Battle Lines – "No Limits": Russia, China and US Enter New Nuclear Arms Race

Podcast: Battle Lines (The Telegraph)
Episode Date: February 4, 2026
Guests:

• Daria Dolzakhova (Royal United Services Institute, Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Senior Research Fellow)
• Matthew Bunn (Professor of Energy, National Security and Foreign Policy, Harvard Kennedy School)

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode explores the demise of the last major arms control treaty (New START) between the US and Russia, the unchecked growth of nuclear arsenals, and the entry of China as a rapidly growing third nuclear power. Hosts Arthur Scott Geddes and Daria Dolzakhova are joined by Matthew Bunn to analyze what the end of formal nuclear limits means for the world: heightened nuclear risks, new arms races, and diminished global security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The End of New START: Why It Matters

• What was New START?
  • Limited the US and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads each, with additional launcher restrictions.
  • Served as the final binding limitation on the world’s largest nuclear arsenals.
• What happens now?
  • Its expiry leaves both nations unconstrained, for the first time since 1991.
  • There’s concern about a dramatically riskier and more unpredictable nuclear environment.
• Quote:
  • "For the first time in half a century, we'll be in a world where we have no agreed limits on the buildup of the nuclear forces of the world's largest nuclear powers. And that is going to somewhat increase danger."
    – Matthew Bunn (02:42)

2. The Numbers Game: Why So Many Warheads?

• Drivers of Arsenal Size:
  • Not just deterrence against direct attacks, but also for assuring allies (extended deterrence).
  • Russia’s motivation also steeped in national prestige and strategic culture.
• China’s Rapid Buildup:
  • Upsets decades-old bilaterally managed nuclear stability.
• US Response:
  • Some in Washington argue that the US must be able to strike both Russia and China at once, which would require significantly more warheads.
• Quote:
  • "There are people in the United States who say...we need to have the ability to target all Russian nuclear sites and all Chinese nuclear weapons at the same time. And if you want that, you haven't got enough nuclear weapons even now."
    – Matthew Bunn (05:46)

3. Why Was the Treaty Allowed to Expire?

• Failed Follow-ups:
  • Russian offer to maintain limits without inspections/data sharing was deemed insufficient and underdeveloped.
  • US focus shifted to potentially trilateral arms control (including China), making negotiations far more complex.
• The Missed Opportunity:
  • Russia’s peace offering was “perhaps a good starting point, but certainly undercooked” (07:30).
  • Distrust, the Ukraine war, and missile defense disputes doomed further talks.
• Quote:
  • "Arms control is not something you do with countries you like...It's an investment in our own security by limiting the forces of adversaries."
    – Matthew Bunn (09:28)

4. Nuclear Multipolarity: China, India, Pakistan, North Korea

• Non-NPT States:
  • India, Pakistan, Israel (never signed NPT); North Korea (withdrew).
• China’s Arsenal:
  • Likely tripled; expected to reach 1,000 warheads soon (currently around 600).
  • US planners fear bilateral deals with Russia are now less meaningful.
• Quote:
  • "Because some countries aren't part of the system doesn't mean the system doesn't have value...but it's a huge problem and it's a gap in the global nuclear architecture."
    – Matthew Bunn (12:19)

5. Modernization and New Weapons

• Russia & US Programs:
  • Both are updating arsenals and delivery systems.
  • Russia developing “novel” strategic systems (nuclear-powered torpedoes & cruise missiles) outside any current arms control.
• Concerns:
  • These “novel systems” signal a perceived vulnerability and are designed to evade potential US missile defense.
• Quote:
  • "To me, what these new systems point to...is a certain level of at least perceived vulnerability on the part of Russia of the survivability of its strategic forces."
    – Daria Dolzakhova (14:11)

6. Is the Arms Race Already Underway?

• Limited Immediate Impact:
  • Analysts expect any buildup will be gradual due to high costs and technical challenges.
  • Nearest-term changes could be “uploading” (arming more missiles with stored warheads).
• Quote:
  • "Uploading of the existing warheads, for better or for worse, isn't that expensive or time consuming. It's the building really new stuff that is really costing gigantic amounts of money."
    – Matthew Bunn (19:06)

7. Impact of Emerging Technology (AI)

• AI in Nuclear Context:
  • Benefits for logistics/intelligence, but real risks in decision-making environments.
  • No appetite among nuclear states for handing launch decisions to AI.
  • But speeding up situational assessment could make crisis decision-making riskier (“Launch on Warning”).
• Quote:
  • "I worry...AI is very likely to speed up the decision making process. So I worry about that...decisions that could lead to the deaths of tens of millions of human beings should be made in minutes."
    – Matthew Bunn (22:07)

8. Can Europe Trust the US Nuclear Umbrella?

• European Anxieties:
  • Amid talk of US “retrenchement” and political strains, some Europeans speculate on developing national deterrents.
• Expert View:
  • Building their own arsenals is unlikely/practically infeasible for states like Germany or the Nordics.
• France & UK:
  • Discussion increases about how their nuclear forces might backstop deterrence as US reliability is questioned.
• Quote:
  • "The fact that we are having these types of discussions publicly I think is a really...unfortunate indication of the extent of the anxieties in Europe over US extended deterrence."
    – Unnamed Expert (24:32)

9. How Worried Should We Be?

• Doomsday Clock at 85 Seconds to Midnight:
  • Experts see risk at its highest point in decades due to “intense hostility between the two largest nuclear states,” Chinese ambitions, and multiple regional flashpoints (Ukraine, Taiwan, Korea, South Asia).
• Successes to Remember:
  • Nuclear risk and arsenal size have declined enormously since the Cold War.
  • Still, “no restraints...would not be a world that I want to leave to my children.”
• Quote:
  • "Unfortunately, I think we need to be quite concerned. We are in a world where the danger that nuclear weapons would be used is higher than it's been for decades."
    – Matthew Bunn (27:04)
  • "But...35 years ago there were nine states with nuclear weapons, and today there are nine states with nuclear weapons. That's an amazing public policy success story."
    – Matthew Bunn (27:04)

10. The Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence

• Deterrent Power Remains:
  • The main question is credibility—will the US or its allies really risk their own destruction for others?
  • Nuclear weapons still deter all-out attacks but are less effective against incremental or indirect aggression.
• Lessons for Others:
  • North Korea and Iran likely see nuclear weapons as essential for regime survival after Ukraine’s experience.
• Quotes:
  • "The reality is...people aren't at all convinced that the United States will be there for them when the time comes. Extended deterrence means raising your right hand and saying, yeah, I'll fight Russia for you, or I'll fight China for you..."
    – Matthew Bunn (30:39)
  • "There is a debate now in Ukraine...perhaps if Ukraine had retained those nuclear weapons, that Russia may not have invaded as readily."
    – Unnamed Expert (32:45)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "For the first time in half a century, we'll be in a world where we have no agreed limits on the buildup of the nuclear forces of the world's largest nuclear powers." – Matthew Bunn (02:42)

• "Arms control is not something you do with countries you like...It's an investment in our own security."
  – Matthew Bunn (09:28)

• "I worry...AI is very likely to speed up the decision making process. So I worry about that...decisions that could lead to the deaths of tens of millions of human beings should be made in minutes."
  – Matthew Bunn (22:07)

• "The fact that we are having these types of discussions publicly I think is a...an unfortunate indication of the extent of the anxieties in Europe over US extended deterrence." – Unnamed Expert (24:32)

• "We are in a world where the danger that nuclear weapons would be used is higher than it's been for decades...But more than 4/5 of all the nuclear weapons that used to exist in the world have been destroyed..." – Matthew Bunn (27:04)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:37] – Explanation of New START's limits and its significance
• [05:46] – Motivations for current US and Russian arsenal sizes
• [07:30] – Why the New START treaty expired, and compromise efforts
• [12:19] – The problem of non-NPT states and China’s rapid buildup
• [14:11] – Modernization and new Russian nuclear systems
• [18:32] – Costs and timelines of any new arms race
• [22:07] – The risks and uncertainties AI introduces to nuclear decision-making
• [24:32] – Extended deterrence doubt in Europe
• [27:04] – The Doomsday Clock and the current state of global nuclear risk
• [30:39] – Does nuclear deterrence still work?
• [32:45] – Lessons learned by other states from the Ukraine conflict

Conclusion

The panel underscores a stark warning: with arms control structures dissolving, modernization racing ahead, China surging, and trust evaporating, the nuclear risk environment is the most dangerous since the Cold War. While past policy successes give hope, urgent leadership is needed to avoid a new era of arms racing and brinksmanship.

For listeners, this episode provides clear, expert-driven insight into why the expiry of New START is a pivotal moment for global security—and why the world needs to pay attention before nuclear risks spiral out of control.