Is Europe being dragged into Trump’s Iran war?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Iran: The Latest – "Is Europe being dragged into Trump’s Iran war?"

Host: The Telegraph
Date: March 4, 2026
Main Presenters: Venetia Rainey, Roland Oliphant
Key Guests: Nazanin Ansari (Iranian-British journalist), Sophia Yan (Telegraph Senior Foreign Correspondent), Dr. Hanan Balki (WHO Regional Director)

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Episode Overview

This episode provides in-depth analysis and on-the-ground perspectives of the expanding conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran in the wake of major American and Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. The focus is on the strain this crisis is placing on the Western alliance, especially the UK's difficult position, and the broader European response. The hosts examine the dilemmas faced by European states about involvement, discuss the impact on civilians inside Iran, and present exclusive insights from border regions, as well as a global health and humanitarian perspective.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Is the UK Now Part of the War?

[01:48 – 04:22]

• Current Status: The UK initially resisted allowing US use of British bases for operations but has since given limited, "defensive" permission after Iran targeted British assets and citizens in the region.

• Public Messaging: The government frames involvement as protective, focusing on British lives at risk, especially after attacks on RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and with many British citizens present in the Gulf.

• Legal and Moral Implications:

  “Once you’ve given the permission for another country to use your bases for involvement in military activity, that makes you legally complicit, legally part of it, and some people say morally part of the war as well.” – Roland Oliphant [03:16]

• Political Calculus: The British government is trying to maintain a degree of distance to avoid deeper entanglement, complicated by the ‘special relationship’ with the US and critical real estate like Diego Garcia.

2. Capacity and Role of the UK Military

[05:50 – 09:32]

• Limited Resources: The UK’s contribution is restricted by its small, stretched armed forces. The Royal Navy's warship HMS Dragon is headed to the region, but France has upstaged the UK with the rapid deployment of its flagship aircraft carrier.
• RAF Involvement:
  • Already intercepting drones; Typhoon and F35 jets in the Gulf.
  • No current US/Israeli request for more direct British involvement in offensive operations.
  • If forced, UK likely to limit participation only to defensive actions (“suppressing” Iranian missile capabilities to protect British bases and citizens).
• Strategic Dilemmas:

  “You’re keeping [forces] around Europe in the North Atlantic to deal with whatever the Russians are going to do, or do you want to send it to the Eastern Mediterranean?” – Roland Oliphant [07:10]

3. US Political Pressure and Scenarios for Deeper British Involvement

[09:32 – 12:04]

• Two scenarios could force British escalation:

  1. Direct Iranian Attack with mass British casualties.
  2. American Pressure—withholding intelligence sharing, nuclear servicing, or Ukraine support.

• Currently, the Americans and Israelis show no military need for UK forces, suggesting further involvement would be driven by politics, not operational necessity.

4. European Fractures and Broader Repercussions

[12:04 – 15:08]

• Public Opinion: British public opposes intervention (YouGov: 49% against, 28% for).
• Diverging National Stances:
  • France increasing military presence and revising nuclear doctrine.
  • Spain prohibits use of its bases for Iran strikes; Spanish PM calls intervention “unjustified, dangerous.”
  • EU struggles for a unified position; some call for regime change, others for caution.
• Supply Chain Impact: European and global resources being diverted to the Middle East, at the expense of Ukraine and Pacific security.

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On-the-Ground: Iranian Views and Civilian Toll

5. Interview with Nazanin Ansari (British-Iranian Journalist, Kayhan London)

[15:08 – 33:53]

a. Iranian Society at a Turning Point

• Jubilation and Caution: Some Iranians celebrate Khamenei’s death, but genuine relief is on hold – “there’s a lot of debris on the ground and a lot of dust in the skies.” [15:30]
• Democratic Hopes:

  “If there is one country in the Middle East that is most ready for democracy, it is Iran… In 1978-79, Iran was the first country that really experienced Islamism. Now, after two generations, they’ve had enough.” – Nazanin Ansari [16:30]

• Mass Protests, Heavy Repression: Millions demonstrated; regime killed over 30,000 in two days (Jan 8–9), placing recent civilian losses in context.

b. Leadership Uncertainties & Western Influence

• Reza Pahlavi:

  • Popular among some, but questioned by Trump; ultimately, “It is that nation, the people on the streets, that will choose their leader. It is not Mr. Trump or any foreign leader.” – Nazanin Ansari [19:39]
  • Regime is fractured; unclear who will control next.
  • Mojtaba Khamenei (Ayatollah’s son) may succeed, but seen as more of the same.

• Regime Nature & Loss of Legitimacy:

  • Regime’s military and economic policies alienated many; little legitimacy remains after recent violence.

c. Civilian Suffering and War Costs

• Is the Price Too High? Guests contend that while no one wants war, the opportunity costs of the regime's continued rule are “humongous.” [28:16]
• “In two nights, they killed over 30,000 Iranians themselves. So this is how the Iranians will look at it… There is more chance [for progress] without them.” – Nazanin Ansari [29:56]

d. What’s Next?

• Opposition leaders urge caution; widespread protests are on hold, awaiting a clearer international position or a transitional government.
• For now, the fear of repression persists.

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Reporting from Turkish-Iranian Border

6. Dispatch by Sophia Yan

[36:17 – 41:09]

• Human Toll Intensifies: “For everyone, the human cost of this war is horrifying. Hundreds estimated to have died. People are breaking down in tears when they talk about the 150 schoolchildren killed in a US Israeli attack.” – Sophia Yan [36:17]
• Complex Feelings: Many cheer Khamenei’s death but dread being caught in a superpower proxy war.
• Some Iranians believe only external intervention can break the cycle of repression, but many fear "America's war" – “Of course I want the government to change. We've lived under the same regime for years. But I don't want America's war in my country.” – Iranian refugee [39:18]
• China’s Stance: China positions itself as a calm alternative to the US, focusing on its self-interest and non-interference, even as its economy feels the strain from global fallout.

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Health & Humanitarian Response

7. Interview: Dr. Hanan Balki, WHO (Eastern Mediterranean)

[42:08 – 53:19]

a. Priorities and Preparedness

• Main Concerns: Protecting staff; ensuring medical logistics, fuels, oxygen, trauma supplies etc., are available, especially inside Iran.
• Surveillance: Maintenance of disease monitoring and early warning systems for outbreaks exacerbated by war.

b. Chemical & Nuclear Readiness

• Contingency Planning: Potassium iodide already pre-distributed in case of nuclear incidents; preparations for various chemical attack scenarios.
• Systemic Strains: Prolonged war could devastate supply chains and healthcare if international law is not respected.
• Regional Anxiety: Widespread fear and uncertainty in Persian Gulf and Central Asia; hope that conflict ends soon.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On UK’s Dilemma:

  “There are really serious political and military calculations that underpin Britain's reluctance to get involved.” – Roland Oliphant [05:21]

• Donald Trump on UK:

  “This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.” – Donald Trump [04:51]

• Iranian Perspective:

  “It is that nation, the people on the streets, that will choose their leader. It is not Mr. Trump or any foreign leader.” – Nazanin Ansari [19:39]

• On Civilian Suffering:

  “Who wants war?... Every day that the Islamic Republic has been in existence, we have lost a lot of the potential… The cost…has been humongous.” – Nazanin Ansari [28:16]

• Border Voices:

  “Of course I want the government to change...But I don’t want America’s war in my country.” – Iranian refugee via Sophia Yan [39:18]

• WHO on Humanitarian Risks:

  “If it’s not controlled… this can turn into an utter disaster.” – Dr. Hanan Balki [53:19]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------|-------------| | UK Involvement & Bases Debate | 01:48–04:22 | | UK Military Assets & Role | 05:50–09:32 | | Political Pressure & Scenarios for Escalation| 09:32–12:04 | | European Reactions & Fractures | 12:04–15:08 | | Nazanin Ansari Interview (Iranian View) | 15:08–33:53 | | Sophia Yan Dispatch (Turkish-Iranian Border) | 36:17–41:09 | | Dr. Hanan Balki (WHO Health Response) | 42:08–53:19 |

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Tone and Language

The hosts and guests speak with sober urgency, emphasizing the complexity, tragedy, and high stakes of the current conflict. There’s a clear commitment to factual reporting, tempered by empathy for the suffering of civilians and keen awareness of the geopolitical dilemmas faced by Western governments.

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Conclusion

This episode underscores how the war in Iran is straining Europe’s alliances and internal politics, with the UK drawn in despite reluctance and public opposition. The situation for Iranian civilians is dire, with thousands dead from regime violence and the new war, and the country at an unprecedented political crossroads. The humanitarian response is ongoing but fraught with risk. Meanwhile, global powers like China are watching and positioning themselves for advantage.

For more insights, listen to the full episode and read the related articles linked in the show notes.

Transcript

[Narrator/Advertiser]

The telegraph.

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[Venetia Rainey]

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[Advertiser]

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[Dr. Hanan Balki]

Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams. One of a kind.

[Venetia Rainey]

Ebay had it.

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

And now everyone's asking, ooh, where'd you

[Narrator/Advertiser]

get your windshield wipers?

[Roland Oliphant]

Ebay has all the parts that fit my car.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

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[Venetia Rainey]

Millions of finds, each with a story. EBay, things people love.

[Sophia Yan]

For everyone, the human cost of this war is horrifying. Hundreds estimated to have died.

[Donald Trump]

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

[Advertiser]

If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on Earth, we will hunt

[Narrator/Advertiser]

you down without apology and without hesitation,

[Advertiser]

and we will kill you.

[Roland Oliphant]

We were not involved in the initial

[Paul Newki]

strikes on Iran and we will not

[Roland Oliphant]

join offensive action today.

[Sophia Yan]

President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.

[Venetia Rainey]

I'm Venetia Rainey.

[Roland Oliphant]

And I'm Roland Oliphan.

[Venetia Rainey]

And this is Iran the Latest. It's Wednesday, March 4, 2026.

[Roland Oliphant]

It is now day five of the Israeli and American attack on Iran. Today we're going to be looking at the strains that is placing on the Western alliance, in particular, whether Britain itself is. Could get dragged into the war.

[Venetia Rainey]

We'll also be speaking to British Iranian journalist Nazanin Ansari about what the mood is like on the ground ahead of Khamenei's funeral tonight. And we'll be getting a dispatch from the Turkish Iranian border and speaking to someone from the World Health Organization about how they've been preparing for this conflict. Roland, we know that Starmer initially didn't want America to use any British bases in this conflict, but then he changed course over the weekend. He gave a statement on Sunday evening. He said they could. We think that's the RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands. He said that America can now use it for defensive purposes in this conflict. Does that mean that Britain is already involved in this conflict?

[Roland Oliphant]

Well, defensive, I think you meant striking Iranian missile capability. And the basis for that is that Iran has attacked. Well, it's attacked Britain. It sent drones via Hezbollah. It sent drones at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. And of course, there are large numbers of British citizens in the Gulf countries, which are currently under attack. The public reasoning from the government is, okay, Britain and British citizens are now under attack. Therefore, it's perfectly reasonable for us to allow the Americans to use RAF bases for that specific purpose of suppressing those missiles where they're coming from.

[Venetia Rainey]

But does that make us now an actor in this conflict on the US And Israeli side, or is the British trying to frame it like that?

[Roland Oliphant]

Apparently, legally, it does. So once you've given the permission for another country to use your bases for involvement in military activity, that makes you legally complicit, legally part of it, and some people say morally part of the war as well. At the same time, you can really see from the British public statements how Starmer is still trying to keep this at arm's length to a degree. So I think the answer is, yes, of course we're involved. Hezbollah has flown drones at an RAF base. There's a lot of Brits in. In Dubai and other parts of the Gulf states. I mean, I'd hazard a guess. I don't know for sure, but I'd hazard the guess that there's more Brits than Americans there.

[Venetia Rainey]

That would make sense of why we've chartered. We're chartering, apparently, an evacuation flight out of the Gulf, I think, later today. And the Americans have not said they're starting to do that yet from Oman.

[Roland Oliphant]

I believe the Foreign Office is spending a lot of time trying to message things about that. In fact, they've kind of appealed to the press, too. I might as well say it now. The Foreign Office, if you are watching this and you are a Britain in the Gulf, the Foreign Office is really, really keen that you register your whereabouts. And they've been kind of leaning on the press saying, please, can you get that message out?

[Venetia Rainey]

Because public service journalism.

[Roland Oliphant]

Yeah, exactly. The answer is, yes, we are involved to a degree. The question is, how involved do we want to get? And that's a really tricky question for Britain, as it is for other American allies, more so for Britain, perhaps because of the special relationship. Because of Diego Garcia, which is really important in this war, is just such a useful bit of real estate where it's located for these operations. And also, you know, the strain that it's putting on the special relationship. Can we play the clip now, by the way?

[Donald Trump]

I'm not happy with the UK either. That island that you read about, the lease, okay, you made it. For whatever reason, he made a lease of the island. Somebody came and took it away from him. And it's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land. There would have been much more convenient landing there, as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.

[Roland Oliphant]

So there Winston Churchill. A critic might remind Donald Trump that it was Winston Churchill trying to persuade America to enter the war, rather than the other way around. And, well, I know. Would Trump want to be compared to fdr? I don't know. But setting that aside, you can see the pressure, the pressure building on Britain. I think there are really serious political and military calculations that underpin Britain's reluctance to get involved.

[Venetia Rainey]

We don't seem to have that much to dispatch to the region. Right. I mean, so, as you said, RAF Akateri in Cyprus was hit by a drone on Monday. The Royal Navy is now sending its warship HMS Dragon and some helicopters to bolster the British airplanes in Cyprus. But there's been a lot of talk about how it's not going to be going immediately because it's not entirely ready. Tom Cotterell, our defence editor, wrote a piece about how this is humiliating for the Royal Navy. France has dispatched the crown jewel of the French fleet, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, plus two warships and an air wing of Rafael fighter jets. What do we have to contribute?

[Roland Oliphant]

Well, we already have quite a large number of fast jets based in the Gulf, I think. I think it's 18, including several F35s, which is quite a lot for the RAF.

[Venetia Rainey]

And the typhoons have already been involved in this conflict.

[Roland Oliphant]

And you've got, in fact, a British F35, I think, claimed its first kill in combat of an Iranian drone over Jordan, I think, the other day. So the RAF are already involved in intercepting drones. That's what HMS Dragon is going to do. It's an air defense destroyer. Its job is going to be to engage missiles and drones around Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean. Two really important points here, and I think from the British point of view, this is when the decisions that British governments have made about the British armed forces for years are going to bite. And specifically, I mean, the decision that's been made by successive governments just to have a very good but very small army, navy and air force. So if you've only got one submarine afloat and you've sent it to Australia, if you've only got two type 45 destroyers that you can have operational at any one time, then you've got to make a big decision. You're keeping it around Europe in the North Atlantic to deal with whatever the Russians are going to do, or do you want to send it to the Eastern Mediterranean?

[Venetia Rainey]

What does a type 45 destroyer do? What role does that serve?

[Roland Oliphant]

So the type 45 is. I mean, they're air defence destroyers, basically. They're the Royal Navy's best things afloat. I think, setting aside the aircraft carriers and they're there to engage these kinds of threats, we've got six of them. It's fairly normal that only two of them are operational at any one time in normal circumstances. But you've got to make a choice. And in a situation where we don't know what Russia is going to do, something might happen. In Europe amid all this chaos, any British Prime Minister has to make a really hard choice about the dispersal and the deployment of your forces. I think that's a really serious question that he will be grappling with. The other one, by the way, is what can Britain bring to the table? I was just speaking to an Israeli source about this. He said, look, the military plan was always an Israeli American military plan. It envisages Israeli and American forces, and it at no point envisaged the involvement of the RAF or the Royal Saudi Air Force or any other allied air force at all. Certainly not in the offensive campaign. The attitude, at least in Israel, Absolutely. As far as they're concerned, as you'd imagine, they think it's a battle between good and evil. And we expect you to be on our side, and if you're not with us, you're against us and all of that. But operationally, no, we don't need the RAF there. Now, could the RAF get involved? I mean, at a purely technical level, yes, of course. We've operated alongside the Americans for years. Less experience operating alongside the Israelis. Presumably you could slot RAF fighters into that. Presumably, if the government was to put a political limitation on what they do, this is perfectly plausible. And it would be perfectly acceptable for Kirstan to say, okay, RAF typhoons are going to take part in F35s, whatever, take part in this offensive, but they're only going to hit Iranian missile capability because their role is to suppress Iran's ability to harm British bases and British citizens, and that would be fine. And you could imagine the Israelis and the Americans saying, well, that is quite useful because that frees up our jets to go after other targets.

[Venetia Rainey]

And do we think that request has been made?

[Roland Oliphant]

No. Okay, not at all. This is all imaginary.

[Venetia Rainey]

This is all completely hypothesis.

[Roland Oliphant]

The Americans and the Israelis are not asking for the Royal Air Force or the Royal Navy to get involved in the offensive part of this campaign. The plan they've drawn up, which they didn't, as far as we can make out, tell Britain about or any of its other allies about, is an Israeli and American plan. So they would have to adjust their plans, slot in a third Air Force to get involved. And we do have a fair number of, I think, X Forces listeners on this podcast. So tell me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that people in uniform really hate being kind of slotted in at the last minute into someone else's plan. I'm not sure anybody wants to do that. So what I'm getting at is that this is a political question, not a military question. There are two scenarios, I think, in which that calculus would change for Britain. One is if America really got cheesed off and said, you know what? If you don't get involved, I'm afraid intelligence sharing is going to have to stop. Five Eyes is over, or we're not going to service your nuclear missiles anymore or something.

[Venetia Rainey]

Withhold support for Ukraine.

[Roland Oliphant]

If the Americans were to really start twisting Britain's arm and other allies arm and making other parts of the alliance conditional involvement, then I can see a situation where the Prime Minister would have no choice but to get involved. I can't really see the Americans doing that because, as I said, I don't think they need that militarily. They don't require that. And I think we're a long way from that. The second point that could change the British calculus is if an Iranian drone or missile hits Britain in a way that we can't avoid retaliating. So I'm thinking about, for example, HMS Dragon, the Type 45 destroyer that's about to be deployed. Cyprus, if that gets hit by drones or a missile. If, like, dozens of sailors are injured or killed, or if, God forbid, the ship sinks. I think that's highly, highly unlikely. Or say an Iranian missile or drone slams into a hotel or an airport terminal in Dubai or another part of the Gulf and dozens of Britons are killed and injured, at that point, then we're involved. At that point we've been attacked and we have to do something about it. And as someone I was speaking to today said, forget what the Israelis and the Americans do, then it's our problem. Those are the scenarios in which I can see Britain changing its attitude to this. But I think at the moment the strategy is very much, yes, we're involved to a degree. Keep it at arm's length, don't get dragged into the offensive war.

[Venetia Rainey]

And politically, as you say, for now, it is just a political question. The support for getting involved in this war is not there. YouGov polling released on Monday shows the British public opposes US military action against Iran by 49% to 28%. And that divides along quite political lines, right to left, as you can imagine. The Daily Tea spoke to Emily Thornbury yesterday, chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and she said that she just doesn't think it's legal and she doesn't think the support is there. So I think that's fairly clear on where the British public are at in this debate. But I'm interested as well in how it's playing out across Europe. As we mentioned, France has been sending extra military assets to the region. And Macron has also said that he's changing its nuclear doctrine and increasing the number of nuclear warheads because, he said, our competitors have evolved, as have our partners. So building on that broader sort of defense strategy of France, Spain's prime minister has come out very much against all of this. Pedro Sanchez took to social media and said one can be against a hateful regime, as is the case with the Iranian regime, and at the same time be against an unjustified, dangerous military intervention outside of international law. Since he made that statement, a number of US Aircraft have left Spain because Madrid said those bases could not be used for attacks on Iran. So we can already see those divides cleaving Europe. The EU has really struggled, actually, to find any kind of consistent position on this. The foreign ministers of the European Union put out a statement on Sunday. They stopped short of advocating regime change in Iran. But we also had the president of the European Commission, Ursul von der Leyen, saying a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed. So the messaging on this is all over the place. And we might see, I suppose, some countries in Europe, UK and France perhaps, being dragged in, while other countries hold back.

[Roland Oliphant]

Every country will have to make its sovereign decision. Every country has different considerations. Britain, for example, has a particularly close relationship with the United States that it has to consider.

[Venetia Rainey]

But all of these countries have to consider keeping America on side. I mean, maybe Spain's slightly less so, but particularly those countries that are trying to support Ukraine right now desperately need to keep Trump on side on all of that. None of that has been resolved. Lest we forget, in the midst of all of this, Ukraine, the latest is still publishing every day about a war that is ongoing.

[Roland Oliphant]

That's a dilemma for everybody involved in this. I think one reason, of course, that the Europeans will be extremely keen to see this war stop as quickly as possible is that it is absorbing interceptor missiles at an enormous rate, interceptor missiles that will be required in Ukraine, other American munitions that perhaps the Europeans would have wanted to buy and pass on to Ukraine or buy to arm themselves. And by the way, not just in Europe, aircraft carriers have been brought from the Western Pacific. We've seen discussions of American air defense systems being withdrawn from South Korea to support this effort. So a huge amount of America's deployable force is being dragged into the Middle East. And for European governments, the pacing threat is and remains Russia. That is the thing first and foremost in their minds. And they have to think about those contingencies. So that is why they do not want to see America distracted. They don't want to see their own forces drawn into a war in the Middle east because they have another massive security issue in Europe to look at.

[Venetia Rainey]

Should we now get an Iranian view? Joining us now is Nazneen Ansari, an Iranian British journalist and managing editor of Khayyan London, a weekly Persian language online news outlet based in the UK she was born in Iran but left during the 1979 revolution and has lived abroad ever since. Nazneen, welcome to Iran. The latest. Maybe I can just start with the basic question. How do you feel about this conflict as an Iranian?

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Well, I am of course, very happy for the people who are happy, whether they are in Iran or across the world. There is a sense of jubilation that Mr. Khamenei has been killed. But as far as really having a sigh of relief, I'm still waiting. There's a lot of debris on the ground and a lot of dust in the skies and things are fast paced. Certainly Iran has not been in this position for as long as I have been alive. But there are historical currents in the air. And if hopefully Iran becomes a democratic, free country from a theocracy, that would be a historic change religiously, politically for the country itself, region and the international order.

[Venetia Rainey]

Do you have high hopes for that democracy springing out of all of this?

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Certainly. If there is one country in the Middle east that is most ready for democracy is Iran. And it is because of its people, it is because of its history and it's because of our experience. In 1978-79, Iran was the first country that really experienced Islamism. It has lived through is the people who have decided after two generations that they've had enough and that their identity is beyond religion. Their identity is national, cultural, historical, and they have connected more than Anything else? What we have seen since January 2026 is that a people finding themselves and connecting together. Certainly for me, I was taken by surprise by the millions who just poured out on the streets of Iran. There was only one name that we heard them shout, and that was Reza Shah Jawed Shah. Long live the king. And although we had seen this trend coming, you know, on the grassroots level, certainly since 2016, but never had I imagined that there would be such outpouring of support. And also people deciding, making a decision to go onto the streets despite knowing that they might be shot and killed. And in over two nights, January 8, January 9, over 30,000 youngsters, old people, women of all ages, but mostly young, were just mowed down and killed on the streets or in hospitals in the past three days, four days nowadays, we received a number of 500 dead in Iran in those two nights, January 8th and January 9th. Over 30,000 were killed by the regime, 30,000 Iranians. And that should give you a sense of perspective and contrast of what we are dealing with. This slogan that has been shouted on the streets, in the demonstrations for many years now, that they lie when they say, our enemy is the United States. Our enemy is here. And the regime really proved it, proved them right.

[Roland Oliphant]

Asnan, you mentioned Reza Pahqlavi, the crown prince there. He seems to be in a very tricky position because there are people like you who say that he has a following in Iran. Donald Trump's been quite dismissive. So he was asked about Mr. Pahlavi just yesterday. I think Mr. Trump said, I'll just read it. He said, I've said he's a nice guy, but it would seem to me that somebody from within maybe would be more appropriate. And he then added that somebody that's there that's currently popular, if there is such a person to emerge from the power vacuum. And it seems to me the Americans are. They're quite doubtful about Reza Pahqlavi's potential to actually take power or see through a monarchist restoration. What's your feeling about that?

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Well, my feeling is that when we are talking about Iran, a nation that has been alive over 2000 years, it is that nation, the people on the streets, that will choose their leader. It is not Mr. Trump or any foreign leader. And why should he? Every single country around the world will put its own national interest first. It is only the Islamic Republic in Iran that had not considered Iranian national interest first. So for Mr. Trump to come and say, maybe there's someone more appropriate, he would say it as someone sitting in Washington D.C. as a foreign leader. But it is also, I think, a way for him to say, who is the next leader? Show me your face. And that is what has happened inside, inside the regime. Certainly you had the Supreme Leader who was the head of the politics and irgc, nothing would have been done without him. And that head is cut. So you've got a headless monster with the military side, the IRGC side basically being run by those radical elements who were against any kind of accommodation with the international community or regions. They always thought that even after the, you know, the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the former head of the Quds Brigade, who was killed in Iraq under Mr. Trump's order, that they should have started a war in the Middle east then, and they didn't. But this time they are hell bent on, as Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister, has said, and they have also said it in Iran, that we will leave a scorched land. And that is their intention. But on the political side, there is a lot of rivalry. It remains to be seen if a political leader or another ayatollah emerges to be able to have the same control that Khamenei did. Let's not forget, when Khamenei emerged as supreme leader, they changed the constitution and the constitution that Khomeini, his predecessor, became the supreme leader. When the revolution succeeded in 1979, Khomeini was appointed as the supreme leader of Velloyate Fabi, which means the rule of the jurisprudent. When Khamenei took over, they changed the constitution and they gave him more powers, more autocratic powers. And in effect, it became, and it is known as Velayat e Faqiyya Motflaq, which means the ultimate rule of the jurisprudent, or the autocratic rule of the jurisprudent. Every decision had to be okayed by the supreme Leader. And indeed, scholars, Islamic scholars, jurisprudent scholars, note that even that his rule was not overland on the land of Iran, but also everything that was under. So everything that belonged to Iran was suddenly expropriated by one man, and that man is gone. Who will replace him? Will it be his son?

[Venetia Rainey]

Well, I was about to ask about that. So, yeah, Mojtab al Khamenei is reported to be alive at the time of recording and that he will be chosen as the successor. What do you think that would change if he is chosen?

[Narrator/Advertiser]

The Islamic Republic that you see, the state you see now is not the same state two, three years ago before Oct. 7, when Hamas attacked Israel and it was done by the agreement and also the understanding of the Islamic Republic and Khamenei itself, and they have repeated it in various instances inside Iran. And from 2023 onwards, the Islamic Republic has lost land, it has lost proxies, it has lost influence, and more than anything, it has lost money. But most important, important, it has lost its legitimacy and its place inside Iran. So this is a new Islamic Republic. It knows that after January 2026, when it mowed down the people, when it didn't have enough forces to attack Iranians and had to import its proxies from Iraq, Afghanistan and neighboring countries to kill them, that it has no internal support on the ground. What does it have to do after 2015 when there was the nuclear agreement with Europe and the United States and they received cash and they received a lot of money, what did they do? They transferred it all out to their proxies. It wasn't used inside Iran. Every time, budget after budget that we have seen, almost money, about 70% is going to either ideological institutions or military or unknown institutions. You know, it goes into an opaque system. And the civilians, the quality of lives have not improved. After Israel attacked Lebanon, the Islamic Republic decided to start rebuilding the lives of of its Hezbollah followers inside Lebanon. Whereas in Iran, people were opening their fridge doors and saying, we don't have any food here. So there is a reason that people were on the streets. It is for nothing. It is for 47 years of realizing that this regime is not an Iranian regime. And that's why they call it a foreigner, that their country has been invaded by a foreigner.

[Venetia Rainey]

So do you think Mojtaba will just be more of the same?

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Then all of them will be more of the same? Of course they will come. We've had reformists from Mr. Khatami in the 2000s. Well, actually it was late 1990s. Every time they have said, we are reforming, it was just for international press. It was a window dressing. Iranian experience has been different under the first reformist president that started the dialogue of civilizations that was fettered around the world. What did we see? We saw the chain murders of intellectuals, of doctors who were against the regime. Suddenly they were killed in a whole. That's why they call them the chain murders.

[Roland Oliphant]

The chain murders, just for listeners, this was a series of mysterious deaths and assassinations that later, it transpired, seemed to be systematic murders in Iran and outside of mostly intellectuals, I think, who were seen as particularly critical of the regime.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

And we had the student uprising 1999 and what you see today has its roots in the student uprising in 1999. And how they confronted the students was they burned down dormitories, they threw students down, not down the stairs, but from first floor, second floor. They were saying in 2022, even if we need to kill 1 million people, we will kill 1 million people to stay in power. Because Islamic Republic is more important. They are fatalistic. These are the monsters we're dealing with.

[Roland Oliphant]

I want to ask, we've been in touch with some people on the ground in Tehran and other parts of Iran over the past few days. And it's pretty horrific stuff. People have been killed by collateral damage. People are running around trying to find shelter. There's explosions, civilizations left, right and center. And we've now we've got a report from the US based Human rights activist news agency now. So they're putting the number killed, I think, I'm not sure if this is civilians or not, but more than 1,000 people, including children have been killed since Saturday. They say that number's preliminary and it's. The number's going to rise. It's a difficult question to ask, but I'm just wondering if you think is the price worth it or does that change your feeling about the American and Israeli intervention, the cost that's being borne by ordinary Iranians.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

I wish this hadn't, you know, this wasn't what we are going through. Who wants war? But, and I've certainly, for me, I've been one person who has been wanting to get rid of this regime without war. And it has just got worse because as I said before, they were reformists. The international community wanted to accommodate with them. They had money, they would, would buy favor, they would buy influence, whether inside Iran or outside, send their people outside to universities, think tanks. So there has been a reason that they have been there for 47 years. And every day that the Islamic Republic has been in existence, we have lost a lot of the potential, the cost effective of having the Islamic Republic. There has been humongous from a financial perspective, from a human perspective, the opportunity costs that we have had, that Iran has had because of the Islamic Republic. Now, people that I have spoken to, economists, this war is going to be very, very expensive. And of course the Iranians, and I said my figure was from yesterday and it was about civilians, maybe this 1000 also includes military, I'm not sure. As I said, there's a lot of dust in the air, but in two nights they killed over 30,000 Iranians themselves. So this is how the Iranians will look at it. And also they are aware that with these lots, their life is not going to get better, no matter how much the degree of corruption. I mean, I think Telegraph carried many reports about this, certainly other newspaper, other outlets about the millions that arrived in hundreds of millions by one person or at one point in Turkey. This is a few years ago, the Turkish authorities, and this is when President Ahmadinejad was in power. They stopped a truck, and inside it was over tens of billions of gold bars. And this was from the Central bank of Iran. It was Mr. Khamenei thought Central bank of Iran is his mother's purse or is his own purse. I mean, this is how they have wasted Iranian resources. So when these people go out on the streets, what they say is that we're not only doing it for ourselves, but we're doing it for our children and our grandchildren. You have to be Iranian and realize where you were, what kind of a country and society we had and what the Islamic Republic did to us. It decimated not only the present, but also prospects for the future prosperity of Iran. Without them, there is more chance.

[Venetia Rainey]

How do you see this playing out in the days and weeks to come? Nazneen, do you expect to see more protests in the streets, or is that just impossible? Amid the morning for Khamenei and the heavy presence of the state on the

[Narrator/Advertiser]

streets, for the moment, they have Both President Trump and the prince, Reza Pahlavi have said, stay home. I have heard from other political leaders outside that they are in touch with many of their followers who are dying to go out that saying, oh, we are 50, we're 100, we are ready to go and get them, and everybody is asking for caution, but how long will it last? I think if there's a political decision out in the west by the United States and the international community to recognize a transitional figure or a transitional government, the defections will take place at a faster pace.

[Venetia Rainey]

So do you think they should recognize Reza Pahlavi as the head of that transitional government or sort of body as

[Narrator/Advertiser]

soon as he announced it? Probably, yes. But at this juncture, it is perhaps still not the time. I mean, the Americans have said that there's another five weeks. And certainly what they have said is that this time they really want to cut the head of the snake, and they haven't done that. And they've got certain figures. I mean, we just saw Ahmadinejad walk in a cemetery. We thought he was dead. Umushtab El Khamenei was presumed dead. So there's a lot of unknowns and as long as the state repressive institutions and bodies are there, Iranians cannot go out and take over. So we will have to wait and see. It is still not over. And that's why I think I'm still not waiting to go out and jump. Because we're in the middle of the war. Let's not forget I cannot jump up and down and say, hi, a war has started. I just don't feel it in myself. But I am relieved that Khamenei has gone. We're much closer to the end of the tunnel than we were before.

[Roland Oliphant]

That was Naznin Ansari, an Iranian British journalist and the editor of Kaihan London, a UK based Persian newspaper.

[Venetia Rainey]

We're going to take a short break now. Coming up afterwards, we get a dispatch from the Turkish Iranian border where Sophia Yan speaks to refugees fleeing Iran.

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[Venetia Rainey]

Okay, I have to tell you, I was just looking on ebay, where I go for all kinds of things I love. And there it was.

[Advertiser]

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[Dr. Hanan Balki]

Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams. One of a kind. Ebay had it and now everyone's asking,

[Narrator/Advertiser]

ooh, where'd you get your windshield wipers?

[Roland Oliphant]

Ebay had has all the parts that fit my car.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

No more annoying, just beautiful.

[Venetia Rainey]

Millions of finds, each with a story. Ebay Things People Love. Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest. We'd love to hear your thoughts on this new format. You can email us on the same email address, battle lines telegraph.co.uk or leave a review now. Wherever you listen to your podcasts now,

[Roland Oliphant]

it's very difficult to report from inside Iran. But we have managed to get near to Iran. Our senior foreign correspondent, Sophia Yan, is on the Turkish Iranian border, where she's been speaking to Iranians who have managed to flee the bombing. She sent us this video dispatch.

[Sophia Yan]

I've spent the last few days in eastern Turkey along the border with Iran. Some Iranians are fleeing to Turkey, while others are going home to find their relatives. For everyone, the human cost of this war is horrifying. Hundreds estimated to have died. People are breaking down in tears when they talk about the 150 schoolchildren killed in a US Israeli attack. But many are cheering the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, killed in these ongoing strikes across the country. Khamenei's rule meant many lived in terror, but he is now dead, along with a growing list of security officials responsible for harsh crackdowns inside Iran. Some are feeling relieved and more open to sharing their views. Some Iranians are saying that they're feeling even hopeful that there might actually be change for their country. Others have said that they do want to see targeted strikes to continue aimed at killing top leadership. But again, this comes at a severe cost to civilians. This is similar to what I heard about a month ago from Iranians. In January, the regime killed thousands of people in a brutal crackdown to silence protesters who taken to the streets in late December to protest poor economic conditions. These were peaceful demonstrations, and that brutal crackdown meant that many said they could not fight back unless external help came in the form of firepower. At the time, Trump was threatening to intervene, and now he has, even saying that more strikes are coming. There's strong doubt over Trump's true intentions. One man I spoke with was returning home from Scotland to check on family in Iran. He told me that it was impossible for an outsider like Trump to know what would be best for the Iranian people going forward. Many worries hear that the conflict will tip the scales of power in favor of the US And Israel. And many fear that this will mean another endless war in the Middle East. One man I spoke with said, quote, of course I want the government to change. We've lived under the same regime for years. But I don't want America's war in my country. China's not afraid of Trump's epic fury. Instead, China is seizing the opportunity to cast itself against a bombastic Trump as the calm, credible counterpart on the world stage. The Chinese Foreign Ministry keeps saying the same things. Ongoing US Israeli strikes violate international law, that military operations must, quote, immediately cease, and that it's ready to work with partners at the UN on international fairness and justice. Obviously ironic coming from Beijing, who has an abysmal track record over international law and human rights. In the short term, Beijing is feeling the pinch. The world's largest exporter is suffering with global commercial shipping taking a hit. Rising oil prices also of concern. The longer this goes on, the more likely it becomes that China will become upset with Iran. But a rift is not a problem for Beijing. The long term view is that all this will benefit China. China is likely to race ahead with with plans to more than double its nuclear arsenal to 1,500 warheads by 2035. That's according to official U.S. estimates. And unlike the U.S. and its Western partners, China has never prioritized traditional alliances. It sees these as precipitating the downfall of America. That's what Chinese leader Xi Jinping believes he's seeing right now. Case in point, the UK wasn't initially involved in the US and Israel's operations in Iran, but quickly got dragged into the conflict. The threat is real. A drone has hit a British air base in Cyprus. The UK military, its interest assets, citizens now exposed to greater risk. And Keir Starmer facing political turmoil at home over his decisions, all for a war with no clear end date. This is exactly what Beijing would never allow because it simply does not stick its neck out for others. China supports Iran by sending things like surveillance technology, technology, nuclear fuel precursors with Russia, its spare drone parts and goods to prolong its invasion of Ukraine. This is very different than say, sending full on weapons systems. And Beijing takes this approach to always give itself plausible deniability. They can say with conviction that they aren't the ones dropping the bombs. So this is support, but only insofar as it does not bring harm to Beijing's growing global power. To China, this is all about the fall of the west and the rise of the East.

[Venetia Rainey]

That was Sophia Yan, senior foreign correspondent on the Turkish Iranian border. You can read Sofia's excellent reporting on our website and we'll also link to it in the show notes. Of course, I do think that China angle, particularly for all of our battle lines listeners now around. The latest will be particularly interesting and I really recommend her piece on why China is unfazed by Trump's epic fury. She talks about how Xi Jinping will be milking an opportunity like this to sound like a calm, credible counterpart to Trump on the world stage. Obviously, China depends on Iran for about 25% of its oil, so a prolonged conflict could start to hurt its economy.

[Roland Oliphant]

The other point I think that's really, really interesting that Sofia has made in her analysis is this Chinese view of exactly what I was talking about at the beginning of this podcast, this Chinese view that permanent alliances were always going to be the end of the west from their point of view. That was always going to be a breaking point for us. And therefore they're sitting in Beijing looking at all the tensions between America and its allies and told you so. I think that's interesting.

[Venetia Rainey]

Finally, let's hear from Dr. Hanan Balki, the World Health Organization's Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean, AKA the Middle East. Speaking to our Global Health Security editor, Paul Newki, she explained how WHO has been preparing for this conflict and even distributing medicines in case of a chemical or even nuclear attack.

[Paul Newki]

Dr. Hanan Balki, you head up the Eastern Mediterranean region of the WHO. That's 22 countries in total and many of those countries are one way or another caught up in this war. Could you tell us a little bit about how things are going from your point of view and what you're hearing from the ground?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

Of course, we are watching the news very closely and there are lots of briefings taking place, whether it's between the WHO staff or the un, what we call the country teams, between the different members and the resident coordinators. Our first rule here, and my first rule is to keep an eye with the teams and make sure that our staff is protected and that we have the duty of care for our people, ensure that they are safe and their movements are safe and they're following protocol. We had, for example, a very critical meeting that was taking place in Amman and we had several of the members who were not WHO and some were WHO stuck in certain airports. So it's affecting our work already. It's affecting our ability to progress with some of the committees and the meetings that we desperately need to do. But that's fine, we can delay some of those. We need to make sure that people are safe. That that's number one. Number two is that we need to continue to support the health authorities. And as you know, we have our country offices in all of these countries, except we have a desk office for uae. Every other country has a full fledged office and we support the health authorities to make sure that they have what they need to respond to the casualties, for example, fuel, oxygen systems, trauma supplies, pre placed packages, dialysis for the chronic patients and whatnot. In Iran itself, they have very good self sufficiency in many of those commodities. But we still remain very close as well as the ESCALATIONS now taking place also in Lebanon and some of the Gulf countries as well. We also have to continue to keep the discussions alive about maintaining our surveillance activities and early warning systems and also safeguarding medical logistics and supply chains.

[Paul Newki]

When you talk about surveillance and early warning systems, what sort of systems are you talking about?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

We're talking about the regular surveillance systems specifically for infectious diseases. Because when these casualties happens and when infrastructures are affected and patients get sick, sometimes the destruction becomes significant enough that it affects clean water supply, it destroys relevant primary healthcares and healthcare settings. So it's important that we do not forget that patients need to still be taken care of. So it's important and that we keep an eye on the disease spread. Now I'm really hoping that this is a very, very short lived situation. Otherwise we're going to be getting into some very difficult monitoring processes for these diseases.

[Paul Newki]

I believe that in advance the WHO would have distributed medicines and treatments in case there were chemical or even nuclear weapons used. Is that correct?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

Yes, absolutely. Because as you know, the IAEA is the entity responsible for detecting any possible nuclear incident. But the WHO provides guidance on public health impact, protective health measures, the medical management of exposure. If that happens, God forbid. And we do work closely with iaea, including through interagency committee on radiological and nuclear emergencies. And we also support countries in, as you said, preparing for such incidents, estimating the potential candidates in each of the countries that will require the potassium iodide, make sure that the supply chains for it are available and are distributed and the know how of how to use it exists in those countries. So the teams on the ground are familiar with this.

[Paul Newki]

Okay, so just to be clear, that a potassium iodide is distributed ahead of time in case of a nuclear attack and the effect of that medication is to prevent or at least mitigate exposure to radiation, is that correct?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

It's to mitigate the effect of the radiation on the thyroid function and whatnot, but it's not going to mitigate the burns. For example, it's not going to stop some of the other side effects, but it will mitigate the, the, the exposure to it. When it comes to the effect on

[Narrator/Advertiser]

the thyroid, is the thinking there that

[Paul Newki]

there may actually be a, a nuclear strike? Or is it more about a worry about a damaged reactor or a damaged storage system for radioactive materials?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

I think it would be best to direct that question to the IAEA because we don't have the capacity to speculate on, on such issue. It's quite complex and very technical.

[Paul Newki]

So you're Basically covering all bases with the distribution of potassium iodide.

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

The potassium iodide is a preventive measure during the radiation emergencies to specifically protect the thyroid gland from the radioactive iodine uptake. So it's not going to prevent the other injuries or effects of radiation with

[Paul Newki]

the threat of chemical attacks. What sort of medications or equipment are distributed ahead of time? There is that atropine and drugs like that or is it protective equipment?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

The chemical ones? Of course, the chemicals become even more complex because it depends on which chemical you're talking about. So again, I'm not an expert in this area. I don't have a good answer for you at the moment on this, this. But I can tell you that when the first thing that you would do in an emergency, first of all, you need emergency rooms to be prepared. And what they usually do in the very first incident is to remove the burden of the chemical on the surface of the body. So if you're talking about an exposure that is a liquid chemical, or mainly it would be a liquid or a gas, so you need to clear the body from that burden so that its absorption becomes the least possible. But then you would have to have experts in the emergency rooms to be able to identify the best ways to do that detox part and the decontamination part. And then some of them might be inhaling some of these chemicals. It might affect their lungs. Some of them might need to go to the intensive care unit. Some of these chemicals can potentially cause significant blistering or skin burn. So it becomes very, very complex. And you really need to be prepared with healthcare facilities that are capable of doing that.

[Paul Newki]

And following the use of those weapons in Syria some years ago, has the WHO distributed expertise and knowledge throughout the region in case it happens again?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

The WHO does not, does not produce academicians. What needs to happen is that the member states themselves have to build that capacity through their academic centers to help have the basics of emergency response to disasters. And many of our member states do have that capacity. And we work with them in twinning programs so that they can support each other in creating the training. So we would not be able to as who, the amount of expertise that we need is every single health discipline, if you will, whether it's an emergency, whether it's an outbreak, whether it's a communicable disease. But we work with our member states on having the capacity to respond and making sure that they have those healthcare facilities that have those expertise. And also for those who do not that they can twin with others. And the training programs take place. So we have part of it, maybe not specific for chemicals, but we have the emergency medical team, the EMT training program, and part of it is to support on how to respond to such thing. And we've trained through these programs, hundreds of healthcare providers in the different member states of the region.

[Paul Newki]

Where are you hearing that there has been most impact on the health of ordinary people? I presume that would be Iran, right?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

Those are my understandings as well. I think Iran has been the most impacted. But I think also we hope that this will end soon and that there will be no further casualties.

[Paul Newki]

And on the Gulf states, you're from Saudi originally. How are the Gulf states reacting? What are your contacts at home saying? What's the diaspora saying about the war?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

I think everybody is upset about the war, not just of what's happening today. It's about the whole situation for many, many years, I think, but currently it's very upsetting and scaring, as it would for anybody. Everybody, everybody's glued to the TVs, everybody's watching the news, and everybody's hoping for this to calm down and to stop. There's a lot of alert in the different member states of the region, in all of the neighboring member states of Iran, within the Gulf and even within Central Asia. So there's a lot of concern and we're really hoping that this can come to a quick end.

[Paul Newki]

And if it were not to come to a quick end, if it were to drag on, how long do you think medical supply lines, supply chains, can last without becoming severely interrupted?

[Dr. Hanan Balki]

I think that will depend on the abidance with the international health regulator, with the international law. If the, if the fighting parties really avoid, to the, to, to the maximum, attacking the healthcare facilities, the supply chains, the warehouses, then that would be a better scenario. Of course, the best scenario is for the, for this all to stop all at once. But I think this can turn into an utter disaster if it's not controlled and if it's not abiding by international law, humanitarian law. So let's hope that it comes to an end soon.

[Venetia Rainey]

That was Dr. Hanan Balki from the World Health Organization speaking to our Global Health Security editor, Paul Newki. Just a final note before we go. I was speaking a bit about the Iranian navy yesterday. There's an excellent bit of visual journalism up on our website now by James Rothwell and Connor Ibbots. And really breaking down how Trump almost completely obliterated Iran's navy in the space of about 48 hours. We'll link to that in the Show Notes. You should definitely check it out.

[Roland Oliphant]

On that note, just before we came on air and probably by the time you see this you won't know much more about it. That reports an Iranian warship has been sunk off Sri Lanka and the initial reports in the Sri Lankan media say it was sunk by a submarine. No particular confirmation of that that yet, but an interesting development.

[Venetia Rainey]

That's all for today's episode of Iran the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye.

[Roland Oliphant]

Goodbye

[Venetia Rainey]

Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Raney and Roland Olyphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following Iran the Latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stand up on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our Dispatchers newsletter, or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address battlelinestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the Show Notes. The producer is Peter Shevlin. The Executive producer is Louisa Wells.

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