← Iran: The Latest
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- [00:04]
Xin Yi Pai
The telegraph.
- [00:10]
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- [00:57]
James Rothwell
The Germans are not ready yet to kind of take over that American deterrent role in terms of the Troo presence in Germany, that they're years away, at the very least of being able to handle that. So there's a lot of anxiety about what might be coming down the track. A short time ago, the United States
- [01:15]
Roland Oliphant
military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [01:21]
Xin Yi Pai
Today, President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.
- [01:31]
Roland Oliphant
The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it. Does anyone really think that someone can
- [01:45]
James Rothwell
tell President Trump what to do?
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Roland Oliphant
Come on.
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Venetia Rainey
I'm Venetia Rainey.
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Roland Oliphant
And I'm Roland Oliphant.
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Venetia Rainey
And this is Iran at the latest. It's Wednesday, 6th of May, 2026. It's 68 days since the war began and 29 days since the ceasefire was declared. And we might be on the cusp of the war ending for real. So our first top story today is that the United States and Iran are apparently close to agreeing a deal. That's according to Axios. Now, this is based on a one page memorandum that apparently would require Iran to pause its nuclear enrichment, while the US Would agree to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and then both sides would allow free passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which we'll be getting onto in a bit more detail later. This is apparently 14 point memorandum of understanding. It's not clear how much that aligns with the 14 point proposal that the Iranians sent to the Americans over the week. Nothing's been agreed yet, but we're having sources from Pakistan saying that it will close very soon, that we're getting close and the oil markets are reacting with Brent crude dropping more than 5% to a two week low of $104 a barrel. We have Marco Rubio potentially hinting something along these lines yesterday, didn't we, Roland?
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Roland Oliphant
Yes. Marco Rubio spoke to the press shortly after Pete Hegseth did we. We managed to get Hegseth into yesterday's podcast comments very much in the same vein. He talked about continu operation to get ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Like Hegseth, he emphasised that that was a defensive operation, not an offensive one. Very much taking a kind of softly, softly approach, no tub thumping there. And then he had this to say about where we are in the progress of the war.
- [03:29]
Marco Rubio
The Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to, you know, we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What the President would prefer is a deal. The operation is over. Epic Fury as president notified Congress, we're done with that stage of it. Okay. We're now onto this project of freedom. Now, what's really important for you to report and for everyone to understand is this is not an offensive operation. This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. Okay? We're not attacking them. We're not. But if they're attacking us or they're attacking a ship, you need to respond to that. There is no international law that allows you to say I'm going to put mines in an international body of water and I'm going to blow up ships that don't listen to us and try to go through. That's what Iran is doing. This is a criminal act and someone needs to do something about it. Something needs to be done. It's completely illegal, completely illegitimate and completely unacceptable.
- [04:28]
Roland Oliphant
So there you have it. It's official. Marco Rubio himself, Operation Epic Fury is over. I suppose the question that remains open is whether that means the war itself is over or not. And the other big question, of course, is that Donald Trump's announcement, announced in the early hours of the morning that all those things that Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio had been telling us about this very important operation to get ships out of the Persian Gulf, which they'd said was a very serious thing, was going to continue humanitarian, laser focused on that. And Donald Trump announced that he's Just pressing pause on that, he said because they were getting close to a deal with the Iranians of some sort and that the Pakistanis and asked him to pause the operation. My suspicion, if you're interested in my suspicions, is that as we discussed on yesterday's podcast, that operation had resulted in a lot of we could euphemistically call kinetic activity, drones, things being shot, missiles flying around again, strikes on ships, strikes on oil refineries in the uae. And it put us one step away from returning to full scale hostilities. Easy to see how the escalation ladder could be climbed from there. My suspicion, Donald Trump did not want to climb that escalation ladder and therefore could see where this was going. And that's why he pressed, paused on this to avoid a resumption of a full scale war.
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Venetia Rainey
Pretty short lived even for a Trump project. But it seems like the Iranians are happy with that too. They've made a statement. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has made a statement today saying that it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It says with the end of the aggressors threats and in the shadow of new procedures, the possibility of safe and sustainable passage through the strait will be provided. Well, we'll wait to see what safe and sustainable passage looks like. Last I saw this morning, nothing's moving through the Strait of Hormuz for the moment. So I think shipping companies will need something much more concrete than these sorts of statements for now. But the signs do seem to be pointing in a positive direction for the conclusion of this war. Can we say that?
- [06:29]
Roland Oliphant
Well, the rhetoric's, you know, I will remind you of the words of Ronan Keating. He's only words. And words at this point are all they have to take our hearts away. That's the rhetoric. Yes. This morning the rhetoric is looking like we're headed towards some kind of deal that will reopen the Straits of Hormuz, which we could presumably extrapolating Venetia, I would guess that would involve the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for the Iranians lifting their blockade of the Strait of Hormones, Hormuz and what the Revolutionary Guard mean there a huge number of questions. Are they going to start charging people? Are they going to keep that toll booth in place?
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Venetia Rainey
Right. They passed a law that suggests they were going to have to charge tolls.
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Roland Oliphant
All of this stuff, them claiming that because the Americans have pressed pause on Project Freedom is a great victory and the Americans have gone away. The Americans haven't stopped their blockade on Iranian ports. So I don't know, it's only words for now.
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Venetia Rainey
Quite. Well, for our third story, we should look at Iran and China, who are meeting today. So Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Al Rakji has been making a massive diplomatic tour over the last few weeks and he's now in Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Now, this is interesting because this is Aragchi's first visit to China since the war began. China obviously a key customer for Iranian oil, and Iran a key customer for a lot of Chinese exports as well. So this is a key business relationship. And it comes a week before Trump is supposed to be visiting Xi Jinping in Beijing. So there's clearly lots of things aligning here. China has repeatedly tried to stay out of this conflict, although there have been lots of reports of it shipping potentially missile fuel to Iran. But officially it stayed neutral and it's called for an end to the conflict. And we had more of that today. It described the war as illegitimate. It's called for an immediate ceasefire and has stressed that direct meetings between the two sides are essential. And just to come back to Rubio's statement yesterday, he also mentioned China. He's asked China to put pressure on Iran to end their chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
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Marco Rubio
I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told and that is that what you are doing in the straits is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this. You guys should not be blowing up ships, you should not be putting mines, you should not be holding hostage the global, trying to hold hostage the global economy. I hope the Chinese bring, whether it's done privately, but I hope it's done directly. That that's the message they deliver to them. As I outlined earlier today, China is an export driven economy. Okay, I'm not here to speak on behalf of what's in the best interest of China, but it's in the best interest of China. But it's obvious China is an export driven economy. That means they depend on other countries to buy from them. Well, you can't buy from them if you can't ship it there. And you can't buy from them if your economy is being destroyed by what Iran is doing. So it isn't Iran. It is in China's interest that Iran stop closing the straits. It's harming China as well.
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Venetia Rainey
China, both sides recognize, is a really key player in this key to have onside. We can expect to see their role grow over the coming week, especially when Trump gets there. Next Thursday.
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Roland Oliphant
Yeah. Notable to see Iran obviously getting to Beijing before Donald Trump, trying to obviously get their side of the story across to the Chinese before the Americans do. Whether that has any sway with the Chinese and what they decide is in their interests. Certainly we know that, you know, Donald Trump clearly wanted to have this war wrapped up in a, in a successful way before he, you know, shows up in a meeting with Xi Jinping. Obviously, that's not the case, which is not ideal when you're talking to your number one geopolitical rival. Whether or not this is top of the Chinese agenda at the talks, we don't know. And there's been some reporting that actually Chinese really want to talk about Taiwan. That's what's preoccupying them more than the Iran question.
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Venetia Rainey
If you want to hear more about that, do go back to our episode last Thursday. We'll link to it in the show. Notes. We spoke to Sam Olson, chief analyst at Sibling, and he was speaking about exactly that, about how he thinks that the talks next week, the shadow of some sort of grand bargain about Taiwan, might be on the agenda. He talks about lots of rumors flying around amongst very senior people in Washington. So go back and check that out if you're interested in that particular strand. We're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after the break, we're going to be looking at Trump's decision to pull troops from Germany and what it means for the transatlantic alliance.
- [10:46]
Roland Oliphant
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran. The latest with me, Roland Olyphant and Benisha Rainey. Earlier this week, Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Mears ended up in a bit of a spat with Donald Trump over the Iran war, which culminated in Mr. Trump ordering the withdrawal of 5,000American troops from Germany. Why is this a big deal? Well, to explain it, we spoke to James Rothwell, who joined us from a train station in Germany.
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Venetia Rainey
James, welcome to around the latest. Just walk us through. We know that the US has said it's going to withdraw 5,000 troops. That broke last week and it said that will happen over the next six to 12 months. Trump then came out over the weekend and said he's going to be cutting a lot further than 5,000. You're in Germany. What's the administration there actually been told is definitely happening.
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James Rothwell
There's a bit of an argument going on here in Germany as to what prompted this. On the face of it, rather shocking decision by the United states to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany at a time of unprecedented tensions with Russia. Friedrich Metz, the German Chancellor has been accused of kind of blundering into this situation by criticizing the Trump administration's performance in the war on Iran. And it's been claimed that Trump was so angry and offended by Metz's criticism that he retaliated by withdrawing the 5,000 troops. The German government itself disputes that. They say that this has been on the cards for a very long time and that they're not concerned about the decision to withdraw these soldiers. They point out that there's about 40,000 stationed in Germany. So 5,000 being taken down is for them, not an enormous amount of troop losses. But as you've just said, Trump has now signaled that this is just the beginning, and that's caused a great deal of anxiety. The fact of the matter is that the Germans are not ready yet to kind of take over that American deterrent role in terms of the troop presence in Germany, that they're years away at the very least, of being able to handle that. So there's a lot of anxiety about what might be coming down the track, what might follow this, what now seems to be a kind of initial shot across the bowels of the 5,000 troops.
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Venetia Rainey
We should talk about what exactly the Americans do in Germany. I'd be really interested to hear more about that. But just on that Iran link, I just want to read our listeners a quote of what President Friedrich Merz told some students last week. He said, the Americans clearly have no strategy in the Iran war. The Iranians are obviously very skilled at negotiating, or rather very skillful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad and then leave again without any result. And he added that the entire nation of America was being humiliated by Iran. In response, Trump posted on Truth Social that Mertz thought it was okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and doesn't know what he's talking about. So a proper war of words there between two leaders of countries who previously had quite a good relationship. Is that right?
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James Rothwell
Friedrich Mertz and Donald Trump actually got off to a pretty good start in terms of their bilateral relationship. Friedrich Merz was over at the Oval Office last March, had a very, very warm, cozy sit down with Donald Trump. The president said that he was doing a great job in Germany. And one really got the impression that they, as I said, that the relationship got off to a good start. What was very interesting about that meeting, which on the surface of things went so well, was that there was a moment when President Trump really laid into Pedro Sanchez, the leader of Spain, and Sir Keir Starmer. He was attacking them for not giving the Americans enough support on the war in Iran. And Friedrich Metz just kind of sat there next to the US President in the Oval Office, didn't say anything, didn't challenge it. And frankly, he got absolutely monstered for that back in Germany by the press and by other politicians as well. They thought that was weak and meek from a German chancellor who they felt should have stood up to President Trump when he was criticizing Germany's allies in Europe. That might explain perhaps that quote that you've just read out from Mr. Mertz later on where he was criticizing the Americans, perhaps trying to regain a bit of face after looking in the eyes of many Germans so weak during that, that Oval Office meeting. That could be part of the, the psychodrama, if you like, behind the scenes as well.
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Roland Oliphant
James, could you just tell us what exactly do all these American troops do in Germany?
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James Rothwell
There's about 40,000 troops stationed at various bases across Germany and the main one is a Ramstein, an air base. And there's a technical role that they embody, which is obviously not just deterrence against Russia, but their sort of mere presence, if you like, is supposed to be a deterrence against Russia. But there's also something really symbolically important, I think, about the presence of American troops in Germany. If you remember, as part of that sort of post war period, you had the deployment of huge numbers of soldiers there. And this was very reassuring to the German government. Many, many decades of German leadership has not wanted to invest in defense. This is what President Trump's been criticizing the Germans about so much. The Germans felt just very reassured that they had all of these guys in US Military uniforms sort of moving around these bases. There was almost a kind of big brother, little brother relationship going on, if you see what I mean. American, America being the big brother, of course, Saka, which is a very important role in NATO. It's basically the head of NATO forces in Europe that has traditionally always been held by an American. So it's not just about the troop numbers that are posted there. As I said, about 40,000. It's a big, visible, tangible example of American firepower in Germany and being part of that effect of deterrence, not just for Germany itself, but of course, but for the rest of Europe as well. There is another aspect to this which we should probably touch on. When the withdrawal of 5,000 troops was announced, it was also reported that at the same time as doing this, the Trump administration has cancelled a Biden administration era pledge to send long range missiles to Germany. So those are now not arriving in Germany and That's to some extent an even bigger concern than the drawdown of troops because the German government doesn't actually have the means to replace those long range defensive missiles that were due to be posted in Germany as well.
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Roland Oliphant
James, how important, if at all, are these American facilities in Germany for the prosecution of the war in Iran?
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James Rothwell
I don't think they're hugely important for the prosecution of the war in Iran, but my understanding is that there are some German bases, including Ramstein Air Base, which are being used by the Americans as a kind of form of, you could say, a coordination role.
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Venetia Rainey
So how big a dent would this put then, for the German defence? I know they're still building up. They've been on this massive programme of rearmament, Zeitenwende, under Olaf Scholz, and is being continued now under Friedrich Merz. And you've written extensively about all of this. How big a problem is this? You mentioned the long range missiles, but the troops being withdrawn, is it an issue for Germans defence?
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James Rothwell
I think the withdrawal of the 5,000 troops is not, on the surface of things, a huge, huge deal. In terms of numbers, we're talking about a total deployment of US forces of about 40,000. If that number had been, for the sake of argument, 20,000 or 15,000, that might have given the Germans not much more concern. The caveat to that is that the Trump administration has kind of hinted that more withdrawals may be coming and some German officials are trying to put a brave face on this. They make the argument that they've known ever since the first Trump administration that the Americans have been keen to withdraw and that this is actually an opportunity for Germany, which is trying to increase its own recruiting numbers anyway, to kind of replace some of those US soldiers with German soldiers of their own. As you point out, Friedrich Metz, the German Chancellor, has vowed to make the German army well. He said he wants it to be the strongest conventional army in Europe. Replacing those 5,000 lost American soldiers with Germans perhaps could be a step towards doing that. So there are some in the German government who are trying to, as it were, make the most of a disappointing situation for them.
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Venetia Rainey
And there's a broader context here, isn't there? We had Donald Tusk, the leader of Poland, on Saturday. He wrote that the greatest threat to the transatlantic community are not its external enemies, but the ongoing disintegration of our alliance, that is NATO. And he said we must all do what it takes to reverse this disastrous trend. The disintegration of NATO is a story that's, you know, we've been reporting on and off for the last few years. We all know that Trump is not a massive fan of NATO. He managed to get everyone to boost their defense budgets to 5% last year. But the Iran war has really tested a lot of that alliance. Trump has also suggested pulling American troops from Italy and Spain who've refused to play any part in the Iran war. What do you think are going to be the broader ramifications of this move?
- [19:28]
James Rothwell
I think that it's the US Administration sending a very clear signal that it wants Europe to look after itself when it comes to defence. The waters have been muddied slightly by the timing of this announcement of the 5,000 soldiers because it was follow that war of words between President Trump and Friedrich Metz. It has been perceived, whether it's true or not, it's certainly been perceived as kind of retaliation for the way that the German Chancellor criticized the war effort. If you look at the longer term trajectory here, certainly if you speak to officials in NATO itself, they will say that Europe becoming more independent on security is very much part of the long term plan. And I think they have ultimately try to put a brave face on this as a result of that. But as you point out, Donald Tusk has already openly said that this is an example of NATO disintegrating. And I think one of the problems that we've got here is that Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, he calls it how he sees it. He speaks very frankly. There are other voices in NATO and NATO allies who they're really reluctant to say openly in public just how sort of worried they are about this. There's obviously been concerns for a very long time now about the much more kind of sympathetic approach that this Trump administration has taken towards Russia. The question of whether that's being fueled by the kind of MAGA wing of the party or elsewhere is, you know, obviously part of that debate. I think sometimes when we see officials from NATO and NATO allied countries saying, oh, nothing to see here. We knew that we'd been expected, you know, to become more independent of the United States for some time. Some of those folks are saying it because it is indeed the case in the long term, that's what Europe needs to do. But I think some are just, as I said, trying to put a brave face on this frankly quite alarming situation where you've got internecine warfare to some extent happening within the NATO alliance itself. And that's exactly what Donald Tusk was alluding to.
- [21:20]
Venetia Rainey
James Rothwell, our Berlin correspondent, in a train station in Germany. Thanks very much for joining us on around the Latest.
- [21:25]
James Rothwell
Thank you,
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Roland Oliphant
Telegraph Berlin correspondent James Rothwell speaking to us there.
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Venetia Rainey
That's all for today's episode of Iran the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye.
- [21:39]
Roland Oliphant
AFID is in.
- [21:50]
Venetia Rainey
Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondents on the ground, sign up for our new daily newsletter, Cables, or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address battleionselegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes the producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.
- [22:36]
James Rothwell
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Xin Yi Pai
Hi, I'm Xin Yi Pai. Five years ago I sat down in front of a microphone with a simple goal to share stories from the Asian American experience and to do that by talking about everyday objects. Now, 10,000 Things is headed into its fifth and final season and we've got a new set of stories about coming fully into oneself, weird and wild and inspired. Tune in to the final season of 10,000 things from Acast Creative Studios, a podcast about modern day artifacts of Asian American life and the stories they reveal. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:33]
James Rothwell
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