Battle Lines – January 23, 2026

"The old world order is dead": Trump, Canada and the battle for the West

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Battle Lines centers on an extraordinary week of geopolitical upheaval: the US-Denmark-Greenland crisis, Donald Trump’s and Canadian PM Mark Carney’s dueling visions for the global order at Davos, and the rise of a new “Board of Peace” initiative poised as an alternative to the UN. Hosts Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant, joined by correspondent James Rothwell (reporting from Nuuk, Greenland) and chief foreign commentator David Blair, provide in-depth reporting and analysis on what may be the unraveling of the Western-led international order, and the realignment of alliances in the face of assertive US power.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crisis in Greenland: US “Sovereign Base” Deal

Reporting from Nuuk, Greenland:
James Rothwell describes a “muted” but anxious response among locals to reports that the US will be given sovereign control over certain military base areas in Greenland—a scenario reminiscent of British bases on Cyprus.

• The American, Danish, and Greenlandic governments are moving towards a deal where parts of Greenland become US “sovereign base areas.”
• Core local anxiety is less about resource exploitation and much more about longstanding traumas of colonialism and independence:

  “We will not breathe a sigh of relief until there is normalization and Greenland, Denmark receive clear confirmation that Greenland will not be annexed in one way or another.”
  — Orla Yolsson, Greenlandic independence activist (04:23)

• Many Inuit Greenlanders see themselves “in a tug of war between two colonial powers”—the US and Denmark—rather than caught in a major-power contest with Russia or China (08:47).
• The threat of mineral/resource exploitation as a justification for American moves is widely overhyped, per both Danish experts and practical realities: the terrain is punishing, infrastructure almost non-existent, and two major mining projects remain stuck in legal limbo.
  • Greenland holds an estimated 1.5 million metric tons of rare earths but, as Venetia Rainey notes, “we’re so far from where we can actually get to them and, crucially, process them, which China does for over 90% around the world” (07:21).
• Militarization and security: Despite Trump’s rhetoric about Greenland being overrun with Russian and Chinese vessels, Rothwell asserts, “the only thing you can see are fishing boats… and the occasional Danish coast guard patrol ship” (11:13).

“If the annexation were to happen, it would just be the transfer from one colonial power to the other.”
— James Rothwell (08:59)

Local Color:
Rothwell paints a vivid picture of Nuuk: frigid, postcard-perfect, with “sheer walls of ice,” hardy fishermen and hunter-culture, and deep undercurrents of tension between Danish and Inuit communities (12:26).

2. The Diplomatic Solution: A “Shabby Necessity?”

David Blair’s Analysis:
Blair, who presciently proposed the model of US sovereign bases on Greenland, describes the deal as “shabby” but likely necessary to prevent outright confrontation:

“A sovereign state, Denmark, will be bullied and browbeaten into giving up some of its sovereign territory… You're breaking a central principle by watching a country like Denmark being browbeaten in this way. It might be necessary, but it’s a terrible necessity.”
— David Blair (22:18)

Wider Implications:
He sees the willingness of Europe to unite behind Denmark, and not yield to Trump's divide-and-rule tactics, as one positive sign for “middle powers” going forward.

3. The Death of the Old World Order: Carney’s Manifesto

A Moment-Defining Speech:
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a keynote at Davos, using Václav Havel’s “living within a lie” to describe decades of western-anchored international order and its current collapse:

“This bargain no longer works… We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is. We are taking the sign out of the window. We know the old order is not coming back…”
— Mark Carney, via selected speech clips (24:30–25:30)

Carney urges “middle powers” (Canada, the UK, France, others) to band together, confront the realities of power politics, and chart a new path rooted in cooperation and honesty about the limits of U.S. hegemony.

• The hosts and guests find this rhetoric both “refreshing” and “inspiring,” marking a break from Western platitudes (27:44).
• Roland likens the analysis to a long-delayed “calling a spade a spade,” and frames Carney’s call as a possible birth of a “new nonaligned block” (28:24).
• Trump, by contrast, is openly dismissive, telling Canada:

  “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”
  — Donald Trump (29:28)

4. Trump’s Davos Vision: Board of Peace vs. the UN

The “Board of Peace” Announcement:
Trump stages a media event at Davos, rolling out a “Board of Peace” concept that purports to be an alternative or supplement to the UN, with ambitious rhetoric and unclear substance.

• The board gathers populist allies (Argentina’s Javier Milei, Hungary’s Viktor Orban), minor states, and notably excludes almost all of the UN Security Council P5 (UK, France, Russia, China, US).
• France and the UK choose not to join, fearing permanent damage to their positions in the existing order.
  • Blair:

  “If there’s one thing that’s even more important than staying on the right side of Trump for Keir Starmer, that’s the British permanent seat on the UN Security Council. That’s probably the single greatest diplomatic asset the United Kingdom possesses.” (36:59)

• Trump’s own description is strikingly blunt:

  “Once this board is completely formed, we can do pretty much whatever we want to do and we'll do it in conjunction with the United Nations. … On the eight wars that I ended, I never spoke to the United Nations about any of them.”
  — Donald Trump (34:03)

UN in Decline:
There is consensus that the UN is being “sidelined in an extraordinary way” in all major crises, a symptom and accelerator of multipolar disorder (38:46).

5. Europe’s Dilemma and the Multipolar World

Middle Powers at the Crossroads:
With the international order fracturing, Britain (and the EU) must reinvent themselves—either banding together for collective “hard power” or risking being relegated to the status of pawns in a tripartite world divided by US, Chinese, and Russian spheres.

• Blair underscores the primacy of “hard power” and warns against overreliance on new trade deals with China, whose goal is “to buy nothing from you” (40:34).
• Roland argues that unless Europe “grows its own superpower personality,” it will be relegated to “just an arena for competition, which is not comfortable at all” (41:52–42:59).

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “We will not breathe a sigh of relief until… clear confirmation that Greenland will not be annexed in one way or another.”
  — Orla Yolsson, Greenlandic independence activist, read by James Rothwell (04:23)

• “If the annexation were to happen…it would just be the transfer from one colonial power to the other.”
  — James Rothwell (08:59)

• “We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
  — Mark Carney, Davos speech (25:04)

• “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”
  — Donald Trump (29:28)

• “You’re breaking a central principle by watching a country like Denmark being browbeaten in this way. It might be necessary, but it’s a terrible necessity.”
  — David Blair on the Greenland deal (22:18)

• “Once this board is completely formed, we can do pretty much whatever we want to do and we’ll do it in conjunction with the United Nations.”
  — Donald Trump (34:03)

• “If there’s one thing more important than staying on Trump’s side for Starmer, that’s the British permanent seat on the UN Security Council.”
  — David Blair (36:59)

• “Europe has to grow its own superpower personality. Otherwise, it’s just an arena for competition.”
  — Roland Oliphant (41:52)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Greenland deal and local response: 03:50–12:11
• Discussion of mineral rights and resources: 06:09–08:47
• Colonial legacy and identity struggles: 08:47–12:11
• Reporting from Nuuk – “postcard” description: 12:11–16:48
• David Blair’s assessment of the “shabby deal”: 20:20–22:54
• Carney’s speech clips and analysis: 23:44–29:28
• Trump’s response & “Board of Peace” debate: 29:28–34:31
• Decline and sidelining of the UN: 34:31–39:57
• Europe’s/UK’s strategy and future of “middle powers”: 39:57–42:59

Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal moment where the postwar Western order looks to be breaking down: Greenland becomes a pawn in great-power competition, US allies navigate threats and reluctant accommodations, and Canada leads a call for a new middle-power coalition. The episode is rich in on-the-ground reporting, high-level analysis, and sharp exchanges—an essential listen (or read) for understanding the stakes and shifting sands of geopolitics in 2026.