Trump weighs major escalation as Iran hammers Kuwait’s power and water

Summary

Iran: The Latest

Episode: Trump weighs major escalation as Iran hammers Kuwait’s power and water
Date: July 21, 2026
Host: Venetia Rainey
Guests: Arthur Scott-Geddes (Global Health Security Desk, former co-host), David Blair (Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator)

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth analysis of the ongoing conflict escalation between the US and Iran following Donald Trump’s declaration ending the ceasefire. Covering the recent US strikes on Iran, retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz, regional implications from Lebanon to Yemen, and the UK’s changing political landscape with Andy Burnham as prime minister, the episode combines on-the-ground reporting with strategic insights.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. New Escalation in the US-Iran Conflict

[02:05–05:34]

• US Military Strikes:

  • The US Central Command targeted Iranian command and control centers, missile and drone launch sites, maritime assets, and air defense systems, focusing on southern Iran (including Shiraz, Dash Cord, Bandar Abbas).
  • The operation lasted about five hours and aims to “degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz” (Arthur, 03:35).

• Impact Inside Iran:

  • Signs of pressure on Iran’s leadership emerge, with President Masoud Possesskian warning that economic strain from the conflict could spark domestic unrest.
  • “The economy and people's livelihoods are Iran's main battlefield.” — Arthur quotes President Possesskian (04:36).

• Intelligence Updates:

  • Israeli intelligence claims Iran moved thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges into tunnels under Pickaxe Mountain after last year’s 12-day war, raising nuclear concerns (Arthur, 04:41–05:25).

2. Iranian Retaliation in the Gulf

[05:34–10:44]

• Attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan:

  • Bahrain: Four missile/drone strikes targeting Sheikh Issa air base; IRGC claims strikes on Amazon Web Service data centers, potentially undermining critical digital infrastructure.
  • Jordan: Multiple missiles and drones intercepted, following a deadly attack on a Jordanian air base that killed US service members, with around 100 US personnel injured over two weeks (Venetia, 07:31).
  • Kuwait: Strikes on radar, communication centers, and notably repeated attacks on power and desalination plants, leading to fires and disruption of civilian infrastructure. Noted as “the fourth consecutive day of strikes on those sorts of things” (Venetia, 08:20).

• Quote:

  • “Interesting how this kind of infrastructure seems to be increasingly being targeted.” — Arthur (08:49)

• Assessment:

  • The attacks appear both punitive and disruptive, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure to “drive up the cost for these countries of being involved in the war hosting American bases” (Venetia, 06:35).

3. Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis

[09:16–10:44]

• Maritime Attacks:

  • Two tankers attacked in the Strait, following attacks on Malta- and Liberia-flagged tankers earlier in the week. Shipping through the Strait has decreased significantly (Arthur, 09:56).

• Impact:

  • Brent crude prices spike above $90 a barrel due to supply fears.
  • IRGC message: “...as long as America's mischief in the region continues, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and not even one drop of oil or gas, nor a single shipment of chemical fertilizer will be exported from the area." — IRGC statement (Arthur, 10:12–10:44).

• Host’s Analysis:

  • US airstrikes have not deterred Iran’s maritime capabilities, suggesting the escalation ladder is not yielding its intended results (Venetia, 10:44).

4. Ceasefire Negotiations and US Options

[10:44–14:23]

• Proposed Mini-Ceasefire:

  • Mediators (Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan) propose a 10-day mini-ceasefire. The Iranian Interior Minister is in Pakistan for talks (Venetia, 11:10).

• US Posture:

  • Trump expresses willingness to keep talking, but military preparations for further escalation ("to go in harder") are underway, including the movement of fighter jets and refueling planes into Israel and requests to base aircraft in Bulgaria (Venetia, 12:28–13:46).

• Logistical Insights:

  • Email from listener Robert Campbell highlights the enormous support and commitment required for forward-basing US tanker aircraft in Israel (Venetia, 13:14).

5. Regional Widening and Proxy Actors

[15:05–18:56]

• Israel’s Position:

  • While Israel states it has “no interest in joining the campaign,” IDF is on high alert (Venetia, 15:05).

• Houthis Escalate in Yemen:

  • Announcement of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and closure of the Bab el Mandeb Strait to Saudi vessels, threatening to expand the shipping crisis.
  • Bab el Mandeb’s strategic significance as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is emphasized (Arthur, 15:33–16:41).
  • The closure is seen as either an Iranian effort to expand the conflict or as Houthi deterrence against Saudi airstrikes (Arthur, 17:36).

• Risks:

  • Potential reignition of the Yemeni civil war, as the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition remain at odds (Arthur, 18:05).

6. Lebanon: De-Escalation Initiatives

[18:56–21:31]

• Pilot Zone Scheme:

  • Israeli military withdraws from certain villages in south Lebanon, enabling the Lebanese Army to move in and prevent Hezbollah from regaining territory.
  • Aim is incremental Israeli withdrawal and gradual Hezbollah disarmament, with U.S. support (Venetia, 19:33).

• Progress and Peril:

  • Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is in the US for critical meetings.
  • Hezbollah remains outside the agreement; continued arms interceptions at the Syria-Lebanon border suggest fighting is not over.
  • “There is more political will to deal with the Hezbollah issue in Lebanon than there has been for a very long time.” — Venetia (21:39)
  • "This is still very much a live conflict. Plenty of things can go wrong." — Venetia (23:09)

7. Iranian Leadership and Internal Dynamics

[23:20–24:04]

• President Possesskian states increased communication and guidance from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since the war began.
• Indications that leadership is consolidating internally, perhaps moving away from previous attempts at a peace deal with the US (Arthur, 23:20–24:04).

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UK Political Shift: What Does Andy Burnham Mean for the Middle East?

[26:17–38:23]
Guest: David Blair, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator

1. First Moves: UK-US Relations

• Burnham’s First Call:
  • Warm conversation with President Trump, discussing UK-US relations, military cooperation, demining operations in the Hormuz Strait, and an invitation to Manchester for the 2027 G20.
• Quote:
  • "The Prime Minister has got a big job ahead of him, but he'll be able to do it. And, of course, the USA will be there to help." — Donald Trump (27:32)

2. UK Policy on Iran War

• UK fundamentally opposes US Iran war, a break with precedent.
• Prior government allowed limited US use of British bases for key operations, mainly to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
• The likely outcome is continued pragmatic cooperation, with Burnham expected to maintain basing rights (David, 28:23).

3. Cabinet Changes and Foreign Policy Prospects

• Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary:

  • Criticized for past opposition to action in Syria—"one of the great foreign policy misjudgments" (David, 31:22).
  • Little expected change in UK's broader Middle East stance—limited influence on events, continuity anticipated.

• Wes Streeting as Defence Secretary:

  • No direct defense or military experience, but considered to have the necessary political weight to argue for increased defense spending.

• John Healey as Chancellor:

  • Former Defense Secretary now controls the Treasury, known for advocating more defense spending; potential reforms to fund military from welfare budget.

• Overall Outlook:

  • “Very little [will change]. I suspect nothing will change in respect of Britain's support for Ukraine or NATO or anything like that. So I suspect the general picture will be one of continuity.” — David Blair (38:07)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On targeting infrastructure:

  • "Iran definitely targeting civilian infrastructure and again just trying to drive up that cost them being involved." — Venetia Rainey (08:54)

• On shipping disruption:

  • “This is basically Iran trying to continue to force ships to transit through its territorial waters.” — Arthur (10:12)

• On Lebanon pilot zone:

  • "This is all backed by the U.S... Lebanese army has issued a statement this morning confirming the deployment of its troops" — Venetia (19:33)

• On Houthi escalation:

  • “One of the key questions now, I suppose, is how successfully the Houthis might be able to enforce this blockade on Saudi Arabia.” — Arthur (16:43)

• On Iranian leadership:

  • “With increased communication and greater access to our beloved leader, all actions are organized according to his guidelines.” — President Masoud Possesskian, as quoted by Arthur (23:20)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamps (MM:SS) | |---------|--------------------| | US air strikes and Iranian leadership crisis | 02:05–05:34 | | Iranian retaliatory attacks in Gulf | 05:34–10:44 | | Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks | 09:16–10:44 | | Ceasefire negotiations & American options | 10:44–14:23 | | Regional escalation (Israel, Yemen, Lebanon) | 15:05–23:09 | | Internal Iranian power dynamics | 23:20–24:04 | | UK policy with new PM Andy Burnham | 26:17–38:23 |

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Conclusion

This episode offers sweeping coverage of a rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis, with sharp insights on the military, diplomatic, and economic dimensions of the US-Iran escalation, the resilience and adaptation of regional actors (Iran, proxies, Israel, Gulf states), and the cautious pragmatism underlying UK foreign policy with a new government. The takeaway: the conflict is fluid, diplomatic off-ramps remain tenuous, and the global implications — oil prices, security arrangements, and nuclear risks — remain front and center.

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For those who haven't listened, this summary presents the detailed contours and energy of the conversation while capturing the urgency and complexity reported by The Telegraph's correspondents and experts.

Transcript

[Venetia Rainey]

The telegraph.

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[Venetia Rainey]

I'm Venetia Rainy and this is Iran. The Latest It's Tuesday, 21st of July 2026, the 10th day of this latest round of the war since Donald Trump declared the US Iran ceasefire over. On today's episode, we'll be looking at the latest strikes amid fresh proposals for a mini ceasefire. Over in Lebanon, Israel has begun withdrawing from parts of the south, and in Yemen, the Houthis are becoming more active. Plus, what will the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's approach to the Iran war be? A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

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Today, President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader,

[Mary and Courtney from Two Judgy Girls]

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks.

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The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force

[Venetia Rainey]

the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it. Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle east permanently?

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Does anyone really think that someone can

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tell President Trump what to do?

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Come on,

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Arthur.

[Venetia Rainey]

Scott Geddes, the deputy editor on the Global Health Security desk and my former co host for the Global Health Security Battle Lines podcast of an older yesteryear. Nice to have you back in the studio with us.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Thank you for having me.

[Venetia Rainey]

So, we're going to run through the news together and we're going to start with what's been happening in Iran overnight. What have the Americans said they've struck?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

So the US Central Command says it struck Iranian military command and control centres, launch sites for missiles and drones, maritime targets and air defense systems. This latest round of US strikes lasted about five hours, apparently, according to the US military and Iranian media. Reports suggest that they've been concentrated in the south of the country. So strikes were reported in several cities, including Shiraz Dash Cord and Bandar Abbas. Washington, sort of, as always, says it's attempting to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. But interestingly, inside Iran, there are some signs that the strikes are beginning to exert some pressure on the leadership. So some senior officials now appear to be worried that the renewed conflict this last 10 days is going to deepen Iran's economic problems. President Massoud Possesskian warned in a Supreme Judicial Council meeting yesterday that economic pressure could generate social discontent and damage the public support that the regime has gained since the war broke out. So he said that the economy and people's livelihoods are Iran's main battlefield.

[Venetia Rainey]

Now, that's fascinating. Cost of living crisis, basically. It's always the economy. Stupid, isn't it?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Exactly. So. However, the Washington Post is reporting on a new U.S. intelligence assessment which suggests that these American strikes won't significantly impact Iran's negotiating stance. And then I just wanted to flag another update from elsewhere on the intelligence front. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Israeli spies believe Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges, that's for refining uranium, into a network of tunnels beneath Pickaxe Mountain. That's that facility that Donald Trump mentioned last week. It's about 140 miles south of Tehran. Trump said the US was watching it very closely.

[Venetia Rainey]

Yeah, Pickaxe Mountain. It's something we need to do a whole podcast about at some point, because it's one of the strikes that Trump hasn't targeted over course of this war yet, but it does seem to be keeps cropping up at the moment.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Exactly. So the Israelis apparently passed that information on to the Americans and they also claim that the centrifuges were moved there after the 12 day war last year.

[Venetia Rainey]

Okay, fascinating. Well, we should also bear in mind what David Blair was telling us yesterday, that there's going to be a lot of claims and counterclaims to try and influence negotiations. So if we ever see anything from an unnamed source, we should keep our eye on skepticism around us. So as we've seen repeatedly over the last 10 days, Iran has responded to all of that by striking Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. So US Military sites in those gulf countries. No reports of damage yet, but I think we might get some over the course of today. So let's just start with Bahrain. Sirens of Bahrain has sounded four times over the past 24 hours. Bahrain's military says it's intercepted a number of Iranian attacks after drone attacks were targeting the Sheikh Issa air base. Now the IRGC has also claimed it targeted infrastructure belonging to the American company Amazon with a cruise missile. No official confirmation from Bahrain around this, but it's interesting and it wouldn't be the first time the IRGC also targeted Amazon Web service data centers. Basically this isn't to do with like shipping, you know, shoes and toys and stuff. This is the stuff like the infrastructure of the Internet basically. And so on March 1, Shahed drones directly struck two of these data centers in the UAE and a third in Bahrain. And at the time it caused really massive disruption to financial enterprise and consumer digital services in the UAE and the wider region. RUSI thinks it's highly likely that Iran is targeting this infrastructure specifically and that they're really trying to get into this and again just increase the cost for these countries of being involved in the war hosting American bases. So that's one to keep an eye on in terms of whether we see actual damage has come out of it. Moving on to Jordan, Jordanian state TV has reported three missiles were launched from Iran overnight and they'd all been intercepted. Sirens were sounding in the capital of Oman on yesterday evening. I don't know if we've had that before. I haven't seen it, but I might have missed it. Jordanian military said it also shot down five drones. Iran has said it's been targeting a US base, an anti missile radar system and a plane in a hangar. All of this comes after Jordan has been intensely attacked over the last week. We had two American service members killed And a third whose I think remains are yet to be identified after an attack on a Jordanian air base in the east last week. The Pentagon has released fresh numbers of those injured in response to a New York Times request yesterday that they were withholding numbers around this. They said nearly 100American service members have been injured over the past two weeks of escalating strikes. That's quite significant. They did say the majority of those injured only experienced minor concussions and 96% have since returned to work. Still, a minor concussion is still a concussion. And of course it's fuelling concerns that American troops are not properly protected or that Iranians are increasingly finding ways to get through.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

That's right, isn't it? It shows how difficult it is for the US to protect its big network of facilities all around the Middle East.

[Venetia Rainey]

Third country in the Gulf that was targeted, Kuwait. IRGC claimed to have targeted a long range radar, a communication centre, an anti missile radar, drone hangars and more. Kuwait has said that Iran attacked its power and desalination plants, again causing damage to these facilities. That's the fourth consecutive day of strikes on those sorts of things. Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity and Water and Renewable Energy said they caused fires at a number of critical sites. Those have been extinguished, the damage is assessed and repairs are ongoing. That's according to the Kuwait Ministry. Keep an eye on that.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Interesting how this kind of infrastructure seems to be increasingly being targeted.

[Venetia Rainey]

Yeah, Iran definitely targeting civilian infrastructure and again just trying to drive up that cost them being involved. Kuwait in particular. I'm unclear as to why they target it so heavily. It's obviously very close to Iran's border, so easy for them to target. But Kuwait doesn't have much sway with the Americans. You know, it's not like they're going to be able to put much pressure. Not like UAE or Saudi anyway one to keep an eye on what's been going on in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Well, so this is another area where Iran is trying to drive up that cost for America and its allies. At least two tankers appear to have been attacked in the strait this morning. And overnight the first tanker was hit by an unknown projectile, forcing the crew to abandon the ship. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency, that incident came about eight miles across the coast of Oman. And then the second tanker was off the coast of Dibba in the UAE when it was hit by a projectile that damaged its steering gear. And that comes after two other tankers were struck while transiting the strait on Sunday. That was a Malta flagged tanker and a Liberian flagged tanker. They were both struck while they were using the US backed route through the strait.

[Venetia Rainey]

That southern Omani route.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Yeah. So crossings through the strait continue to fall this week. According to shipping data, only four commodity vessels actually passed through the strait yesterday, mostly using the Iranian route. And that's down from seven the previous day.

[Venetia Rainey]

And that's daytime, that's nothing. But four via the Iranian route still is nothing for them either.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Exactly. So Brent crude has climbed above $90 a barrel as supply concerns have intensified. This is basically Iran trying to continue to force ships to transit through its territorial waters. And the Revolutionary Guards put out a statement on Tuesday morning saying, and I'll quote this bit, that as long as America's mischief in the region continues, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and not even one drop of oil or gas, nor a single shipment of chemical fertilizer will be exported from the area. So strong stuff from them.

[Venetia Rainey]

But it does seem to be working. A reminder like this whole round of strikes started after Iran was attacking tankers that were using that southern US backed Omani territory route through the Strait of Hormuz. And repeatedly, as you said at the top, CENTCOM has been citing trying to maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as to why they're hitting all these various targets in Iran, mostly along the coast. But it's not working. If Iran is still managing to target ships, they clearly still have the military capabilities to do it and the space to do it. You know, like they're not constantly under pressure, that they have the ability to fire things off. It's fascinating to me and it just shows that this escalation ladder doesn't seem to be achieving anything yet. So let's look at where that leaves us with talk. So the big mediators, Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan, they're now proposing a 10 day mini ceasefire. This is according to sources of direct knowledge told Axios and being reported elsewhere. We know that the Iranian Interior Minister is currently in Pakistan technically for bilateral trade talks, but he's going to meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif and Field Marshal Syed Aseem Munir, the Pakistan's head of the military. These were the people who really managed to broker the mou, the Memorandum of Understanding that created a ceasefire in the first place. I only recently found out that that MOU is actually technically called the Islamabad Memorandum. So that's where it was brokered and Pakistan really want their role in that to be highlighted. Not clear whether they're going to be able to broker anything else here you've got this idea of potential talks and Trump has said, you know, we can keep talking, we're open, but the bombing continues. The other option that he's apparently being presented with is to go in harder.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Right.

[Venetia Rainey]

So we've seen more fighter jets flying in. We've seen refueling aircraft being brought to the region. There's a question about where they all go. Where is America supposed to base extra assets? It's clear that they're increasingly at risk in the Gulf, Jordan, increasingly under fire. So a lot of them are being put in Israel. We had a really good email from Robert Campbell. He's a former British army officer and a regular listener. He always tells us to watch the tankers. I'm just going to read out some of what he said. Up until recently, 75 of these tankers were sat at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. This tells me that someone had committed their entire logistic tale to parking them there, because as I said previously, these are very old planes and they need a lot of TL sea. So that was a strategic decision to forward base them there. That's a serious commitment with enormous manpower and equipment component to keep dozens of old aircraft airworthy for months away from their home base with their necessary flying hours, commitments for crews. That tells me that they had plans, plans to do more. So he's always thought that we would have to return to this state of more kinetic activity. He said moving fast jets back and forth is relatively easy, so maybe not one to watch, although we know fighter jets are heading in. You just swap one squadron out for another with tankers and whatnot. It's not that simple. It's also a very good tactical decision as they have the best air defense there in Israel so far. Iran is attacking the Gulf states and Jordan. Escalating to Israel carries significant risk, something we've been speaking about previously on the podcast. But tankers are increasingly becoming a nuisance for Israel because it needs a lot of space and it's taking up space for commercial jets. So I was just looking at this, trying to figure out where else they could go. And apparently Bulgaria's government is now asking for Permission to Park 8 U.S. aerial refueling aircraft at its Besma air base following a request from Washington. That request was lodged in the middle of June, which I think is interesting, but it's taken a while to go through because it needs parliamentary approval in Bulgaria. So there is clearly this sense that America never quite gave up the idea that it would have to return to fighting what do you make of that?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Yeah, I mean, it's fascinating insight into the kind of like the logistical effort that underpins this kind of an air campaign. Yeah, I mean, I remember in the buildup to the initial phase of the fighting, there's a lot of watching tankers being stationed everywhere and. Yeah, so it highlights how essential they are, I think, to the type of warfare that America's trying to wage against Iran. Where you need to keep fighter jets in the air for a long time to search for air defenses and other targets of opportunity that pop up.

[Venetia Rainey]

Yeah, absolutely. Okay, so that's the sort of US Iran aspect. But this war is widening regionally.

[Mary and Courtney from Two Judgy Girls]

Right.

[Venetia Rainey]

We've had a lot of whispers about Israel potentially getting involved if America did go in harder. Far right, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that right now the state of Israel has no interest in joining the campaign. The current situation is good for us. But Axios reported Israeli sources saying the IDF is on high alert and preparing for a possible expansion of the war. Who knows? One actor that has come into the conflict we think is starting to become more vocal is the Houthis in Yemen. Tell us what's been happening there.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

So that's right. So yesterday the Houthis, who are this rebel group in Yemen backed by Iran, announced that they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and would close the Bab el Mandab Strait to Saudi vessels. There are concerns that this could result in a kind of expansion of the massive shipping crisis in the Middle east that we've seen in the last months. So if you look at a map of the Gulf, the Bab el Mandeb Strait is sort of on the western side of the Gulf where Yemen almost meets Djibouti in East Africa. They're actually only 20 miles apart, their closest point. It's no less vital to global trade than the Strait of Hormuz. It's actually a key link between Europe and Asia. About a quarter of all global container trade passes through the strait on its way to and from the Suez Canal. But recently the Bab el Mandab Strait emerged as a kind of much needed alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for global oil flows. So the Saudis currently export about 4 million barrels a day from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. And that's about 400% increase on the pre Iran war levels. So its name in Arabic actually is the Gate of Tears. And that's apparently because it can be very difficult to navigate.

[Venetia Rainey]

That's a good fact. I like that.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

And one of the key questions now, I suppose is how successfully the Houthis might be able to enforce this blockade on Saudi Arabia. So they've already proved very adept at disrupting shipping through the strait. They've used anti ship missiles and Iranian supplied drones to great effect against dozens of ships since 2023. We haven't seen them launch any attacks since they announced this new embargo. In fact, it's actually been two weeks since the last time the Houthis launched an attack on shipping in that area. But it's already driving up the price of insurance costs for goods being shipped through the Red Sea.

[Venetia Rainey]

Okay, so why are the Houthis coming in now? We've had this sort of Iranian proxy card, if I can call it that, invoked at multiple times over the conflict and they've never really properly come in. I know a lot of people tell us that the Houthis are a lot more independent than say Hezbollah of Iran. But why do you think they're starting to pipe up now? Why this maritime blockade now?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Well, there's a lot of debate over this. So I was reading an analysis from the Institute of the Study of War which suggested that this could be Iran trying to use its proxies to expand the geographical scope of the conflict and further disrupt global markets and impose additional costs, like we were saying earlier on the US and its allies. But there's also been some suggestion this is actually the Houthis trying to deter further Saudi air attacks on Yemen.

[Venetia Rainey]

Because we had one the other week.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Right.

[Venetia Rainey]

On an airport. On an airport in Sana'.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

A. Yeah. So it's come after weeks of kind of escalating rhetoric between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. That conflict just seems to be intensifying at the moment. The Houthis themselves say that their blockade is a response to a Saudi blockade of ports in northern Yemen. Whatever the cause, the move I think threatens to reignite this conflict in Yemen, which. The one that pits the Houthis against the Saudi led coalition and their allies in the Yemeni government. So Yemen's defence minister this morning said the army was ready to fight to end the Houthi coup as he kind of tried to jeep people up for a renewed spate of fighting there.

[Venetia Rainey]

So the civil war there could be re inflamed by all of this. Is that the suggestion?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

That is the suggestion I think that's being made. And that does seem to be something that analysts are wary of.

[Venetia Rainey]

Interesting. Okay, and then the other area we should talk about is Lebanon, because this was. There's the other main theater of the Iran war conflict. And Iran consistently linked what was happening in Lebanon to the implementation of the mou. Those strands seem to have been separated a bit more, mainly because there appears to be more success with dealing with the conflict in Lebanon than there has been in terms of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. So today, the pilot zone scheme that has been talked about repeatedly over the past few weeks has begun. So basically this involves the Israeli military withdrawing from a village, a small area, and the Lebanese national army moving in. And the idea is to create a sort of seal so that Hezbollah can't retake any areas as the Israeli military withdraws. And the goal is two things, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and also to disarm Hezbollah slowly in the process. So that's what they're trying to do. This is all backed by the U.S. there have been lots of talks between Lebanon and Israel, which is fairly unprecedented, and the US has been backing it all. Lebanese army has issued a statement this morning confirming the deployment of its troops to Zaata Al Khabiyya, which had been occupied by the Israeli military. So engineering units have entered the town to start clearing the area of unexploded ordnance, according to Al Jazeera. And this will be the first test case. Basically, you know, can the Lebanese army do the job? Will the Israeli army believe they can do the job of clearing it of Hezbollah militants, weapons, whatever else they find? If it works, then the plan is to roll it out across the whole of southern Lebanon. And this is going to take a while because obviously there are hundreds of villages. There are two other villages that have been mentioned in the pilot scheme that's rolling out today, Froon and Srifa. But the Israeli military, as far as I can see from reporting, never had a ground presence there. So I'm not entirely sure why they're included in the pilot zone. Maybe it's just win for the Lebanese National Army. This whole project is being called a milestone by the Americans. And it comes as Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun is in America for a historic meeting with Donald Trump. First time in 20 years that the Lebanese head of state has been to the White House. He met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday. So they're really like, welcoming in the Lebanese government, potentially making the Israelis quite nervous. Netanyahu has also been bidding for a meeting with Trump recently. He was supposed to be there, I think last week. Canceled it last minute because I think he couldn't secure face to face time with Trump. Was the reporting Might be there later this month for Lindsey Graham's funeral. There's jostling going on here. And I think the other thing to say is Hezbollah is not part of this agreement. This is a trilateral agreement between the Americans, the Lebanese and the Israelis. Hezbollah is not part of it. So what will actually happen in terms of the withdrawal?

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

All of this seems quite positive in a way that there's a sort of energy about Lebanon and the Lebanese government that I've not seen for years maybe.

[Venetia Rainey]

Yeah, I think that's true. Joseph Owen has really, he stepped out of the usual formula, I think, for Lebanese leaders in which they try to sort of stay clear of it a bit. But he is trying to stake his reputation on finding a long term solution to this. I mean, that's what he's trying to do. That's probably a bit over egging the pudding a bit, but he is trying to make some sort of progress. I think there is more political will to deal with the Hezbollah issue in Lebanon than there has been for a very long time. That's not to say the country's not heavily divided over it and that if it actually came to trying to disarm Hezbollah by force, there wouldn't be some issues a potential civil war. It's always the spectre that hangs over Lebanon. But at the highest echelons of government, there does seem to be political will to make it work. The reason I'm not entirely hopeful is that this is still very much a live conflict. Plenty of things can go wrong. Just this morning we had Israel carrying out massive demolition operations in the town of Maisa Jabal in the south. And in the Nabatiya district, also in the south, the Israeli army carried out a bombing in the town of Kfar Tebnit. Hezbollah have been quiet recently, but we've had a couple of seizures of shipments by the Syrians en route to Lebanon, presumably from Iran. So just today, Syrian Customs and Ports Authority announced it had seized a weapons shipment, included 226 IEDs that were hidden in a vehicle heading to Lebanon. Last week they seized a shipment of weapons, including long range missiles, rockets, drones, at the border with Iraq, which they also said was being smuggled. Hezbollah. So clearly someone Iran is still trying to arm its proxy. They don't see that fight as over. So I think there's a lot still up in the air. But it's a good sign. It's positive. Hey, we'll take positive. One more story you wanted to flag that was just breaking on the blogs as we are recording.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Yes, that's right. So Masoud Possesskian, the president of Iran, has said that the level of communication with the country's supreme leader, Moshe Al Khamenei, has increased and that he's continuing to kind of guide decisions for the country. This is being reported in state media. Obviously, Khamenei has not been seen in public since the war began, and it's generally thought that he's basically only been able to communicate with people through written statements that are being put out by the state media. But speaking earlier today, Possesskian said, now with increased communication and greater access to our beloved leader, all actions are organized according to his guidelines. So some sense there that that Mojtabe is kind of coming out of the shadows a little bit and maybe will be able to kind of take back the reins of power.

[Venetia Rainey]

Yeah, that's really interesting because we've also heard, you know, constant rumors about splits. Mojtaba very against the MoU with America. He gave a statement over the weekend saying the American president's signature cannot be trusted. So there's maybe a sense that everyone's starting to fall in line behind him given the fact that the MoU, the peace deal is not working out. We'll keep an eye on that. That's very interesting. Arthur, lovely to have you back on the podcast.

[Arthur (Scott Geddes)]

Thank you very much. Thank you for having me.

[Venetia Rainey]

We're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after the break, what does the new British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, mean for the Middle East?

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[Venetia Rainey]

Welcome back. You're listening to Iran. The latest with me, Venetia Rainey. Britain has a new Prime Minister, the seventh in a decade. His name is Andy Burnham and he's a former mayor from Manchester. He stood down earlier this year so he could run as an MP and oust Keir Starmer, which he did successfully. But what approach will he take to the Iran war, to Donald Trump and to Israel? To discuss all of this, I'm joined by our chief foreign affairs commentator, David Blair. David, welcome back onto Iran. The latest. One of the first calls that Andy Burnham made yesterday, his first day in office, was with Donald Trump. Apparently one of the things that they discussed was the straight up or moves. I'm just going to read out Trump's statement on Truth Social. I had a very good conversation with the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Andy Burnham. We discussed many subjects, including the outstanding relationship we have had with the uk. We will be meeting in the not too distant future for topics of mutual interest. The Prime Minister has got a big job ahead of him, but he'll be able to do it. And of course, the USA will be there to help. We discussed North Sea oil trade, the military alliance, demining of the Hormuz Strait and many other topics. The call was interesting and went very well. I wish Prime Minister Burnham good luck and Godspeed. That sounds like it was all pretty positive. And we know that Burnham invited Trump to Manchester when Britain hosts the G20 next year. That all sounds very cosy, but the Iran war could be a stumbling block still for Burnham and Trump, couldn't it?

[Acast Announcer]

Yes, it could, because Britain takes a fundamentally different view. The British government has never supported this war. It was never going to join it, which is unusual because, you know, normally when America's gone to war in the last 80 or so years, the British have either been fighting alongside them or have at the very least backed them up. But this time, the British have broken with the Americans. Having said that, the previous government allowed America to use two British bases, Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford, for very specific purposes, and that was to conduct military strikes that were necessary to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, or rather, prevent Iran from restrict Iran's ability to interdict shipping and secondly, to stop Iranian missiles from being fired at countries in the Middle east, where, by the way, in the Gulf, for instance, there are about 300,000 British citizens. So the question, the immediate question for Burnham will be whether he allows those basing rights to continue. My suspicion is that he probably will. It would be a big decision to overturn them. And I suspect that if there was any chance of him doing that, we wouldn't have had the positive and upbeat account of his call with Donald Trump that you've just read out. And look, you know, the British, and I think the Americans too, will want to try and make this relationship work. You know, Starmer and Trump didn't have much in common, but at least at the beginning, they got on quite well. Another point to bear in mind is that Burnham has kept Jonathan Powell as National Security Advisor. Burnham himself has no experience whatever of foreign policy. He's never held anything except domestic responsibilities in his whole career. But Powell is vastly experienced and he has very close ties with the Trump administration and his instinct will be to smooth everything over.

[Venetia Rainey]

That's interesting, because one of the first pronouncements that we had from Bernham was that he was going to revisit the UK's policy on Israel. He made an apology. He said that Labour had got it wrong on Gaza. Do you think that heralds any kinds of actual policy changes if Jonathan Powell is still there and they want to keep that relationship with America smooth?

[Acast Announcer]

That's a very good question, and it's hard to tell. But if you look to what Burnham said about Israel, Gaza, the intended audience was clearly Labour MPs and activists, and really nobody else. And if you looked at it closely, I think the only possible policy change that he was holding out was that Britain might impose sanctions on goods made in settlements in the West Bank. Now, that's been talked about for a long time. It may or may not happen. If it did happen, it wouldn't make a huge difference. Beyond that, I suspect there won't be any great change. But there again, you have to remember that Britain broke with Israel over the Gaza war quite some time ago, and it even restricted military exports, although, of course it didn't end them, but it did restrict them. And those were quite significant policy changes. So I suspect Burnham will just carry on as things were.

[Venetia Rainey]

The other things we have to factor in is that he has, of course, a whole new cabinet, and maybe we sort of run through the three main ones that pertain to this podcast one by one. So first, we have Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary, I think something that has taken a few people aback and you wrote a reasonably excoriating piece. Tell us why you think this was a bad appointment.

[Acast Announcer]

I think it was a bad appointment because he was a key figure in one of the great foreign policy misjudgments of recent time, and that was the decision not to intervene in Syria after Bashar Al Assad had gassed 1,400 people with sarin nerve gas. And as you'll remember, the issue was put to the House of Commons. Ed Miliband opposed military action and he was successful. He persuaded the House of Commons to veto action. And the consequence was that Assad just carried on gassing his own people over and over and over again, until finally, Donald Trump, in his first term, bombed Assad in response to a gas attack in 2017, and then did it again in 2018, that time in concert with Britain and with France, whereupon chemical weapon attacks very quickly ended and no one else was killed in that way in Syria. So military action succeeded in ending Assad's chemical massacres, but the tragedy is that that could have happened five years earlier if Ed Miliband and others hadn't opposed military action at the time. Now, I tend to think that when you're responsible for a misjudgment as serious as that one, and which had such terrible consequences, then you probably shouldn't go on to become Foreign Secretary.

[Venetia Rainey]

Do you think that dovish approach will have any impact on Burnham's approach to the Middle east and the conflict there?

[Acast Announcer]

I suspect Burnham's approach to the Middle east will be exactly the same as his predecessor, and I also wonder how much it matters, quite frankly. I think Britain's ability to influence events, either when it comes to the Israel Gaza situation or the war with Iran, is minimal.

[Venetia Rainey]

Now, I suppose he might want to. I mean, I'm thinking the only potential thing he could get involved in is stopping us from being involved in de mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is only actually supposed to happen once there is a proper ceasefire, but it is supposed to be British and French forces leading their effort. If that actually happens, he could potentially try and kibosh that.

[Acast Announcer]

I suppose he could, but that would be a strange thing to do, since the mission, the only mission that's been talked about is one that would happen after a peace settlement, once the conflict is over, when there's no particular risk, so to, as it were, preemptively scupper, that would achieve nothing. And my suspicion is that that mission will probably never happen anyway, because it would require Iran's consent. And the whole point about the Iranian regime is that it does not like foreign navies, particularly Western navies. Particularly the Royal Navy being in the waters along its coastline. I suspect Iran will never give its consent and that that mission may never see the light of day.

[Venetia Rainey]

Anyway, what do you make of Wes Streeting being appointed as Defence Secretary? Our former Health Secretary. An interesting choice.

[Acast Announcer]

Yes. And look, on the one hand, he's got no experience of defence policy and no military background, which makes him, on the face of it, a strange choice. But on the other hand, look, if you're the armed forces, what you most want, or what you should most want, is a Defence Secretary who's got the political weight to argue your corner, particularly when it comes to protecting the defence budget. And Streeting may have that political weight within the Labour Party. He was at one point a contender to be Labour leader. He didn't get it, but clearly he was somebody of sufficient authority that Burnham felt that he had to include him in his Cabinet and give him quite a big job. All of which might augur well in the sense that you might have somebody who's actually listened to within the party making the case for the armed forces. Whereas poor old Dan Jarvis tossed aside after how long was it? Five weeks, six weeks? I mean, it's extraordinary. He must be the shortest serving Defence Secretary ever. I stand to be corrected on that. Someone can point out if I'm wrong, but that just shows that Jarvis did not have the political weight that the armed forces should want in their leader.

[Venetia Rainey]

I suppose the thing that the armed forces will be particularly excited about is the fact that the former Defence Secretary, John Healey, who resigned in outrage over the lack of proper defence funding, he's now Chancellor, a huge promotion for him and I think, I hope, a real sign that the British government is really going to try and find a solution to this defence funding issue that plagued the previous government.

[Acast Announcer]

Yes, and now John Healey's on his mettle because he's said everything about the necessity of spending 3% of GDP by 2030, etc. Etc. Now he's the man with the money, so he's in a position to deliver it. He's the fox. He's become the gamekeeper. Or is it the other way around? I don't know. But anyway, he's gone to the other side of the fence and now we'll see whether he's got the weight to deliver what he clearly wants to do, which is a big increase in the defence budget.

[Venetia Rainey]

It was a surprising choice, wasn't it? Everyone was expecting Shabana Mahmoud or Ed Miliband. No one had really been talking about John Healey. But I think it's quite a shrewd move by Burnham. I think if anyone can make the argument that more money needs to be spent on defence and that money will have to be taken either via taxes or out of welfare, I think those are the sort of two big pots that one could tap. John Healey is the man who should be able to make the argument.

[Acast Announcer]

Yes, that's right. And then you have Pat McFadden becoming work and Pension secretary as well, and that is the department with the biggest chunk of the welfare budget. And he's also on the record as saying that this has to be reformed. So you have a Defense Secretary who's quite a senior figure in the party, who has himself said previously, even before he was in office, that we need to spend more money on defence and reduce welfare. You've got a Chancellor who was the Defense Secretary who argued passionately for more money for defence and eventually left in protest. And you've got a working Pension Secretary who's on the record as saying that the whole system has to be reformed. So I wonder whether Burnham is sending a signal there that he's going to at least try to reform the welfare state and divert some money to defence. We'll see. But of course, labor backed benchers, a lot of them hate that kind of thing and they would just put him in power unopposed. So if he does go down that road, he's going to annoy a big chunk of his own party.

[Venetia Rainey]

So no change in policy towards the Middle east, more money on defence, we think. What else will change in this new government in terms of foreign policy or defence that we've missed very little.

[Acast Announcer]

I suspect nothing will change in respect of Britain's support for Ukraine or NATO or anything like that. So I suspect the general picture will be one of continuity.

[Venetia Rainey]

That was David Blair, our chief foreign affairs commentator. And that's all for today's episode of Iran the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye. Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Raney and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our dispatchers newsletter or listen to our sister podcast, Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address battle linestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show notes. The producer is Max Bauer. The Executive producer is Louisa Wells.

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[Mary and Courtney from Two Judgy Girls]

hey guys. Welcome to Giggly Squad, a place where we make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves. I'm Paige Desorbo.

[Venetia Rainey]

I'm Hannah Berner.

[Mary and Courtney from Two Judgy Girls]

Welcome to the squad.

[Venetia Rainey]

Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling during an inappropriate time.

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But of course we can't be managed,

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so we decided to start this podcast to continue giggling.

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We will make fun of pop culture news. We're watching Fashion Trends pep talks where we give advice, mental health moments and games and guests.

[Venetia Rainey]

Listen to Giggly Squad on Acast or wherever you get your podcasts.

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