The secret US operation defying Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade

Summary

Podcast Summary: Iran: The Latest

Episode: The secret US operation defying Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade
Date: June 4, 2026
Host(s): Venetia Rainey, Sophia Yan
Guest: Brian Clark (Retired US Navy, Hudson Institute)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Iran: The Latest dives deep into the geopolitical and military complexities of the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, focusing on recent developments in Lebanon, US domestic political shifts, and a secret US operation enabling limited shipping through the Iranian-blocked Strait of Hormuz. Through field updates and an expert interview with Brian Clark, a retired US Navy officer, the episode unpacks both the regional consequences and the behind-the-scenes maneuvers shaping the conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Evolving Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire and Its Regional Implications (02:20–10:39)

• New Ceasefire Terms:
  Lebanon and Israel have agreed to extend their ceasefire, contingent upon Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the area south of the Litani River. Israel retains operational freedom in southern Lebanon and reserves the right to strike Beirut if attacked in northern Israel.
• Hezbollah’s Rejection:
  Hezbollah chief Naim Kassam strongly denounced the deal as “shameless” and “a road map to annihilate part of the Lebanese people” ([05:10]), warning the ceasefire depends on total Israeli withdrawal.
• Shift in Lebanese Politics:
  Unprecedented talks between Beirut and Jerusalem, with US military and financial backing for the Lebanese army. The agreement suggests a tilt within the Lebanese government against Hezbollah’s dominance ([07:02]).
• On-ground Developments:
  Continuing violence: Israeli drone strikes, Hezbollah attacks, and the killing of a UNIFIL peacekeeper.
• US Positioning:
  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio labels Hezbollah “an enemy of Lebanon,” signaling a more unified US-Lebanon-Israel stance ([08:29]).
• Domestic US Political Pressure:
  Bipartisan resolution in Congress urges President Trump to seek approval for ongoing operations in Iran. The move is seen as symbolic but noteworthy ahead of midterm elections ([09:10]).

Notable Quote:

• “There’s some kind of agreement…but it is contingent on Hezbollah removing all of its fighters from the area south of the Litani river … Israel also has the freedom, and that’s a quote, to strike Beirut if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel.” — Venetia Rainey ([02:20])
• “He described it as a road map to annihilate part of the Lebanese people.”— Venetia Rainey quoting Hezbollah’s Naim Kassam ([05:10])
• “Another reason to be hopeful… this is the first time the Americans are providing military and financial backing to the Lebanese armed forces.” — Venetia Rainey ([07:02])

2. Remembering Former MI6 Chief Alex Younger (10:39–13:55)

• Legacy:
  Alex Younger, head of MI6 from 2014–2020, foresaw the current regional conflict, warning of a coming shadow war between Israel and Iran.
• Key Analysis:
  Younger explained Iran’s strategic resilience, noting their effective military decentralization and use of “horizontal escalation” to globalize the conflict and pressure the US ([11:43]).
• Comparative Strategies:
  He contrasted Iran’s “war of existence” with America’s “war of choice,” arguing this difference grants Iran greater staying power.

Notable Quote:

• “They have embarked on what’s technically called horizontal escalation…. I thought was nuts, but in fact, has been a very good way of putting a direct price on the US. Sort of worked.”— Alex Younger ([12:35])
• “They played a weak hand pretty well.”— Alex Younger ([13:42])
• “Donald Trump… confirmed something [the Iranians] knew already: that they’re in a civilizational war.” — Alex Younger ([13:09])

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3. The Secret US Operation at the Strait of Hormuz (14:53–32:17)

Operational Details and Tactics (14:53–22:51)

• US ‘Guidance, Not Escort’:
  US Central Command (CENTCOM) is not openly escorting ships but is providing intelligence, real-time threat updates, and clandestine communications as vessels hug the Omani coastline to evade Iranian detection and attack ([15:34]).
• Military Assets:
  US destroyers and especially helicopters (with surveillance and air defense capability) are supporting from a distance. Army helicopters based in Oman are contributing surveillance and defense ([17:04]).
• Secrecy and Risk:
  Ships deactivate their AIS transponders to avoid Iranian tracking, making the voyage riskier for navigation but less detectable for the Iranians ([20:05]).
• Numbers:
  Currently, only 3–4 vessels a day are escaping via this method, far fewer than the 120+ per day during peacetime. Over the last three weeks, about 70 commercial ships have gotten through, versus the normal 100–150 per day ([22:38]).

Notable Quotes:

• “They’re providing that sensing layer that allows you to run the Strait and understand whether there’s any threats coming at you.” — Brian Clark ([15:34])
• “…helicopters provide that higher height of eye…so you can see all the way into Iran. The helicopters are also good for shooting down Shaheds” — Brian Clark ([17:04])
• “They hug the Omani coast and turn off their AIS transponder. The Iranians have been using the AIS as a source of intelligence…”—Brian Clark ([20:05])
• “Right now, it looks like we’re getting maybe three or four ships a day out via this method.” — Brian Clark ([20:55])

Strategic Consequences and Limitations (22:51–27:25)

• Impact:
  The low volume of successful transits is “not a solution…only 3 or 4% of what would normally get through,” meaning global energy and food supplies remain heavily constrained ([25:25]).
• Wider Adaptation:
  Clark describes how global supply chains are adjusting, with importers seeking less Iran-dependent routes in case the blockade becomes a recurring threat.
• Iran’s Calculus:
  Iran seems to tolerate this “secret escort” tactic without major escalation, preferring limited harassment to avoid broader conflict ([23:22], [24:38]).

Notable Quote:

• “…this isn’t a solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. It’s an intriguing development, but it’s not going to help the global energy crisis, the food crisis that’s coming down the line.” — Venetia Rainey ([25:14])
• “It’s interesting that you see this under-the-radar effort to get shipping out that could just continue. And the Iranians clearly don’t necessarily like it, but they’re also not going, you know, full bore to try to stop it.”—Brian Clark ([24:38])

Omani Neutrality and US Naval Deployments (26:16–32:13)

• Oman’s Pragmatism:
  The Omani coastline is used for these secretive escapes due to proximity, and Oman is seen as trying to delicately balance relations with both the US and Iran.
• US Blockade Focus:
  US naval forces (including two carrier strike groups) remain outside the Strait, in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, enforcing a blockade aimed at Iranian ports ([27:25]).
• Sustainability:
  US deployments are already extended; maintaining current force levels is challenging. The IRGC’s naval operations remain a persistent hazard in the congested and difficult waters.
• Firsthand Perspective:
  Brian Clark recounts multiple transits of the Strait during his naval career, noting the IRGC’s daily high-tempo operations and the region’s congestion and low visibility as ongoing risks for all maritime operations ([29:04]).

Notable Quotes:

• “I think the practicalities are that the Omani coast is the best place to transit if you’re trying to avoid Iranian attacks…” — Brian Clark ([26:32])
• “…the IRGC’s navy, which is what we call it, is a pretty capable force. At least it’s operationally proficient…You’d see them out there all the time.” — Brian Clark ([29:44])
• “The Navy ships are basically providing training resources to the IRGC…you just have to get used to the fact that these guys are going to do these fake attacks or these fake attack runs.” — Brian Clark ([31:10])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|--------------------|-------| | 05:10 | Venetia Rainey | “He described it as a road map to annihilate part of the Lebanese people.” (Hezbollah leader Naim Kassam on the ceasefire deal) | | 08:29 | Venetia Rainey | “Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State’s statement describes Hezbollah as an enemy of Lebanon.” | | 11:43 | Alex Younger | “[The] reality is the US underestimated the task and…lost the initiative to Iran.” | | 13:09 | Alex Younger | “Trump made it very clear that he wanted to see them up against the wall, basically, whereas America has embarked on a war of choice.” | | 15:34 | Brian Clark | “US ships are guiding the shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the coast along Oman … providing that sensing layer that allows you to run the Strait and understand whether there’s any threats coming at you.” | | 20:55 | Brian Clark | “Right now it looks like we’re getting maybe three or four ships a day out via this method.” | | 24:38 | Brian Clark | “The Iranians clearly don’t necessarily like it, but they’re also not going, you know, full bore to try to stop it.” | | 25:25 | Venetia Rainey | “…this isn’t a solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.” | | 29:44 | Brian Clark | “The IRGC’s navy…is a pretty capable force…You’d see them out there all the time.” |

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Lebanon–Israel Ceasefire & Regional Tensions: 02:20–10:39
• Remembering MI6 Chief Alex Younger: 10:39–13:55
• Expert Interview: Brian Clark on the Strait of Hormuz: 14:53–32:17

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Conclusion

This episode provides critical insights into the evolving dynamics of the Middle East conflict, highlighting the fragile nature of ceasefires, the strategic ingenuity of Iran, and the US military’s covert response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The episode documents both the incremental diplomatic movements and the high-stakes clandestine operations that define the conflict’s current stage, underlining the broader implications for global security, energy, and political alignments.

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Transcript

[Sophia Yan]

The telegraph.

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[Brian Clark]

Just interesting that you see this under the radar effort to get shipping out that could sort of just continue. And the Iranians clearly don't necessarily like it, but they're also not going full bore to try to stop it.

[Unknown Military Correspondent]

Short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

[Sophia Yan]

Today, President Trump says Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.

[Brian Clark]

The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.

[Shashank Joshi]

Does anyone really think that someone can

[Brian Clark]

tell President Trump what to do? Come on.

[Venetia Rainey]

I'm Venetia Rainey.

[Sophia Yan]

And I'm Sophia Yam.

[Venetia Rainey]

And this is Iran. The latest.

[Sophia Yan]

It's Thursday, the 4th of June, 2026, the 97th day of the war and 57 days into the ceasefire.

[Venetia Rainey]

Later on in this episode, we're going to be looking at the Strait of Hormuz. We haven't heard about it for a while, but it is still blocked. Or is it? We're going to be looking at how the US Is arranging secret passage for ships who are trying to cross via a new channel that hugs the Omani coastline. But first, let's take a quick look at where we are today. So the big news, obviously, is Lebanon and Israel agreeing a ceasefire extension. There's some kind of agreement, but it is contingent on Hezbollah removing all of its fighters from the area south of the Litan river, so southern Lebanon and a complete cessation of its fire. Meanwhile, the Israelis are allowed to continue operations in the south of Lebanon and Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that Israel also has the freedom, and that's a quote, to strike Beirut if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel. Sophia, we've, we've joked previously about, you know, when is a ceasefire not a ceasefire. This was Donald Trump being asked, how do you define a ceasefire in the White House yesterday?

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How do you find ceasefire?

[Unknown Military Correspondent]

Pretty much the way it is. It's a different part of the world. You know, I'd say in that part of the world, ceasefires when you're shooting in a more moderate manner.

[Sophia Yan]

Well, there's been an escalation of activity between Israel and Hezbollah. Some of the thinking is that Israel is trying to cement its position with talks that were ongoing between the US And Iran through intermediaries. If some sort of agreement was reached, experts were thinking that Israel was trying to give itself as strong of a position as possible, because then the focus would then turn to figuring out what would happen next between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah. Now, this ceasefire has been in place, but there again, it's still been an active conflict zone. And this is because of a point of contention between Israel and Hezbollah. So from Hezbollah's perspective, Israel is now in Lebanese territory, and to Hezbollah, this is an OCC say that they have the right to fight back against Israel. From the Israeli perspective, they're getting hit. The IDF says that gives them then the ability to hit back at Hezbollah. So thus the ceasefire has not been a complete cessation of fire as what this new joint statement that's come out is trying to reach. So it's a really complicated scenario. Neither side really agreeing even on a starting point.

[Venetia Rainey]

It's worth just reiterating why and how this is linked to the Iran conflict. Iran has made it a condition that the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon before they agree to a wider deal with the U.S. hezbollah is their proxy in Lebanon and they want to maintain it. It's. It's a card they can play. They want to keep hold of that card. It goes without saying that Hezbollah is not in favor of this agreement. As we were recording this podcast, Hezbollah chief Naim Kassam gave a speech. Just going to read out some of his lines. He said the Lebanese government's negotiations with Israel are shameless and that the deal amounts to surrender and defeat. He described it as a road map to annihilate part of the Lebanese people. And he warned that northern Israel will not be as Lebanese villages are being bombed. He also said the ceasefire is dependent on a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. It's also not backed by The Israeli army and several Israeli government ministers. They think this is an absolutely rubbish deal. I think also what's interesting to me is that it involves some kind of formal agreement between the Lebanese government and the Israelis. So they've agreed. This idea of pilot zones, I'm taking this from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was speaking earlier this morning. So the idea is that Israel will withdraw from certain areas and the Lebanese armed forces, so the Lebanese official state army will take exclusive control of the territory. So the idea is to push Hezbollah out with an agreement between the Israelis and Lebanese. This is new stuff. This is new territory for Lebanon and Israel. The initial phase, according to A will include the Zutar area in Nabatia and Beaufort Castle, which, as our listeners will know, was just seized last weekend by the Israeli army. But there's no maps, there's no timetable. Apparently the implementation of this deal could begin within 24 hours of final approval from all the various parties. We're still waiting to see what it will actually look like on the ground. But that's the sort of sketch that we have at the moment from the Lebanese side.

[Sophia Yan]

It puts a lot of pressure on the Lebanese government. This was the case already for the agreement that had been in place after hostilities flared up between Israel and Hezbollah in relation to the war in Gaza. So there were. There was fighting then too, and there was also a ceasefire agreed at the time. One of the big sticking points was for Hezbollah to completely disarm and the military was overseeing this. But it's been very difficult in practice because Hezbollah is so embedded in the fabric of Lebanese government society. I mean, you've got Hezbollah politicians in Lebanon. There is a strong sentiment amongst many Lebanese that has hardened over these years against Israel because of all of the fighting and all the deaths.

[Venetia Rainey]

That's definitely true. But I think the Lebanese government making this agreement with the Israeli government and these talks are fairly unprecedented. This does not happen often is a sign as well of the shifting sentiment within Lebanon towards Hezbollah and the problems that they've been causing for Lebanon as a country. Another reason to be pot actually hopeful. This is the first time that the Americans are providing military and financial backing to the Lebanese armed forces to try and boost its capacity. They will need that. The Lebanese armed forces are underfunded, neglected. They don't have any kind of air force. It's a pretty impoverished army. And that's one of the reasons why they've never really been able to take on Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has much better funding and resources. Sophia, do you want to Bring us up to date on what's been happening this morning on the ground in Lebanon since we've had this agreement announced.

[Sophia Yan]

So there have been already several strikes in southern Lebanon today. One person killed, another wounded when Israeli forces targeted a motorcycle. A family wounded in an Israeli drone attack on a car. Another person killed, four injured in an Israeli strike in the Bekka Valley. A UNIFIL peacekeeper killed by a mortar shell striking his position. It's unclear who launched that attack. A Hezbollah drone struck the vehicle of the chief for Israel's Northern Command. This happened in southern Lebanon, but the shortly after he stepped out of the vehicle, so he was not injured. And then a drone was identified in northern Israel, triggering sirens in the Galilee Panhandle. No injuries were reported there either.

[Venetia Rainey]

So a busy morning in southern Lebanon and parts of northern Israel. One other thing I think is worth pulling out from the agreement. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State's statement describes Hezbollah as an enemy of Lebanon. So quite punchy language that maybe suggests that the US, Lebanon and Israel are starting to knit against this. We'll see more talks in late June. There's not much trust between any the sides. And I think given the activity that we've seen this morning, I remain skeptical that anything will hold.

[Sophia Yan]

I think within the Lebanese government, a lot of people would agree with this statement from Rubio that Hezbollah is an enemy of Lebanon. Are they really thinking on behalf of the Lebanese people? But then again, you get the issue of the popular sentiment hardening against the Israelis. It's a really tough balance to strike. For the authorities in Lebanon, it always

[Venetia Rainey]

has been a story worth flagging from America. So the War Powers Resolution has been passed by the House of Representatives. They have told Trump that he needs to withdraw from Iran or else get approval from Congress. Is the first time there's been any formal political pushback in the US and it was sort of bipartisan, which is significant. So four Republicans crossed the aisle. They were from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky. So, you know, Middle America and they crossed the aisle to get it across the line. It's symbolic. This is not a binding resolution. And even if it is passed by Senate, the president has a veto, so we can assume it won't go anywhere. The White House also says that it's not actually involved in a war in Iran at the moment. It maintains that that war stopped when the ceasefire was declared. And Trump actually sent a letter to Congress on hit right on that 60 day deadline in the War Powers act saying the war is over. We also heard Rubio earlier this week saying the war is over. That's the message from the White House. So I don't think this will go anywhere.

[Sophia Yan]

You're right that it is symbolic, but it is worth noting that Republicans in Congress are now taking a stand against Trump. This is, in a way, a big step. We're just a few months now out from the midterm elections, which will be this fall, and Trump is under increasing pressure, first from his MAGA base regarding this war and also leading into this particular midterm elections. Whereas it's going to be a really important cycle to see whether the Republican Party, with Trump and the White House can still enjoy their majority. It's a big test for the president.

[Venetia Rainey]

And then, just finally, we wanted to flag the fact that the former head of MI6 here in Britain, Alex Younger, has died. Sophia, tell us a bit about him.

[Sophia Yan]

He died on Tuesday of cancer aged 62. Younger was the head of the Secret Intelligence Service MI6 from 2014 to 2020. He was its longest serving chief in 50 years. He joined back in 1991 after serving as a captain in the Scots Guards and went on to serve as station chief in Afghanistan during the US Led coalition against the Taliban. He also led counterterrorism work in the three years running up to London's 2012 Olympic Games. In recent years, he was very vocal about the Middle east and often was quite prescient in his comments. In 2024, he warned that Israel was locked in a shadow war with Iran and that would lead to widening regional conflict. This was him giving his verdict on the Iran war about a month into the conflict in a conversation with the economist Shashank Joshi for the Inside Defense podcast.

[Shashank Joshi]

Who has the upper hand right now?

Iran. I regret having come to this conclusion because like many MI6 officers of my generation, we've faced the violence and brutality of the IRGC for most of our careers.

[Brian Clark]

That's the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

[Shashank Joshi]

Yeah. So there is no love lost between us. And I shed no tears for Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the beginning of this war. But the reality is the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran. In practice, the Iranian regime has been more resilient than I think anyone would have expected. They took some good decisions, actually, as early as last June about dispersing their military capability and delegating the authority for the use of those weapons, which has given them significant extra resilience against this incredibly powerful air campaign. They have embarked on what's technically called horizontal escalation, that is firing rockets at anybody within range, which at the time, honestly, Shoshenk, I thought was nuts, but in fact has been a very good way of putting in direct price on the US Sort of worked. And then they've understood the significance of the energy war and held the straits at threat and globalized and essentially not internationalized, just globalized the conflict in a way that gives them some weapons. So, you know, they've played a weak hand pretty well. My second point is that Donald Trump has said some stuff that will have confirmed something they knew already, which is that they're in a civilizational war. In their terms, they're in a war of existence. Donald Trump made it very clear that he wanted to see them up against the wall, basically, whereas America has embarked on a war of choice. And in those terms I think that's imbued them with more staying power than their US counterparts. And they know that now. And I think that really is giving them the whip hand.

[Sophia Yan]

That was former MI6 boss Alex Younger speaking to the economist Shashank Joshi. Links to their full chat is in the show Notes.

[Venetia Rainey]

We're going to take a short break. Coming up afterwards, we're going to be looking at what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and a new secret passage that's opened up close to Oman.

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[Sophia Yan]

Welcome back. You're listening to Iran the Latest with me, Sophia Yan and Venetia Raney. Today we're speaking with Brian Clark. He's a retired Navy officer from the US and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank. We're speaking to him about what exactly is going on in the Strait of Hormuz where some vessels seem to be getting through. Thanks so much, Brian, for joining us today. There's some reports that US CENTCOM is helping ships to pass through Hormuz, that this has been happening for the last couple of weeks. They did say on Monday there was a statement from them, quote, the U.S. forces are not escorting. We continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz. What does this mean?

[Brian Clark]

So, Sophia, thanks for having me on the. On the pod. I think what's happening is the US Ships are guiding the shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the coast along Oman. Basically, it's the other side of the strait, so it's 20 miles or so from the Iranian coast. And what they can do is, because they've got sensors on board and they've, of course, got communications with centcom, and centcom's monitoring the Iranian coast, they can give the shipping an idea. Do the Iranians appear to be reacting? Do there. There appear to be threats emanating from Iran? Do we have small boats making their way out into the strait? So if we see any reaction on the part of the Iranians, you know, they could tell the shipping companies or the ships to turn back and won't. We won't try to make a run for it. But basically, they're providing that sensing layer that allows you to run the straight and understand whether there's any threats coming at you.

[Sophia Yan]

So providing safe passage in a way, to the extent that the U.S. military intelligence can offer.

[Brian Clark]

So what they're trying to avoid is the perception that they are defending the shipping. So when you say escort, that means you're going to protect the shipping from air missile attack, drone attack. And that kind of puts you on the hook to provide a level of force that would be able to defend the shipping, which is beyond what they want to do. Because if you really wanted to do that, it would take about a dozen destroyers in rotation, which would consume basically all the surface combatants that the Navy has in the region right now.

[Venetia Rainey]

So are there no military assets being dedicated to this? I saw reports that maybe some helicopters were also being deployed to help guide through.

[Brian Clark]

Yeah, so the helicopters, because they're higher, they can see farther over to the Iranian coast. And so if you're a destroyer, your radar is high enough to where you can. You can basically see almost to the Iranian coast with your radar. But if you wanted to see all the way into Iran a little bit, to see are there any missile launchers popping up over there or any shaheds, you know, coming out of a village somewhere, then you kind of need that elevated sensor. So the helicopters provide that higher height of eye, if you will, so you can see all the way into Iran. The helicopters are also good for shooting down shaheds, they tend to use rockets, this rocket called the apkws, or machine guns, even to shoot down the shaheds, if there were any that came out. They also obviously were used in the past to attack small boats that the Iranians have sent against the shipping. So helicopters are very useful. They can. And the US has been using, like, army helicopters launched from shore in Oman to do a lot of this work, because this is the kind of thing they're trained for, except they're usually doing it against tanks and trucks, but here they can do it against boats and drones.

[Sophia Yan]

There have been a few reports in the last one or two weeks of attacks around Hormuz. Is that what is happening, that the US Is trying to clear the space a bit?

[Brian Clark]

Yeah, I think what might be happening is the US Is responding to the Iranians reacting to the shipping, the stealth escorting, which is not really escorting. The Iranians probably notice it occasionally and are able to start to turn on their missile launchers and maybe start launching some drones to attack the shipping. And the US Retaliates against that. So they're not defending the shipping per se, they're attacking the sources of the threats that might go after the shipping. So it's a little bit. It's a different approach to how you might protect shipping, which doesn't require you to necessarily put ships between the enemy and the ship you're trying to protect. So it limits your risk. But it does have the effect of allowing some shipping to go through. But. But normally, if you want shipping companies and their insurers to feel confident in being able to use a waterway like that, you're going to have to put military ships out there and have them basically act as bodyguards for the shipping. And that's where the. That's kind of the line the US doesn't want to go over.

[Venetia Rainey]

And just remind us, at the narrowest point of the Strait of Palmuz, can you see across it? What kind of visibility is there?

[Brian Clark]

No, you can't. So it's like it's about 22 miles. And so a person standing on the shoreline, which there's some cliffs on both sides, you can see. You can kind of see maybe half to three quarters of the way across. And it's very. There's a lot of mist and dust in the air. So it's really. The visibility is very bad. So you generally cannot see all the way across the strait. Now, you can see in the distance some of the mountains on the Iranian side, but you can't really see all the water, what's happening. So you have to use radar or you have to have an elevated sensor or something to be able to see the other side of the strait.

[Sophia Yan]

And what's the volume of vessels that are now passing through with this sort of support from the U.S. well, of

[Brian Clark]

course, the data is sparse because the way these vessels are going through the strait is they hug the Omani coast and they turn off their AAS transponder. So the Iranians have been using the AIs as a source of intelligence to understand when ships might be trying to make their way through. And usually ships keep their AIs transponders there for safety because at least other ships will see that they're there and avoid them. So you turn your transponder off, and then they might even be doing this at night to try to avoid visual, because the Iranians will send spotters out. They'll send out small boats that look innocuous, but they're actually doing spotting for the irgc. So they might be doing this at night on the Iranian coast. Without transponders, there's maybe less. There's less information available to the Iranians to figure out when the shipping's actually going, but it also makes a little more dangerous passage for the shipping companies. So right now it looks like we're getting maybe three or four ships a day out via this method. And I think it's, you know, because they have to do it pretty slowly, and they have to do it in conditions where they're not able to take advantage of all their navigation aids that allow them to go more quickly, because normally they'll drive through the strait at, you know, 15 knots, 20. I mean, I've seen people driving through there at like 15 or 20 knots, which is pretty fast for a merchant ship. But I assume, given where they're doing these transits, they're only going maybe 5 or 10 knots.

[Sophia Yan]

Can you clarify the technical side of this? If they've turned off their AIs transponders, and how is the US able to track what's going on and know where those vessels are?

[Brian Clark]

That's why you have to be in communication with the ship. In the days before I ask you, you would actually just. You'd see a ship and you'd call them up and say, because they have the name of the ship on the side, you basically call them and say, you know, what are you doing? I'm going over here. Are you going over there? And that's essentially what they're doing here, is they have to just stay in communication with the ship to say vessel X, you know, are you going to make your way out this direction? And they probably have to work out some, you know, clandestine ways of communicating that the Iranians cannot also listen in on. So I suspect that the US has either worked out communication protocols that prevent the Iranians from listening in or has even provided radios to some of these ships that allow them to communicate directly with the US forces in a encrypted way. But that's. They're having to do it basically by directly communicating with them and conveying to them where they're going and maybe even sharing charts of where the route is that they've already verified to be clear of mines.

[Venetia Rainey]

Feels like we need a return to semaphores.

[Brian Clark]

Right? It's like the 21st century of that version of that. But yeah, it's basically you can't do broadcast communications in the same way that you could previously. Just because the Iranians would listen in on anything that you say.

[Venetia Rainey]

What exactly is getting through? You mentioned three to four a day. I saw the New York Times reporting 70 commercial ships over the last three weeks. That's roughly how that breaks down. Right, but that's nothing compared to what was it like 100 to 150 going through every day?

[Brian Clark]

About 100, yeah. About, depending on the day, 120 or so ships getting out. And the ones that are getting out seemed, I mean, it seems like it's the normal mix of ships. So it's container ships, some tankers and then some other transport ships that were just trapped in there because they. Imports come in that direction as well. So there's ships that offloaded material in the Gulf. And now we're trying to get there, get out so they could go get return to the shipping business. So some of them were empty ships that were just trying to get back out.

[Venetia Rainey]

Are certain nations being prioritized by the Americans?

[Brian Clark]

I don't know. They haven't said anything about that. I mean, so when Project Freedom happened,

[Venetia Rainey]

the short lived Project freedom of about 50 hours. Yes.

[Brian Clark]

Right. So that was. Those were two U.S. ships. And I think that was mainly because U.S. flagships were going to feel more confident operating under U.S. guidance because the U.S. navy is responsible for protecting U.S. flagships. So they knew that they would come to their defense even if they came under attack. So I think it's certainly US ships will probably get not made necessarily priority, but they're going to be the ones that are most willing to do this because they understand that they're going to get more protection than Maybe a foreign flagship would. And then I suspect the US is trying to prioritize the shipping of allies that don't have another arrangement. Right. So for example, China, India, Pakistan have all made separate arrangements with Iran to allow for safe passage. It's unlikely that the US is having to work with any of those countries, but certainly Japan, Korea and then there's a few US flagships in there. Those were all going to get priority, I assume, and unclear, but they haven't really said one way or the other which countries are benefiting from this. And the countries haven't said either because I think they're all trying to avoid getting tagged with being party to this. I think it's just interesting that you see this under the radar effort to get shipping out that could just continue. And, and the Iranians clearly don't necessarily like it, but they're also not going, you know, full bore to try to stop it. Right. So if the Iranians really wanted to stop this secret escort mission, they could send a bunch of small boats out there and really try to interfere with it. And they've chosen not to do that, I think, maybe because they're looking to not escalate the effort further. So they're threatening some kind of small scale attacks against the shipping in an effort to make it stop or at least to, to keep it from growing. But it seems like they're just trying to manage it as opposed to completely stop it.

[Venetia Rainey]

The reason I ask about sort of what's getting through in the numbers is this isn't a solution, is it, to the Strait of Hormuz crisis? It's an intriguing development, but it's not going to help the global energy crisis, the food crisis that's coming down the line.

[Brian Clark]

Yeah. So it's not a solution because clearly this is only a fraction, it's only 3 or 4% of what would normally get through. But you're already seeing supply chains start to evolve outside of Iran. I mean, countries are changing their buying patterns to get oil and gas from other customers or other suppliers, like the US or Venezuela is even benefiting from this. So I think you're seeing some shifts in the supply chains that reflect an expectation that this will continue to be a problem. Because I think if you're a customer of Gulf oil and gas products, you're thinking this is going to be an ongoing issue. Once the straight reopens to commercial traffic, there's always the potential for it being closed again by the Iranians kind of without notice. So how dependent do you want to be? On those supply chains. So you're having people and companies are starting to build more resilient supply chains. I think we're just not going to see those levels return, at least in the near future, if ever.

[Sophia Yan]

I was wondering. I mean, I was wondering about the sustainability of this. These ships transiting closer to the coast of Oman. You know, there's some thinking that Oman may have upset the Americans because they seem to have taken the side of the Iranians. That's the accusation. So how long could this be a possible route?

[Brian Clark]

I think the practicalities are that the Omani coast is the best place to transit if you're trying to avoid Iranian attacks. And I think the US Is just living with it, just sort of accepting the fact that Oman's just trying to navigate this situation as a smaller player in the region that doesn't have as many oil reserves or as large a military. And they've had to have a better relationship with Iran over the years just because they're the closest country to Iran and they've. They just have to kind of live with them as the closest neighbor. So I think it's largely practicalities that are driving this, rather than, you know, an ideological concern with regard to Oman's, you know, allegiance. You know, with Iran, I don't think there's any shared ideological DNA there. I think it's mostly the fact that they're just trying to. To live with a neighbor who's obviously a bad actor on the scene.

[Venetia Rainey]

Brian, can you just remind us of the picture of where US Naval forces are in the region? Am I right in thinking there are still no warships actually inside the Strait of Hormuz? And also, what are they up to? Is this all still focused on the blockade? The US Blockade?

[Brian Clark]

It's still focused on the US Blockade. So they're all operating out in the Gulf of Oman or in the Arabian Sea. So the Gulf, Oman, there's a little chunk of water that's just outside the Strait of Hormuz on the southern side. And then if you go beyond basically the line that goes between Oman and Iran at the southern tip there, then you go into the Arabian Sea, and that they're all operating out in that area to enforce the blockade that was against Iranian ports. So that's really their main focus at this point. So just sort of driving around, intercepting vessels that attempt to get in or out, which is not easy. Right. Because a lot of. Of these ships that might be trying to go in, it's unclear whether are they really going to an Iranian port Or not. And so the US Is having to make those determinations. It's a fairly cumbersome process that does require a fair number of ships and people to navigate.

[Venetia Rainey]

Are there still two carrier strike groups there?

[Brian Clark]

Yes.

[Venetia Rainey]

And what are all those troops doing? Is there like a time limit on how long they can stay up there, just roaming around?

[Brian Clark]

Yeah, because they're able, normally they do a seven month deployment and the Lincoln Strike Group, which came from the Pacific, is past that. Right. So they're already been extended, I think two months. So they're, they're getting towards like the nine month point. And the Ford was out there for 11 months. So you could keep, I could see that there, might, might keep the Lincoln out there for a couple more months. And then the other carrier strike group just got there, the Bush Battle Group. They just showed up as part of their normal deployment. So they're, they're going to be there. They could be there for seven months easily.

[Venetia Rainey]

Have you been out on the Strait of Formus yourself, Brent?

[Brian Clark]

Oh, yeah, yeah. Most people in the Navy have been there for what, because of course, we've been at war there for 20, 30 years now. So everybody in the Navy has pretty much spent time going through the Strait of Hormuz at one point or another in their career. So, and I'd been there, been through there multiple times as part of my last job in the Navy, which I was the, the special Assistant, the Chief of Naval Operations. And we would go out there to visit carriers and surface ships. And so we were out there on various carriers and amphibious ships and some destroyer or rather some cruisers during a couple of different, or I guess three different trips out there. So yeah, going and making those straight transits is pretty common. It's very, I mean, normally it's a very congested environment with a lot of Iranian, you know, trafficking and clearly shady operations happening day to day. And you'd see the IRGC boats out there on a daily basis. I mean, they would just be normally out there operating the fast boats, the little mini subs. We'd see them out there fairly frequently. So they were, they maintained a pretty high op tempo in the years preceding this. So I would say the ROGC's navy, which is what we call it, is a pretty capable force. At least it's operationally proficient. You know, it's very familiar with the region in a way that the ir, the IRA and the, the Iranian Navy is really not. I mean, they tend to operate outside this, outside the Persian Gulf and they deploy much less frequently. And so they're more of a, they're almost a kind of a show navy. They used to go and engage with other, other countries in, in various exercises or demonstrations. But the IRGC is really the kind of serious navy that thinks about closing the strait and you know, gaining control of the Persian Gulf. And you'd see them out there all the time. But it's, it's, you know, and it's just a very challenging environment. The water's very shallow, like I said, the visibility is very low and so it's very congested. So normally it's just a very difficult environment in which to try to protect yourself from these kind of small scale threats.

[Sophia Yan]

If it's not wartime, what kind of interaction might there be between the irgc, Navy and then the US Military in that part of the world?

[Brian Clark]

Well, they normally go out there and I mean they do faint attacks. I mean basically they're doing training so they're going out there and they're going to go drive around like they would if they were going to mount an attack against US Shipping. And you know, the Navy ships are basically providing training resources to the irgc. And you just have to get used to the fact that these guys are going to do these fake attacks or these fake attack runs and it's not really going to turn into an attack. But of course that's, you know, sometimes difficult to judge. This is really going to turn into a surprise attack or is this just a training exercise for them? And they also support the IRGC also has its whole business arm that it basically is a big part of the economy in Iran. So it does a lot of trafficking. So you'll see these IRGC boats also driving basically back and forth across the strait or across the Persian Gulf doing no doubt some illegal trafficking that supports their business interests. So you have to also contend with the fact that they drive around in this very unsafe manner as part of these trafficking activities. So it creates congestion and you know, just as a traffic hazard if nothing else.

[Venetia Rainey]

Brian Clark from the Hudson Institute, thanks very much for joining us on Iran the Latest.

[Brian Clark]

Oh, my pleasure. Great to talk to you.

[Sophia Yan]

That's all for today on Iran the Latest. Thank you for listening.

[Venetia Rainey]

We'll be back tomorrow. Until then, goodbye.

[Sophia Yan]

Goodbye.

[Venetia Rainey]

Around the Lake Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondence on the ground, sign up for our new daily newsletter Cables, or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address battleionselegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show. Notes the producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.

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