because the Islamic Republic is hiding it, why are they hiding it? Why is there an Internet blackout every time there is a protest, why is there an Internet blackout? So to go back to your questions, Iran is a country of 90 million. How can we know that the majority want this regime gone? How do we know that the majority, or a big number, a major number, are representing the people I'm speaking to? The answer is one, we don't know the Islamic Republic is hiding it. Two, look at the number of people that came out and protested for how long, given that they knew they will be killed, given that they knew they would be paying a huge price, not just on their own lives, but on the lives of their families. And if that number, that huge number, if out of, I don't know, 10 people that felt that way, one of them came out. Just do the math yourself. And unfortunately, we have to keep doing the math ourself because Iran is hiding so much, and that only tells us they have so much to hide.

Venetia Rainey (17:10)

You have been speaking to Iranians on the ground, as you mentioned, and I know you've brought along some statements from people, quotes from people that you wanted to share with us. Do you want to read them out?

Sahar Zand (17:17)

Yes, absolutely. So it's important to say that because of the Internet blackout, the information we're getting out of Iran is very limited. You mentioned it yourself. We are only getting sporadic videos coming out, people filming it from their rooftops or whatever. And the only way we can try and get in touch with the people inside is through landlines, most of them disconnected. And I have been keeping in touch with a wide range of people. I've tried to gather a bunch of voices here for you from different cities, from different age groups, and I'll read a few of them out to you. This was from a mother who lost her child from the north of Iran. She said, this is not a war. The real war was during the two days in January when they killed more than 50,000 one of us. That was our war. Somebody else said there is now a sea of blood between us and them. The only way to get through it is to go all the way, that really gave me the chills, and that represents something that I've heard from a lot of people. People say that a bruised regime, a regime whose ego has been hit, the supreme Leader who called for war with Israel and America since four decades ago, was killed in the first day of the attack, has really hurt their reputation and their ego. They are bruised. And as we've seen, every time there has been a similar loss, similar attack or injury to the Iranian regime, if you want to call it. We've seen how they react. They kill people. They imprison people. Arbitrary arrests, speedy trials, executions, further crackdown on their own people. Another line is this one. This one also hit hard. Let them hit our infrastructures with missiles. Let them hit our roads and our houses. We'll make buildings again. We can reconstruct our infrastructures. It's our children who the regime killed that we can never get back. We have nothing left to lose but the chains around our wrists. This was from a teenager. Many people are worried about prisoners. We don't know. We haven't heard from them in the best of circumstances. They are mistreated, they're raped, they're tortured. Anything could happen to them. And Iran's prisons are filled with some of our brightest minds, with our activists, with our academics, with our lawyers, with our doctors. And so many people are worried about them.

Venetia Rainey (20:11)

I can see how emotional this is making you.

Sahar Zand (20:14)

That's why earlier I said, I'm not talking to you here just as a journalist, but I'm talking to you as an Iranian and a human being who has witnessed what this regime has done to its own people. A lot of people at the moment are talking about international law. Is Trump breaking international law? Yeah, he probably is, but I'm sorry. The same people who are talking about international law, where were they when Iran broke the international law by killing at least 30,000 of its own people in two days? Iranians are so frustrated because they feel like. They feel like there's a double standard, that their lives, their rights, matter less than others. I was talking to this young woman who has taken part in a lot of protests. She's a young student in her early 20s. She said, Look, I against Trump. She named the Epstein files. She named his treatment of women. Iran has a very young generation, a generation that was brought up with social media. Iranians are aware they're not different to you and I. They're not them. They're also like us. They want the same things. This young girl was like, she's really cool. She has a nose Piercing. She has blue hair. She's so cool. She was like, look, I've always hated Trump. Look at the way he talks about women. Look at, he's a racist. He's this. She was saying it right? A girl in Iran, she said, but I am supporting him right now. When he attacked Iran, she was one of the many people who were chanting Uncle Trump as in a word of endearment. On social media, we could see a few young women dancing to Trump's favorite song, ymca, doing his little dance. But a lot of them have been attacked because they're like, we agree that Gaza should have never happened. We agree that Trump and Israel's intentions are never to save Iranian people. Their priorities are never human rights in Iran. But whatever their intentions are, they're helping us right now. So stop attacking us. You know, those of you who are valuing the lives of people in some other war torn countries, another quote says, this is not a war for us, this is a rescue mission. I've also heard a lot about Reza Pahlavi, the former Crown prince who is now based in the us he is a bit of a controversial figure. Why? Because his father was ousted in a massive revolution in 1979 and he himself has been living in the US not so much in the public eye, he was an exiled prince. In recent years, he has supported Israel and Trump, so he hasn't made any friends by those things. That's what makes him quite a controversial figure. But one thing I saw change from all of these years that have been covering Iran. Even those that are not monarchists, even those who weren't supporting him are now supporting him. And the majority of people have accepted that, at least temporarily, he could be a good option. And Reza Pahlavi himself has said that he has a plan. We know that he had meeting with some of the US officials before they attacked Iran. He has claimed that he wants to come to Iran and form an interim government until elections are held. Iranians are hopeful that he does have a plan. And one thing I should mention is that Iranians have given up on looking for the best case scenario. They are stuck in a cocktail of bad choices. And right now, Reza Pahlavi, Trump's attack seems to be the best they can at least hold on to.

Arthur Scott Geddes (24:08)

One of the most extraordinary things I think about this conflict is the way that it has begun without a very clear plan for what should follow this regime change. You know, it's not at all clear what the US or the Israelis have in mind for what should happen to Iran. What Would you like to see happen next? What's your kind of vision of a happier and more prosperous Iran after this conflict?

Sahar Zand (24:30)

What I want is irrelevant. I'm a citizen of this country. I enjoy press freedom. I enjoy wearing what I want. I enjoy basic freedoms. I know that I can sit here and share my opinion with you without going to prison. Everything I've done since I woke up this morning would have landed me in prison in Iran. Everything. From walking outside without my headscarf, from listening to the music I wanted to outside, from talking to you right now, all of this would have landed me in prison. From following the certain accounts I follow on my social media. So it's not my place to say what I want for Iran. But they deserve the same rights, the same very basic freedoms that we do. They want a secular, democratic country. Iran is an oil rich country. It has so many resources. They want to be able to enjoy those resources they want. Look at the soccer players in Australia. They represent some of our brightest young. Why would they stand there, not chant the national anthem, knowing this could get them killed, Knowing this could put their families in jails back in Iran? I don't think people understand, unless you've lived in Iran, I don't think you understand how scary it is, how brutal the crackdown against any dissenters. What they did was huge. They're not just going to get a slap on their wrist. They could get killed. And they did that. And why would they do that if things weren't so bad and a national football team represents a country and they took a stand and we should ask ourselves why?

Arthur Scott Geddes (26:14)

That was Sahar Zand, an Iranian British investigative journalist. Coming up next, we'll hear from Paul Newquay, the Telegraph's global health security editor, about the attacks on Lebanon.

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Venetia Rainey (28:16)

You're listening to Iran, the latest. Now there is another major theater in this war and that's Lebanon. Within days of Trump and Netanyahu attacking Iran, the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah had fired missiles at Israel. The terror group is also believed to be behind a drone that was fired at Britain's RAF base in Akateri in Cyprus, which damaged the Runway there. The response from Israel was instant. First an aerial bombing campaign and now boots on the ground. If this feels familiar, that's because Israel did the same thing during its year long war with Hezbollah from 2023 to 2024. Now that round of conflict was prompted by the terror group firing missiles at Israel in support of Hamas's October 7th attack. But ever since the truce for that round in November 2024, Israel has continued to conduct near daily strikes on alleged Hezbollah targets. Now full blown war has erupted again and Israel is conducting waves of airstrikes across the country, including Beirut and sending additional forces into a self declared buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Now, over the course of 12 days, this war has already killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands. To discuss everything, we're joined by our global health security editor, Paul Newki, who's in Beirut right now. Paul, welcome to Iran. The latest we've had more reports of heavy bombing overnight, including in central Beirut. Just tell us what have you been seeing and hearing over the last few days?

Paul Newki (29:41)

There are jets flying overhead pretty constantly. There are drones in the sky as well. The Israelis have been mainly hitting the southern suburbs of the city, which is Hezbollah's traditional stronghold. We've seen some of the damage there. The area is deadly quiet, most People have evacuated and there's evidence on the streets there of buildings coming down in their entirety. It's a hugely densely packed area. So you know, the streets are narrow, the buildings are high rise and higgledy piggledy. So you can imagine the IDF is picking off particular targets where it finds them there. And the damage is very evident, strewn all over the road, broken buildings, et cetera, et cetera. This morning at about 5am they hit a big tower block in the western part of the city, much more central outside of the traditional Hezbollah stronghold. It's the second building they've hit like that in the last few days. They hit a hotel a few days before that, and that is seen by locals anyway as an escalation. So that's what's happening in Beirut. And then of course, to the south of the country, towards Israel, there is again a lot of bombing occurring. It's much more out of sight. It's very difficult for the press to get down there and to move freely once they're there. And that is where the bulk of the casualties have been over the last few weeks. I've just been sitting down now with the head of the WHO here, who's given us a full briefing. He says in total 1,524 casualties over the last 12 days of the war. That includes 394 deaths and 1,130 people wounded. He is saying that unlike the most recent conflict here, that there's a larger proportion of children, that is people under 18 being hurt and a larger proportion of women being hurt, and a larger proportion of immigrants, particularly Syrians being hurt. The reasons for that are not fully clear, but he puts it down to bombing in densely packed urban residential areas. And although the bombings are no doubt targeted to an extent, they create quite a lot of collateral damage. These are big bombs, they spray a lot of shrapnel about and the blasts themselves are causing injuries to bystanders.

Venetia Rainey (32:27)

I think that's a really important point, Paul, because I just want to pick up on something, a phrase that you used, Hezbollah stronghold, and it might be worth explaining to our listeners. I lived for several years in Beirut and the term Hezbollah stronghold, which is a sort of media shorthand for an area where Hezbollah holds large sway. The term Hezbollah stronghold came up repeatedly. We were always discussing how to sort of get around it, because what it e the public is that everyone in this area is a legitimate target. That's a sort of inference. But of course, as you mentioned, these are very residential areas and the people in There might, majority wise support Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is also a political party as well as a military wing. And often these people have nothing to do with either Hezbollah, the political party or the military wing. They're just ordinary people and they are poorer areas. South Beirut and southern Lebanon are the poorest parts of the country, and so these are the areas that get targeted. And the damage is extensive, as you say.

Paul Newki (33:20)

That's right. When people talk about the city being broken up into different ethnicities, you know, there's a Christian sector, there's a Sunni sector, there's a Shia sector. But just like London, you know, it's not complete. You know, I live in Islington in London. Telegraph readers may regard it as full of lefties, but of course, I live there, and the editor of the Telegraph lives there. So it's like any other big city where this is a shorthand and there's no sense at all in which these areas are absolutely dominated by a single group. This is a very mixed, cosmopolitan city.

Arthur Scott Geddes (33:55)

And of course, this renewed wave of strikes, particularly in Beirut, has triggered a displacement crisis. The numbers are pretty extraordinary. 870,000 people have had to flee their homes. How visible is this crisis on the ground?

Paul Newki (34:08)

It's pretty visible. So all over Beirut, people camped out under bridges along the waterfront. There's a huge amount of traffic. I mean, there's always traffic in this city, but it's massively multiplied at the moment as people have moved up from the south. The director of the WHO I've just been talking to says there's official figures and then there's the real figures. The official figures are those who have formally registered the ones you refer to, which I think are actually nearly 700,000. The unofficial figures are certainly over a million, perhaps a million and a half people displaced now in this country, and that is putting a huge strain on all sorts of services. Many of these people, for example, had to flee their homes without their medicines. Many of them are elderly. So one of the challenges at the moment is to get basic drugs for chronic diseases like diabetes to people who have come and had to leave those drugs behind.

Venetia Rainey (35:11)

What kind of humanitarian response has there been on the ground? We saw that France is going to triple its humanitarian assistance to Lebanon. Are we seeing similar moves from other countries like the uk and what's the state response been from the Lebanese government at the moment?

Paul Newki (35:23)

They are coping. There are very good hospitals and emergency services here, and the director of WHO here was saying that they had been well prepared. You know, they stocked the hospitals well in advance with a Lot of trauma equipment with a lot of training for staff. So at the moment they are managing that side of things. It's much more difficult to manage the displacement crisis that's outside of the healthcare system formally and involves social services. And of course, if you are not getting people enough food, enough shelter and enough warmth, it's actually quite cold here in the evenings currently you see a spike in all sorts of other conditions. So there's a spike, for example, in respiratory illness, there's a spike, for example in diarrhea illness amongst children. And that can only get worse the longer this conflict carries on. And I'm afraid that at the moment no one is optimistic that things are going to be wrapped up. There are really no diplomatic efforts which are meeting any form of success currently. And most people here feel that the conflict is going to escalate considerably before it gets better.

Arthur Scott Geddes (36:41)

So there's been some reporting from the Financial Times that Israeli officials are now preparing for a campaign against Hezbollah that they think will last longer than the war in Iran. What are Israel's aims here?

Paul Newki (36:51)

Israel seems to have decided that now is the moment to, to disarm and finish off Hezbollah once and for all. That's certainly the rhetoric coming out of the Israeli government, and that is, to put it mildly. When you look at some of the rhetoric coming out of the right wing of the government. Some people in Lebanon, I think are mildly sympathetic. There's no one in Lebanon, I think I've come across who is keen on seeing this conflict carry on. But the Israeli call for the Lebanese government to somehow use the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah is a paper tiger. The Lebanese army has not been allowed by America or Israel to equip itself properly over the last decade or so. It's outgunned by Hezbollah to an enormous degree. And there is really no chance of the Lebanese government or the Lebanese army disarming Hezbollah. So when Israel calls for that, it's really calling for something it knows perfectly well can't happen. Israel, as I say, is saying, well, it's going to finish the problem. A year ago Israel was saying, well, it finished off Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon. You will remember it was saying it destroyed all its missile supplies, all its arms caches, all its hideouts. But what do we see now? We see Hezbollah fighting a pretty effective guerrilla war in the south. And just a couple of days ago it fired a very precise ground to ground missile, hitting it said a radar station in Israel and is always throwing small ammunitions over the border. So I think it will escalate, but whether we'll ever see an end to it, I don't know.

Venetia Rainey (38:54)

Can you just explain to our listeners how we have the situation where Hezbollah, which is a political party in Lebanon's parliament, as I said, also has its own military wing that's able to act independently from the Lebanese army?

Paul Newki (39:06)

Hezbollah is a big social movement here amongst its sector of the population. And I think people looking in from outside, at the Middle east more generally don't understand that these are not terrorist cells or terrorist groups in the sense that we might have talked about the Bada Meinhof in the past, or even Al Qaeda in the past. You know, those were groups solely dedicated to. To terrorism. Hezbollah is a social organization in the same way that Hamas is a social political organization which has deep roots in the communities. You know, it provides services, education services, religious services, and even to some extent, sort of social services in the communities it dominates. And that's why it's so embedded. And as you say, yes, it has a military wing, an aggressive military wing that has undoubtedly committed terrible acts of aggression and that is able to operate independently in Lebanon. Unfortunately, by virtue of its firepower, the Lebanese state does not have in its army the firepower to bring it under control, let alone disarm it.

Venetia Rainey (40:26)

It's interesting, isn't it, because you rightly point out that Israel claimed that Hezbollah had been finished off and they are still able to fire some missiles. They do seem to have been heavily degraded their capacities, because we've seen a lot fewer missiles fired than we have in previous bouts of conflicts between Israel and Lebanon. We've also heard from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun being unusually blunt in his criticism of Hezbollah. He referred to Hezbollah as an armed faction, which he doesn't normally do, he said, and it gave no weight to Lebanon's interests or to the lives of its people, and only wanted the collapse of the Lebanese state under aggress. So I guess that speaks to the fracturing, maybe of the protection of Hezbollah or the sort of lack of political will to tackle the issue that it causes in the country.

Paul Newki (41:07)

Yes, he's been very clear that Hezbollah is bringing the country to the brink, that it threatens its collapse by breaking the ceasefire that more or less existed over the last six months to a year. Hezbollah, for its part, is very clear. It is now back at war with Israel following the decapitation strike in Tehran. And although it is true that Hezbollah has been degraded, it is now reverting to an old style guerrilla war, guerrilla tactics. And one shouldn't believe for A moment that it is without considerable capacity. Still, I don't see any prospect of them either turning over or being finished off particularly quickly.

Arthur Scott Geddes (41:57)

So Lebanon has been mired in this very complex, very severe crisis for years and years and years. A political crisis, an economic crisis, and now, you know, they have this renewed round of conflict. How much extra pressure has this put on the country and how much more of this can they take before things start to deteriorate further?

Paul Newki (42:16)

Being here, you realize this is a vibrant city, right? It's got problems, and Lebanon certainly has problems as a whole. Huge problems. But, you know, this is a super vibrant city for the most part. People are going around about their business. The streets are busy, the cafes are busy, the bars are busy. People are having fun, just as they are in Tel Aviv. When we report war, we report very focused in on the flash bangs, the deaths, the destruction. But beyond that immediate vicinity, life goes on. And the hotelier who owns the place I was staying today, you know, he is quiet with one of just a few guests, but he says, you know, once it's over, it'll bounce back in no time. This is still an amazing city and will continue to be, but it faces huge, huge problems until there is a genuine peace established.

Venetia Rainey (43:13)

Just finally, you wrote a very good piece for us up on the Telegraph website now and that we'll link to in the show. Notes about how Iran is engaged in horizontal warfare, trying to spread the conflict as widely as possible to trap Trump and Netanyahu, I suppose. I also saw reporting this morning in Bloomberg that Israel is examining the possibility of establishing a military base in Somaliland to try and counter Yemen's Houthis. They established diplomatic relations with Somaliland at the end of last year. I'm wondering if you see this widening of the conflict to the whole Middle east, you know, Lebanon as a sort of second theater to the Iran war. And. And Yemen, if you see that becoming a semi permanent state of affairs.

Paul Newki (43:51)

Yes. So, first of all, on the horizontal strategy that Iran is adopting, academics have been writing widely on this. It's the same strategy that the North Vietnamese adopted during the Vietnam War. And it's basically a strategy which says you do not fight on the terms of your enemy. So in both those conflicts, Iran and Vietnam, America relied initially extraordinary heavily on air power. It thought it would take out all the industrial infrastructure, the military infrastructure, and then the regime would fold. But in the case of Vietnam, the North Vietnamese said no way, and then invaded cities and towns across South Vietnam, dragging America in and creating huge political leverage which eventually exhausted America. And although they won every battle of the war, as perhaps America is doing here in Iran, they lost the war itself. And that is what Iran is doing. It's extending the battle right across the Gulf states. It's extended it to Lebanon, as we've just been talking about. And the political stakes for America are ratcheting up no end. The oil prices rising, other commodities are being blocked. The FT is writing today about sulfur being blocked from the Straits of Hormuz that's needed for fertilizers and down the chain foods and all sorts of other industries. And then you've got the alliances, America's alliances, which are fracturing. All those Gulf states are now wondering, well, is it such a good idea to have American bases here if they mean we're going to be attacked? So all of those states will be applying huge pressure to America to wrap this up. You already see, of course, tensions in our own relationship with America. Britain, very wisely, in my view, did not get involved in this conflict from the outset. That was the same in Vietnam. We did not get involved. We didn't regard it as a winnable war. But also allies right across Europe are asking questions of America. You know, apart from anything else, America's military might is being sucked in to this perhaps unnecessary conflict in the Middle east, where we've got real challenges in Europe with the war in Ukraine and also in containing China in the Pacific.

Venetia Rainey (46:22)

That was Paul Newki, our global Health Security editor in Beirut.

Arthur Scott Geddes (46:26)

That's all for today's episode. We'll be back tomorrow. Goodbye, Goodbye,

Venetia Rainey (46:33)

Iran. The latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Veneesh Sharaney and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our dispatchers newsletter or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the latest. We're still on the same email address. Battle lineselegra graf.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes. The producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producer is Louisa Wells.

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Sahar Zand (47:45)

With its two juicy beef patties and

Paul Newki (47:47)

three slices of melted cheese topped with

Sahar Zand (47:49)

tangy Big Arc sauce, the Big Arch

Arthur Scott Geddes (47:51)

is what happens when you start making

Sahar Zand (47:53)

a McDonald's burger and never stop. The Big Arch the most McDonald's McDonald's

Paul Newki (47:58)

burger yet for a limited time.