Netanyahu says war not over as US and Iran veto rival peace proposals

Summary

Iran: The Latest

Episode: Netanyahu Says War Not Over as US and Iran Veto Rival Peace Proposals
Date: May 11, 2026
Hosts: Roland Oliphant, David Blair, Memphis Barker (The Telegraph)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the stalemate following the failed US and Iranian rival peace proposals amid the ongoing US–Iran conflict. The status of the ceasefire, Netanyahu’s comments, the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, and upcoming global diplomacy—especially the Trump-Xi summit—are all explored. Drawing on insights from The Telegraph’s foreign correspondents, the discussion focuses on the immediate impasse and its regional and global repercussions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Failed Peace Negotiations and the Stalemate

[01:41-09:46]

• The US floated a 14-point peace plan focused on ending fighting, extending the Gulf ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and demanding Iranian nuclear concessions (notably the handover of highly enriched uranium and curbing enrichment).
• Iran countered with a proposal refusing to dismantle enrichment sites, offering only a temporary suspension, and suggesting the partial transfer of uranium to a third country with guarantees of return if talks failed.
• Iran also demanded reparations, sovereignty over Hormuz, end to US naval blockades, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen assets, and cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
• President Trump called Iran’s proposal "totally unacceptable" and rejected it on Truth Social.
• David Blair: "The more I think about it, the more I think his only way out is to go back to war, but this time with the very specific objective of unblocking the strait. Full stop." ([01:41])

Memorable Quote:

• Benjamin Netanyahu: "There's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There's still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that Iran supports..." ([07:27])

2. Netanyahu: War Not Over

[07:27-08:37]

• Netanyahu, on US media, stressed that with proxies active and nuclear capabilities intact, the war is not truly over.
• He signaled willingness to re-engage militarily alongside the US if necessary.
• Suggests the possibility of physically removing uranium from Iran with international military cooperation.

Memorable Exchange:

• David Blair: "How do you envision the highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran?"
  Netanyahu: "You go in and you take it out... If you have an agreement and you go in and you take it out, why not? That's the best way." ([08:06])

3. The Three (or Four?) Options Facing the US

[09:46-12:45]

David Blair outlines Trump's choices:

• Option 1: Settle with Iran reopening Hormuz and the US lifting the blockade, but leave nuclear issues unresolved.
• Option 2: Maintain the blockade and hope pressure forces Iranian concessions, risking economic collapse.
• Option 3: Resume war to impose terms militarily.
• "All of them are terrible options... I struggle to see how on earth he can get himself out of it." ([12:00])
• No credible fourth option present; even with diplomatic mediation (notably by Pakistan), each party remains entrenched.

4. Impact of the Stalemate

[12:45-16:49]

• Trump is frustrated and reportedly "bored" with the war, yet stuck with no diplomatic or military success.
• The world economy is at risk—continued closure of Hormuz could push Europe and Asia to crisis if not resolved by June.
• Iran’s government believes it can endure for months longer than the world economy can.

Quote:

• David Blair: "The economy's a ruin, it's a wreck... They think they can stick this out for longer than the world economy." ([14:50])

• CIA assessment: Iranian regime could survive 3–4 more months of blockade, but global markets could collapse sooner.

5. Project Freedom: Reopening the Strait

[17:44-19:55]

• Previous US military action (Project Freedom) momentarily reopened Hormuz but was halted for diplomatic efforts via Pakistan.
• Uncertainty about resuming Project Freedom; military reopening remains an option under "Option 3."

6. Pakistan's Diplomatic Mediation

[19:55-24:28]

• Islamabad is key mediator due to longstanding ties with both Washington and Tehran.
• Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s top military leader, is praised for his intermediary role.
• Pakistan's own interests: severe economic consequences from the Hormuz closure, and hopes for gas pipeline development with Iran.
• Pakistan seen, overall, as a relatively honest broker with significant domestic and regional stakes.

Quote:

• Memphis Barker: "Pakistan isn't just doing this altruistically. It's one of those countries... worst affected by a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz." ([20:23])

7. Looking Ahead: Trump-Xi Beijing Summit

[24:28-31:15]

• The summit is high-stakes but expectations are for a cautious approach—no grand bargains over Taiwan, focus on incremental trade wins, and possibly seeking Chinese diplomatic leverage with Iran.
• Speculation that China will ask for a shift in US declaratory language around Taiwan, aiming for even rhetorical victories.
• Trump administration seeks a non-dramatic summit outcome, not wanting to appear to trade away strategic interests.

Quotes:

• Memphis Barker: "The latest from inside Washington is that... Taipei is not going to be on the menu as they meet for dinner." ([27:18])
• David Blair: "[China will] expect plenty of goodwill, particularly from their neighbors in Asia who are the most exposed to shipments through the Strait." ([33:17])

8. China’s Quiet Role in World Oil Markets

[32:17-34:37]

• China has cut oil imports by about 3 million barrels/day, cushioning oil price shocks for the global economy—though not publicly coordinated with the US.
• This move strengthens China's diplomatic image regionally, contrasting with the US as an "instigator" of instability.

9. US Internal Divisions on China & Iran Policy

[34:47-35:50]

• Divisions within the US administration: hawks advocate a tough stance on China, resulting in recent personnel shifts.
• Impacts both Iran strategy (tougher approach) and expectations from the Beijing summit.

10. Closing Thoughts

[35:53-36:09]

• David Blair: "Trump would love to just declare victory and walk away, but he can't. ...his only way out... is to take military action to reopen the Strait and then declare victory and walk away."
• No easy exit for the US; the global community is bracing for further instability, pending the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting.

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• David Blair on War as Last Resort: "The more I think about it, the more I think his only way out is to go back to war, but this time with the very specific objective of unblocking the strait. Full stop." ([01:41], [35:53])
• Benjamin Netanyahu: "Both the United States and Israel, we both agree, President Trump and I, that if necessary, we can re engage them militarily. If it's necessary." ([07:27])
• David Blair: "All of them are terrible options. And he has got himself into this fix and I struggle to see how on earth he can get himself out of it." ([12:00])
• Memphis Barker: "I think that Pakistan has often in the past acted as a kind of intermediary between Washington and the Islamic Republic. ...That role has really been supercharged, obviously, under Field Marshal Asim Munir..." ([20:23])
• David Blair: "Language is so important when it comes to the Taiwan situation. One word really can make a difference." ([29:43])
• David Blair: "Beijing are being helpful when it comes to stabilizing the world economy in that respect. However, in return for that, they will expect plenty of goodwill..." ([33:17])

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Important Segment Timestamps

• US and Iranian Peace Proposals Breakdown: [01:41-09:46]
• Netanyahu’s CBS Interview Highlights: [07:27-08:37]
• Trump’s Three Options & Dilemma: [09:46-12:45]
• Impact on Economy and Iran’s Calculations: [12:45-16:49]
• Project Freedom & US Military Calculations: [17:44-19:55]
• Pakistan’s Role as Mediator: [19:55-24:28]
• Trump’s Objectives for Beijing Summit: [24:28-27:18]
• Chinese Leverage & Regional Diplomacy: [32:17-34:37]
• Closing Analysis on Options Ahead: [35:53-36:09]

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Tone

Throughout, the podcast retains The Telegraph’s signature mix of informed analysis, sober realism, and frank discussion of global power politics. Guests and hosts engage with one another using clear, direct language, sometimes with wry humor (“Answers on a postcard, please.” [11:59]), but always with the undercurrent of deep concern for escalating risks and limited diplomatic bandwidth.

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This episode is essential listening for anyone wanting to understand the evolving US–Iran confrontation, the obstacles to diplomatic resolution, and the wider geopolitical ripple effects ahead of a decisive week for global security.

Transcript

[Memphis Barker]

The telegraph.

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[David Blair]

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[Memphis Barker]

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[David Blair]

The more I think about it, the more I think his only way out is to go back to war, but this time with the very specific objective of unblocking the strait. Full stop.

[Roland Oliphant]

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

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Today, President Trump says Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.

[Roland Oliphant]

The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the street of Hormuz.

[David Blair]

Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?

[Roland Oliphant]

Come on. I'm Roland Oliphant and this is Iran. The Latest. It's Monday the 11th of May, 2026. 73 days, if I'm counting correctly, since the war began. 34 days since the ceasefire came into force. Despite that little wobble, last week still seems to be holding. More or less. At least in the Gulf, not so much in Lebanon. But we'll get to that today. The thing that is going to dominate this week is Coming on Wednesday and Thursday, which is when Donald Trump flies to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping. We'll be talking more about that later in the podcast. But first of all, a few of the headlines around Iran, the conflict, the ceasefire. The first thing you need to know today is that the latest attempt to broker a way out of the funny old frozen conflict that I suppose it's becoming has failed. So President Donald Trump swiftly rejected Iran's response to a US Peace proposal which sent oil prices higher when markets opened on Monday morning amid concerns a 10 week conflict will drag on. Some of us might say it's already dragging quite a bit. So at the end of last week, listeners will remember if you were listening, the US Floated an offer in the hopes of reopening negotiations. Iran on Sunday then released a counteroffer. And that is what Donald Trump has rejected. I don't like it. Totally unacceptable, he wrote on Truth Social. Iran in response, said on Monday that it believed its proposal was actually generous and responsible. What do we know? I'll let you be the judge. The US 14 point proposal was basically an end to fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program, intended as a shorter term agreement before the final details were worked out over 30 days. And it was understood, because this is mostly behind closed doors, we don't have the actual documents laid out in front of us, but it was understood to have focused on extending the ceasefire, the truce in the Gulf, with both sides reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran making advanced commitments. This is really where things seem to have fallen apart. Hence I'm emphasizing it advanced commitments on Iran curbing its nuclear program and handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The Iranian counteroffer. The big problem seems to be they refused to dismantle their nuclear facilities. They said they would suspend uranium enrichment, but for a shorter period than the 20 years the US was proposing. It said it might dilute some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but it wanted to transfer the rest to a third country if it received guarantees that the uranium would be returned if negotiations failed or Washington broke its word. That really seems to be, as far as I can read out, the thing that really upset Mr. Trump. But there's more. They also wanted war damage reparations from the Americans and from Israel. They emphasized Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. They called on the US to end the naval blockade, to guarantee no further attacks, to lift sanctions, to end their ban on Iranian oil. That's all according to state television and the Tasnim Semi official Tasman news agency. And also this is from Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismay Baghairi speaking on Monday. They wanted us to release frozen Iranian assets. Our demand is legitimate, demanding an end to the war, lifting the US blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to US Pressure, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region. And Lebanon and other demands of Iran again, Lebanon. They want the Israelis to stop fighting in Lebanon. That doesn't seem like it's going to happen very soon, although I'm going to get to that. There is still meant to be a ceasefire in place there. All of this, said Baghair, is a generous and responsible offer for regional security. So those are the two offers there, the American and the Iranian. Still a big gap mostly over that nuclear issue. It comes out as a second thing. I want to highlight Iran's crackdown on suspected spies. It says it has executed a man accused of spying for the CIA and Mossad. Irfan Shakuzada, 29, was hanged after being accused of espionage in collaboration with the US And Israel. According to Iranian state media. He was a student at Iran's University of Science and Technology in Tehran. Arrested in February 2025 on charges of working with hostile states, he was reportedly subjected to nine months of severe physical and psychological torture in solitary confinement in order to extract forced confessions, according to Hengor Human rights organization based in Norway. Shakuzada himself always maintained he was arrested, fabricated charges. That's inside Iran and then shifting over to the Levant. That other part of this equation. While the Iranians and the Americans have been passing bits of paper back and forth and disagreeing with one another, Benjamin Netanyahu went on American television over the weekend and he told CBS 60 Minutes quite bluntly that the war is not over. And here's what he said.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

There's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There's still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that Iran supports. There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. Now, we've degraded a lot of it, but all of that is still there and there's work to be done. Both the United States and Israel, we both agree, President Trump and I, that if necessary, we can re engage them militarily. If it's necessary.

[David Blair]

If it's necessary. How do you envision the highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran?

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

You go in and you take it

[David Blair]

out with what Special forces from Israel Special forces from the United States working in tandem under international supervision.

[Roland Oliphant]

How?

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Well, I'm not going to talk about military means, but what President Trump has said to me, I want to go in there. I mean, he said that publicly, he said it, and I think he's right. He's very committed to this, and I think it can be done physically. That's not the problem. If you have an agreement and you go in and you take it out, why not? That's the best way.

[Roland Oliphant]

So that's fueling speculation that actually, with this rejection of the Iranian counter prose from Donald Trump, that Israel and America may be gearing up for a second round of active warfare. And then again, talking about Lebanon. Israel's military said on Monday one of its soldiers had died in fighting near the border with Lebanon, bringing its losses to 18 personnel since the latest war with Hezbollah began in early March. This was Sergeant Major Alexander Glovanyov. He was 47. The military says he fell during combat near the Israel Lebanon border. No more specifics about the location. And he was killed on Sunday. And that goes to underscore that Israel and Hezbollah have basically continued fighting in south Lebanon, despite the fact there is a ceasefire meant to be in place there since April 17th. So that brings us more or less up to date with the latest news, I'm very pleased to say. We're joined in the studio today by David Blair, Telegraph chief foreign affairs commentator and our senior foreign correspondent, Memphis Barker. David, you wrote last week that Donald Trump had three unpalatable choices. Has anything changed?

[David Blair]

No, he's still got them. And the diplomacy mediated by Pakistan and maybe one or two others, seems to have got absolutely nowhere. The situation you just described, whereby the Americans submit a 14 point peace plan, which Iran is obviously not going to accept, to be followed by Iran submitting a counter proposal which America is obviously not going to accept, means that the diplomacy really hasn't changed anything, at least on the face of it. So that leaves Trump with three options. The first is he could hugely scale down his ambitions for a settlement and just do a quick deal whereby Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz in return for America lifting its blockade of Iranian ports and everything else, the nuclear issue and all the rest of it is just kicked into the long grass. The problem there is that he would be accepting a situation where there were no constraints on Iran ability to rebuild its nuclear program and it would retain its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, and he would have a big problem on his hands, not least from Benjamin Netanyahu who would almost certainly oppose a settlement along those lines. His second option is the situation that prevails now, where America is blockading Iranian ports. Trump could, in theory maintain that blockade in the hope that Iran might be more flexible and might finally accept his terms. The problem is, if that's going to happen, it's going to take months. And in the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed and the world economy will fall off a cliff. The third option is he could just go back to war and just try and impose his will on the Iranian regime by military means. He could try that. The problem is, in the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed and the world economy will go off a cliff. And 40 odd days of bombing didn't soften up Iran sufficiently to accept American terms before. It's by no means obvious that it would succeed now. So those are his three options. If there are any others that I haven't thought of, I'll be delighted to hear them.

[Roland Oliphant]

Answers on a postcard, please.

[David Blair]

Answers on a postcard. And all of them are terrible options. And he has got himself into this fix and I struggle to see how on earth he can get himself out of it.

[Memphis Barker]

Memphis, I definitely don't see like he's got a way out that's gonna be satisfying without making massive concessions. And he just doesn't seem to be any further down that path, particularly at the moment. You're still getting the same outrage replies, the same misreading of the Iranian regime that we saw weeks and months ago. And his advisors, you know, reportedly say he's just bored of the war, wants it to end, but completely stuck as David outlines.

[Roland Oliphant]

Are you able to spot a fourth option that David hasn't spotted in the

[Memphis Barker]

kind of Donald Trump's fantasy land? There might be a fourth one, but I don't think any real prospect of any other way out.

[Roland Oliphant]

I think you've been talking to Conor Stringer, our man in Washington, talking to people as close to the administration as possible. What's our sense of the sentiment in Washington?

[Memphis Barker]

The sentiment in Washington, again partly hearing via Connor, but also other reports in the American media, is that Trump is growing tired of the war. He's growing bored of the war. He would like to move on to other priorities. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to bring that about through either diplomatic or military means. And so you remain stuck in this quagmire. I mean, there was quite a bit of reporting that the president was really hoping to kind of wrap something up so he could go to China. And not have this huge baggage of an unfinished war which is pitching the global economy towards a crisis. Certainly puts him on the back foot in any negotiations with the Chinese president. Yet that is the situation we are facing. I mean, I think by the time he lands on for the meetings on Thursday, that war will very much be ongoing, and Trump will be, as we understand, seeking some kind of support from China in bringing the war to an acceptable close. Now, how far China will go to help Donald Trump out, that's a complete other question, and my general reading is not very far at all.

[Roland Oliphant]

David, what do we make of the Iranians? They seem to be sticking to their guns. They don't seem to be that desperate to make a deal at the moment, or at least they're trying to make it appear that way.

[David Blair]

I think it's pretty clear they're not desperate to make a deal at the moment, hence their intransigence. And I would imagine that their calculation is they can withstand the pressure. They're currently under the blockade, et cetera, for a lot longer than the world economy can withstand. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, their great bargaining counter, the ability to hold the world economy hostage, is paying off for them.

[Roland Oliphant]

We had Akhtar in last week or something. It's a huge inflation, the kind of shops emptying in Tehran, and they're not being able to get their oil out. They're hurting massively. Surely they must be hurting. You're saying they are hurting, but they don't.

[David Blair]

You bet they are. You bet they certainly are. I mean, the economy's a ruin, it's a wreck, but it has been for quite some time. They think that they can stick this out for longer than the world economy can stick out. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remembering, of course, that they had imposed the closure on the strait for several weeks before Donald Trump got round to actually blockading Iranian ports. And during those several weeks, they were allowing their own tankers out of the strait carrying something like 1.8 million barrels of their oil exports every day, which is actually a higher rate, more oil than they were able to export last year under no such constraints. You know, they've got a head start when it comes to this bout of competitive strangulation. You know, they've been strangling the Strait for longer than Donald Trump has been strangling their ports. And the result is that the world economy is reaching crunch point now. And the general thinking is that if the closure is maintained into June, then there really will be a colossal crisis. The crunch really will arrive for Europe as well as for Asia. And that Donald Trump will have to agree some sort of settlement before then. That's what the Iranians will believe.

[Roland Oliphant]

That's what they believe.

[David Blair]

Meanwhile, the Iranians, you will have seen there was a CIA assessment that was leaked to the Washington Post last week where the CIA assessed that the regime could survive for another three to four

[Roland Oliphant]

months are under blockade.

[David Blair]

Under blockade. So you've got the world economy probably ticking down in its last four weeks and you've got Iran three to four months away from a similar crisis.

[Roland Oliphant]

Hence the we all become very poor in June, in one month. And June, July, August. So August, September, maybe Iran might crack,

[David Blair]

but the world economy will crack before then.

[Roland Oliphant]

We're going to take a short break now. When we come back, can Xi Jinping help Donald Trump bring the war with Iran to a satisfactory conclusion? And if he can, would he want to?

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[Roland Oliphant]

Welcome back. You're listening to Iran the latest with me, Roland Oliphant. I'm in the studio with Telegraph chief foreign commentator David Blair and our senior foreign correspondent, Memphis Barker. So what happened to Project Freedom? Project Freedom is this plan to reopen the strait, which only lasts two days. But we had a former British admiral on last week, James Parkin, who had unblocked it last time. The Iranians tried to close it in 2019 by boarding tankers. And he said he was very clear with us. He said, look, if I was a US Admiral and Donald Trump gave me the order, I could do it. I could reopen that strait. It's not a military problem. What the hell happened to that?

[David Blair]

I mean, well, it is an extraordinary thing. Project Freedom is announced. Two tankers are escorted or guided safely through the strait, whereupon Donald Trump suspends Project freedom after merely 48 hours or so in order to, as he put it, respond to a Pakistani request to help oil the wheels of diplomacy with Iran. So he made the gesture. Now Iran has thrown it all back in his face by rejecting or submitting a counter proposal to him that America finds unacceptable. So will he now restore Project Freedom there's no hint of that yet, but that's one option for him. I suppose he could restore Project Freedom.

[Roland Oliphant]

I'm putting that on the list of your things he could do.

[David Blair]

Yes.

[Roland Oliphant]

I suppose that goes with your military action thing.

[David Blair]

Yes, yes. I think that falls under option three because it's. Because to restore Project Freedom will require military action of some kind. Your interview with the admiral was fascinating because it shows that, given if he's willing to take the risk, Trump could use force to reopen the strait. So the more I think about it, the more I think his only way out is a variant of my option three, which is to go back to war, but this time with the very specific objective of unblocking the strait, full stop. Unblock the strait, deprive Iran of its bargaining power through the use of force, and then turn the tables on Iran and put the pressure on them. Anything else? I'd be delighted to entertain it, but I can't think of anything at the moment.

[Roland Oliphant]

Mephis, before we get onto the Chinese question, I'm really interested in your reporting about Pakistan's role in all of this, because, of course, you used to report there for years, you know the place very well, and you wrote a fascinating piece about how Pakistan emerged as an intermediary, what they're trying to achieve, and what they get out of it. How is it that Islamabad has become the place for the diplomacy, and how is it that there's a Pakistani field marshal who may or may not be brokering peace?

[Memphis Barker]

It's a very interesting question. I mean, I think that Pakistan has often in the past acted as a kind of intermediary between Washington and the Islamic Republic. I mean, even in Pakistan's Washington Embassy, there's an Iranian interest section which hosts Iranian diplomats and has done for decades. So there's not a complete breakdown of communications between Washington and Tehran. That role has really been supercharged, obviously, under Field Marshal Asim Munir, who, as we hear from multiple accounts, is acting as the kind of the best go between, as it were, between the Iranians and Donald Trump. It's always been a kind of slightly testy but not completely impossible relationship between the Pakistanis and the Iranians. You've had the occasional flare up on the contested border around Balochistan, where both sides accused the other of hosting militant groups. But overall, it's been a kind of warm, well, waryish, but sort of manageable relationship between the two. Now, Pakistan isn't just doing this altruistically. It's one of those countries that we were Worst affected by a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. They're already ordering public servants to work four day weeks. You have schools closing down. You know, the economy is already in a dire place before this began. So it's particularly exposed to the current conflict. It also has, and as you've seen from within Pakistan, there's an immense kind of groundswell of pride that you are, you know, being seen as a responsible international actor. People are praising Pakistan's role as a peacemaker on the world's stage. It's quite a flip in the reputation of the nation, which obviously in the news over the decades has historically come up more with regards to supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and all that kind of thing which people like Field Marshal Asim Munya, that would have been very much more the kettle of fish for the Pakistani army. Now it is him who has kind of risen into this role, a very visible role as peacemaker. And that's quite a rare thing for someone in that position to be taking on both the visible role as peacemaker, but also the responsibility as the kind of very, you know, the clear crux point of what the Pakistani state wants and the kind of vessel for the hopes of that large nation. I think he has some specific things he would like as well. There's potentially new trade routes to be opened with Iran. Pakistan's already been accused in some quarters of double dealing by opening some land routes for goods to get from China to Iran. In reality, that's for a relatively small beer and I'm sure that Washington wouldn't be too upset by it. But the other thing that's been suggested within kind of some political circles in Islamabad is that there's a long stalled Iran Pakistan gas pipeline. And now if that was to be approved, if the US was to kind of waive sanctions and let that happen as a result of Pakistan's goods responsible and proactive of work on the international stage. That would be a massive win for Pakistan, for the Pakistani public. Long way to go before you get there though.

[Roland Oliphant]

Of course they've got a lot to gain. Are they honest brokers?

[Memphis Barker]

I mean, at this point I would believe so. I mean, I think the kind of, the reaction you've seen among some hawks in kind of Washington and in India, that this is kind of Pakistan is actually helping Iran circumvent the US blockade. I think it's an exaggeration. I really think that most of all they're taking advantage of their position and able to speak to the IIGC in ways that most Other nations are not.

[Roland Oliphant]

You've got to be trusted by both sides, right?

[Memphis Barker]

Well, he's done very field Marshall academia has done a commendable job, I suppose, of getting into the White House, the right wife circles in the White House, very careful cultivation of that reputation. He's often over in Washington, they discuss things that Trump likes to hear about cryptocurrency, rare earth, critical minerals. All these kind of deals have been proposed by the field marshal, by his team in the run up to this moment. So the Trump administration, as we famously says, he's often referring to and calls him my favorite field marshal because of that work in cultivating the relationship from Islamabad.

[Roland Oliphant]

A fascinating insight there, Memphis, into that extra actor there we often don't hear that much about. Emerging is so much more important. Can we talk about China? This is the thing that's going to dominate the news this week. Essentially, it's going to dominate the Iran conflict, and I'll talk about that. But it's also going to dominate all kinds of discussions about Taiwan, about everything else. This is the meeting, the summit meeting between the two most powerful people in the world, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. I know you've been working on this because I walked across the newsroom to ask you what you were doing earlier before we came in. So I know you're looking at this question. So can you just what is it you think Donald Trump is going to be taking to Beijing on his kind of wish list? What's his list of things he wants to get done? What do you think Xi Jinping is going to be asking for?

[Memphis Barker]

I think that there has been a fair amount of speculation in the run up to the summit, certainly fears within Taiwan that Taiwan would somehow be on the table in these discussions between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Actually, you had on the table in

[Roland Oliphant]

a kind of in a grand so

[Memphis Barker]

that Washington would be prepared to discuss or potentially even sell out Taiwan in some fashion in order to get Xi Jinping to do a number of things. But that would include helping him bring a satisfying end to the war in Iran. So that has certainly been in the rumor mill. I mean, you had Francois Wu, the deputy foreign minister in Taipei, saying he was concerned that Taiwan would be on the table. Thanks to very good work of our chief Washington correspondent Conor Stringer. The Trump administration is really not going to go in there and discuss any kind of grand bargain over Taiwan's status. It's too much, too controversial at this particular point in time. He's already on the back foot, obviously, in the middle East. And to go into a summit in Beijing and be seen to be trading over the status of Taiwan would be far too much to handle this particular point in time. We are hearing that broadly that the White House wants to get out of this with maybe a few trade deals on beef, on soybeans, potentially for Boeing aircraft, and be able to waive those deals back home. But really to keep things pretty cool and calm and get out there kind of unscathed. You obviously you've got billowing crises in the Middle east and they want to, to move on from this, keep things cool ahead of the midterm elections and broadly avoid being perceived to be selling

[Roland Oliphant]

out what could be. It's going to dominate our news coverage and we're going to be talking about Donald Trump is meeting Xi Jinping, and these are the two most powerful people in the world and anything could happen. And it's hugely high stakes. And in reality, Washington just wants to get through this without anything going wrong.

[Memphis Barker]

That's pretty much the kind of thing you're hearing. You're hearing maybe you hear things like border board of trade or board of investment. That's the kind of concrete achievements they would like to come home with. That would be to kind of regulate how Chinese companies can invest in America and vice versa without compromising national security. It's all kind of fairly technocratic, fairly low stakes. We are hearing that kind of Taipei is concerned at this particular point in time. The latest from inside Washington is that that really is very far from being or Taipei is not going to be on the menu as they meet for dinner.

[Roland Oliphant]

Okay. And do we have any view on what Xi Jinping will be looking for from Donald Trump? Maybe he wants a grand bargain of some sort.

[Memphis Barker]

I'm sure that is softly, softly part of the Chinese president's calculations. I mean, ahead of the summit, again, you've had some reporting that what Beijing would really like to see is a shift in the kind of US Declaratory language around Taiwan. So at the moment, the US Again, relatively technical, but all this is important and highly important within the kind of rhetorically framed statecraft of China. They want to to the US to change its language from we do not support Taiwan becoming an independent nation, throwing off the yoke of China entirely to the US Actively opposes Taiwanese independence. Now, that is something that would be taken as a really significant gain within Beijing, again eroding that path towards independence that some in Taiwan still seek to pursue. And of course, the White House is not famed for really setting too much store in what this word means and what that word means. So there was a kind of view that maybe Trump would go along with a change in the declaratory language because he could say it one day, take it back the next, because it's only words. This does not set as much stock in kind of the classic forms of statecraft that David would have been intimately involved with and presumably highly concerned by if those kind of changes were to be made by any administration that you were part of. But again, the White House, you know, precedent shattering. You can say one thing one day and the next. I think that's part of the concern within Beijing as well, is that even if Trump was to make a change like that, how do you guarantee he really means anything by the next month? He could sell them $14 billion worth of arms. It's not gonna. So I think they wouldn't maybe give too many concessions to Donald Trump even to get that change, because how do you know he's gonna not change his mind again the next month?

[Roland Oliphant]

Very interesting, David.

[David Blair]

Language is so important when it comes to the Taiwan situation. One word really can make a difference. Memphis has cited a couple of examples. Another one is suppose China were to persuade Trump to use the phrase that America supports Taiwan's peaceful reunification with China. Now, at the moment, America supports a peaceful solution, but it doesn't define what that solution might be. If you use the word reunification, then you are defining the solution, and that will be a huge change. And again, as Memphis points out, Donald Trump is not famed for his language discipline. Just one word uttered out of place could fundamentally change American policy. Now, I still don't think this is very likely, because, after all, for what Donald Trump may say or not say is one thing. But he will have people like Marco Rubio who really do understand the importance of all these words and phrases sitting next to him, who will dig him in the ribs or whatever it is to stop him from saying this kind of thing. So I don't think it's very likely, but it's worth looking out for. In any encounter between Trump and Xi, even the slightest change in America's language on the Taiwan problem would be a victory for China.

[Roland Oliphant]

Is there maybe a fourth option we could add to David's three involving Xi Jinping? Could Xi Jinping provide that, that fourth way for Donald Trump to get out of this trilemma that he's in?

[Memphis Barker]

The guys I spoke to for the piece were like, the thing is that China could well say to Trump, of course, we'll help you with Iran, but how do you know, they actually follow through. China would say, well, we're already basically doing what you want because we already have called for resumption of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. And they might go elliptically, yes, of course we'll kind of lean on Tehran, but. But it can be very hard for anyone in Washington to really hold them to account on that kind of promise. And as I was speaking to John Zinn, who's a fellow at the Brookings Institute and a former China CIA analyst, and he was saying they've had the problem with North Korea much closer to home for decades, and they've never really applied massive amounts of pressure there. And that's contrast that with Iran. That problem is much further away. The idea that it would expend huge amounts of diplomatic capital to bring the Iranians into line, he thought was relatively unlikely. So Trump may want Chinese help, but the question is how far they'd actually follow through on anything they might promise.

[Roland Oliphant]

I suppose there is a thing about, because of that global economic clout. And David, you mentioned something about this to me earlier, about how China actually could, in a way, soften the global blow from the oil crisis through Hormuz.

[Memphis Barker]

Yes.

[David Blair]

In fact, China already quietly has. They have reduced their import of oil diesel by about 3 million barrels a day. Pre crisis, they were importing about 11 million barrels a day. Now it's down to just above 8 million barrels a day or thereabouts. And that is helping the world economy to cope with the net loss through the strait of about 12 million barrels a day. And that's one of the reasons why oil prices have not risen even higher than they are now. Given the duration of the closure of the Strait, I think most people would have expected oil prices to be higher than they are. One reason why they're not is that China has quietly cut its imports.

[Roland Oliphant]

Beijing are being helpful.

[David Blair]

Beijing are being helpful when it comes to stabilizing the world economy in that respect. However, in return for that, they will expect plenty of goodwill, particularly from their neighbors in Asia who are the most exposed to shipments through the Strait.

[Roland Oliphant]

So you were just talking about Pakistan, how badly they've been affected. So is that why the Chinese are being so helpful and responsible in a way? I mean, why are they doing it? Were they asked to do this by Donald Trump? They're just thinking, well, this seems like the sensible thing to do for the planet.

[David Blair]

I no idea what the background is, but they are doing this. And you can see that from their point of view. Diplomatically, that would be quite A shrewd move because they can contrast their behavior with that of America. So they will no doubt be saying to their neighbors in Asia, the Americans have caused this problem by starting a war which led to the closure of the Strait and can put your economies in jeopardy. We are doing what we can to diminish the severity of the consequences by reducing our imports of oil.

[Roland Oliphant]

They're using their reserves.

[David Blair]

Yes. They've got huge reserves of their own. I don't know how they're making up for the loss of 3 million barrels a day of imports. One option would be to use their plentiful reserves. Other options would be to reduce demand. I don't know how.

[Roland Oliphant]

But they're doing it somehow.

[David Blair]

But they are doing it somehow.

[Roland Oliphant]

Absolutely fascinating. All other things being equal is probably going to dominate global news coverage for the week, so we'll keep an eye on it. Any final thoughts? Memphis?

[Memphis Barker]

I mean, I think there's something interesting going on within the U.S. administration and the U.S. delegation, at least, is that you have some divide between the more hawkish members of the team and those who are relatively kind of softer on China. What we're hearing is that Scott Besant has emerged, you know, aligning increasingly with the national security approach to China, saying you need to crack down. We need to get tough on them. And you've had, I guess in the past year or so, you've seen some losses for the slightly more dovish members of the White House administration. David Sachs, who's formerly a White House advisor on technology and things like that, but he was advocating the US Selling advanced AI chips to China and things like that. He's been let go. And there's been recent shifts background to a slightly more traditionally kind of Marco Rubio ish approach to China within the White House kind of top team. So I think that'll be interesting to watch play out as we kind of get to see exactly who's sitting where in the Great hall of the People when they meet later this week.

[Roland Oliphant]

Yeah. David Blair, would you like the very

[David Blair]

final thought on Iran? Trump would love to just declare victory and walk away, but he can't. And the more I think about it, the more I think his only way out of this fix is to take military action to reopen the Strait and then declare victory and walk away.

[Roland Oliphant]

Well, we'll leave it there. Food for thought. Stay with us throughout the week, please. But that is all for today. We will be back tomorrow. I'll be hosting again. Venetia is off for the week, as it happens. Until then, that was Iran the Latest Goodbye. Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Roland Olyphant and Venetia Rainey. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest in your preferred podcast app and if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondence on the ground, sign up to our new daily newsletter Cables via our website or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We are still on the same email address battlelinestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes the producer is Peter Shevelin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.

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