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- [00:04]
Veneesh Sharney
The telegraph.
- [00:11]
Holly Dagres
Oh no, my coffee. Bronnie here.
- [00:16]
Donald Trump
New brawny 3 ply is now more absorbent.
- [00:19]
Holly Dagres
Wow.
- [00:19]
Veneesh Sharney
Got a clean shirt.
- [00:20]
Holly Dagres
Do you wear plaid? Some of the strongest ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we referenc.
- [00:35]
Paige Desorbo
Hey guys. Welcome to Giggly Squad, a place where
- [00:37]
Holly Dagres
we make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves.
- [00:40]
Paige Desorbo
I'm Paige desorbo.
- [00:41]
Holly Dagres
I'm Hannah Berner.
- [00:42]
Paige Desorbo
Welcome to the squad.
- [00:43]
Holly Dagres
Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling during an inappropriate time.
- [00:47]
Paige Desorbo
But of course we can't be managed,
- [00:50]
Holly Dagres
so we decided to start this podcast to continue giggling.
- [00:53]
Paige Desorbo
We will make fun of pop culture news. We're watching fashion trends pep talks where we give advice, mental health moments and games and guests.
- [01:01]
Veneesh Sharney
Listen to Giggly Squad on ACAST or
- [01:03]
Holly Dagres
wherever you get your podcasts. ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com. They are ambling along as a zombie regime, and they're still in power. And they're being met with more international isolation that they were facing before the war.
- [01:30]
Donald Trump
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [01:38]
Paige Desorbo
Today, President Trump says Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.
- [01:49]
Roland Oliphant
The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Does anyone really think that someone can
- [01:58]
Veneesh Sharney
tell President Trump what to do?
- [02:00]
Roland Oliphant
Come on.
- [02:03]
Veneesh Sharney
I'm Venetia Rainey and this is Iran. The Latest. It's Wednesday, April 1, 2026. It's the 33rd day of the war, and on today's episode, we're going to be speaking to Iran expert and author of the Iranist newsletter, Holly Daggers, about why there haven't been more protests inside the country and how the Islamic Republic is becoming a zombie regime. But first, some news updates. And let's kick off with Trump's latest statement posting on Truth Social. Earlier today, he said that Iran has asked for a ceasefire. Here's what he Iran's new regime president, much less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a ceasefire. We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free and clear. Until then, we're blasting Iran into oblivion. Or as they say, back to the Stone Ages. President djt. Now, these comments have not been stood up. We don't know whether Iran has actually asked for a ceasefire. We haven't seen any statements coming out of Iran that indicate that. And we haven't seen any action on the ground that indicates that. But of course, he's privy to a lot more than we are, so who knows? This statement comes on the back of him claiming that he's ready to end the war within two or three weeks, regardless of peace talks. This was him speaking in the White House last night.
- [03:20]
Donald Trump
I would say that within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three, we're hitting them very hard. Last night we knocked out tremendous amounts of missile making facilities. We, as you probably read or wrote, we knocked out. Excuse me, pardon me, interrupting.
- [03:37]
Holly Dagres
Will be. The US Will be gone or done with the war.
- [03:39]
Donald Trump
I think in two or three weeks we'll leave because there's no reason for us to do this. Look, problem with the Strait, a guy can take a mine, drop it in the water and say, oh, it's unsafe. It's not like you're taking out an army or you're taking out a country, or you. They can drop it. Or you can take a machine gun from the shore and shoot a little. Few bullets on a ship or maybe an over the shoulder missile. Small missiles. That's not for us. That'll be for France. That'll be for whoever's using the strain. But I think when we leave, probably that's all cleared up today. I heard tremendous numbers of ships were sailing through. We're negotiating with them right now. They've been. Again, we have had regime change. Now, regime change was not one of the things I had as a goal. I had one goal. They will have no nuclear weapon.
- [04:30]
Veneesh Sharney
This follows him yesterday morning telling the UK and other countries to go get your own oil and just take the Strait of Hormuz. As we discussed on the podcast yesterday, Trump is set to deliver an address to the nation tonight. American time. So 1am GMT, 9pm EST. And that's to, quote, provide an important update on Iran. Is he going to announce boots on the ground? Is he going to announce an end to the war? It's anyone's guess. We still have this mass troop buildup in the Middle east ready and waiting, and Iran has made it clear that it's ready for whatever the US Throws at it. So we had today coming out of Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz will only reopen to those who comply with its new laws. And definitely not American vessels. The government approved a proposal earlier this week to toll ships who are passing through the strait. They have been charging £1.5 million to transit. We don't know whether that char. Continue. We've also heard Abbas Araghi, Iran's foreign minister, going on Al Jazeera and saying that the country could happily fight on for six more months. He said, we do not set any deadlines for defending ourselves. We will defend our country and our people as far as necessary and by any means required. It does not matter what timelines our enemies set for themselves. He's also confirmed that they did receive messages from Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, but said that this does not mean that we're in negotiations. He added, we do not have any faith that negotiations with the US will yield any results. The trust level is at zero now. Elsewhere in the region, a really big story has just been broken by the Wall Street Journal. They are reporting that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies potentially open the Strait of Hormuz by force. Now, this is according to Arab officials talking to the newspaper, and the Wall Street Journal writes that this would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant in the war. According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE is lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution that would authorise such action. And Emirati diplomats have urged the US and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the Strait by force. If this does come to pass, it would be very significant. We haven't seen any other countries deploying their militaries in the Strait of Hormuz and joining American Israel in this war. So the potential ramifications for this if it comes to pass would be big. But there's a big question about who else would join this coalition. We had British Prime Minister Sakir Starmer saying today that the Foreign Secretary will be hosting a summit of international leaders to discuss plans to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. That sounds quite far away from military force in the Strait, of course. And Europe has remained very resistant to joining in this war in any sort of way. So yesterday we had Italy blocking US warplanes from using an American base in Sicily. And on Monday, Spain closed its airspace to all American planes involved in attacks on Iran. The UK is in a slightly funny position. After initially following a similar line. Keir Starmer within a few days did say that the US could use UK bases. So that's in Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. But speaking today, Starmer insisted that Britain was not going to be getting any more involved.
- [07:37]
Roland Oliphant
This is not our war. We will not be drawn into the conflict that is not in our national interest and the most effective way we can support the cost of living in Britain is to push for de escalation in the Middle east and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is such a vital route for energy.
- [08:03]
Veneesh Sharney
There's some mixed messaging here because we've also heard from John Healey, the British Defence Secretary, that the UK is deploying dozens of troops and its most advanced air defence missile system, skysaber, to Saudi Arabia to help boost protection of the Gulf. There are now almost 2,000 British troops committed to responding to the crisis in the Gulf, with a thousand deployed across the Middle East. The UK is obviously classifying this as defensive operations and is not committing to anything that could be considered even vaguely offensive, let alone putting any kind of warships in the Strait of Hormuz. So we'll see if this coalition that the UAE seems to be pitching for actually comes to pass. We've also heard more from America about how furious they are with the UK in particular not providing more support in the Strait of Hormuz. This was Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defence, singling out the UK in his press conference yesterday. I think the President was clear this
- [08:56]
Holly Dagres
morning in his truth that there are countries around the world who ought be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. It's not just the United States Navy. Last time I checked, there was supposed to be a big bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that as well.
- [09:14]
Veneesh Sharney
There's clearly a souring mood in Washington about this whole Strait of Hormuz mess and growing signs that they would quite like to just wash their hands of the whole thing. So what would happen if the US just left the Strait, as things were now? Well, my co host Roland Oliphant has been looking at four possible outcomes and sent us this voice note.
- [09:34]
Roland Oliphant
The first immediate possibility is that things carry on as they are now. And the new normal is that Iran maintains a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormu as it continues to impose a selective blockade. That means that while the threat of attack by drone or missile keeps insurance premiums up and most vessels at bay and unable to travel through the Strait into the Persian Gulf, or vice versa, ships from Iran and friendly countries are allowed through probably via the semi formal transit corridor they've opened up around Larrack island near the Iranian coast. Now, the details of this arrangement are incredibly opaque. Sometimes ships are going through with a transponders turned off. It's not clear at all what kind of agreements have been cut between the Iranians and the shipping companies and owners and other governments of flag States to allow the handful of ships through that have gone through. But essentially, Iran has a degree of control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that nobody else has and which it didn't have before the war. And it's also making a lot of money because it is still shipping just as much oil as it did before the war. Its own tankers are leaving completely unimpeded, and it is charging very high rates for oil because the price of oil is obviously going through the roof. So that's scenario one. Iran maintains its fairly opaque selective blockade. Option two is like option one, but with the additional option of monetizing this. People are calling this the toll booth option. And the Iranians are already talking about formalizing this. And in public, there's no public evidence that any money has actually changed hands yet. I was speaking to Michelle Boekman of Windward yesterday, and she said, look, there's nothing that allows me as an analyst to say definitely anybody's actually paid, but the Iranians are saying they want people to pay how much? Borojedi, a member of the Iranian Parliament Security committee, said on March 22 that Iran is charging about $2 million as transit fee, essentially a toll booth. That is that scenario number two. Scenario number three, a UN Humanitarian corridor of some sort. And I use that because I think the model that industry specialists are looking at is akin to the. The grain corridor that was established in 2022-2023, lasted about a year, that allowed shipments of basically food commodities to get across the Black Sea unmolested out of Ukraine and Russia after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is probably the most likely around the threat of a toll booth or of breaking Iran's stranglehold on the strait. What it would look like is unclear, but Marco Rubio has talked about talking to G7 ministers about a multinational consortium to take over the management of the strait. So those are three possible outcomes if America leaves now without forcing the strait open. But there is 1 1/4 possibility. It looks slim at the moment, but. But it cannot. It'll be ruled out, and that is that. Everything just goes back to normal. It sounds a bit strange when I put it like that in the context of today, but think about it this way. So closing the Strait of Hormuz was, for Iran, a nuclear option. It was a desperate measure for desperate times. The point of that nuclear option is to make the war too expensive for America and Israel to continue to prosecute it, to force the Americans and the Israelis to stop bombing. And the idea is that if this works, then the regime can outlast America. There is going to be widespread shipping disruption that lasts months, not weeks, no matter which scenario we are looking at. And there is a humanitarian issue here. There are about 20,000 sailors stranded on vessels, about 3,200 vessels stuck inside the Persian Gulf unable to leave. And what happens to those people is a matter of increasing concern to their governments and to shipping companies and of course, their families.
- [13:40]
Veneesh Sharney
Away from the Strait of Hormuz, a quick look at what else has been going on in the region. In Israel, we've had 14 wounded, including an 11 year old girl in a critical condition in central Israel's B' Nai Brak following a missile barrage, including cluster munitions on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the Iran backed Houthis says the group has carried out a third strike on Israel. They claimed it was conducted in cooperation with Iran and Hezbollah in the Gulf states continuing to face projectile attacks from Iran. In the uae, a Bangladeshi man died after debris from an interceptor drone fell. In Qatar, three cruise missiles were fired towards the country. Two were successfully intercepted, but one did get through and struck a tanker. In Bahrain, there were sirens this morning and emergency workers responding to a fire in the facility of a company as a result of the Iranian aggression. That's all we know for now. According to the Ministry of Interior in Saudi Arabia, the Defence Ministry said it had intercepted and destroyed two drones this morning and more last night. And in Kuwait, the international airport was struck overnight causing a fire. And the nearby national bank of Kuwait has announced that it will close its headquarters for the next few days for safety reasons. In Lebanon, Israel has intensified and expanded its attacks. This week it struck a vehicle north of Beirut without warning, as well as the Jannah neighbourhood in the heart of the capital. Attacks have also continued in the city's southern suburbs and the country's south, where Israel has said it's expanding its current offensive and will be setting up a security buffer zone. And then just finally, China and Pakistan have released a joint five Point initiative peace plan. This is following a meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries on Tuesday. The plan includes an immediate ceasefire, peace talks as soon as possible, protecting civilians and non military targets, securing shipping lanes and strengthening multilateralism through the UN Charter. A couple of stories I want to flag from the Telegraph. Our US Correspondent Connor Stringer has spoken to Donald Trump again and has a fantastic exclusive that Trump has said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO. For more on that story, do check out our website. I'll put a Link to this in the show notes and listen to our sister podcast, Ukraine, the latest where they will be speaking to Connor later today. But basically, Trump labeled the alliance a paper tiger and said removing America from the defense treaty was now beyond reconsideration. More signs that American fury over the refusal of NATO and its European allies to partake in this Iran war is starting to have bigger ramifications. My colleague on the foreign desk, Iona Cleave, has been writing about Kesham Island. We've mentioned this island a few times. It's the largest in the Persian Gulf, dominates the narrow, narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz. And she's been writing about how this has become a choke point for Tehran to hold the global economy hostage. And then finally, our foreign correspondent, Akhtar McCoy has been writing about how Iran plans to fight US troops if Trump does decide to invade. He looks at how Tehran has spent four decades and billions of dollars preparing to counter ground operation and that the IRGC is specifically prepared for this kind of asymmetric warfare. So do go check that out. I'll put links to all of those stories in the show notes. We're going to take a short break now. Coming up afterwards, we'll be speaking to Holly Dagres about why there haven't been more defections in the Iranian regime.
- [17:03]
Roland Oliphant
Say hello to Mia.
- [17:04]
Holly Dagres
Hey there.
- [17:05]
Roland Oliphant
Mia runs a pet grooming service in Chicago. But getting new clients was rough until
- [17:09]
Holly Dagres
I started using acast. I recorded my ad, targeted pet owners in the area and let ACAST do the rest. Now people all over the city know about my grooming services. Mia's business is looking sharp. What's your secret for happy pets and happy clients? A fresh cut, a friendly vibe and a well placed podcast ad.
- [17:26]
Roland Oliphant
Get the word out about your business through Acast. Visit go acast.com advertise to get started.
- [17:39]
Veneesh Sharney
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran the Latest. Last Friday, my co host Roland Oliphant and our senior foreign correspondent Sophia Yan interviewed, interviewed Holly Dagres. Holly is an Iranian American analyst and commentator on the Middle East. She's also the author of the weekly newsletter the Iranist. Sophia and Roland spoke to her about why there haven't been more defections in the Iranian regime and the apparent divergence between Washington and Israel's war goals. Here's their conversation.
- [18:05]
Roland Oliphant
Holly, digress. Welcome to Iran. The Latest. Obviously you've been following the conflict very closely for the Iranist, which you edit. What can you tell us about the latest about what's going on on the ground in Iran. And I'm sorry to throw that question to you. Part of the reason is that it is just so difficult for us being outside the country to get a sense of what's going on on the ground. How are you finding it at the moment?
- [18:30]
Holly Dagres
I think it's important to emphasize that there's an Internet shutdown, but that's been ongoing since February 28, when the war began. It's the longest Internet shutdown in the history of Iran, but it's not the first. We had another similar incident in January. During the unprecedented massacre, the regime felt threatened enough that it not only cut out the Internet, but also the landline. So we weren't able to talk to our friends and family in Iran for a while there. Right now, it's more or less the same thing. Landlines are working. There's a lot of static. It's clear that they're being listened in on. And it's expensive. It's expensive for Iranians to call their loved ones abroad because of the real dollar conversion rate. What we're really relying on mostly these days is Starlink. There's about 50 to 60,000 terminal users. They've been smuggling in Starlink since the 2022 Woman Life Freedom Uprising. But unfortunately, now they're also cracking down on them and accusing people of possessing them, of being spies of Israel and the United States.
- [19:40]
Roland Oliphant
Given all that, with all those caveats, what's your sense of the mood on the ground in Iran and what's happening?
- [19:46]
Holly Dagres
Initially there were videos when the war began, of celebration when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. We saw people dancing in the streets, waving white napkins, honking their horns. And it might not seem like a big deal to some people that that was happening, but that was actually a sign of extraordinary bravery because it comes with ramifications of getting killed in the streets or imprisonment. And we saw actually at least some reports of people getting shot at. There was two boys under the age of 18, I believe, that were shot in their father's car and killed because his father was honking his horn in celebration. There's mixed emotions. I think there's a real hope, hope among some anti regime Iranians for a new Iran, one where the Islamic Republic no longer exists. There's also fear. There's fear that this is war. Tehran has been hit heavily and nobody's really safe. No matter how surgical a strike can be, if you're living next to top military breaths, there's blowback. That damaged building will damage your building and can also kill you. And so we've had I think close, close to 1500 civilian casualties, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran. And so there's a real fear of war, but there's also a fear of what happens if the Islamic Republic survives and what kind of repression it would unleash on its people. And that's a real big worry that Iranians also have. You're seeing different sentiments. People can fill many things in one day. I saw people were happy that Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larjani was killed. There was some celebration. And then of course, let's say somebody loses a loved one in the war, then they're mourning. So I think it's really hard to pinpoint one specific sentiment, but I think those are really the trends you're seeing at this juncture.
- [21:47]
Paige Desorbo
Holly, I wanted to ask you about these figures from Rana, the 1500 that you mentioned. Earlier on in the war, there was a lot of discussion about whether or not this could prompt a popular uprising. That hasn't happened. We're nearly a month in, as you noted. Do you have any sense of where things can go from here? Because as you have described and as we have reported here, the impact of this war is growing and this is hitting people in many different ways. It's not just leadership that's being assassinated. People are afraid. At what point does this tip over into something where civilians do start to think about whether or not they should perhaps take action?
- [22:20]
Holly Dagres
I think the real issue we're having is we haven't seen defections. And without defections, without the sense that the security forces aren't going to mow people down like they did in January during this unprecedented massacre where thousands if not tens of thousands of Iranians were killed in the span of 48 hours, something that's really still deeply on the minds of Iranians. It's hard to imagine, at least in this moment that they would take to the streets. Perhaps if they felt that the regime was collapsing, that could happen. Or maybe we'll be surprised. And when the war does end, maybe there'll be a sense of people wanting to take control of their own future when they don't see such a high security presence. So it's really hard to predict that. But I think at this moment it's hard to see.
- [23:10]
Roland Oliphant
There's been some reporting around the execution of people who were involved in the January uprising. One case, which I believe is actually from last week, they hanged a 19 year old wrestler and two other men in Qom, the holy city south of Tehran, both for being linked to January's anti regime protests. It's interesting to me that this crackdown on dissent is still going on despite the war continuing. I was wondering whether they might actually ease up on that as a kind of, I don't know, it's a moment of national emergence. Let's all team together to defend the country. But it sounds like that's not happening. Do you expect that to get worse?
- [23:48]
Holly Dagres
There were actually four executions last week. One was a Swedish Iranian dual national on allegations of espionage for Israel in the United States he was arresting after the 12 day war in June of last year. And then there were the three protesters linked to the January uprising. First, we're dealing with an inherently paranoid regime, one that always thought a velvet revolution was being produced by outside powers, that being the United States, Britain, Israel. That fear has really come to head at this moment when there were explicit calls of regime change by Israel and the United States, at least at the beginning of this war. We still hear it from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And this is a regime that just doesn't trust its population and it doesn't trust that its population won't try to oust them. And so it doesn't surprise me that there's such a high security presence on the street because this is an authoritarian regime that wants to keep its hold on power. I wrote actually earlier this month for New Lines magazine, an article about the massacre in January and how it was on the level of Bashar al Assad level atrocities. And it was because they actually had repressed the population in Syria. And when it came to their own moment, when they faced their own demise, they were willing to unleash their that same sort of repression on its people. And that's why you really get this worry from Iranians on the ground what happens if the Islamic Republic survives. This is now, at this moment, an IRA regime that appears to be more hardline before and arguably would be more repressive. And I know that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has been hoping for a Venezuela like scenario, but I think what he's created in this moment is in North Korea and one that if it had its shredders and was able to develop nuclear capabilities again like before, would certainly go for a nuclear weapon because it would deter them from a future conflict.
- [25:54]
Paige Desorbo
So, Holly, I wanted to ask you about possible off ramps. So right now we're getting some sense that perhaps there's back channeling going on, there's intermediaries involved in these peace talks. We're not still getting confirmation from the Iranian side that they are happening, but it seems like something's afraid of foot. What's your take on what we do know?
- [26:12]
Holly Dagres
It seems that there's a real push, interestingly from, I would call them a motley crew of countries, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt that are really scrambling around trying to make something happen. Seems that a military chief in Pakistan has been leaving it on their own and has allegedly close ties to the IRGC or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I can't imagine the Iranians giving the United States and Israel what it wants, which is full control of its nuclear program, its ballistic missile program. There's just been so much blood and treasure on the part of the Iranians spent on the nuclear program, billions of dollars, scientists that were assassinated. And the ballistic missiles have proved to be useful for them, as we've seen unfortunately in the past four weeks. And that's deeply rooted from their sense of vulnerability during the bloody eight year war with Iraq in the 1980s. I just can't see them giving that up. I think they're really actually counting on the President of the United States to blink first. They have something, they've dubbed it allegedly Operation Madman. And their whole theory was this, that first they would attack neighbors in the region, Arab countries, with the hopes that they would call up the United States and call for a ceasefire. Presumably another tactic would be that there would be coffins of American soldiers and that would push Americans to become very anti war and call up their members of Congress. It would incense the MAGA base. And then finally, I think the big lever, which is the one we're seeing right now, which seems to be the big pressure point, was closing the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices up, up. They have a real hold on that last bit. They've done a good job of that. The United States can't leave this war until that aspect of the war is solved. But that's really what the Iranians are counting on. And the crazy thing is when this war inevitably ends and if this regime survives, which seems very likely, they will declare victory on that very premise, and they will start using the Strait of Hormuz as a tactic in the future.
- [28:19]
Roland Oliphant
Can I flip that around? The so say the American military delivers and these Marines and the 82nd Airborne and whoever else are able to open the Strait and are able to defy Iranian missiles and drones and whatever. In that case, wouldn't that mean that the regime's last gamble has failed? If you see What I mean, because it sounds to me like you're saying, you know, their first gamble was we'll hit neighbouring countries and it will force America to stop the war. Didn't work. We'll kill American servicemen, it'll force America to stop the war. Didn't work. Say the Americans succeed in opening the strait, where does that then leave the regime? Does that leave them without a plan?
- [28:56]
Holly Dagres
It leaves them in a place like the Bashar Al Assad regime or Saddam Hussein post1991 Persian Gulf War, where they're ambling along as a zombie regime and they're still in power and they're being met with more international isolation that they were facing before the war. But despite all that, they're going to declare victory on the very simple premise that they were able to survive this and they'll say it proudly, but unfortunately it means they're dragging their people with it, because the systemic issues that have always been there, that have sent people to the streets to overthrow the regime for years now, mismanagement, corruption, repression, will continue to be there. There'll be an environmental crisis. And years down the road, what exists of this regime will drag its people down. And unfortunately, we may see a mass exodus of Iranians years down the line because of the conditions on the ground and especially on the issue of water.
- [29:58]
Paige Desorbo
From day one, there have been killings of top leadership. Somehow Iran has managed to survive all this time, but now the targeting is very specific. What does this tell you about what the strategy is going forward for what the US and the Israelis might be trying to do in of terms. Terms of who they are seeking to kill?
- [30:13]
Holly Dagres
It's been really interesting to watch because of course, the US and Israel have both explicitly said this was regime change. And initially it looked like that with Khamenei's killing at the beginning of the war, they've obviously been going after top military brass related to nuclear drones, ballistic missiles. The reality, though, is that the bench is really deep. This is a deeply intense regime. And I think one of the things that they miscalculated on is that because of the 12 day war in June last year, the Iranians recognized that regime change was a real possibility. They started planning four layers deep, so they've got four layers of people to replace. That's how deep they thought about these issues. Parliament's still very much functioning. We have the presidency still functioning, the judiciary. None of these three branches of power have been targeted. I think in recent days, we saw actors of repression be targeting the Security Council. Secretary Ali Larajani he was targeted. And then it was Holam Rezos Soleimani, the Basij commander who's responsible for the repression of protesters through the besieged. And of course Larajani was said to be the one that called for the massacres in January. And then finally we saw the intelligence minister also get killed. And to me it suggested they were going after actors of repression. And just days prior to those events, we started seeing drones attacking checkpoints. What really was the tell that they were going after these actors of repression was that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had made a speech telling Iranians or calling on them to rise up and that they were going to create conditions for them to rise up, up. So that was very clear to me. But the regime's still very much in power and I think we don't talk about that enough. We assume that just one guy at the top getting removed would change everything or it would collapse like a house of cards. And it turned out that this transition was a lot smoother than I think some people anticipated. I think for people like myself and Iran analyst that's been studying this for a long time, it didn't surprise me. But I'm not exactly sure who was communicating to the President that this was going to be a cakewalk. Granted, I think he genuinely wanted just to remove Khamenei so he can get the next person in line that would make the deal he wanted.
- [32:46]
Paige Desorbo
There was so much Prep after the 12 day war last year to ensure a survival strategy. Do you think it is possible for Trump and Bibi to bomb their way into pushing defections? Or do you think it's actually perhaps having the opposite of impact, that people are doubling down at a more mid or junior level.
- [33:06]
Holly Dagres
Defections are interesting because they mean many things. You don't have to publicly declare you're defecting, which actually would be treason, would probably result in someone's execution, but it could mean not showing up to work, fading illness. And we've had reports in recent days that some of these soldiers have been not going to man the anti air defense defense capabilities in Tehran, for example. And we've also had four Iranian diplomats reportedly defect from their embassies. Two in January after the unprecedented massacre and two during the war. I think the issue is that two things Western governments haven't incentivized or top leadership to defect. That's something as an analyst I've been advocating for since 2022, but we also haven't seen them stop the cash flow of paying for these members of the security forces on the ground. And I have to say, not everyone is in it for the ideological reasons. Some are literally there because of the money. And I think if they could stop the cash flow, I imagine that some of these characters would stay home, would stay with their family. But I haven't at least publicly seen either of those happen. And so I think they're also key. They're key to really eroding the regime. And I just haven't seen it so far.
- [34:35]
Roland Oliphant
Barak Ravid, the Israeli Axios reporter based in Washington. He's reporting that White House officials have started suspecting that some in the Israeli government are trying to smear JD Vans after a difficult phone call between Netanyahu and Van. In the call, Vance mentioned that several of Netanyahu's predictions about the war had proved far too optimistic, particularly when it came to the prospect of a popular uprising to topple the regime. And he cites both an Israeli and a US Source on that. I'm wondering what you make, you know, being there in America, what you make of this apparent diversion between the expectations and also the goals of the two allies of Washington and Israel.
- [35:18]
Holly Dagres
There's reportedly been a divergence some time. I think they initially had this unified messaging of regime change, and then over time, the goals, I think, or goal posts for each country changed. J.D. vance, the Vice president's interesting because he is an isolationist and we really haven't heard much from him. He's against forever wars, and I think he has a real worry that there's that possibility. I don't think that Iran's a forever war, but the fact that they're deploying Americans, and I'm hearing people are actually getting deployed to the region that are like maybe 2 or 3 degrees separation from me, I think that's really sinking in that this is like a forever war for some Americans, even though you and I know this isn't Afghanistan and Iraq, at least at this moment. I think that the isolationist space is really struggling in this moment. And I'm not surprised that somebody like Vice President Vance would be bumping heads with the Israeli prime minister, who's been for years, if not decades, talking about this moment of bombing Iran, but also with the hope of ousting this regime for the time being. It seems like at least the reports are suggesting that they want to make sure that Israel is satisfied with its goals being met and it's able to wear down the ballistic missiles capabilities. And what other items they're thinking about that we don't know publicly.
- [36:48]
Roland Oliphant
Can I ask a Kind of slightly personal question, Holly, which is where you find yourself feeling this because you're an Iranian, but you're also an American. An Iranian American, right? I mean, both your countries are now fighting one another. I suppose your choice of abode in the United States tells you where your sympathies lie to a degree. How do you feel about all this?
- [37:09]
Holly Dagres
I think my story is even more complex because I'm actually literally half. My late mother was Iranian. My dad's from California by way of Wyoming. I was born in Los Angeles, but I spent my formative years in Tehran. So for me, it's personal in a way. It might not be personal for some members of the diaspora because I've literally lived it, but I've also made a career out of it. And I was in Iran when the global war on terror began. 9, 11, all that stuff. And I remember there was a time that we really thought in the late years of the Bush administration that Iran would be the third country on the list. And so I got very interested in US foreign policy from my teen years. And I really went into the this career because I wanted to prevent a war, actually. And so it's such a weird feeling to sit here knowing that there are Iranians inside the country that have been so in such a hurt place because of the 47 years of living under the Islamic Republic. And especially what they saw with this unprecedented massacre that they were calling for R2P or responsibility to protect. And we heard this from people like human rights lawyer Nasserina Sutoudeh inside the country that some people were asking that they be bombed in essence. And you know, that's a really hard thing for me to feel living here in my ivory tower in Washington. And so I find myself feeling so many complex feelings. I'm like, I can't. I can't put myself in their shoes. I have privilege. I have an American passport. But I also, being a child of the global war on terror, know what comes next isn't good. I've also lived through the Arab Spring when I was a grad student in Egypt. I've seen different waves of this and I want to hope as an Iranian American that the Iran that we all hope for, especially those inside Iran that are anti regime, a free and democratic Iran would come out of this. But my analyst hat just doesn't see it. And so I just find myself veering in different directions. But I think that just because this war ends tomorrow doesn't mean we won't. They won't get that one day or maybe in the near future. It's very complex to be me in this moment. And I think not just me, but anybody with an Iranian identity that has family high. And I do have family in Iran, and I don't get to hear from them.
- [39:47]
Roland Oliphant
You haven't heard from them since the war began?
- [39:49]
Holly Dagres
Not really. There were a couple of instances where they managed to call or the Internet would, like have a blimp where we momentarily will hear from our loved ones and then it'll go right back offline. So if you have WhatsApp or Signal, you're probably familiar with the one check, two check. So usually most of these messages are in one check mode, but then out of nowhere, you'll see they'll turn into two check. And I had one relative to just message me and say, holly, we're okay, don't worry. And then at the beginning of a war, I had a cousin and that. That blew my mind and was very humbling. Two days before my actual birthday wished me a happy birthday. And I'm like, you're literally having bombs dropped on your capital and you're thinking about my birthday. And we also had Iranian new year on March 20, the spring equinox or NUS. And I remember feeling guilty or feeling bad about going and shopping to prepare for Nowruz. And then I saw a couple of images come out of Iran that Iranians were doing that still, that during wartime, they were still living. And I thought it was important that we honor that, that we too live in honor of them. And I think that's important that life goes on even during war. And we've seen this, I think, in Ukraine and in other countries. I will keep my hope just like them, because hope springs eternal. And so I hope for a Nowruz, a new day in Iran.
- [41:19]
Veneesh Sharney
That was Holly Dagres, American Iranian analyst and author of the Iranist newsletter. That's all for today's episode of Iran the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye. Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Veneesh Sharney and Roland Olyphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our Dispatchers newsletter or listen to our system to podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address battlelinestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes. The producer is Peter Shevlin. The Executive Producer is Louisa Wells.
- [42:16]
Holly Dagres
With Verbocare. Help is always ready before, during and after your stay. We've planned for the plot twists so support is always available because a great trip starts with peace of mind. ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend.
- [42:40]
Veneesh Sharney
Hey, it's Christy and I'm Kelly.
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Paige Desorbo
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Veneesh Sharney
Well, this is Back to the Bar,
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Holly Dagres
the podcast where we drag out every insane, chaotic and iconic moment from the show.
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Paige Desorbo
We're spilling the tea, calling out all the BS and sharing stuff you definitely
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Veneesh Sharney
didn't see on tv.
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Holly Dagres
New episodes drop every week and yes,
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Paige Desorbo
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Veneesh Sharney
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Holly Dagres
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