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- [00:04]
Venetia Rainey
The telegraph.
- [00:10]
Ben Green
This is Ben Green from the Athletic fc. Podcast marketers. No matter what pitch you play on, a big win feels the same electric. It's that moment when you read the play before the trend even starts. Beat the clock on a campaign with a little help from AI and connect with customers in real time like you've trained for it your whole career. That's Contentful world class digital experience. Experiences built fast, built beautifully create and launch personalized content in an instant across every channel your customers are watching. No chaos, no limits, just open field. Take your shot@contentful.com
- [00:49]
David Blair
Acast powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend
- [00:56]
Paige DeSorbo
hey guys, welcome to Giggly Squad, a place
- [00:59]
Hannah Ber
where we make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves.
- [01:01]
Paige DeSorbo
I'm Paige desorbo.
- [01:03]
Hannah Ber
I'm Hannah Ber.
- [01:04]
Paige DeSorbo
Welcome to the Squad.
- [01:05]
Hannah Ber
Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling during an inappropriate time,
- [01:09]
Paige DeSorbo
but of course we can't be managed
- [01:11]
Hannah Ber
so we decided to start this podcast to continue giggling.
- [01:14]
Paige DeSorbo
We will make fun of pop culture news. We're watching fashion trends pep talks where we give advice, mental health moments and games and guests.
- [01:23]
Hannah Ber
Listen to Giggly Squad on Acast or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:28]
David Blair
Acast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com Foreign.
- [01:42]
Venetia Rainey
I'm Venetia Raney and this is Iran. The latest it's Monday 20th of July 2026, day 29 of the 60 day deadline to reach a peace deal between the US and Iran and also the ninth consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and Iranian responses against the Gulf. On today's episode, we'll break down what happened over the most violent weekend of the war since the ceasefire was brokered. That includes the first American military deaths from direct Iranian fire since the opening days of the war. We'll be looking at how they were killed and what it will mean for this fast spiraling conflict. Plus, Saudi Arabia has been attacked by Iran for the first time in months and why the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas is being slowly cut off from the rest of the country. To discuss all of that and more, I'm joined in the studio by our chief foreign affairs commentator David Blair.
- [02:32]
Donald Trump
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [02:40]
Venetia Rainey
Today, President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks.
- [02:51]
David Blair
The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the street of Hormuz. Iran begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it, can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle east permanently?
- [03:07]
Venetia Rainey
Does anyone really think that someone can
- [03:09]
David Blair
tell President Trump what to do?
- [03:11]
Ben Green
Come on,
- [03:14]
Venetia Rainey
David. Welcome back on to around the Latest. We're going to do a sort of chat through of the weekend's news and then we'll just go a bit wider. There's loads of stuff I want to get your thoughts on. But let's just start by dialing our audience back to Friday. There were loads of American bombings. We knew they were targeting a bunch of bridges. What we know now is that they were trying to cut off Bandar Abbas, this port city where about half the country's trade comes ashore. So by Friday morning, the roads linking the city to the rest of the nation were broken, five bridges damaged, railway severed. This is quite significant, isn't it? Why are they targeting Bandara Abbas?
- [03:49]
David Blair
The only explanation that makes any sense is that they want to cut off Iran's main port city from the rest of the country. Now, it's a bit odd because they're blockading Iranian ports anyway, including Bandar Abbas. So nothing is entering or leaving Bandar Abbas by sea. They now seem to be cutting its land connections with the rest of the country. They could be preparing some kind of ground operation against Bandar Abbas. But if they're going to try and take a city with a population of more than half a million, that would be a huge operation. And we don't see any signs of wider preparation for that. And it seems unlikely, or perhaps they're going to try and besiege the place. I mean, it seems very strange. So I can't offer you an explanation.
- [04:35]
Venetia Rainey
It is also home to Iran's main naval base. So I guess within the sort of Strait of Hormuz logic that we see CENTCOM repeatedly citing, there's some kind of follow through there, as in if they disable this main naval base, maybe Iran can stop closing the Strait of Hormuz. We know it's a bit more complicated than that, but I suppose there's that logic.
- [04:53]
David Blair
A naval base that's already under naval blockade. Why does blowing up bridges nearby serve that purpose? It seems very strange. So I don't think we can do anything more than speculate about that.
- [05:06]
Venetia Rainey
Well, Iran responded furiously and they hit Jordan, specifically the Muwafak Salty air base in eastern Jordan. This is a really key US Military installation and more and more troops and assets have been based there over the course of this war. After the US Drew down from lot of their Gulf bases in advance of the Iran war and then continuously over the course of the Iran war to try and get stuff out of Iranian reach. This time, very significantly, we've had the first American military deaths since the very start of the war. So two SUS service members were killed, one remains missing. They have now found unidentified remains. So we expect that death toll to go up to three shortly. And Trump sort of referenced that over the weekend. Verified footage from inside the facility shows at least two impacts and an explosion suggestion that they were inside these sort housing bases which are not terribly well protected. And if that is true, would tell a similar story to what we saw in Kuwait where six service members died right at the beginning of the war. What do you make of why Iran is targeting Jordan so much? I mean, I mentioned a bit there that the, the assets and people are being redeployed. But what message is Iran trying to send?
- [06:11]
David Blair
Iran's message will be that wherever American soldiers are deployed in the Middle East, Iran can reach them. And as you say, America has been trying to limit its vulnerability by pulling its soldiers or personnel away from Gulf bases and concentrating them further away from Iran, like in Jordan. But what I find interesting is this seems to have been a precision strike. Precision strikes require precision data. Where is that coming from? Is Iran capable of supplying the kind of targeting data that you need for this sort of strike from its own capabilities, or are they getting help? And if they are getting help, well, there's only two countries that they could be getting that help from, and that would be Russia and China. But I would imagine the likelihood is that at least one of those countries is assisting these strikes.
- [07:04]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, we were talking about on Friday off the back of our colleague Tom Sharp writing a column about this, that the Chinese are allowing Iran access to a more encrypted version of their sort of GPS system for missiles and that it's allowing more Iranian missiles to get through. I guess the other side of this is American interceptor stocks are running low. We know they've been heavily depleted by the Iran war, although all the numbers are classified. But there's been quite a lot of reporting around sort of 50% for things like patriots and tads. So that will be a factor too, won't it?
- [07:34]
David Blair
Yes, it will. And remember that for 40 days of one of the most intense aerial bombardments in history, Iran's missiles were a key target. And the American Israeli objective was to diminish Iran's capability to carry out exactly these kinds of strikes. But here they are, the strikes are happening anyway and it just serves as a reminder of how difficult it is to disable a country's missile capability through air campaign alone.
- [08:04]
Venetia Rainey
Well, the Americans kept trying. So Central Command conducted more strikes overnight. Friday to Saturday. They hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities. Explosions were heard in the central city of Yazid, Kesham island, the port of Bandar Abbas again. And another hit on tunnels linking Bandar Abbas to the rest of the country, the Shahid Mizai tunnels. More attempts to cut it off. Local authorities also said an attack on electricity facilities and desalination pumps in a plant near Jasak had left about 10,000 people in 20 villages without drinking water. This is a theme we'll be returning to over the course of the weekend's violence. And apparently more than 100 telecommunications masks were knocked out of service in the northern Homogazon Province. What do you make of the legitimacy of these targets? We had Human Rights Watch coming out over the weekend saying, hits on a US Military base, that's part of war. Just as the Americans would consider a hit on an Iranian military base a legitimate target. But desalination plants, that's civilian infrastructure and shouldn't be hit. What do you make of that?
- [09:06]
David Blair
Well, I'm not a lawyer, but you're quite right. International humanitarian law restricts the targets that military operations can legitimately engage. There are gray areas, such as bridges, for example. If a bridge is being used for military purposes, then you could argue that it's compatible with dual use or dual use and so forth. It's very hard to make that case for desalination plants. So it's much more difficult.
- [09:35]
Venetia Rainey
And that cuts both ways, because then what Iran did was respond by targeting, again, US Allies in the Gulf, but particularly Kuwait, hit a power plant, a water distillation plant, and an oil facility. So the most significant damage was to this water desalination plant. According to the Kuwait authorities, it was the second attack on this particular plant in two days. And Kuwait depends on desalination for 90% of its drinking water. I think that's one of the highest statistics across the Gulf. But all of the countries, to an extent, rely on those sorts of facilities for their drinking water, particularly at this time of year, right?
- [10:05]
David Blair
You bet they do. These countries are only viable because of desalination plants. So by carrying out this strike, Iran is sending a signal, you know, if you want to start making civilian infrastructure a key target, well, we can play that game, too, and we can cause an awful lot of damage. But, you know, let's see whether either side actually goes down that road. Before we. Before we speculate too much.
- [10:31]
Venetia Rainey
The Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council said the attacks on Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain over the weekend were a grave violation of international law. Accused Tehran of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, constituting war crimes. We also saw on Saturday, although it's not clear what happened with this, the US Department of State issued a notice advising Americans worldwide, but particularly in the Middle east, to exercise increased caution. It issued alerts for a lot of its American embassies across the Middle East. So there's definitely a growing atmosphere of fear and as you say, a growing cost to Americans, both in military bases and potentially outside across the region, the sense that Americans might not be safe in the Middle east where they have so many of their military bases. So Iran is clearly trying to make the cost too high for America to keep its bases there. That's what it's saying. But do you think that's a plausible strategy? Is there any sense that Americans would actually start to shut down bases if we keep seeing this sort of escalation?
- [11:23]
David Blair
I'd be very surprised. That would be an extraordinary thing for the Americans to do. So, no, I don't think that's plausible. But Iran is demonstrating that it still has the capability, the missile capability, to impose costs upon its enemies. And it will be trying to deter America from further escalating the air campaign. Because so far, as you've recounted, America's airstrikes have been concentrated upon coastal targets near the Strait of Hormuz. There have been some strikes further inland. I think you mentioned Yazd earlier, but so far as I'm aware, there haven't been any further attacks on Tehran itself or on central government targets. So Iran will be trying to deter America from taking those escalatory steps.
- [12:11]
Venetia Rainey
Something else very interesting happened on Saturday in Iraq. Another American military member killed. Now, this is not being counted as a direct Iranian strike. They were killed during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian attack drone. So one service member killed and another is wounded, being treated for a minor injury. Apparently, the service member who was killed was not a bomb technician, but was just hit by debris or fragments when the drone was detonated. That's according to a US Official speaking to the New York York Times on condition of anonymity. It's just this sense that things are starting to get out of control. You know, you would think that you'll be able to detonate unexploded ordnance safely. Must be happening all the time. But this feels like A, I don't want to say a careless death, but very unfortunate. So that was Saturday. American attacks continue overnight Sunday as they have for the last week before. According to Iranian media, one of the things that was struck was a nuclear power plant that was under construction. This is in the southwestern city of Dakot Kovien as well as Kesham island. Also struck. The UN's nuclear watchdog has called for restraint, but it said that the site was in its very early stages and contained no nuclear material. During its last visit, Iran responded by firing again on Jordan. Missiles were shot down. A fourth fell in a remote area. Apparently Jordan summoned Iran's charge d' affaires to demand an immediate end to what the Foreign Ministry called unjustified and blatant Iranian attacks, insisting that its security was a red line that cannot be crossed. So a sense of deteriorating ties there. And interestingly Israel come on to this in a second. But Israel has not been involved so far and Iran has not targeted Israel. But it did have to fire several interceptors on Sunday after some debris from another interception I think landed in Eilat, was found near the southern port city of Eilat. So no damage or injuries reported from that. But that's the first hint we've had of Israel having to get involved in some way in this latest bout of fighting. And very significantly, Saudi Arabia was targeted. Now the Iranians didn't claim this, but we know it's true because the Saudis have confirmed that interceptors were fired. So three things were targeted in Saudi Arabia on July 19. On Sunday, ballistic missile targeting the Prince Sultan Air base in Al Qaj. This is the US Saudi joint facility south of Riyadh. And it's where around 2,300 US military personnel are stationed alongside Saudi air defence assets. A second ballistic missile targets the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. As we know, that's very significant because that's where the Saudis are getting their oil out now because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for so long. It's the western terminus of this east west oil pipeline. And then the third attack, and this was a one way attack. Drone, a Shahed Star drone on the Samref refinery, also in Yambu. Apparently minimal damage. Exports continue uninterrupted. The drone managed to evade the air defence umbrella. The two ballistic missiles were intercepted. What do you make of that? Both the attack on Saudi Arabia and the fact that Iran didn't formally acknowledge it.
- [15:09]
David Blair
I think the most significant thing is the strike on Yambu because there what the Iranians are trying to do is close off the alternative export route that Saudi Arabia is using to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They've got this pipeline, as you mentioned, it terminates at Yambu, where they've got an export terminal. And that, I understand, is now the main route. In fact, probably the only route for Saudi Arabia to get its oil out to the market. So for Iran to target that effectively, they're saying, we're going to try and stop you using your one and only alternative. Why they didn't acknowledge it publicly. They're often reluctant to acknowledge attacking a big country with the capacity to hit back, like Saudi Arabia. In the past, they've done that kind of thing through proxies, principally through the Houthis in Yemen. Now they're doing it directly, but they're keeping quiet about it because they don't want to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to respond. So from their point of view, from Iran's point of view, the optimal outcome is they carry out these attacks, but Saudi Arabia doesn't join the war. And the best way of maximizing the chance of that happening is to just keep quiet about the attacks. But, of course, the Saudis know full well what's going on.
- [16:26]
Donald Trump
Yeah.
- [16:28]
Venetia Rainey
So then more strikes overnight. And we're now into Monday morning. So we're on the ninth consecutive night of US Strikes on Iran. CENTCOM says it targeted Iranian military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, communication networks to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and Safilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump was speaking last night and he said this latest round of strikes were in honor of the soldiers killed in Jordan. This was him speaking to reporters last night after landing at the Joint Base Andrews following the World Cup Final on Sunday.
- [17:01]
Donald Trump
Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran has been very, very badly damaged. They've lost everything, almost militarily. They've got very little left. They've got some missiles, they've got some drones, they've got some manufacturing ability. Not much. We control the strait. They don't control anything. So we'll see what happens. But we hit him very hard again tonight, and we did that in honor of the probably three. It's probably three, as opposed to two great patriots.
- [17:34]
Venetia Rainey
According to Iran, cities have been hit include Tabriz, Chabahar, Konarak, Bandahar, Mahasha Bandar, Imam Khomeini. And Iran said it responded by attacking Syria, Jordan's Aqaba airport. US Aircraft There and Kuwait and Bahrain, where we've continued to hear air sirens this morning. So we've had this tit for tat escalation nine days and nights in a row. Now, is this going to just continue? What's the logic here? Can you see the logic here? Where are we trying to get to?
- [18:05]
David Blair
Well, let's look at it from the perspective of each of the belligerents. So from Iran's perspective, this is all about maintaining their grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which they see as their main strategic gain from the 40 Day War, the first round of this war that concluded with the ceasefire on April 8. And they believed that that was under threat because America and Oman had jointly opened up the southern route, as they call it, for ships to go through the Strait, which was not under Iranian
- [18:40]
Venetia Rainey
control and was working quite well, and ships were starting to work quite well.
- [18:44]
David Blair
So Iran felt that in order to maintain its grip, it had to stop that route, which is why on July 7, it attacks those three tankers that we're trying to get through. So America responds. But we just observe for a moment, in its own terms, Iran's actions, in their own terms have some logic. They're designed to maintain the grip on the straight of Hormuz. America's objective here is much less clear. What are they trying to do? Are they trying to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz? All right, well, that's a coherent objective. But why would simply bombing achieve that objective? You know, where is the link here between your means and your ends? Because after all 40 days of really intense bombing, 13,000American airstrikes, another 10,000 or so from, from Israel between February 28th and midnight on April 7th, you know, ended with Iran actually in control of the Strait of Hormuz de facto. So why would some more nights of bombing change that? And that's where I don't really understand what the Americans are attempting to do. Or are they simply attempting to say to Iran, look, every time you hit tankers, we will impose a price, and you have to decide whether you're prepared to pay that price. And we're hoping that it's probably that.
- [20:12]
Venetia Rainey
I think it's that, because CENTCOM statements, and I'm interested to see if you buy this logic, CENTCOM statements always references, you know, ensuring the freedom of navigation of innocent mariners in the Strait of Hormuz. So they are desperately trying to constantly link it back to this one issue and not make it a wider war. Yes, although it does feel like it's heading in that direction.
- [20:30]
David Blair
So this is probably a straightforward exercise in America imposing a price for Iranian interdiction of tanker traffic through the strait. All right, fair enough. You can do that. The problem there is that Iran may have a very high willingness to pay a price. They may be prepared to pay a very high price indeed. And all the while that this is going on, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with very obvious risks to the global economy. Now Iran is exporting any oil either because all the while this is going on, their ports are blockaded. So Iran's losses are very substantial. But the question is, who has the greater tolerance of pain? Is it Iran's regime tolerating the immense costs that we've just detailed, or is the world economy going to suffer more from the closure of the strait? So in a sense, this is a staring match between America and Iran. And the question is, who blinks first?
- [21:29]
Venetia Rainey
We saw reports this morning a vessel on fire just off the coast of Oman according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations that monitors these things. Causal fire, not verified at the time of recording, but sounds to me like another Iranian attack on a ship that was trying to get through. You know, we don't know. But if Iran is continuing to attack ships even while this escalating series of campaigns is going on, it's not working. I guess we're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after the break, how the US military death toll reached 18 and what it will mean for the midterms.
- [22:07]
Ben Green
This is Ben Green from the Athletic FC Podcast. Marketers. No matter what pitch you play on, a big win feels the same electric. It's that moment when you read the play before the trend even starts. Beat the clock on a campaign with a little help from AI and connect with customers in real time like you've trained for it your whole career. That's contentful. World class. Digital experiences built fast, built beautifully create and launch personalized content in an instant across every channel your customers are watching. No chaos, no limits, just open field. Take your shot@contentful.com everyone's talking about protein
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- [23:16]
Venetia Rainey
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran the latest with me, Venetia Rainey. And I'm in the studio with David Blair, our chief foreign affairs commentator. We should talk about the death toll because this is significant now. The US military death toll is now 18. We expect that to climb to 19 shortly after they identify the remains of this missing victim in Jordan. And I just wanted to run back through that for our audience. So six were killed in an attack on a Kuwait US base on March 1st. A seventh died on March 6th, a medical emergency. An eighth died on March 7th, and that was from injuries sustained during another attack on March 1st on American troops in Saudi Arabia. So that was right at the beginning of the war. Those were the sort of military deaths. Six service members were killed when a refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq. You might remember they didn't classify that as officially a sort of conflict death, but of course, they were involved in the war in some way. One crew member from a US Seahawk helicopter that had to make an emergency water landing on July 1st went missing at the time, has since been declared dead. And then over the weekend, two in Jordan, we expect shortly, three, and one in Iraq from detonating that drone. More than 400 US service members have been injured over the course of the Iran conflict. That's according to centcom. Now, the Pentagon has stopped releasing the number of injured on a regular basis over the last few weeks, but clearly that number is still climbing. There's not much transparency around people who were injured over the weekend, but clearly people were injured. What cost do you think that climbing death toll is going to start having for Trump at home?
- [24:48]
David Blair
Well, Trump's main calculation when it comes to casualties will be the reality that if he were to commit forces on the ground, then casualties would climb very strong, strongly. He would probably think that by the standards of a war which is now stretched with some breaks for nearly four months, a death toll of the kind that you're talking about is by historical standards still very low. But what would change that would be if he mounted any kind of ground operation. So when he talks about, as he did the other day, capturing Kharg island, which, which he's spoken of on a number of occasions since this whole episode began, that can only involve ground forces. And the moment you do that, the risk of casualties climbs appreciably.
- [25:35]
Venetia Rainey
Do you think it's very unlikely for that reason?
- [25:37]
David Blair
Yes, I think it probably is. But who can tell with this president? There's no point Attempting to forecast what he might do next.
- [25:47]
Venetia Rainey
We should say that Iranian casualties also climbing. So at least 50 have been killed and more than 500 injured in US strikes over the past few weeks. That's according to the Iranian Health Ministry. Total Iranian casualties over this course of this war, the numbers vary wildly, but 3,500, according to the Martyrs foundation, the human rights group documents around 3,600. US and Israeli intelligence estimate over 6,000 dead. The biggest death toll remains the strike on the elementary school in Minab on 28 February, where at least 156 people were confirmed dead, including 120 schoolchildren. And a reminder that we are still waiting for the Pentagon to release its official investigation into that. That attack. How is this going to keep evolving? We're seeing increasing reporting that Trump is preparing for a wider war. The Washington Post was reporting that today. An official speaking to them said planning for a wider war. But we do not have enough interceptor missiles to safely sustain operations. And I don't think the White House is aware of that. Are we starting to see a disconnect between the sort of escalation trap that American military forces are locked in and an actual plan to achieve an actual goal?
- [26:56]
David Blair
Yes. I think it's worth remembering that at the beginning, the Americans and the Israelis, too, believed this would be a short war, and they only prepared for a short war. So that's why Trump, for example, did not send enough U.S. warships to the region to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz stayed open. That's why the ships that he sent were sufficient to attack Iran, but not much more than that. Now, a long war, such as we're seeing now, is a completely different character and totally different demands from the kind of brief campaign that was planned for, the kind of logistical buildup you need, the refueling capacity, the interceptor stocks, the ammunition stockpiles, all this is completely different. And clearly they're trying to build that up. Now, the second point, and this is it's important to remember there'll be an awful lot of signaling now. The Americans will put an awful lot of facts and assessments and views out into the media designed actually to put pressure on Iran and make Iran guess if we don't attempt to do a deal now, will the war escalate? Will there be a wider war? So there'll be a psychological campaign in parallel with the real kinetic campaign. And we should always bear that in mind when we read these anonymous sources briefing the American media that X or Y or Z might happen.
- [28:21]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, that's a good reminder There is a concrete suggestion that might be heading for a wider war, though. New York Times is reporting that Air Force F16 fighter jets from Germany and F35 jets from the UK are being sent to the region along with additional aerial refueling aircraft, which gets to that point that you mentioned. And we do have a listener who always reminds us to look at, you know, all of the assets that go around to support a military operation. If they're moving in that direction, then people mean business. It's not clear where all of these additional warplanes are going to be stationed, but an Israeli military official who spoke on condition of a non anonymity, told the New York Times that they decided to place some of them at Israeli Air Force bases. We've also had a couple of which
- [29:01]
David Blair
would make a lot of sense because they're the best protected air force bases in the whole of them, at least
- [29:06]
Venetia Rainey
because Israel has not yet been attacked in this round of fighting. We were speaking to some people last week about why that might not be a suggestion, that Trump has told Netanyahu to stay out of it because he doesn't want to escalate things any further. What do you make of Israel not being involved and Iran not attacking Israel?
- [29:23]
David Blair
Well, I think the latter point is most significant. Iran has not yet, since this flare up of fighting began, targeted Israel, and that's because they were preferring Israel to stay out. America also wants Israel to stay out. Israel may want Israel to stay out too. So for once, everyone's interests are aligned on one point, which is they want Israel to stay out of the war so far. But of course we should qualify that. For all we know, that could change at any moment. All it would take would be for Iran to target Israel with one salvo of missiles and then I suspect that the risk of Israel joining in would be high.
- [29:59]
Venetia Rainey
Why does Iran not want Israel to take part, its longtime sworn enemy? Everything's always about the Zionist regime, blah, blah, blah. Why not?
- [30:06]
David Blair
Why be bombed by two air forces when you're currently being bombed by one? Fair enough. Yeah, probably as simple as that.
- [30:14]
Venetia Rainey
That makes sense. Yeah, that makes sense. So what's left of this peace deal? We've been tracking how many days we are into the 60 day deadline. We're now at day 29. So nearly halfway through the 60 day deadline, Marco Rubio said over the weekend that the US Always remains open to a diplomatic solution. He said the world has to decide whether or not it's going to allow an international waterway to be under the control of Iran. And we also had a statement, interestingly, from Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtab Al Khamenei, who we haven't seen yet. He issued a written statement that was read out on Iranian tv. He accused America of repeated breaches of the agreement and said it had laid bare a fundamental truth. The signature of the US President is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility. He said the US Is escalating the conflict and said Iran had unforgettable lessons in store for America.
- [30:58]
David Blair
Well, belligerent rhetoric of that kind is well known in the Middle east and elsewhere as well. But I think it's worth noting what Khamenei says there about America's signature not being worth anything, because if he means that, then there's no hope for diplomacy at all. As for what Rubio said, the world needs to decide whether it's content for Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz. I would simply observe that before America and Israel started this war, there wasn't a particular problem with the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait was open traffic and ships were going through without asking permission from Iran or anyone else. So this is a problem that has arisen from the situation that America and Israel jointly created. The second point about Rubio's remarks, it may well be that America is open to a diplomatic solution, but the Memorandum of Understanding wasn't really a deal because it didn't actually resolve anything. As we analyzed at the time, no issue really was finally resolved. And to the extent that anything was resolved, it tended to be in Iran's favor rather than in America's favor. And the crucial point about the status of the Strait of Hormuz,.5 of the memorandum of Understanding, which deals with that, is very vague and in some ways contradictory, hence the renewed outburst of fighting.
- [32:22]
Venetia Rainey
Do you think Rubio is trying to put the ball in the world's court? You know, this is your problem, too. You guys have to come in and help us. We know Trump has been furious and has voiced it repeatedly that NATO won't come in and help solve the Strait of Hormuz issue. Do you think we're going to see a repeater, sort of calls for European allies to come in and do something because the Americans can't figure it out?
- [32:40]
David Blair
Yes, but at the same time, when America launched this war, they made no attempt to include their allies or plan for their involvement or even ask for their involvement. So it's to come along nearly four months later and say, this is the world's problem. You know, can they help us to solve it? You know, it's a bit late and the world might well reply, well, it's a problem that you helped create.
- [33:04]
Venetia Rainey
Do you think we're sliding into a forever war? It's hard to see how this, you know, we all, we all thought it was really, truly winding down and yet it's flared back up again so quickly. This bout of fighting will end in some form or another. But as you say, the mou, what little there was to it, feels even more out of grasp now to reach something like that again, the patience of the mediating countries like Pakistan and Qatar must be wearing a little thin. And it seems like both sides are hardening, you know, increasingly belligerent rhetoric. I struggle to see how we'll get both sides back round the table to agree. Anything that either can trust the other on?
- [33:46]
David Blair
Yes, I mean, I think you're right that this round of fighting will come to an end in some form. The mediators will continue mediating because why not? The cost to them from doing so are not very high. Genuine efforts will still be made. America can't continue this sort of bombing campaign indefinitely at its current tempo because it doesn't have the stockpiles, etc. You know, Iran can't continue, continue firing missiles at the current rate because it's highly unlikely they've got a big enough arsenal to do that.
- [34:18]
Venetia Rainey
And its economy also highly stimulated.
- [34:21]
David Blair
And Iran can't survive forever exporting no oil at all. So in the end, the pressures will tell. They'll tell on America too, because the global economy can't survive the Strait of Hormuz being closed. And something will be cobbled together to bring this to an end when that might happen. No won't. One can tell. And as you say, it may be followed by a flare up later. So I think the most likely prognosis is that the countries of the region will now quietly begin to work seriously on breaking their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz by building alternative infrastructure. Saudi Arabia already has an alternative export route, the famous east west, or now famous east west pipeline to Yambu. The. They can upgrade its capacity. The UAE has a pipeline to Fujairah which bypasses the strait. Again, it's of limited capacity today, but they can build that up.
- [35:13]
Venetia Rainey
And I think they're building another oil export terminal at that port.
- [35:16]
David Blair
Yeah, right. And the Gulf states specialise in mega projects. The energy industry globally specialises in mega projects.
- [35:25]
Venetia Rainey
If anyone's got the money to find
- [35:26]
David Blair
alternative solutions, these crises will. The lesson of these crises is that it will pay to break your dependence on the Strait. It will take time, of course, but it will probably happen in the end. When it does happen, Iran will lose its great strategic card today. So you can make a very good argument to say that what Iran is doing now makes sense in the short term, but in the long term may actually be self defeating.
- [35:56]
Venetia Rainey
David Blair thanks for joining us on around the Latest. That's all for today's episode. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye. Around the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our Dispatchers newsletter, or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest we're still on the same email address battle lineselegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes the producer is Max Bauer, the Executive Producer is Louisa Wells.
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