Iran: The Latest
Episode Title: Two weeks of Iran war: Who's winning and losing?
Podcast: Iran: The Latest (The Telegraph)
Date: March 13, 2026
Host: Roland Oliphant
Guests: Akhtar McCoy (Foreign Correspondent), David Blair (Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator), Jonathan Hackett (Former US Marine Intelligence Operative)
Episode Overview
This episode marks the 14th day of the American and Israeli war with Iran, offering in-depth analysis and expert commentary on both the military and political dynamics of the conflict. With updates from inside Iran and expert military perspectives, the episode explores:
- Iran’s retaliatory strategy and its effects
- The enigmatic new supreme leader and regime stability
- The impact on global oil and economic security
- Military objectives, tactics, and alliance divergence
- The outlook for escalation—including potential street protests, nuclear risks, and involvement of proxies
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Enigmatic New Supreme Leader and Regime Continuity
[01:51 – 05:55]
- Roland Oliphant opens with recent events (US/Israeli attacks, casualties, and new Iranian leadership).
- Akhtar McCoy explains the ambiguous status of Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, who became supreme leader following his father’s death but hasn’t made any public appearance or issued direct communication.
"We haven't seen him since last summer, and we haven't heard any voice message, any video from him since he became the supreme Leader on Sunday." – Akhtar McCoy (03:33)
- The regime functions as designed to operate without direct leadership: the IRGC, police, and intelligence can continue “without receiving an order from above.”
- Strong IRGC influence: Mojtaba is seen as imposed by the IRGC, with top commanders having no communication with him.
"Top commanders in the IRGC have not heard from Mojtaba Khamenei. Literally, no one." – Roland Oliphant & Akhtar McCoy (04:47)
2. Iran’s Retaliation: Imposing Costs and Shaping the Conflict
[05:55 – 10:00]
- David Blair outlines Iran's pre-planned strategy to retaliate strongly if threatened, leveraging its large ballistic missile arsenal.
- The current war has created historically unmatched oil supply shocks. Iran’s goal is to maximize costs for the US and global markets.
"The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market… This is the worst we've ever had." – David Blair (06:35)
- Iran is following a pre-published, phased plan by the IRGC, with the current focus on shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Notable Quote:
"For them, the endgame is to make the war very expensive for the Americans and the Israelis so they come forward and ask for ceasefire, and then you win. That's the way of winning in the Islamic Republic." – Akhtar McCoy (08:00)
3. The Impact of Retaliation and Regime's Apparent Confidence
[10:00 – 12:39]
- Blair identifies three reasons for Iranian encouragement:
- Regime survival, even as supreme leader’s status is uncertain
- Successful imposition of economic pain, notably $100+/barrel oil
- US unpreparedness—low oil reserves and insufficient naval forces
- However, two caveats: unclear revolutionary risk and unknown remaining Iranian munitions.
- US claims that Iranian missile and drone launches are down 90% and 83%, respectively—but the Iranians’ actual capability is unclear.
4. Internal Protest Dynamics
[12:39 – 14:04]
- The security apparatus is executing forceful control:
- Explicit threats from police and IRGC against potential protesters (“Our boys have their hands ready on the trigger.” – Cmdr. Ahmad Reza Radhandi (12:58))
- Streets are dominated by regime supporters after nightly mobilizations promoted on state TV.
5. Civilian Perspective from Tehran
[14:04 – 15:53]
- Akhtar McCoy shares direct messages from Tehran residents after morning bombardments—descriptions of fear, trauma, and devastation.
- Nearly 1,300 civilians killed so far, including 200 children; many cannot escape the city despite evacuation orders; daily life (increasing prices, little water) is dire.
"Tehran shook in such a way that at first I jumped from a sleep thinking an earthquake had come. ...Very, very terrible. I'm scared. They are leveling Tehran to the ground." – Message from a Tehran resident (14:24)
6. The Next Stages: The Proxy War and Nuclear Concerns
[15:53 – 20:27]
Houthi Involvement (Red Sea)
- Houthis have not yet intervened in the war; both Iranian sources and Yemeni analysts see Houthi entry as a potential next escalation phase.
Missing Highly-Enriched Uranium
- Iran’s stockpile (440kg at 60% enrichment) possibly buried under bombed sites; difficult and dangerous to recover or remove.
- Before the war, there were avenues for diplomacy (Iran was prepared to negotiate away the stockpile in exchange for concessions), now lost to escalation.
7. Terrorist Retaliation Risks
[20:27 – 22:14]
- While Iran has attempted attacks abroad in the past, experts emphasize the distinction between intent (certain) and capability (unclear for operations in the US specifically).
- Religious endorsement for revenge, including calls by senior ayatollahs for the killing of Donald Trump.
"Both grand ayatollahs...called for jihad and said there should be revenge. They have the religious authority for that now—a fatwa." – Akhtar McCoy (21:38)
The Military Review: Tactics & Strategic Gaps
[23:26 – 47:46]
Guest: Jonathan Hackett (US Marine vet, intelligence operative)
1. American Strategic Friction
[23:26 – 27:25]
- US commanders frustrated by shifting political objectives from Washington; lack of clear, consistent end goals hampers military effectiveness.
- Divergence in Israeli and US objectives: US focuses on military targets (missile sites, facilities), Israel’s interest may be regime change.
- Resource constraints (missiles, planes) limit sustained US air campaigns; Israel adapts with drone swarms and different tactics.
"There's a creep of other objectives in, which are not necessarily US objectives… Israel is looking at a politically focused campaign, where the outcome is regime change—if that's not the same thing the US has, you're going to see a continuing divergence." – Jonathan Hackett (25:41)
2. The Mosaic Doctrine: Iranian Decentralization
[29:14 – 31:25]
- Iran’s “Mosaic Doctrine” ensures that military authority is pushed to the provincial level; each of the 31 provinces has an IRGC unit that operates independently of central command, allowing resilience against leadership decapitation.
- Decentralized, autonomous IRGC forces function even amid communication blackouts, enabling ongoing resistance.
"When they killed the chief of staff of the armed forces and the IRGC commander, there actually was no effect on those IRGC units . . . those objectives are set in advance." – Jonathan Hackett (29:54)
3. Strategic Shortcomings and Potential Escalations
[32:01 – 36:31]
- US lacks non-military components (political/diplomatic/economic) in strategy—can only achieve “operational level successes,” not strategic victory.
- Failure to secure strategic assets (e.g., Carg Island, crucial for oil exports) means Iran is economically thriving, despite strikes.
- US is poorly equipped for key missions (e.g., mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz) due to decommissioned vessels; lack of foresight in planning for eventualities plainly stated by Iran in their media.
"…It wasn't a secret what they were planning to do." – Roland Oliphant (35:57)
4. The Failure of Intelligence and Cultural Misunderstandings
[36:31 – 41:37]
- Structural issues prevent the use of linguistic and cultural expertise: reports on Iran are often written by people who do not understand Farsi or local mindsets, contributing to misreads and intelligence failures.
- Institutional “mirror-imaging” (assuming the enemy thinks like you) leads to faulty strategic assumptions.
"Almost everyone does not speak that language. Second of all, even if they did...they're not reading what the other side is saying in their own language." – Jonathan Hackett (36:31)
5. The Covert War: Asset Networks and Israeli Operations
[41:37 – 46:00]
- Israeli covert ops heavily rely on local assets (e.g., Mujahideen-e-Khalq), not Israeli agents, to guide drones and execute targeted strikes, especially in urban police/Basij checkpoints—potentially setting the stage for regime change.
- Recent Israeli strikes may be a test phase before expanding operations targeting regime “center of gravity,” not just top leadership but lower-level armed apparatus that prevents protests.
6. The Regime’s Endurance: Understanding Motivation
[47:46 – 52:29]
- Regime’s endurance is rooted in the martyrdom ethos—sacrifice for group over individualism, a sharp contrast with Western frameworks.
"Martyrdom is a positive thing…sacrifice does something for the group they belong to…and in his death to them, he sacrificed for them, he gave for them." – Jonathan Hackett (48:33)
- Crackdown and fear—plus basic survival needs—limit civilian engagement in regime change; meaningful transformation depends on empowering ordinary Iranians rather than military force alone.
"The conflict is not with bullets. The conflict is at the dinner table." – Jonathan Hackett (52:29)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- "If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on earth, we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation, and we will kill you." – President Trump (01:11)
- "The body can continue without the head." – Akhtar McCoy, on regime resilience (04:18)
- "They are leveling Tehran to the ground." – Tehran resident message (14:24)
- "Both grand ayatollahs...called for jihad and said there should be revenge." – Akhtar McCoy (21:38)
- "You can't kill an idea...the people that can actually change something are not empowered to do so." – Jonathan Hackett (51:13)
Important Timestamps
- 01:51: Episode introduction, recent events, and panel assembled
- 02:49: Discussion of new leader Mojtaba Khamenei and regime structure
- 06:07: Analysis of Iran’s retaliation and oil market impact
- 10:00: Assessment of Iranian confidence and cost-imposition strategy
- 12:58: Regime’s preparation and threats against protests
- 14:24: Civilian accounts from bombed Tehran
- 16:18: Houthi involvement as a potential “next stage”
- 17:50: Nuclear material question and risk discussion
- 20:27: Terrorism, “fatwa” for revenge, and Iranian intentions
- 23:26: Jonathan Hackett on US strategic objectives and alliance divergence
- 29:14: Mosaic Doctrine, Iranian decentralized military resilience
- 33:53: US preparedness (or lack thereof) for mine-clearing, securing Hormuz
- 41:37: Covert war, Israeli operations relying on local assets
- 47:46: Regime survival, cultural differences, and limitations of military solutions
- 52:29: Final remarks—real conflict at the level of daily life, not just military force
Conclusion
This episode offers a nuanced, ground-level and strategic account of the first two weeks of war between the US/Israel and Iran. Through a blend of on-the-ground reporting, insider analysis, and listener questions, it explores why the regime endures, what’s at stake for regional stability, the substantial economic/global shock, and why both military and non-military factors will determine the war's trajectory.
Essential takeaway: Despite massive destruction, regime resilience persists—thanks to decentralized command, group solidarity, and control tactics—while the West struggles with unclear objectives and underestimates both Iranian capabilities and cultural motivations.