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- [00:00]
J.D. Vance
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Kat and Nat
This is Kat and Nat from Catnat Unfiltered and this episode is sponsored by Michaels. Your destination for all things Birthday parties. If you've ever planned a birthday celebration, you know it goes from cute idea to full on chaos real fast. The party shop at Michael's makes life easy easier with over 4,500 party supplies in 60 plus themes like Bluey Rodeo, Soccer, Rainbow and more starting at just 99 cents. You can shop same day delivery or order online for pickup in store and they even do free helium inflation on select balloon styles. Michaels everything. To celebrate anything, visit Michaels in store or shop online now.
- [00:51]
Brock Ciarlelli
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- [01:49]
Roland Oliphant
foreign I'm Roland Oliphant.
- [01:54]
Venetia Rainey
And I'm Venetia Rainey.
- [01:55]
Roland Oliphant
And this is Iran. The Latest It's Monday, June 15th, the 108th day of the war and the 68th day of the ceasefire, and it may all be over.
- [02:05]
Venetia Rainey
Today we're going to be discussing the peace deal. Or is it a peace deal? We've got a memorandum of understanding, but we haven't actually seen any of the details. What's in it, what's not, who's party to it and who's not? And what are the long term implications going to be?
- [02:17]
Roland Oliphant
Start your engines, donald Trump said to oil tankers waiting to get through the Strait of Hormuz. Will we have to pack up this podcast? Is the conflict entirely over, or is it yet again, a false hope? We'll be discussing all of this over the next hour. A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [02:43]
Kat and Nat
Today, President Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks.
- [02:53]
Roland Oliphant
The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of
- [02:56]
Brock Ciarlelli
that island as a way to force
- [02:57]
Roland Oliphant
the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- [03:00]
Brock Ciarlelli
Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.
- [03:04]
Roland Oliphant
Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?
- [03:09]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Come on.
- [03:11]
Venetia Rainey
So, Roland, we're in the studio. We're in full Technicolor being filmed. For those of you listening, audio only link in the show notes if you want to watch. Roland and I and our facial expressions as we discuss these very important matters. So, Roland, we've got a memorandum of understanding. We haven't actually seen it, no, but we know a rough outline of it. Give us a rough outline.
- [03:28]
Roland Oliphant
The rough outline according to statements by people who have seen it, leaked drafts published by various countries, medias, and a kind of general consensus that I'm sucking kind of osmosis from the air of international relations. It looks like this. The United States is going to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranians are going to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Ship's going to start back and forth. There's going to be a ceasefire in, in the Gulf, but also in Lebanon. All fronts, including Lebanon, that's important. The Israelis don't like that. We'll come back to that later. And that's going to, that's going to last for 60 days. And in those 60 days there are going to be talks, further talks for final peace deal. And that deal is going to be about Iran's nuclear stockpile. That's 60%. There's a 400 and something, however many kilograms of 60% enriched uranium that they've gone. And the Americans want to get rid of what Donald Trump calls nuclear dust. Where does that go? Secondly, future enrichment. How much if any uranium will Iran be allowed to enrich in future for potential civilian purposes? Third, what happens to the sanctions on Iran if Iran complies with all these American demands, what sanctions relief does it get? Will its frozen assets be released? So that is the deal to be negotiated after this ceasefire comes into force.
- [04:39]
Venetia Rainey
So we had Donald Trump, he first posted. So the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Going to come back to that later. And simultaneously herewith, lots of lovely language authorized the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Immediate. Okay, ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow. Donald J. Trump. Just a side note, for anyone listening who watches Rupaul's Drag Race. I'm pretty sure that's a reference to that. Roland has no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm sure it is. Start your engines. He later posted. This great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region. Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran. All have failed before me. The leaders of the region have for the first time found a president who can help them achieve real peace. With the opening of the strait upon the signing of the deal on Friday. So that's already shifted back for purposes of mine removal. Oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world. President Donald Trump. Donald J. Trump. That's the official stuff that we've heard from Trump. And as you can see from the Americans, it's already shifting the timeline in terms of the opening of the strata for moves. But the strata for Moose is very much the focus of that deal and we're going to get more into that.
- [05:44]
Roland Oliphant
And no one's going to pay for it.
- [05:46]
Venetia Rainey
And no one's going to pay for it, according to him. So we then had overnight statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirming, yes, a deal has been agreed. So they wrote, according to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently from tonight. And furthermore, the naval blockade again against Iran will be immediately and completely lifted. The signing of this memorandum of understanding will be officially carried out on Friday. Don't they agree negotiations for the final agreement will be postponed until after the other party fulfils its commitments, according to the memorandum of understanding. And they thank Pakistan and Qatar. So there's lots of bits to pull out in there. So the Strait of Hormuz, it's not opening today. We don't think it's going to open on Friday, but we need the blockades to be lifted on both sides. It sounds like an Indian tanker has already gone through today. That's supposed to be the first one. Disha flies under a mold Maltese flag and it was carrying liquefied natural gas traveling between Qatar's Raslafan port and Oman's Shinas port. So maybe that's a good sign that even though it's not officially opening until Friday, things will start to move. That will be really key to watch in the coming days, won't it?
- [06:51]
Roland Oliphant
The other thing is, of course, in the drafts that we saw before, they were talking about a reopening, an agreed reopening within 30 days of the MoU being signed. It may be beyond this week before this actually happens if it happens, although both sides seem quite keen to get it done. So that's for sure. And the other question that isn't really resolved is this question of who's in charge of the Strait of Hormuz. So the Iranians are saying. Or Iranian news agency, Fars News Agency is saying that the draft memorandum recognizes Iranian Omani authority over the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. At the last minute, they added a clause on imposing maritime service fees on the framework. So a service fee is technically not at all. It's for services. So it's to pay for the piloting and the coast guards and the environmental upkeep. But it's still money. You're still going to have to pay money. So it seems this way that the Iranians, at least their news agencies, are suggesting. Here's the quotation. The use of the term maritime services means that the United States has accepted that fees will be paid to Iran. It says contrast that with Donald Trump's truth social announcement that it's going to be completely toll free. That's another big question here. You might think that the American just thought that they were just allowing the Iranians to restate the obvious in a way, which is that the Strait of Hormuz is not international waters. It is because it's narrow. Is Iranian and Omani territorial waters that they go through. The question is, are they going to charge money and are they going to
- [08:24]
Venetia Rainey
fire on anyone who doesn't pay the toll? I guess Iran has passed a bunch of pieces of legislation over the previous months that builds in this idea of it being able to charge tolls. And it's something that why would they let go of that? We've also seen the establishment of new maritime routes through the Strait of. So previously people sort of go through the middle. It's quite shallow. Now they're being asked to hug the Iranian coast if they want Iranian permission. But the Americans have opened up this alternative route that hugs the Omani coast. So I guess what we'll see is a lot of negotiation for boats going through as to whether they've got permission from both sides, permission from one side. Who are they paying tolls to, who are they not paying tolls to? And we probably will see multiple different routes going through the Strait of Hormuz and some routes maybe being more clogged up on some weeks and others being clearer on other weeks maybe. And just finally on the Strait of Hormuz thing, we had a statement from Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary. She said that The UK is ready with France to start escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz if it really has been opened. So that will be a military operation that we'll be watching and we'll see if it does actually swing into action. I think that'll be a key sign that everyone's happy that something has formally been agreed by all the different sides rather than just words, which is what we've been living in the world of over the past few weeks.
- [09:33]
Roland Oliphant
So that is the basic nub of this agreement. We're told it's to be signed on Friday. We don't know where and we don't know exactly by who, which individual from either government is going to pick up a pen and put their name on this document.
- [09:48]
Venetia Rainey
We think Switzerland, but they haven't actually received a formal request to have it signed there. We think it's going to be sort of tagged onto the end of the G7 maybe, but okay, that's on Friday. That's when we expect to be able to see the full text. And as you say, we don't have it right now. So I think the other thing to look at here is what's not in this deal. There's no mention of the nuclear stuff, right? And that was supposed to be the core goal of this war, even as all of the other goals of this conflict fell away. The missiles, the proxies, the Navy, which has been conventionally nuclear, is meant to exist.
- [10:16]
Roland Oliphant
Nuclear is meant, but it's a second stage. So they're going to talk about, right, this is a memorandum of understanding which is going to reopen the shipping lanes and reopen talks on the nuclear question, on the question of the stockpile, on the question of Iranian enrichment, which takes us back to just before the war on February 28, which is what was going on, talks with the Iranians about the future of their nuclear program.
- [10:39]
Kat and Nat
Bang.
- [10:39]
Roland Oliphant
That's what it is. What is not in there is the ballistic missile program, the Iranians proxy network, axis of resistance, as they call it. That was another one of the American grievances. And there's certainly nothing in there about, I don't know, democracy or regime change or accountability for the massacre of protesters, all of these things that Donald Trump was talking about at the very beginning of the operation. So this is very much reduced to the nuclear question, the nuclear question and the associated question of Iran's frozen assets and sanctions relief.
- [11:09]
Venetia Rainey
But we don't have any details. I mean, you're right, but those things are all still there to be worked out, right? So it's all been pushed forward to this next bit of their thing. We've had multiple different statements from Trump. He's speaking to the New York Times on the sideline of his birthday. Happy 80th birthday, President Trump. Yesterday, he said that Iran would only enrich uranium to a certain level. Well, we had that concession our listeners might remember, just before this war broke out came through the Omanis. Trump has suggested in a separate interview that America would remove the stockpile of enriched uranium, but that it would happen at some point over the next month or two. There's no rush. I'm quoting because that near weapons grade material is harmless. And then in another phone interview, he suggested that if Iran doesn't reach a nuclear accord at the end of the 60 days, I suppose he will restart military attacks on Iran or become the guardian of the Middle east in return for 20% of the region's revenues, whatever that means. So there's still a lot of wiggle room. It doesn't sound like anything has been agreed on Iran's nuclear program. Essentially, they've just agreed to talk about it later.
- [12:07]
Roland Oliphant
Yes, that's exactly what they've done. They've agreed to talk about it later.
- [12:10]
Venetia Rainey
There's no agreement then, is there? There's no movement on that.
- [12:12]
Roland Oliphant
No, there's an agreement towards an agreement. This is the agreement to end the war and open the sea lanes. This is not an agreement to settle the nuclear question.
- [12:19]
Venetia Rainey
But why would there be any pressure on Iran to make any concessions on its nuclear program? But if the war has already been ended, that feels to me like Trump has failed to do this one core thing that he really set out to do, get some kind of concession on the nuclear program, which, as David Blair has repeatedly pointed out in this podcast, was basically already obliterated last year during the 12 Day War. That's where most of the damage was done to their nuclear program. We don't know whether it's buried or what kind of state it's in, but something was supposed to happen to that enriched uranium. That was supposed to be the point of this war. 40 days of heavy bombardment, 13,000 strikes, more than 3,000 people killed in Iran, and nothing is going to happen to it. As far as we know. There's still talks about what could happen to it.
- [12:58]
Roland Oliphant
Well, there's talks about what could happen to it and there's assertions about that. So he's not saying, I mean, Donald Trump is not saying that nothing's going to happen to her and neither of the Iranians to be Fair. The discussion seems to be around dilution of the stockpile, whether that's in the country or outside the country, the limitation to an agreed limit on future enrichments and some kind of enforcement mechanism, a monitoring mechanism to keep Iran to that within those limits. All of which was in the JCPOA, which Donald Trump walked away from eight years ago now. So if we're back to 3.67% that was in the JCPOA, if we're back to inspections from the IAEA, that was in the JCPOA and the removal of all nuclear material, a lot of this MoU, it matches quite closely with an article that the former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote back in April about how to end the war. And in that he talks about 3.67%. He also talks about maybe it's time, look, the nuclear program hasn't done us any good at all. Maybe it is time to just knock it on the head. And we've seen that our main deterrent was not nuclear weapons. We survived this war. We didn't need nuke to do it. He takes Israel as an example. He says, look, they were unable to stop us bombing them. We bombed the Israel during this war. They have a nuclear deterrent didn't help them, so why bother now? Whether that has any cut through whatsoever back in Tehran amongst hardliners, I don't know. But it's interesting to see how closely this MOU maps with those proposals. And I think if the deal being presented to the Iranians is, look, get rid of that nuclear stuff in exchange for release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, allowing you to immediately start trading oil, that's a pretty big win for them if they were to get it. And on that note, these are a few things we haven't talked about yet. But the Iranian sources also say that this deal includes the release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets in Qatar. The first 12 to be released before these talks even begin, Then the second 12 to be released on completion of a deal concurrent with that, that's just frozen assets. Concurrent with that, sanctions relief says that the Americans have undertaken to lift sanctions concurrent with the progress on nuclear talks and that ahead of that, before the sanctions are lifted, the US treasury will issue a waiver, a sanctions waiver for the Iranian oil trades. They can get back to trading oil, petroleum products, everything else. And they say in the this is the summary put out by mayor's news agency last week, including banking services and so on.
- [15:21]
Venetia Rainey
So, okay, so that's just the Iranian side We don't know how much.
- [15:23]
Roland Oliphant
We don't know if this is true. So that's what the Iranians are saying. So that's the thing being dangled in front of them. Now, we all know how long nuclear talks have gone on in the past between Iran, the United States, the outside world. So in my view, there is no, no reason to assume that the 60 days is going to conclude with a deal of any sort, that either side might drag it out for a very long time. And it's quite possible the Iranians will res. Actually giving up any of that nuclear stockpile that you referred to. But on the other hand, they are where they are. And we know actually that despite them talking a big game about how stalwart and resistant and victorious they are, this war is hurt a hell of a lot. And the economy in Iran is in a total mess. There is big pressure on them as well to show a bit of give.
- [16:10]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, I mean, it's an appalling outcome for Iranian people, but for the regime, I mean, if they're handed $12 billion before talks have even begun, all that they have actually given, as far as we can tell at the moment of recording, and maybe more details will come out, is they've agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we've repeatedly pointed out, was open at the beginning of this war. It doesn't sound like they've agreed anything else concrete. So, I mean, that's huge concessions by Donald Trump. He's paying them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Effectively worth quickly mentioning, who else was involved in these negotiations? Pakistan and Qatar, who we've heard repeatedly about. Shabaz Sharif was actually the Pakistani Prime Minister. He was actually the first person to announce the peace agreement on Sunday. He said, following intensive talks, we're pleased to announce the peace deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran have been reached. So, huge coup for Pakistan. Trump also praised, and I think this is interesting, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin for their help in reaching the settlement. So I suppose all kinds of back channels going on there. It's not something that we were massively aware of, but interesting to hear him reference those people and crucially, who wasn't involved in this? Israel. And we're going to come on to reactions now because they've been very, very, very unhappy with this deal. We're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after how Israel and Iran have been reacting.
- [17:26]
Kat and Nat
This is Kat and Nat from Katnat Unfiltered and this episode is sponsored by Michaels. Your destination for all things Birthday Parties. If you've ever planned a birthday celebration, you know it goes from cute idea to full on chaos real fast. The Party Shop at Michael's makes life easier with with over 4, 500 party supplies in 60 plus themes like Bluey, Rodeo, Soccer, Rainbow and more starting at just 99 cents. You can shop same day delivery or order online for pickup in store and they even do free helium inflation on select balloon styles. Michaels Everything. To celebrate anything, visit Michaels in store or shop online.
- [18:07]
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- [18:24]
Venetia Rainey
Listen to this Acast show ad free
- [18:27]
Brock Ciarlelli
on Amazon Music with your prime membership or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- [18:37]
Venetia Rainey
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest with me, Veneesh Shirani and Roland Oliphant.
- [18:43]
Roland Oliphant
I was speaking to an Israeli source and I had a very long chat with an Israeli official source recently. Ahead of this, the message from Jerusalem, as I understood, was very much deal is a bad idea, it's short sighted. Hormuz shouldn't be considered the main issue. The nuclear question should be considered the main issue. If you make a deal now, then they'll get a bomb, they'll rush for a bomb and then they'll close the strait again and you won't be able to do anything because they've got a bomb. And Donald Trump needs to go back and finish the job. The job needs to be finished. That's very much that has been the message from Jerusalem all the way through this and pretty clearly this morning. A large amount of I say disappointment is one word to describe the kind of sentiments coming out of me out of Israel today.
- [19:28]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, I think it's more like downright fury. I mean, Israeli opposition leaders are up in arms about this. So Gadi Eisenkourt, he's a former IDF chief, he's leader of a new opposition party called Yasha, and he's currently the frontrunner to replace Netanyahu at the elections in October. He said there was a vast gulf between the Israeli prime minister's empty promises of a total victory and the peace deal. Longtime Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz under no circumstances it's forbidden to agree to restrict Israel's freedom of action in Lebanon or a withdrawal that endangers the residents of the north. The emerging agreement with Iran appears to be a strategic failure that will require Israel to engage in diplomatic, military and legal struggles in the years to come, which only a broad Zionist government can lead to. They've said that they're not willing to link the conflict in Lebanon with the conflict in Iran. This is what Iran has been trying to do repeatedly over the last few weeks. It is another Iranian win.
- [20:17]
J.D. Vance
Exactly.
- [20:18]
Roland Oliphant
One of the options for Netanyahu is to try and sabotage the steel, perhaps, perhaps by bombing Beirut again, perhaps by
- [20:23]
Venetia Rainey
which they did over the weekend, and
- [20:24]
Roland Oliphant
perhaps by attacking Tehran. But there's Ronan Bergman of Wynnet, Israeli journalist that was writing today that his sources that was exactly why Benjamin Netanyahu bombed Beirut on Sunday. And that the assessment is that instead of sabotaging the deal actually spurred Donald Trump along to get this done. It had completely the opposite effect. And so that therefore the feeling is that the Israeli government is massively constrained here. They're probably going to have to go along with this deal, whether they like it or not. They can't really go back to war without the American. That was taken kind of, but not really go back to war without it. I was speaking to a friend of the podcast, Danny Sichrinovich, formerly of Israeli Military Intelligence, just before we came on, and we know he was never a fan of the war, but I mean, his assessment, this is a clear defeat, a catastrophe in terms of Israel, not just in terms of this war. In terms of Israeli strategy here, it's all gone wrong. You're coming out of the war with, as you said, Iran basically being paid to reopen the Straits of Hormon. There was no resolution of nuclear issue. The regime in place, the regime strengthened actually, by having stood up to a big attack from the outside world. Israel and the United States discredited amongst Gulf allies who are seen, because they're seen as destabilized in the region and perhaps above all, a massive rift with their principal ally, the United States. So a really, really grave, serious strategic omnicrisis.
- [21:46]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah. And I think, fascinating. You mentioned Israel bombing Beirut over the weekend, potentially trying to torpedo the deal at the last minute. We're all expecting, and the Israelis certainly were expecting Iran to bomb them back, just like we had the weekend before, that sort of round of escalations. Iran didn't bomb them back, but it sounds like they asked at the last minute for a guarantee of Lebanon sovereignty and territorial integrity to be added to the Memorandum of Understanding. So they use that attack on Beirut as leverage to further increase their, let's call it the Hezbollah card. Because Iran is not interested in what's happening to the people of Lebanon. Let's make that super clear. They want to preserve their proxy party in Lebanon, Hezbollah. They want to make sure that terror group can keep fighting Israel whenever they need it to.
- [22:24]
Roland Oliphant
Israel Katz, the Israeli Defense Minister has made very clear today that Israel going to leave the territory it seized in southern Lebanon, that it will be cleared of residents and all terrorist infrastructure, including houses, and they will retaliate forcefully if Iran attacks Israel. So, you know, maybe they will refuse to withdraw, I don't know. But in the Israeli American relationship, America is the senior partner. And American presence have in the past really yanked the chain on the Israelis, including by threatening to cut off military aid. I believe Ronald Reagan did it at one point in the past. So depending on how ruthless Donald Trump wants to be, I don't really see how Netanyahu gets out of this one.
- [23:00]
Venetia Rainey
Well, attacks have been ongoing in southern Lebanon this morning according to Lebanon's state run news agency. I think the idea that Israel will stop fighting Hezbollah, particularly if Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli soldiers who will remain in southern Lebanon or, you know, firing drones into northern Israel is for the birds that war is going to continue, whether they manage to keep that separate from the Iran stuff. And Trump and Iran have managed to hash out some kind of deal where that low level conflict is allowed. Yeah, that's something that we will see probably really tested over the next few weeks. Let's get into how Iranians have responded to the deal because they are painting as a victory. But not everyone's happy, right?
- [23:34]
Roland Oliphant
Yes. So first the backlash. So hardline pro regime rallies have been seen. The aftermath of this news on the streets of Tehran chanting Trump is Khamenei's killer. Mr. Arakchi. They're referring to Abbas Arakchee, the Iranian Foreign Minister. Mr. Arakchee, if you make a deal, we will crush that deal and we will crush you beneath our feet. Aragchi be ashamed. Others called for the foreign minister to be executed as a compromiser. And this isn't really new. Okay, so proud. Abhizar actually has been a bit of a whipping boy for the hardliners. Essentially he's being held up as a compromiser. This deal is a compromise and it's bad news. Kai Han, a hardline newspaper with a headline, Please do not exchange military victory for diplomatic defeat. And the most, the most concrete articulation of why the hardliners are unhappy about this. This comes from Mahmoud Nabavian. He's one of the most prominent members of the Paidari Front who are the kind of never surrender revolutionary hardliner, die hards in the Iranian parliament. Now, he gave an interview on Sunday saying that if Iran signs this deal, we will effectively become a colony of the United States, adding that it would have to open the Strait of Hormuz, even for Israel. If we wanted to carry out even the smallest amount of uranium enrichment, we'd first have to obtain permission from the United States even for the purposes of producing medicine and, or electricity. The more signals of weakness we send, the closer war comes to us. And so on. Now, his main gripe actually seems to be the vagueness of the wording. So what, he's kind of turned around everything you've said about how this is a, this is a great American surrender. And he said, well, actually, look what the concrete things here. Well, the concrete thing is we open Hormuz and the Americans lift the blockade, fine, but everything else, when do we get our frozen assets back? When the sanctions going to be lifted? Oh, well, that's, that's vaguely linked to some kind of negotiations and we don't know how that going to go. There's apparently another clause in there that says America is going to withdraw its forces from Iran or the vicinity of Iran. He points out, well, how far? One inch, two inches, 100 miles? I don't know. I mean, presumably the Americans are not actually going to abandon their bases in the Gulf. And of course it's conceivable that those negotiations as we touched on, are never going to actually reach a deal. So what he's saying is that actually if you look at this, this is part of the language. One of the things he said was it looks like an American deal written in Iranian language. So it all looks very nice to us. But actually if you look at it, all those concrete things we wanted have been fudged. That's what he's saying. And he was on Twitter again today saying, look, I think the Iranian government has a duty to just clarify what all this means, because it's unclear. Does that mean a real rift? Well, the Paidaris are a bit of a fringe of a fringe, to be absolutely honest. And if a deal has been announced, it probably means that IRGC chief Ahmed Fahadi has said yes. So we're going to assume that the people who've actually got the guns and the people who are really in charge are on board with this. Therefore. So all that hardliner screaming in the background for now. I think probably the regime can kind of wear that for now. So that's the reaction in Iran.
- [26:32]
Venetia Rainey
Okay, so let's think about where this deal takes us potentially sort of according to the shape that we have right now. J.D. vance, the Vice President, was speaking yesterday. He called the agreement a big win. This is him talking to Fox News.
- [26:45]
J.D. Vance
If the Iranians comply with his deal, it is going to fundamentally transform the Middle east for the next 50 years. It's going to end the war. It's going to make the Middle east more investable. It's going to mean a lot of prosperity, lower energy prices for the American people. This region of the world has been a basket case for my entire life and longer than that. And what the president has really set us to do is to certainly eliminate the nuclear threat of Iran. That's done. But now possibly to build to a new era of Middle east prosperity and success where it's not a region of the world where the United States has to worry about so much, but where, frankly, we can generate a lot of prosperity for the American people out of that region. That's a very, very big win. And it all happened because the President stuck with it.
- [27:30]
Roland Oliphant
What he seems to be saying there is that if the Iranians keep up their side of the deal and they get rid of the nuclear stuff, then we can have a nice new peaceful arrangement. We can trade. Everyone's going to get richer. And this whole ridiculous confrontation that has been, you know, going on for years, since 1979, between the United States and Iran and all of its allies can finally be put to bed and we can coexist. I'm sure he wants that to be true, but it reminds me slightly of some of the rhetoric that has come out of the United States about, about Vladimir Putin's Russia as well, the idea that we could settle the war in Ukraine, we could start trading again, and. And everything's going to be hunky dory. I'm not sure I see the Iranian government as it is or who it is really wanting to peacefully coexist with the United States and particularly Israel. I stand to be corrected.
- [28:19]
Venetia Rainey
No, I think you're completely right. This is pie in the sky thinking that the Middle east is better off after this war than it was before. You know, we also had Trump talking about all these countries signing the Abraham Accords with Israel. That is not happening. You know what it reminds me of? It reminds me of the Gaza war deal. That war is continuing. And there was all this talk about reconstructing Gaza, making it, you know, a hub for industry. And there were these AI images with these tall, gleaming towers, like it was going to be another Dubai. If anyone's read the news about Gaza recently, it's very far from that. Aid is still struggling to get in. The Israeli presence is still there, 50%. I think Netanyahu wants to push it even further. You know, you have these appalling problems with water and rubbish. It's not a pretty situation that war is in a fudge space as well. And I think that's probably what we can expect here too. This is not a deal that has ironed out all of the real issues on the ground and we can have magical thinking about the Middle east being in a better place. Now, that is not the reality on the ground. And all of the players involved, they know that apart from America, maybe, who would like to turn its back on this conflict, return to domestic politics and think about the midterms. But if you're in the Middle east, if you're in the Gulf, if you're in Israel, if you're in Lebanon, if you're in Iran, you know that this conflict has left the entire region worse off.
- [29:36]
Roland Oliphant
But look, on the other hand, maybe there is something positive that could come out of this, which is that if Danny is right, this is a complete discrediting of the strategy of the Netanyahuite's strategy that's been going on for years. And if that kind of gets through into Iran as well, then it is just about possible that we can have a new approach or a new way of thinking to this issue. It definitely seems clear that the idea that you can bomb away the problem of Iran, which has been current for years and years, decades and decades, it's had its chance, it's been tested and it's failed. So somebody's got to come up with a perhaps a more serious approach. The second thing I'd say, I believe the foreign desk is looking at this this week. You know, the state of the nation of each of those three belligerent nations after war, Israel obviously. Really serious questions to be asked. An election coming up, real fatigue after three years of war, what does it mean for them in Iran? An absolutely immense cost of living crisis. A real question about who's in charge of what and whether or not they're going to be able to, you know, take the war away. Can they govern in this situation? And the environmental crisis continues. I just saw, I think it was far as news agency tweeting that the city of Zabul in south eastern Iran is today the hottest place in the world. It's about 47 degrees. So their water crisis, their drought, the climate change, all of that, they're going to struggle with all that as well. So there's huge stresses coming along down the line that all of these countries are going to have to get to grips with. So possibly they might set aside the bombs for a bit.
- [31:12]
Venetia Rainey
Well, I think that'd be good. And the final thing that we have to mention is the economy, the global economy. What do the markets think about all of this? Well, our business desk has asked them and the response was they're not quite experiencing euphoria. But the deal between the US And Iran has certainly given a solid boost to stocks and bonds around the world. So oil prices have dropped by nearly 5% to their lowest levels since mid April. Stocks have surged in Asia. Countries like Japan, South Korea really heavily dependent on the straightforward moves for energy. Interesting as well that Aragchi has been speaking with his counterpart in Japan. There's lots of links going on there. Asia has been really badly affected by all of this and global bond yields. So that's what governments pay when they borrow money. In financial markets, they've dropped sharply as a result of the fall in oil prices. So hopefully some of those inflationary pressures that we've seen will start to drop. But there's a long tail to this kind of stuff. Right? And we've spoken repeatedly about the impact of fertilizers not being properly exported out of the Strait of Hormuz and what that will do to food prices because farmers haven't been able to plant as much as they could and the impact that that will have in the coming year. Low supplies of helium as well as oil and gas and all of the energy stuff. So I think there'll be a lot of impacts to keep an eye on in the coming months if the Strait of Hormuz does properly open.
- [32:20]
Roland Oliphant
It's also not a simple switch, as we've spoken about. Oil fields have to be restarted, which can take a very long time. Things have to be repaired. Ships have to be brought in from where they are elsewhere in the world. It will take a while to get things back to normal. So it's not going to be straight back to normal. We will see if anybody can afford a summer holiday.
- [32:38]
Venetia Rainey
That's all for today's episode of Iran. The latest. We're now in full video. You can follow the links in our show Notes to subscribe on YouTube and you can watch us. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye, Goodbye.
- [32:54]
Roland Oliphant
Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Roland Olyphant and Venetia Rainey. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest in your preferred podcast app and if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondents on the ground, sign up to our new daily newsletter Cables via our website or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine. The Latest. We are still on the same email address battlelinestelegraph.co.ukcom. or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show. Notes the producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.
- [33:40]
Kat and Nat
This is Kat and Nat from Catnat Unfiltered and this episode is sponsored by Michaels. Your destination for all things Birthday Parties. If you've ever planned a birthday celebration, you know it goes from cute idea to full on chaos real fast. The party shop at Michael's makes life easier with over 4, 500 party supplies in 60 plus themes like Bluey Rodeo, Soccer, Rainbow and more starting at just 99 cents. You can shop same day delivery or order online for pickup in store and they even do free helium inflation on select balloon styles. Michaels everything. To celebrate anything, visit Michaels in store or shop online. Now
- [34:23]
Roland Oliphant
ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend.
- [34:32]
Venetia Rainey
I'm Eden Scher.
- [34:33]
Brock Ciarlelli
And I'm Brock Ciarlelli.
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Kat and Nat
We played best friends on the Middle
- [34:36]
Brock Ciarlelli
and became best friends in real life.
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Kat and Nat
We're here to rewatch the Middle with all of you.
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Brock Ciarlelli
Each week we'll recap an episode with behind the scenes stories, guest interviews and what we think now, many years later,
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Kat and Nat
there's a lot to dive into. So let's get to middling.
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Roland Oliphant
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