Keir Starmer (10:13)

the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy businesses. Bills go up and down on energy because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world. It's hard to say whether it's a breach when we haven't all got access to all the details of the ceasefire. But look, let's be really clear about it. They're wrong.

Robert Campbell (10:36)

Israel is wrong to be attacking in Lebanon now.

Keir Starmer (10:40)

Yes, that shouldn't be happening. That should stop. That's my strong view. And therefore the question isn't a technical one of whether it's a breach of the agreement or not. The one is actually a matter of principle as far as I'm concerned. And in a sense my argument would be it should be included in the ceasefire and that's an important part of the overall approach.

Venetia Rainey (11:00)

That was Keir Starmer talking to ITV's Robert Peston. I think just a clear sign that patience in London is really fraying. That's all for today's updates. We're now going to take a short pause, but coming up after the break, we're going to be looking at whether this is a real ceasefire or perhaps just a tactical pause to allow the Americans to resupply.

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Venetia Rainey (12:05)

Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest. Now, there's been lots of speculation about why Iran is going for a ceasefire now, but we wanted to look at why the Americans might be going for this. I've been speaking to former British army officer Robert Campbell, who specialises in, as he puts it, anything that can fly will be bolted to a plane. He says that you have to watch what the cargo and refueling planes are doing. He also served in the IDF for several years in the 90s. Because he's a dual British Israeli national, he served in southern Lebanon. So I took the opportunity to pick his brains about the current Israeli campaign there. Here's our conversation. Robert, welcome to Iran. The latest. I wonder if you could just start by introducing yourself and talking a bit through your military background, because you've lived several different lives in two different countries. Militaries.

Robert Campbell (12:49)

Most of my career was in the British Army. I did 21 years as a British army officer and then Royal Engineers, and I did most of that in bomb disposal. But towards the end of my career, because I got injured in Afghanistan, I did an attachment to the Royal Air Force, where I was essentially a planning officer, where I was the intermediary between the ground unit on the ground and my job was to brief the air crews on what the ground unit mission was in order so they could support them. And I was facing 31 Squadron, Royal Air Force. But in a previous life, I also did three years in the Israeli Defense Forces in the 1990s because I have dual nationality with Israel.

Venetia Rainey (13:32)

And the 1990s, that was from 94 to 97, I have in my notes. And you served in Lebanon?

Robert Campbell (13:40)

That's correct. And just as a strange twist of fate, I've got quite a good knowledge of southern Lebanon because two of those three years were spent in south Lebanon. So I've got a very good personal knowledge of the geography there.

Venetia Rainey (13:56)

So I know it was a long time ago, but just because it's very much in the news at the moment, let's start with Lebanon. We've known for the last few weeks that the Israelis have been preparing to go in and establish a more permanent presence. The Lebanese call it an occupation in southern Lebanon to try and root out Hezbollah. What are your thoughts about whether that will go ahead now that we have this tentative ceasefire with Iran, but ongoing military action between the Israeli army and Hezboll in Lebanon?

Robert Campbell (14:22)

Well, from speaking to people yesterday, as far as I can tell, they don't feel this ceasefire very much because they're still under attack from Lebanon.

Venetia Rainey (14:32)

And when you say speaking to people, speaking to Israelis, ordinary Israelis, people in the Israeli army.

Robert Campbell (14:37)

That's correct. I'm speaking to people in Israel yesterday. So they don't feel pretty much there's much change in terms of the civil Defense front, firstly. Secondly, notionally, six divisions in the north or in the Golan Heights around Lebanon. And two weeks ago, the feeling I get, I was getting was this is the last time we're going to face Hezbollah. There was going to be a final showdown with Hezbollah. That was the feeling I was getting. Now that's kind of more murky. There's this kind of feeling that last week there was this. Hang on, disarming. Hezbollah's now slightly more unrealistic, which was a certain change of tone than what was the previous week. And then completely unexpected to me was Israel and Lebanon are now holding direct talks, which is. Wasn't on my bingo card at all. So there's a, a very new era of uncertainty going on with Lebanon. Lebanon. So it seems to me that there are six notional divisions hanging around the south of Lebanon at the moment, but in a kind of consolidation, wait and see, let's wait for some orders kind of thing. Now, when I say there are six divisions notionally in Lebanon, I also spoke to some people that are in those divisions, but they're actually at home. So whilst the KIT is in holding areas in Lebanon, they're not fully manned at the moment. But the policy still does seem to be that the IDF is destroying key Shia villages and towns at the moment to prevent their reoccupation by Hezbollah. Sympathetic people create a new reality south of the litany that there are no Shia majority villages or towns that are close to the Israeli northern border. And that's just the new reality they want to create.

Venetia Rainey (16:36)

And I'm interested in your view from a military perspective and as someone who was involved in the Israeli presence in Lebanon in the 90s, the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in the 90s, southern Lebanon, can that work? It didn't work in the 90s, Hezbollah continued to exist. The 2006 war didn't eradicate Hezbollah. The 2023-24 war didn't eradicate Hezbollah. Do you think this military push can work?

Robert Campbell (17:00)

It can work if the model changes. In the 1990s, we recruited a rather feckless militia called the South Lebanese Army. Now, I was part of a liaison and training team that looked after the South Lebanese army and it became rather useless and corrupt and it was infiltrated by Hezbollah. And when we collapsed in 2000, many of these people had to defect into Israel and many of them were also murdered and captured by Hezbollah. If we don't return to that model, then that's possible. Forgive me for using the word we and they interchangeably. Secondly, if the Lebanese armed forces can actually take control of their own sovereignty, then yes, it possibly could work. But that's going to take some outside intervention from the international community to give them the tools to be able to assert their sovereignty over southern Lebanon. And the other option that I think would probably need to happen in order to secure South Lebanon is the entirely useless UNIFIL will have to be disbanded. Because as far as I can tell, they have done absolutely nothing in South Lebanon in their entire existence.

Venetia Rainey (18:15)

I mean, the other problem with the South Lebanon army is that they were seen as being in cahoots with Israel. And this sort of gets to the heart of the problem in that Israel and Lebanon, they consider each other enemy states, which is why these direct talks that you mentioned earlier are such a big deal. This hardly ever happens. This is something that Lebanon has been calling for since the start of the war. And it would be a big development if, as you say, Netanyahu has given the go ahead for these talks to proceed. But the South Lebanese army was seen as collaborators, essentially like the Vichy government in France or something. That's how the Lebanese see it anyway. And I lived in Lebanon for several years and so they never had any legitimacy, whereas the Lebanese army is seen as an army, although it's very underfunded and heavily neglected. That at least represents the Lebanese country. Israel is not seen as having the Lebanese interests at heart. And so whatever they do in southern Lebanon invariably will unite the Lebanese, whether they like Hezbollah or not, against Israel. Isn't that, isn't that still a fundamental problem with their military campaign?

Robert Campbell (19:16)

I completely agree. And the other reason I was mentioning not, not starting a silly militia in Syria, South Lebanon would be because you're, you're baking in an ethnic conflict, which is the South Lebanese army were Maronite Christians, and you are baking in a conflict. You're just kicking the can down the road to, to hate each other. You're not baking in future trust and unity in a Lebanese state. Which is why if these talks could be successful, where trust could be built up on either side of the litany, where the Lebanese armed forces is on one side of the river and the IDF is on the other side of the river and Hezbollah is made to be irrelevant, and then a phased withdrawal of the idf, that is something that could, could possibly work. But this is a problem that's been going on longer than I've been alive in South Lebanon. It's not going to be solved easily.

Venetia Rainey (20:12)

Just finally on the point of Hezbollah. How can you degrade Hezbollah militarily? You know they've assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the charismatic leader. They've got a much less charismatic leader, Naim Qassem, we barely see him. His nephew and personal assistant was assassinated. Israel claims this week as part of this massive round of strikes that they launched on Wednesday. What's it going to take to militarily degrade Hezbollah outside of a political framework that you'd need with the Lebanese government?

Robert Campbell (20:39)

There's not going to be a quick fix. And I think the first, the first thing that's happened is that they're now cut off from Iran. So that's a good start. They're not going to get a resupply. So whatever they've got, they've got. They're not going to get any more. I don't know if someone in Tel Aviv's made a calculus. Let's encourage them to fire what they've got and then that's it, they've got no more. I don't know if that was part of their calculus two weeks ago and say this is the last time we're going to fight them and then they're going to be gone. I don't know if part of this discussion between Israel and Lebanon with the Lebanese armed forces is going to be, perhaps we can come to a compromise where we both crack down on Hezbollah. I don't know. Hezbollah is now woven into Lebanese fabric where they're members of parliament and they are the representatives of the Shias in, in Lebanon. So unless something can be done to break Hezbollah from the Shia community, I'm afraid I just don't have the answers. I mean, in pure military terms, we can continue killing them and destroying their equipment. That hasn't worked for the last 40 years. It's kind of just pushing the problem a bit further away.

Venetia Rainey (21:52)

Do you think Israel was pleased to hear the news of the ceasefire this week? We saw that it was followed with these, as I mentioned, massive strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday. And there seems to be a sense that this was pre planned. It was a lot of strikes in a very short period of time. What did you make of that?

Robert Campbell (22:10)

No, I don't think Israel was particularly pleased because I think there's a massive gap between the way this war has been prosecuted by Israel in the United States. I think Israel has been particularly clear and consistent in its war aims from the beginning. The United States has danced around its war aims consistently from the start. It's very, very hard to understand from one hour to the next what the Pentagon's aims and objectives are or were. And they contradict it themselves. I am not a fan of Benjamin Netanyahu by any stretch, but one thing you can say about him is very clear in what he says. And, and I think they've been rather disappointed in the way that the United States has conducted this war on the strategic level, on the tactical level. Absolutely. No question, the actual fighting men and women in the United States are outstanding. Their ability to deliver ordnance on time and on target is unmatched. But the strategic and, and operational ability to coordinate this from 28th of February has been conceptually all over the place.

Venetia Rainey (23:38)

Let's get onto that broader Iran war because one of the reasons we're chatting today is that you sent me a really intriguing email where you offered an alternative read on this ceasefire. You told me that you think it's a tactical pause and a fake ceasefire and that the American intention is to resume when they're reorganized and ready. Can you explain your thinking?

Robert Campbell (23:56)

Yes. I've got a theory based on my knowledge of how equipment works, that all this equipment has been used, has been absolutely thrashed for the last month. They're going to need a pause. And from my calculations their tanker fleet is probably now about a third of their tanker fleet is now equipment casualties. So the other two thirds of their fleet in, in the theater is now having to work really hard. Now these aircraft are now really old, so they really have no choice but to stop because they cannot sustain operations.

Venetia Rainey (24:38)

And the tanker fleet, can you just explain that for a lay man or woman?

Robert Campbell (24:42)

The Americans rely mostly on KC135 tanker fleets. These aircraft were built in the 1950s and the 1960s. And whilst they do have some more more modern KC46, the bulk of these aircraft are these older 1950s and 1960s aircraft. Now you have three levels of servicing on most aircraft. In the RAF it's called first line, second line. Third line in the United States is O level, which is organizational. That's your guys that work on the squadron. They can do low level maintenance and change various bits of kit on the aircraft. Then you've got eye level, which is intermediate. That's when it has to go back to this, to the station maintenance yard. That's more heavy duty stuff. And then you've got D level. That's when it's got to go back to the manufacturers. And because some of these aircraft are so old and fragile, they're going to have to go back to the United States to be fixed. And because the KC135s, they've lost a third in aircraft casualties Those are the ones we know of. That's not just, that's not including ones with wear and tear that are things that have just worn out whilst on operations. They've all got to go back to the United States. Apart from that, the B52s, if they need repairing, they've got to go back to the United States. They can't be fixed in the UK. F22s, they've got to go back to the United States. F18s, United States, the KC46, United States, C17s and C5s, they can't be repaired in Europe, they have to go back to the us. So because these aircraft, and they also have scheduled maintenance that when you reach a certain number of hours, they have to go through to deep maintenance. So my theory is they've all been pushed to their limits and they now have reached the red line where they've got to be fixed or replaced. So park the aircraft to one side, those aircraft can't fly anymore over Iran. They've now got to go back, they've got to have a deep maintenance. Secondly, the ships, the ships have now been running out of equipment, running out of fuel and they've all got to be resupplied. The Lincoln's in the Arabian Sea and because he's been flying on combat operations, it's been having to do significant sea maneuvers which, which turns out more fuel. It's now got a resupply. The Gerrard Ford had to put in at Croatia because it had a fire. It left on 2 April, but because it was in Croatia, it then resupplied and it's been refueled. But because it was also in port, it could resupply with new aircraft which have now got their clocks reset on their flying hours and they could resupply personnel. The George Bush left Virginia on March 31st and then we're coming up with 44 brand new combat aircraft, five electronic warfare F18 variants and four airborne early warning aircraft, and a load of multiple helicopters and tilt rotor aircraft, all of which will again start with brand new maintenance scheduled clocks. So to me this seems like a nice opportunity for everybody to resupply themselves and take a pause, look at the bda, the bomb damage assessment in Iran and see what's been damaged, what hasn't. Whilst all of the bases in the Middle east restock on munitions, restock on fuel and all the aircraft get switched out. For aircraft that now have their flying hours reset and the maintenance done in order continue high intensity operations, it's a

Venetia Rainey (28:24)

really Interesting point, because we think about wars, particularly wars waged by America, the biggest military in the world, as being able to be sort of perpetually waged. But of course, America, and I was speaking to two Gulf analysts yesterday who are making clear that America has not been able to operate out of the GCC countries where they have a lot of their bases they vacated at the beginning of this war. So they've been operating off ship assets, I guess, and that, that makes it very difficult to, as you say, resupply, restock, conduct maintenance. So I think that's quite an interesting theory and probably something that certainly I hadn't thought about. And then your other point about leaving Iran and allowing some bomb damage assessment to be conducted. But in the coming weeks we might get more intelligence in terms of them going to repair things and then you might be able to get a better understanding of how much damage has actually been done. Because everything's sort of undercover right now. I guess that's also part of this idea of sort of sit back and wait and just a look at where

Robert Campbell (29:20)

the dust settles with bomb damage assessment. You can, you can look at your big crater, you can look at your dam, your damage aircraft, you can look at your building you've destroyed, and then you can look at what they do about it and you can see if it was a priority for them or not. And if they don't care, you can possibly deduce that it probably wasn't a priority for them.

Venetia Rainey (29:43)

Just finally, what kind of signs would you be watching for to suggest that the ceasefire does become permanent? For example, if the Lincoln turns around, is that a sure sign that this war is over?

Robert Campbell (29:55)

No, I would be ignoring the snazzy stealth jets and the B2s and things like that. I would be watching the very, very boring stuff like C17s, the C5s and the refuelers. If they keep moving around in large numbers across the Atlantic, that tells me that, that this is going to continue because you're going to need them to sustain operations.

Venetia Rainey (30:22)

And what are the C17s? Just explain those types of planes.

Robert Campbell (30:25)

So C17s are the large cargo aircraft, the C5 is the super large cargo aircraft, and the KC135s again, are the air to air refueling aircraft. If those things keep moving around, those are, are the indicators that this is going to continue. Our mutual friend introduced us, he asked me two weeks before this happened, he asked me my opinion if this was happening, if this was really going to happen. And I said, you don't move that many tankers around for fun. You can move a couple of B2 bombers around to make a statement or a gesture. That's fine. You can do that quite a lot and it makes, you know, good TV. If you move 30 tankers, that means you're serious. So my view would be to keep an eye on the transports, the logistics and the really boring stuff. The American bases that got hit in terms of all their accommodation. Really boring stuff. Like, do you know what Hesco Bastion is? It's the really boring baskets that you fill with sand in order to make fortifications. We used it all in Afghanistan and things like that. If you see them starting to build that in Aladdin Air Base everywhere, the really dull stuff, that's the real indicators of intent.

Venetia Rainey (31:56)

They've been trying to procure those, haven't they? I was reading about that. They're trying to fortify those bases a bit more. Yeah.

Robert Campbell (32:01)

Yes. The really low tech stuff that you need to survive, which apparently nobody thought of before this war, good combat engineer stuff, that's the low tech combat indicator. This is going to carry on. I hope I'm wrong, but this delt, this data just tells me this could just be a pause in hostilities. So my tea leaves are, where are the tankers going? Where are the heavy lifts going? Where's the fortifications going? Where's the fuel going? And like I said, where are the ships going?

Venetia Rainey (32:40)

That was Robert Campbell, a retired British army officer. That's all for today's episode of around the Latest. We'll be back again on Monday. Until then, have a good weekend. Goodbye. Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following Iran the Latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our Dispatchers newsletter or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address, battle lineselegraph.co.uk UK or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes. The producer is Max Bauer. The executive producer is Louisa Wells.

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