← Iran: The Latest
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- [00:04]
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- [00:40]
Roland Oliphant
I'm Roland Oliphant.
- [00:41]
Venetia Rainey
And I'm Venetia Rainey.
- [00:42]
Roland Oliphant
And this is Iran. The latest it is Thursday 16th July, 2026 is day 25 of the 60 day deadline for Iran and the United States to reach a peace deal.
- [00:52]
Venetia Rainey
On today's episode, we're going to be looking at the US Expanding its strikes into northern Iran where it's been targeting ballistic missile production capabilities. And we're going to ask if some sor of ground offensive is becoming increasingly likely in the strait of Hormuz.
- [01:05]
Roland Oliphant
Plus, I've spoken to Ali Milburn, a former U.S. marine colonel, about Iran's theory of victory, its mosaic doctrine, and whether he thinks sending troops in would be a good idea.
- [01:18]
Donald Trump
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [01:25]
Pura Advertiser
Today, President Trump says Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.
- [01:36]
Roland Oliphant
The Pentagon is weighing a takeover of that island as a way to force the reopening of the street of Hormuz.
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Andy Milburn
Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it. Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle east permanently?
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Roland Oliphant
Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?
- [01:57]
Donald Trump
Come on.
- [02:01]
Roland Oliphant
But first, a look at where we are today. Venetia, what's been happening?
- [02:04]
Venetia Rainey
So sixth day running now of strikes. The US has carried out a fresh wave overnight targeting northern Iran for the first time. So explosions were reported near Tehran capital city. The Saman province, which is home to Iran's ballistic missile production and space program, also reported explosions in the coastal areas that we've been seeing this week. Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Syriac Qeshm in southern Iran, air defenses triggered in Tehran. As I said, centcom's statements said that they struck Iranian command centers, air defence sites, missile and drone capabilities and coastal surveillance facilities to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten innocent mariners crewing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. So again, always citing that Strait of Hormuz thing, they're trying to make this quite specific about that conflict rather than the war completely restarting Interestingly, as part of that, they struck the Greater Tumb island, which we've covered earlier in this podcast.
- [02:58]
Roland Oliphant
Yeah, so Tumb, the Greater and Lesser Tombs, and Abu Musa are three islands just on the inner side, the kind of western side of the, of the Strait of Hormuz. And technically they belong to the United Arab Emirates under international law, but they were occupied by the Shah of Iran in 1971. Basically, almost as soon as the Brits pulled out of what became the United Arab Emirates, the Iranians thought, very nice, we'll have that. And the revolutionary government didn't give up their claim. But there's still, it's a very interesting little anomaly there, still technically claimed by the uae. And at the beginning of the war, we were looking, we were theorizing about whether one win for Trump might be to seize those, hand them back to their rightful owners, and therefore be, I know, be seen as an administrator of international justice in some way. I don't know whether these strikes presage any such operation, but an interesting development.
- [04:00]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, well, we'll get onto that in a little bit more depth later. Worth saying that on the ground. In Iran, deaths are now rising from these strikes. So at least 35 people killed and more than 300 injured in the recent strikes. According to Tehran's Health Ministry. They said that a woman and a teenager were amongst those killed in the recent attacks. The areas of Hormgazan, Sistan, Baluchistan and Khuzestan suffered the most damage in the recent strikes. And in the western city of Avaz, apparently more than 200 people, including child cancer patients who are receiving chemotherapy treatment, have been evacuated from a hospital after a US strike nearby. Tehran's Ministry of Foreign affairs spokesperson Ismail Bakai, he called it a barbaric attack which caused severe suffering.
- [04:41]
Roland Oliphant
Meanwhile, over in the Strait of Hormuz itself, the. The US Blockade is very much back in place. They announced that the day before yesterday's evening. They said, it's back. We're blockading again. Ships going to or from Iranian ports. Their first action as part of that blockade appears to have happened overnight. CENTCOM say they disabled a Kurokao flagged unladen oil tank, an empty oil tanker, as it was trying to sail towards Kharg island, which is, of course, Iran's main oil terminal up in the northern part of the Persian Gulf. They said they fired Hellfire missiles into the ship's smokestack after it ignored multiple warnings and no reports on whether or not any crew members were injured, although we have seen, we have seen Sailors killed in these US attacks on shipping in the past. Since resuming the blockade against her on Tuesday, the Americans say they've also redirected two ships. You know, any semblance of that, that brief new normal that we were, we saw with the signing of the MOU has gone entirely. The blockade and the blockade of the blockade are back on. Shipping figures show just nine vessels crossed the waterway on Wednesday, mostly on the so called Iranian route, that northern route, kind of Kesham, which the IRGC is insisting that people take down from 13 the previous day. The Wall Street Journal reporting that some tanker captains have refused to transit through the strait in recent days, which I think is pretty understandable. And India's government has ordered ship owners not to deploy Indian crew members on vessels that require passing through the Strait of Hormuz after two of their nationals were killed in attacks. The body of one missing Indian sailor was actually recovered yesterday. And as we know, Indian sailors in particular, there's a lot of Indians on these, on these vessels, crewing these vessels and they've taken quite a few casualties, sadly. Oil prices rising again. Brent crude trading around $85 a barrel yesterday, but we're still very far from that. That peak of $120 at the height of the conflict. And I'm really not the person to talk to about, you know, markets and so on, but it seems to me steel, the market for some reason is. What's the word they use? They bake things in markets. They sound a bit more like cooks in a kitchen anyway, baking in or calculating or something, some kind of resolution to this. They don't seem to be predicting some kind of utter enormous collapse of the oil trade for whatever the reason.
- [07:17]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts. And as we've seen every day this week, Iran has this morning hit back against US bases across the Gulf. So fresh attacks on radar and defence systems at military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's military said it has intercepted drone attacks. Bahrain's ministry has said that air defence systems have intercepted and destroyed a number of treacherous Iranian airstrikes. They've told citizens to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place. The Iranian military has also said it's targeted American communication systems and fuel storage facilities in Jordan as part of this latest round of strikes. They're calling it operation Lightning, the 10th phase of a retaliatory operation. This is according to Iranian state media. We've had lots of fiery comments this morning. So the Iranian military spokesperson has warned that the war in Iran will spread to New arenas. If American attacks continue, this is their quote. A significant portion of the armed forces capacities and capabilities have not yet been demonstrated. And if any hostile action against the country continues, Iran's response will be proportionate to the circumstances and beyond the enemy's predictions, new arenas of confrontation will emerge. Maybe they're referring to the Bab El Mandab straits that we were speaking about yesterday. They've also called the Strait of Hormuz their inviolable red line. So I think we can expect continuing action for as long as America is trying to defend this Trump.
- [08:31]
Roland Oliphant
Donald Trump, President of the United States. He told reporters that Iran better behave. I don't like giving deadlines, but they pretty much know they know the story. They better behave, he said. A consistent message, I would say, from Trump there. Mohammed Gallabaef, Iran's top negotiator, speaker of Parliament, former mayor of Tehran, all round, kind of big jolly. Tony Soprano of Tehran. He told state media that Tehran has no reason to abide by the mou that did not benefit the country. And he added that Iran's national security depended on maintaining what he described as Iranian arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially means they are not backing down from. We're going to charge fees and this is our straight. That's the sticking point here. And they're saying they're not going to bend on that.
- [09:28]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, we're in this escalation ladder situation, aren't we, where each side is trying to do a slightly longer bombing campaign or hit slightly broader targets, more significant targets. It's hard to see where this stops. No signs, as you say, of either side backing down, at least in the public statements. No signs of talks that are going to be held to resurrect this MOU that we're still tracking the 60 day deadline of. I guess the big question is something that keeps coming up now, will this lead to some kind of limited ground campaign? There's an increasing number of people saying that maybe this is needed to put an end to the escalation, although personally I would question that logic. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday evening and one of the options discussed was the something we heard way back in the beginning of this war, American troops seizing Kharg island, which as you mentioned, is Iran's main oil export terminal and potentially other territory along the Strait. They also discussed potentially bombing the tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain. Something we should come back to in another podcast, a nuclear linked site that hasn't been targeted so far in this war. Trump was asked about potential ground operations at that scenario on Fox News earlier this week. This is what he said. You're ruling out a ground campaign in a limited capacity?
- [10:38]
Donald Trump
I don't want to say that either, but I would say no if I, if I thought it was appropriate. Sometimes you need a ground campaign, but we have other people that will do the ground campaign for us. But we already hit Cargill and as you know, twice, even three times, I said hit everything but the oil. Just leave that Little area. From 25 yards out, leave that little area, don't touch the oil, because I don't want that. In terms of the world economy, it's a, you know, it's a chunk of the world economy. So we haven't hit that. At some point we could, but I think it's unlikely as far as taking it is concerned. If we degrade them far enough and deep enough back, I would do that.
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Venetia Rainey
Roland, you spoke to Andy Milburn about this, which will be coming up later in this episode, or if you're watching us on YouTube, separate video that we'll link to in the show. Notes, what did he have to say so on this?
- [11:27]
Roland Oliphant
Andy, of course, is a former colonel in the U.S. marines in the part of the Marines called the Raiders. I think he knows about amphibious warfare. It's what they do. He seemed to think this was not a very good idea, and I'd advise listeners to listen to the interview. He articulates it much better than I can. He was essentially saying, look, even if it's unopposed, an amphibious landing is a risky thing to do. So there's a huge amount of risk there. So you're quite likely to lose people if it is opposed, which carries political risk for Trump anyway because it's already not a popular war. And the other point, he said, look, just putting Marines on the beach is only one very small part of the operation. Then you've got to sustain them, you've got to keep them. And they're going to be on an island, you know, sitting ducks, essentially well within range of, of Iranian retaliation. And to what end and how long are they going to be to be stuck there? So he was saying from, from a purely military point of view, he didn't see the rationale for doing this, thought it would be very ill advised. But as I say, you can listen to Andy himself articulate that in much more sophisticated terms.
- [12:40]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, it was a really good interview. Definitely stay tuned to this podcast or switch over to the other YouTube video to watch it. It does seem a stretch to imagine sending ground troops in when we've seen that the American administration doesn't have the political will to take on potential losses from sending in naval assets into the Strait of Hormuz itself. And they still haven't done that. I think there some naval assets that have been moved out, but they haven't sent them in to try and escort ships to try and fight the Iranians there. They've been conducting the military campaign remotely. So the idea of putting troops on the ground in Cog island or some other territory along Iran's coastline seems a stretch to me. But we did have David Blair on this podcast, I think, a couple of months ago, saying that that might be where this has to lead to land a final kind of punch that they haven't landed yet.
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Roland Oliphant
Yeah, and we were discussing this right way back at the beginning of the war, and we started looking at Kharg and we started looking at the Greater and Lesser Tombs. There's Kesham and there's some other islands around there. And, you know, we've looked at how it would be done, what the, what the options would be. I mean, Andy tells me it probably wouldn't be guys storming up the beach from those landing craft like on D day. It'd probably be an aerial insertion.
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Venetia Rainey
Right.
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Roland Oliphant
You know, via helicopter ospreys or something. So, so there's ways to do it and, and, and so on. But the question is kind of what, what end state do you achieve? Okay, you capture Kharg island and then what is that? What forces the Iranians to surrender or come to terms? Or do they just bombard your garrison with rockets until you're suffering probably presumably quite heavy casualties? So a real debate. But it's been surfacing ever since the war began.
- [14:24]
Venetia Rainey
Two final stories to flag before we wrap up. So we had the US mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel in Italy this week. We've come to a close. No clear outcome, though the US State Department has said the talks were positive and they're still looking implementing these pilot zones that we're talking about. And a reminder, that would involve the Israeli military withdrawing from little areas and the Lebanese national army moving into those areas to make sure that Hezbollah doesn't reinsert itself. Not clear what status that's at. They're clearly still looking at it. Last night we had the Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, telling his counterpart in America, Pete Hegseth, that Israel is determined to keep its forces in the security zones in Leban as well as in Syria and Gaza. So no real movement on that. Yet finally, Iran has released an American citizen who has been detained in the country since 2024. I didn't have this on my bingo card. Dana Khorari was banned from leaving Iran after she went there to visit some family in 2024. Apparently, she's now safe and traveling back to the United States. Trump has said it was a gesture of goodwill by Iran.
- [15:24]
Roland Oliphant
I think that's a little bit interesting. I mean, that means they are talking.
- [15:27]
Venetia Rainey
There's clearly back channels.
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Roland Oliphant
Yeah, no, I mean, I mean, Donald Trump said so yesterday, in fact, when he was talking to trains from fo, he said Trey asked him, you know, when did you last speak to the Iranians? He said, well, I haven't personally, but one of my people spoke to him like about an hour ago. And his message was that he was frustrated with the Iranians because they keep saying we want a deal and yet behaving in a different way. So talks are clearly going on. That's a classic kind of gesture of goodwill, as he says, you know, to release a hostage. Essentially, the Iranians are masters of political hostage taking. So that is a sign that there are talks going on. But I must say I have a slight bit of sympathy with Donald Trump's frustration here because I think there has always been, and I think if you talk to any kind of Western diplomat who's been involved in talks with the Iranians over the years, there's always this kind of a good cop, bad cop act with the Iranians. And I think that I'm sure they have all kinds of reasons to fire back. And I know that Donald Trump bombed them twice in the middle of negotiations and so on. But it's a familiar refrain you'll hear from Westerners who've had to deal with the Iranians. There's the good cop, there's the Abbas Arakchi and Javad Zarif and so on. And then there's the bad cops back home. And what do you get? Are we agreeing to the same thing or not? So I can see where his frustration comes from.
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Venetia Rainey
We're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after the break, Rowland's interview with Andy Milburn.
- [17:13]
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- [17:58]
Roland Oliphant
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest with me, Roland Olefin. The war between the United States and Iran seems to have picked up again. But who is winning? Has one of them managed to salvage some kind of a victory out of the apparent stalemate that we see in front of us? Well, Andy Melbourne, a former United States Marine colonel, thinks one side has been able to achieve more of what he calls a theory of victory than the other. He's someone who knows what he's talking about. He served for years in the US Marines and raised to death deputy commander of their Special Forces division, and he spent a lot of that time in the Middle East. So without further ado, here is our conversation. I suppose there was a kind of period of a couple of weeks where we thought that the active phase of the war was over. And we are in the phase of drawn out, strained, slightly dull negotiations. But the past few days have seen basically a return to not quite the same scale of combat and without the Israelis involved, but nonetheless open conflict between the United States and Iran. Once again, America striking Iran and Iran striking US Bases across the region, neighboring countries. What's your, what's your feeling about where this is going?
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Andy Milburn
This specific targeting that the US Is doing now has much narrower focus than during the war. It's specifically focused on those assets likely to impede passage of movement through Hormuz, small boats, missile launches. But look, we talked about this actually during the last podcast. These are tremendously difficult targets to knock out. It's almost impossible through an air campaign to reduce the threat to Hormuz by however narrow you put that focus of targeting. Even if you have, as we've seen, two of the most technologically advanced countries in the world conducting that targeting. And there are a number of reasons the Iranians are adept at hiding missile launches. Missile launches are relatively especially solid fuel. Missile launchers are relatively easy to hide, especially in a country the size of Iran. And of course, you can strike Hormuz from anywhere in Iran. You don't need to be along the coast. The Iranians use decoys. It's really difficult to conduct not just target acquisition, but battle damage assessment from the air. Drones add a whole different dimension. Of course, the kamikaze drones that the Iranians are using are again, they can be set up, launched from cold, from a concealed position in no time at all. And the Iranians doubtless don't conveniently store them in one location. Right. And small boats, similarly. I mean, there are places up and down the coastline, in the water, on shore, where you can conceal small boats which are, again, you know, drones and boats, difficult to find using radar, much more difficult with any type of imagery. So the problem set is really. It's a tough one. We've seen this with the Houthis, Right. How many times have the uk, Israel, I mean, you've got three of the. Three of the world's most capable militaries going after the Houthis. And I don't want to make comments that may be misinterpreted here, but not a vastly technologically advanced force. And nevertheless, they still cannot stop the Houthis from popping up and threatening ships and Banda Almende. So you've got a much bigger problem in Hormuz. And, you know, you hear time and again how narrow the waterway is, how tankers have very. I mean, it's what, four miles total with counting both lanes? Tankers take a long time to turn. They're not maneuverable, and they're very easy targets. Right. And so I'm talking about offensive action. Are you talking about clearing, keeping the straits open? And, you know, I'm not a Navy guy. I'm a Marine Naval service. But nevertheless, you know, I understand the problems here. You've got to clear the mines, and I haven't even talked about mines. You know, the arenas have a full spectrum of mines. Yeah. And mines have been a problem since the Gulf War. Right. We in the west, specifically United States, have not learned this lesson as mines get more advanced, you know, they're not. They're not just all these spiky things floating in the water. They can lie on the seabed, they can be activated by acoustics and attach themselves to ships. They're very difficult to clear. You need specific types of ships to do that. I'm stating the obvious. Mine hunters. The US Got rid of their minehunters in December of last year in the region and don't have a capability that has replaced that, to be honest with you. So even superpowers need allies when it comes to capabilities like this. Mine hunting just is not a very sexy type of operation. So it's kind of been ignored largely within the U.S. navy. I'm going to be attacked for saying that, but it is the truth. So to clear the straits, you've got to focus on the mine piece first, and then you put in your destroyers and your cruisers to provide surface escorts. You need constant air coverage, everything from fixed wing aircraft to UAVs. The US already has an unprecedented number of ships in the region. Two aircraft carriers, at least 20 surface vessels, untold number of aircraft, most of our high end UAV fleet. I say you collectively, God forbid a war breaks out somewhere else. Because all of these assets right now are pooled in the Middle east and are focused on this one problem set and will be indefinitely for as long as Iran holds that at threat. And that's the issue here. Because the solution again is not military. Pains me to say that as a Marine, but it's not. Because all these assets are going to be tied down and meanwhile they can't make the Straits of Hormuz risk free unless Iran really agrees not to strike ships, right? So all the knock on effects continued, the higher insurance rates, the effect on the global economy. That is I think why you're going to continue to see the US administration wanting to get back to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the Iranians are pretending, maybe they're not pretending, that they just, they don't care.
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Roland Oliphant
That's the message from Tehran, isn't it? I suppose the hope in Washington is that this new round of strikes will cool their bluff and it is going to hurt. And the Iranians are going to think, well, okay, all right, fine, we are going to have to. Because as you said, I suppose at the beginning, you know, it hasn't been a massive triumphant victory for them. Even if they've come out ahead in this war, they've taken a lot of pain, right?
- [25:10]
Andy Milburn
The US cannot continue these strikes indefinitely. All right? I mean, there's problems with limited inventory of precision guided munitions, all right? We've seen it in US's support of, of Israel. And what Iran is doing at the same time is very clever. Since the end of March, Iranian drones and missiles have been hitting US air bases. In fact, I think it happened today in Jordan, right, hitting U.S. air bases, Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, bases in ua, Bahrain and Jordan. And they've been focusing on the assets, the high value, low density assets that are required for an air campaign. The command and control assets, the tankers, the KC135 tankers, the radar, all of these things. That's what's being targeted. And they've exacted considerable attrition on these assets. We use the term center of gravity and then we have critical requirements that feed into that center of gravity. So the center of gravity for the US and Israel is the conventional military power, specifically Air power. Right. But the critical requirements are all these things, the KC135s, the E3 Sentries, the Radar acquisition. Radar. And that is what Iran is going after. And there's only a limited number of those things. Right. The U.S. probably has more than 50% of all these assets that it owns in the region right now are vulnerable to Iranian attack. So that is a concern. So it's not as though that the US is in a position to continue this air campaign indefinitely.
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Roland Oliphant
Sobering thought. I want to ask you as a Marine, a while ago, I suppose back in March when this began, there was a lot of talk about the potential amphibious options about whether America would consider landing perhaps on Kharg island or Kesham island or even on the, on the Iranian mainland at Bandar Abbas or something like that. And there was some suggestion from some quarters that that's what you would have to do to, you know, secure the coast if you really want to open the, the strait. Now that the battle for the Strait of Hormuz is back on in some sense, do you think those options are back on the table? And do you think it's at all likely that, that we might end up seeing the President opt for putting boots on the ground in that way?
- [27:37]
Andy Milburn
If I could give you a conclusive answer to that, I would be a multimillionaire on, I would go to Polymark. I never know know what's in the President's head. I would hope not. Amphibious operations are very high risk operations. Even when you think they're benign, they're high risk operations. Right. I mean for, for all kinds of reasons. And you start even, even if you are, as I probably would if I was a planner here, I wouldn't mess around with amphibious shipping. You know, I would use a long range heloborne insertion from perhaps Oman to get true boots on the ground. But then you've got to sustain them. You've got to have a logistics chain that becomes vulnerable if they're there for any period of time. And you've now you've got a force locked to terrain well within missile and drone range and anything that Iran wants to throw at them. And to what end? I would say what are they going to do there? You know, we talked about Cog island, landing them there to, to destroy the infrastructure, preventing Iran from using Car island, but that's kind of very limited utility. And again, high risk. You can't eliminate the threat to the Straits of Hormuz by landing troops anywhere. If you secure the whole coastline, the Iranians are still going to be able to lob missiles over the heads of your landing force. And now, again, you've just dangled your most vulnerable asset right within strike range of every IRGC commander who's been waiting exactly for this opportunity. Right. And again, it shows. Back to the Clausewitz thing, right? It shows. It would show a huge misunderstanding of the political aims of the war. All right? And, and by the old nature of the war, because it's not very popular, it's not a popular war in the United States, you can see that from the polls. You start losing troops on the ground, it becomes considerably less popular very, very quickly. And while the American public will turn a relatively blind eye to foreign adventurism as long as their sons and daughters are not involved, we don't have conscription, so it's not like Vietnam. And while Congress probably won't or is reluctant to impose on the executive when it comes to these things, when you start losing people and it hits the headlines, that's a different thing. Americans don't like seeing American bloodshed abroad, and they don't like seeing their wallets being directly affected. They're already seeing their wallets directly affected, and you start seeing American blood being shed, too. That's going to make the war even less popular at home. And you've got midterm elections coming up. I know people question how important that is to President Trump, but it's important to many of his acolytes. So, look, from a military standpoint, it will be a total disaster. And I only mentioned the political implications because I think, you know, you asked me if I think that's a possibility. I would say the political implications of this make it even less possible.
- [30:45]
Venetia Rainey
That was Andy milburn, a former U.S. marine colonel, speaking to my colleague and co host, Roland Oliphant. That was just an excerpt from the longer discussion. If you want to hear the full interview, please head over to YouTube. There's a link in the show Notes. That's all for today's episode of around the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye,
- [31:08]
Roland Oliphant
Iran. The Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Roland Oliphant and Venetia Rainey. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest in your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondents on the ground, sign up to our new daily newsletter, Cables, via our website or listen to our sister podcast, Ukraine. The Latest. We are still on the same email address, battlelinestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show. Notes the producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.
- [31:49]
Donald Trump
Foreign.
- [31:54]
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