Iran: The Latest — “Trump’s Iran ceasefire on brink of collapse & how Ukraine is helping the Gulf”

The Telegraph | April 9, 2026
Host: Venetia Rainey
Guests: Ahmed Al Kuzai (Political Consultant, Bahrain), Sasha Bruchman (Research Fellow, IISS, Qatar)

Main Theme

This episode examines the fragility of the current ceasefire between the US and Iran, focusing in particular on the regional repercussions for the Gulf states. It analyzes escalating violence involving Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah; the strategic importance and contested status of the Strait of Hormuz; the war’s economic fallout on the Gulf; and the innovative role of Ukraine’s counter-drone technology in bolstering Gulf defenses. Expert guests offer vivid on-the-ground insight from Bahrain and Qatar.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crumbling Ceasefire and Widening Conflict (02:01–11:22):

• Recent Escalation in Lebanon:
  • Israeli forces carried out an intense bombing campaign in Lebanon, including a 10-minute blitz across 48 targets (02:38).
    • “The Israeli army dropped 160 bombs on 100 targets in the space of 10 minutes… Operation Eternal Darkness” — Venetia Rainey (02:39)
  • Civilian casualties high, including women and children, according to Lebanese officials and WHO (03:28).
  • Israel claims assassination of a key Hezbollah figure, which Hezbollah has yet to confirm (03:17).
  • The widespread attack triggered condemnation from the UK, France, and the WHO.
• Disputed Terms of Ceasefire:
  • Confusion persists about Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire.
  • The US and Israel stress Lebanon is excluded due to Hezbollah’s activity, while Iran insists Lebanon and the “resistance axis” are covered under the agreement (04:37–06:09).
    • “The US must choose ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.” — Abbas Aragchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister (05:27)
    • “A grave violation… You cannot have a cake and eat it at the same time.” — Deputy Iranian FM (06:09)
  • Hezbollah responded with a rocket barrage on northern Israel (05:09), first since ceasefire announcement.
• Strait of Hormuz — Flashpoint:
  • Iran has reportedly re-closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, allowing only non-oil bulk carriers through since ceasefire (07:44).
  • Ship traffic described as a "ghost town"—economic and energy impacts immediate (08:06).
• US Stance & Rhetoric:
  • Trump’s posturing: “If for any reason it is not [the peace deal is not fulfilled]… the shooting starts bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.” — Trump, paraphrased (08:31)
  • Upcoming peace talks still scheduled, with heavy security measures in Islamabad, Pakistan (09:27).
• US-NATO Tensions:
  • Trump considers US withdrawal from NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger.”
    • “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them and they won’t be there if we need them again.” — Trump, Truth Social (10:33)
• Regional Drone & Missile Attacks:
  • Recent widespread Iranian (or proxy) drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain (12:48–16:21).

2. Gulf States: Living with War and Waiting on Peace (14:25–18:56)

• Local Atmosphere during 'Ceasefire':
  • Civilians in Bahrain and Qatar are cautiously resuming daily life—“back to swimming classes and Pilates” (14:25) even as schools remain closed due to staff shortages from expat departures (14:57).
• Ceasefire Skepticism:
  • Ahmed Al Kuzai: “To me, this is not a ceasefire yet… It does not entail anything and Iran is still firing at the Gulf states.” (17:00)
  • Sasha Bruchman: Iran is using its limited surviving capabilities to maintain pressure ahead of negotiations: “They’re playing an incredibly weak hand absolutely fantastically well.” (18:29)

3. Intra-Gulf Political Divides (19:22–22:40)

• Two Main Camps:
  • Anti-Iran: Bahrain (lead), followed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait—“stopped diplomatic ties with Iran since 2011… as a result of their interventions in Bahrain post-Arab Spring” (19:42).
  • Pragmatic/Neutral: UAE, Qatar, Oman—continued some direct engagement, but ‘both camps are under fire’ regardless of stance (20:16).
  • Sasha Bruchman describes a continuum rather than fixed camps: “You definitely have Bahrain and UAE as quite forward leaning on the US side… The Omani position is quite interesting because it also came under attack a few times.” (21:22)

4. Economic Fallout on the Gulf (22:40–25:43)

• Sharp Export Declines:
  • Combined March hydrocarbon exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE were down 44% from February (22:40).
• Strait of Hormuz dependence:
  • Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq especially vulnerable. Saudi and UAE somewhat mitigated by pipelines but still heavily impacted (23:06–23:46).
  • Ahmed Al Kuzai: Regional economic damage estimated at $100–$190 billion, including to infrastructure (24:34).
• Long-Term Scarring:
  • Sasha Bruchman: Recalls Kuwait’s lingering wounds post-1991; “It has left deep scars in the political, economic, and social systems…” (25:43)
  • Recovery will take years, especially for energy infrastructure (25:22).

5. Securing the Strait of Hormuz: Force or Diplomacy? (26:25–32:32)

• Nightmare Scenario: Iran able to control or close the strait at will, charge tolls, or mine the waters (26:25).
• International Efforts & Frustrations:
  • Bahrain tried to push for UN authorization of force to open the strait, but Russia and China vetoed (26:25–27:10).
  • Bahrain invoked its defense pact with the UK/US; UK deployed Typhoon jets to intercept attacks (27:10).
  • Ahmed Al Kuzai: “These treaties combined, I think, will create something. But as everybody else, everybody's waiting for the result of the talks in Pakistan…” (27:54)
• Counterforce Needed:
  • Sasha Bruchman: “There needs to be a counterforce… The United States doesn’t seem to be willing to put ships into the Strait of Hormuz… cautiously optimistic about the agreements between Ukraine and Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on counter UAV [drones].” (28:46)
• Ukraine’s Role:
  • Ukraine is exporting cost-effective “counter-drone drones” to Gulf states, using expertise gained fighting Iranian drones in Ukraine (29:32).
  • Gulf investment boosts Ukrainian production; new tech helps alleviate defense burden (30:06).
  • “One of the tiny little bits of silver lining on the horizon…” — Sasha Bruchman (30:45)
  • This dynamic subtly shifts Gulf relations with both Ukraine and Russia, given Russia’s involvement (31:10).
• Who Else Can Help?
  • Russia and China no longer viable as honest brokers given their alignment with Iran; possible coalition partners: Korea, NATO, Japan (31:41).
  • Political will for intervention remains the chief obstacle (32:32).

6. Iran’s Missile Capabilities and Gulf Security Calculus (33:31–39:04)

• Ongoing Threat Debate:
  • Saudi Arabia may want further US military action to fully degrade Iran’s missile stock (33:31).
  • Sasha Bruchman: Uncertainty over Iran’s remaining missiles: “We don’t know how many missiles are shot, how many have been destroyed… I’m relatively confident that much of the missile defense industry has been destroyed.” (35:39)
• Defense Cooperation:
  • GCC States (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) form a cooperative air defense network—‘Peninsula Shield’ (37:50).
  • Ahmed Al Kuzai: “I’m more optimistic about how the Gulf stands compared to how the Iranians are.” (38:46)

7. Rethinking Gulf Security Arrangements & US Relations (39:04–42:22)

• Will the GCC Turn Away from the US?
  • Existing US-Gulf base agreements prioritize American interest, especially in Qatar and Bahrain (39:24).
  • “Qatar started changing these clauses and that's exactly what we will see happening later on… instead of it just being merely for the American interest in the Gulf. How about we make it at least, at least mutual…” — Ahmed Al Kuzai (40:06)
• US “Pivot” Dilemma:
  • Sasha Bruchman: “The US wants to leave the Middle East… but it can’t as long as Iran is a threat to its GCC allies. That’s what this war is about a bit… and how the Americans negotiate will define those relationships.” (40:28)
  • The regional sense of “betrayal” could deepen if the US leaves the Gulf exposed or negotiates away core security issues like the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Military technology (e.g., US-supplied Patriot interceptors) will anchor some ongoing ties (41:45).

8. US Bases and Host Nation Involvement (42:22–43:58)

• No Evidence of US Launching Attacks from Gulf Bases:
  • According to both guests, attacks have been launched from outside Gulf territory; US personnel have been evacuated or redeployed, not actively firing from within GCC borders (42:35–43:27).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “They’re playing an incredibly weak hand absolutely fantastically well.”
  — Sasha Bruchman (01:45, repeated 18:29), praising Iran’s ability to maintain leverage despite military setbacks.

• “You cannot have a cake and eat it at the same time.”
  — Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister (06:09), on the binary of ceasefire vs. war.

• “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them and they won’t be there if we need them again. Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run piece of ice?”
  — Donald Trump (10:33), signaling frustration with NATO and alluding to past controversial positions.

• “It’s positive. People are almost back to their normal lives. I met friends over coffee… people are back to swimming classes and Pilates, I could say.”
  — Ahmed Al Kuzai (14:25), describing everyday resilience in Bahrain amid regional turbulence.

• “Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are uniquely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz… The east-west pipeline is the single most important piece of avoiding Iranian pressure.”
  — Sasha Bruchman (23:06), emphasizing the vulnerability of smaller Gulf states.

• “The damages that were basically targeted at our economy in the Gulf and Iran altogether is some between $100 and $190 billion so far.”
  — Ahmed Al Kuzai (24:34)

• “I think the Iranians have, militarily, with the degradation of their systems, they're playing an incredibly weak hand absolutely fantastically well. You have to give them credit almost for how little they play the whole world so much.”
  — Sasha Bruchman (18:29)

• “Ukraine needs investment to produce more [drones]. Gulf states are willing to invest and help with increasing the production rate.”
  — Sasha Bruchman (30:06)

Key Timestamps

• 02:01–11:22: Updates, Israel-Hezbollah escalation, ceasefire disputes, Strait of Hormuz closure.
• 14:25–19:22: Mood in Bahrain and Qatar, initial local reactions, early effects of ceasefire signs.
• 19:22–22:40: Gulf policy divides and shifting positions during the conflict.
• 22:40–25:22: Economic impact: energy exports down, infrastructure damage.
• 25:43–26:25: Historical scars and future risks for Gulf economies.
• 26:25–32:32: Strait of Hormuz security dilemma, international efforts, Ukraine’s tech support.
• 33:31–39:04: Iran’s missile stock debate, air defense cooperation in the Gulf.
• 39:04–42:22: US-GCC relationship and the evolving defense/security arrangements.
• 42:22–43:58: US bases’ involvement or lack thereof in regional strikes.

Summary Tone

The conversation is sober, analytical, and richly informed, stressing both the ongoing volatility of the conflict and the adaptability of regional actors. Both Gulf-based analysts offer frank assessments: they appreciate local resilience but remain wary of uncertain “ceasefire” terms, Iran’s remaining missile capacity, and the limitations of US and Western security guarantees. Ukraine’s technical support emerges as a sliver of optimism in otherwise daunting circumstances.

For listeners seeking clarity on the unraveling Iran ceasefire, the episode offers unparalleled insight into how Gulf states are scrambling to defend vital interests, adapt to shifting alliances, and leverage unexpected international partnerships—including with Ukraine—to navigate an exceptionally dangerous chapter in Middle East history.