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Sophia Yan
The telegraph.
Venetia Rainey
I'm Venetia Rainey.
Sophia Yan
And I'm Sophia Yan.
Venetia Rainey
And this is Iran the Latest. It's Monday, 10th of August, 2026.
Sophia Yan
On today's episode, Iran wants America to pay war reparations in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even as inside the country, inflation soars and its main oil export terminal goes dark.
Venetia Rainey
Plus, Houthi attacks are escalating, targeting a Red SE port and a Saudi oil refinery. We'll be looking at what it means.
Sophia Yan
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attack.
Venetia Rainey
For the first time ever, the US Navy used a surface sea drone in combat to strike Iranian targets. The strait are almost completely closed again. Does anyone really think that someone can
Sophia Yan
tell President Trump what to do?
Venetia Rainey
Come on. Let's start with what's happened in Iran over the weekend. So last week we were reporting on a potential deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And just a quick recap. The suggestion was that there would be inbound traffic via Iranian territorial waters and then traffic would go back out via Omani waters. Now, despite lots of statements, hints, rumours that deal hasn't yet been signed off. Instead, we actually had an attack on another commercial, that vessel over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz. This is an Abu Dhabi owned company that was transporting oil and gas. The vessel was fine, there was a fire on board, but it was put out quickly. And instead, that same day, we had a statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Mohammad Baghr Zolgada. He came out with a list of demands, not from Oman, but from America. And as we've been talking about, America weren't formally part of these negotiations, but it was becoming increasingly obvious that Iran wanted to squeeze a bit more out of Washington before it makes this huge concession of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is really what the deal to end the war has become about. So, Sophia, what are they asking Washington for?
Sophia Yan
Well, Iran wants the US to pay up to compensate for the war damage that's been sustained. They want sanctions to be completely lifted. Now, this has been something that Iran has pushed for, for a very long time. You see that in the MOU that was signed earlier, governing this period of time by which further talks are occurring. They want to have an unconditional release of assets that have been frozen. They want the naval blockade to be lifted, to never have a threat Again, against Iran, to withdraw the military, to stop the aggression against Iran's proxy groups, specifically in Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based. I mean, this is a long list of demands. It doesn't come as a surprise. These are things that Iran has for many years made clear that they would like to see happen in general, even in, not wartime, even during peacet. Iran has been very clear that they want to remove any specter of an American and Israeli threat. And so these issues, you know, the sanctions, frozen assets, being able to have access to any of that to help its economy would be really very, very important for the regime. Because as we've discussed on the podcast before, even once all of this is over, all said and done, the bombing campaigns stop, well, the regime within Iran has to deal with a public that's really very discontent. Because if you think back to the beginning of year, there were mass protests, a crackdown within Iran against those demonstrations. And that came about because the economy was in such dire straits.
Venetia Rainey
Yeah. And we've had Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbasa Ragchee, he's backed up that statement saying straightforward moves will not reopen until Washington meets Tehran's demands and addresses its, quote, violations of the June Memorandum of understanding. I'm a bit flummoxed as to why the Memorandum of Understanding is now coming back. Again, everyone said it was dead and buried, including the Iranians. But clearly all of those demands that you listed, they are, they were all in the mou. The big question, I guess, is what the Americans will do. Are there any signs of formal talks to address these issues at the moment?
Sophia Yan
Well, the U.S. or Trump in particular, has been saying that there are talks ongoing with Iran. Iran, of course, has denied this. It seems what's happening is intermediary, some sort of go between Iran and Oman, for instance, speaking about future management of Hormuz. Now, the US Is not going to want to give any sense that it's capitulating to these demands, of course, because their take is that this is continued because of Iranian aggression, whereas, of course, Iran would say the same about the Americans. So it seems that we're at a bit of an impasse that Iran can, can do this at this point. Again, it shouldn't be a surprise. These were demands that they had made clear before were at the very top of their priority list. And right now, what they want is to maintain the leverage that they've built up all this time, one of which, of course, amongst the strongest is their control over H moves. And so being able to drag out negotiations for Iran actually plays to its benefit. And it hurts Trump in the long term because, remember, in the US we're now just a few months out from the midterm elections. And so Trump is also thinking about how to manage his message within the domestic population, where a lot of people are starting to lose confidence and support. They're no longer supporting Trump to the same degree.
Venetia Rainey
I mean, to some extent, it wouldn't be any. You wouldn't think it'd be any skin off Trump's nose to agree to all of this stuff, because it was all in the mou. He already agreed to all of it. He was speaking to Axios over the weekend. He said the US Was semi negotiating with Iran, but would continue to apply economic pressure in the hopes of forcing negotiations. He said, we're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money. It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game. And he referenced the naval blockade as worsening Iran's economic crisis. And I just want to look at that specifically because inflation. We've had some fresh stats from Iran showing how bad things are getting there. So according to the latest figures from the Statistical center of Iran, the inflation index, eight of the 10 main food groups has exceeded the 100% barrier in July compared to July last year. At the top of that are oils and fats. So all cooking relies on oils and fats, obviously. So that's just over 260% inflation year on year. Dairy products such as milk and cheese, as well as beef, lamb and chicken, all nearly 150% inflation. Bread and cereals, more than 115%. Al Jazeera spoke to a grocery store owner in northern Tehran. He said, I've been a Merchant for over 40 years and I've never seen conditions like this, even during the years of the Iran Iraq war. So that's the 80s. The markets maintained a minimum level of daily purchasing activity. But today, the market has reached a state of clinical death. And it's clearly quite significant because we had Masoud Pejoshkian, the Iranian president, on Saturday. He was talking about the cost of living crisis, and he's been blaming the US for the difficulties. And the naval blockade is starting to cause problems again for Iran, isn't it?
Sophia Yan
Yeah, the blockade is. It's leading to falling oil exports for Iran, and Iran's economy, of course, so dependent on this particular natural resource, much of which would have gone through Hormuz itself. So Windward, a maritime intelligence firm has said that Iran's crude export pipeline on its main oil export terminal on Kharg Island. This is at a quote, complete halt given the US military's blockade of Iranian ports. And all three of the terminals on that island are sitting empty. That there are 17 dark tankers, their transponders are turned off, they've remained stationary. And so just as much as Iran is squeezing the rest of the world by using this card, this Hormuz card to hit the economy, the global economy, it's also affecting Iran negatively. Now I'm just going to read a quote here from Windward. They say that this pattern is consistent with a blockade driven export halts, no loadings, no departures and a dark queue that isn't moving. Now Centcom 2 US Central Command has also talked about this blockade. Over 20 US warships deployed to the Middle east supporting military missions. This includes a strict enforcement of course, for the US blockade against Iran. As of 9 August, Centcom has redirected 55 commercial vessels disabled to and boarded to to ensure compliance. This is what the US military is putting forward in terms of its activities in Hormuzzi.
Venetia Rainey
That's really interesting. I mean, I guess the main point of contention here, those are all, you know, those are all facts. The main point of contention is to what extent will this force Iran to surrender, surrender more quickly to America to commit to capitulate on some American demands. And there you have really wide range of views. You know, a lot of people point to Iran's economy and say, oh, they're nearly on their knees. But I would suggest looking at the case of Russia where people have said that repeatedly over the course of the Russia, Ukraine war and they're not on their knees yet. Iran has also been subject to lots of pressure over decades. They've withheld a decades old sanctions regime and it's only made them more hardlines. So I think I'll just inject a note of caution. Despite everything that we've mentioned, probably ordinary people in Iran continue to suffer. It doesn't mean the regime is about to capitulate to American demands.
Sophia Yan
The one wild card here is that China of course has been so instrumental in helping Iran through throwing them a lifeline given sanctions, in some ways supporting the economy by buying Iranian oil, selling goods also to Iran. And this means that Iran has to keep China on side. But China is the world's largest exporter so they're getting hit too by this Hormuz crisis. I mean China's really feeling the pinch and they have their own economic problems to worry about. And so in the long term, there's, there's a limited time by which Iran can really do this to keep Hormuz closed because it will impact and has already impacted some of its biggest supporters.
Venetia Rainey
The other thing to watch there, and I mentioned someone called Mohammed Bagazzel Gada, who's the head of the Supreme National Security Council, he has just resigned and he's moved to another position, which I'll mention in a second. But I think that internal Iranian aspect is another thing to keep an eye on here. So he's now become a political adviser to Supreme Leader Mojdabh Khamenei. And I know you've got something you want to say about Khamenei in a minute. He's been replaced on the National Security Council by a guy called Mohsen Rezai. He's a former commander in chief of the irgc. And as far as I can tell, there's not too much difference between the men. They're both hardliners, they're both involved in the irgc. So it's not clear what this will change materially in the war, but obviously it comes at a really critical moment for the negotiations. So right in the middle of this big extra demand over the Strait of Hormuz, Rezai has been really vocal about the need for Iran to maintain its grip on the strait. So just last month he said control of that waterway was worth more than and dozens of atomic bombs. Gives you a sense of where he places his priorities there. And just last week, he warned that the US Would face serious risks and casualties if its blockade of Iranian ports continues. That's probably just bombastic fighting talk. I can't see how the Iranians could demand much more than what we've heard from Zolgada. But I think it's just worth noting, nonetheless, Iran will probably maintain its hard position on this, and any deal to open the strait has to be approved by the Security Council that Rezai now heads up, as well as by Mojtaba Khamenei. And we've seen him, or Iran is telling us that we've seen him over the last 24 hours. Right. Sofia, tell us about a video that's
Sophia Yan
emerged so obviously until now, through the entirety of the war, after the senior Khamenei, Ali Khamenei, was killed and his son taking power. We haven't seen any real evidence of Mujtaba. We haven't seen him in public. There haven't been pictures and footage released in the past. There were, there were, there was quite a bit of a propaganda campaign actually in your passed to put Mujtaba in that succession line to start putting him in the public eye. So it's been very strange that for months we haven't seen or heard from the Supreme Leader himself, and he didn't
Venetia Rainey
even attend his own father's funeral.
Sophia Yan
Right, I mean, exactly, exactly. So there are a lot of theories as to why perhaps for the security aspect, that he's that concerned about the threat to his life, given that the Americans and Israelis have been so successful in assassinating so many senior officials and military commanders. Now, in the last 24 hours, this video per se has surfaced. It was purportedly on one of the official news agencies, but if you take a look at it, it seems to be an older video. And it's interesting because there was some sort of illusion that such a video would be made available sometime in the near future. This came in some reports, some state media reports where the Masoud Possesskin had met with Mujtaba near the start of possess third year in office. This was in late July. And so this was reported in state media that there was some meeting between the President and the Supreme Leader and that there would be some footage released. Now, this video, is it really current? Is it outdated? I mean, this is really unclear. And our colleague at The Telegraph, actor McCoy, does think that this particular video that's been released is old. If you look at it, it does does seem to show a younger Mujtaba. Now, it's fascinating if pressure is building and if somehow the regime, the establishment, feels that it needs to respond in some way to give a sliver of Mujtaba to show that he is indeed there. I mean, it's very interesting to react in this manner. Will it actually answer anybody's questions or will it instead create more. I mean, I'm starting to think, Venetia, that it's the latter, that it's going to create more questions as to why they can't put out something a little bit more updated.
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, I completely agree. If you put out an old video, then the question really begs the question, why can't anything current be taken of him? Not even a picture? What kind of state is the Supreme Leader of Iran in? Clearly, it's not good. I think it's just adding fuel to the fire. Of all the conspiracy theories, the most extreme of which is that he's dead. Most people I've spoken to don't think that's true. But very badly injured. Is he even compos mentis? We just don't know, there's just no sign of any of these sorts of things.
Sophia Yan
It is, it should be noted though, I mean, given how the Israelis have conducted assassinations in the past in some respect that they're taking so much care. I mean, you think about how you would record a video now, obviously you would have to do that via an electronic device, a phone, a laptop, a camera.
Venetia Rainey
That's true.
Sophia Yan
A lot of that has location data, for instance. I mean, there are, there are many ways by which to track down a person. And the Israelis certainly have shown in the past that they have the tech and the know how and the capabilities to do that. So this could still be along the lines of extreme security measures around the supreme leader. But again, we just don't know. It's a black box.
Venetia Rainey
Iran we're going to take a short pause now. Coming up after the break, why the Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia.
Sophia Yan
Welcome back. You're listening to Iran, the latest with me, Sophia Yan and Venetia Rainey.
Venetia Rainey
Okay, let's move on to the Red Sea. So the Houthis have been busy over the weekend. They've attacked both Saudi Arabia and targets within Yemen. Let me just start with Yemen. There were two rounds of attacks on the Red Sea port of Al Mokkah. Now this is controlled by Yemen's internationally recognised government, but was previously controlled by the Houthis from 2015 to 2017. So one round of attacks on Sunday morning killed at least 11 people, wounded 32 others, according to AFP, and then again on Sunday evening killing another seven people, 30 more people wounded, according to Yemen's armed forces, and caused extensive damage. Now Mokka is one of the main ports in Yemen's internationally recognized government controlled area. It was renovated in recent years so that it could handle shipping and avoid Houthi ports in Hodeidah. The Houthis said the operation against this port involved a large number of ballistic missiles and drones and they said it was targeting Saudi troops and weapon depots in the area. That's according to Reuters. They said the attacks were a response to an alleged continued Saudi military build up, including the reinforcement of allied forces with weapons and equipment along Yemen's western coast and in the Taiz province. I think that really raises this growing prospect of more civil war in Yemen. There has been very low level fighting, but the main bulk of the war was stopped in 2022 with a truce after four years of fighting. Yemen is a very, very poor country and it's been really racked by successive rounds of civil war. We're going to be getting more into that on tomorrow's episode. But I want to ask you about another attack that came yesterday, and this was on an Aramco refinery in the city of Jazan in Saudi Arabia. So not in Yemen, in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Energy Ministry reported a fire at the facility. They said no casualties. They didn't describe its cause. Quite interesting to me that they didn't want to ascribe it to the Houthis publicly. And this is potentially because it's the first test of this defense pact that we were talking about on Friday with Turkey and Pakistan. What do you make of that, Sofia?
Sophia Yan
This is the first attack on Saudi Arabia on one of the members of the trilateral defense pact that was signed on Friday, which sends a very strong message. I mean, it's got a clause in it. It's a NATO style defense. So an attack on one is an attack on all. So already we're seeing the Houthis react. Now this particular agreement, Saudi Arabia is out of the three, perhaps the most under threat in the sense that they have already been attacked several times just recently, as you mentioned, Venetia from the Houthis. And they have been also hit by Iranian backed militias based out of Iraq. There are threats that continue to come from these proxy groups that are supported by Iran against Saudi Arabia. And so these attacks are very destabilizing. And for the Saudis, for the Pakistanis, for the Turks, there's an interest in trying to shore up what the region's security looks like going forward because the US Is no longer as reliable. This is how they see it as it may have been before in the past. Also you have increasing aggression both from the Israelis and the Iranians. And so you can think of this pact as a reaction to what we've seen these last few years in the Middle East. Everything frankly seems, seems so out of control. And the actions that are being taken are being decided far away from, for instance, the Gulf, from the Middle East. I mean, I'm talking about actions from Washington. And these are operations that are not necessarily to the benefit or to support the Gulf. In fact, it is to protect American interests. And that has been to the detriment to many other Middle Eastern nations. So they're really thinking, well, what do we do now and how do we protect ourselves? And that's why you see pacts like this.
Venetia Rainey
What do you make of why these three countries militarily? It kind of makes sense to me. So you've got Pakistan, lots of military experience, the Muslim world's Only nuclear armed country. Saudi Arabia, a huge economic and regional clout. Turkey, a NATO member. They also have a large military and very sophisticated defence industrial setup, including lots of drone technology. So that makes sense to me. But politically, why these three countries? I'm particularly interested because obviously you're talking to me from Istanbul. What's Turkey trying to say in particular here?
Sophia Yan
Well, these three countries all have their own interests in terms of making sure that their countries are protected against Iran. They are also interested in protecting themselves against Israel. Like I said, the region has just been through so much these last few years since the Gaza war began in October 2023. It's just been a relentless, this succession of conflicts unfortunately. And these countries are looking for a way by which to make sure that they can push back. You know, it's really, I think a message to Iran and also the Iranian proxies. They signed this on Friday in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. This is the most holy place for all Muslims. It's a message to state actors like Iran and non state actors like Hezbollah, like the Houthis, policies like all the militias that Iran supports in Iraq. And it's really sending this, this, this note to them that they are on notice and to say, you know what, we have options. If you keep going down that path, you just, you just wait, you know, it's, it is in a way drawing that line in the sand. Now what's, what's still coming forward is how this whole mechanism will play in practice. Now the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, he has said that, quote, we don't have anything written down, nothing we've signed that defines a common threat. Any country that does not attack us is not a target for us. The Pakistani Foreign Minister, Ishak Dar, he said that it's a, quote, purely defensive in nature agreement. And the process is that the members of this agreement need to formally make a request for help. Help and assistance could range from sharing intelligence, logistics, support or deploying military, depending on the level of threat. So regular committee meetings are meant to be held between the foreign ministers, the defense ministers, also the military chiefs, a permanent secretariat to be established and based in Saudi Arabia. And so this is something that is ongoing, it will develop. They've made clear the members of this pact that other countries are open to joining. The door is open. And so this is really starting to lay the foundation for what a Middle east going forward will look like. Where almost for sure countries here believe that the US will have a more diminished role to play in the years to come.
Venetia Rainey
I think the Fact that Saudi is so clearly leading on this defence pact also goes some way to answering the question of why isn't Egypt involved? And I know this is something you've been looking at, but one aspect that jumped out to me is that Egypt is probably not keen to jump into the middle of the a growing rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. And so given this is so clearly Saudi led, maybe Egypt feels like that's something it doesn't want to get into the middle of. What's your read on why Egypt's not involved?
Sophia Yan
This is a really interesting question because actually there were quad talks several times. I think they hit five meetings in total so far, if I'm not mistaken, it was Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And they were meeting to discuss security cooperation and defense. And so this was a grouping that had formed. And with Egypt as part of those wider talks, it is curious why they haven't signed on at this point. Now, Egypt has a history of generally being more wary of military alliances and you have to remember that geographically they're in a very different situation than the other countries.
Venetia Rainey
Countries.
Sophia Yan
Egypt shares a border with Israel, so they're right there. They face different challenges. Signing on to something like this would for sure upset Israel, but the door is open to Egypt. The Turkish foreign minister has said that very clearly. The other members of the pact, again saying that this is open to others who might be interested. This may become a wider block, an alignment, and it is in some ways a fit for Egypt to consider doing this. But again, it's a very tenuous position that they occupy based on where they're located.
Venetia Rainey
Fascinating. Just another one of those signs of how the region is being reshaped by this war. Let's finish off by talking about Israel. Quickly. We heard over the weekend that Netanyahu has explicitly rejected Donald Trump's peace deal in Gaza, suggesting it would turn the enclave into Hamasan. I say explicitly because he has made clear his objections and I think Israel never formally backed the deal. They weren't part of those negotiations. But he's come out and said Israel does not accept the 15 point document. So he said the IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we're talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament. Hamas has said it remains publicly committed to the deal. And interestingly, we had. So Trump's sort of, sort of envoy to the region. He's the head of the board of peace that Trump set up to oversee this Gaza deal. Bulgarian diplomat Nikolai Mladanov, he went on a sort of media blitz after these comments from Netanyahu. He spoke to Israel's Channel 12 and he basically said, this American plan for Gaza is the only way to guarantee preventing a Repeat of the October 7th massacre by Hamas. So quite strong talk. We've also heard briefings from Washington to Axios that the White House are not bothered by Netanyahu's statement on the Gaza plan. They see it as part of electioneering in Israel ahead of elections there in October. The quote from the US Official to Axios is, we understand Bibi's political needs. We have no problem with it as long as he continues to do what we ask, especially regarding restraining attacks, attacks in Gaza that hasn't happened. There have been more attacks in Gaza over the weekend, I think. One person killed and several injured, including children and women. Sophia, just remind us what this deal entails in Gaza. What are they trying to get done?
Sophia Yan
The very broad strokes outline here is that there would be a decommissioning process, so Hamas to gradually hand over different sets of weapons, heavy weapons. Then inventories or maps of tunnels where they're making the weapons, to turn over management of the weapons workshops. Finally, light weapons. This is quite symbolic. This next point, they would be stored potentially in Gaza by a Palestinian security force, not directly handed over to the Israeli military. So this is a very safe face measure, perhaps. And then each stage would then be verified by an international committee. This could include delegates from countries like Turkey and Qatar who have been trying to be intermediaries throughout all of these conflicts. Now, this would be contingent on the Israeli military withdrawing from Gaza. So this is. This is the skeleton of what seems to be on the table. This is not so different than past negotiations and talks about laying down arms. And I'll just note here that there is a wider trend in the region to get various Iranian proxy groups to lay down arms. Ongoing talks, of course, with Hezbollah and Lebanon and also in Iraq. The Iraqi government has actually set a deadline for the end of September this year, so very soon, for Iranian militias in Iraq to lay down weapons. So if this goes forward, that dismantles a very sharp forward prong that Iran has in terms of launching attacks and having a threat in the region, something that Israel will find as a positive development. But as we've seen in previous iterations of trying to get these groups like Hamas, Hezbollah to lay down arms, well, it's always easier said than done.
Venetia Rainey
Yeah. And there's a lot of questions as well around as you pointed out, the sort of Israeli withdrawal. So they're currently occupying, according to the the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian affairs, they're currently occupying nearly 65% of the Gaza Strip. And that goes up to what the Israelis call the yellow line. It's a sort of security zone which they're increasingly reinforcing. And the point is that the Israelis won't be asked to withdraw from that yellow line until after Hamas has been disarmed and have decommissioned all of their weapons. As you say, it's decommissioning, not disarming proper. It's not clear to me how this is going to go ahead in this, as you say, tricky holding period before the election. Netanyahu knows it will not be an electoral winner to withdraw from Gaza October 7th. Lots of people we've spoken to have said that that will be the main issue for Israelis going into this election. They're still waiting for a full independent inquiry to be held into what happened that day and how so many Hamas militants were able to overrun run the Israeli border.
Sophia Yan
In some ways, a peace deal in Gaza has now been overshadowed by the broader US Israeli war against Iran. And so there's a lot of attention focused on that in particular because that war, with the closure of Hormuz, has rippled through the global economy. And having attention solely on Gaza, though it is part and parcel of what's happening in the wider region. Well, a lot of attention has just fallen away from Gaza, unfortunately, and that's something that's really difficult for Palestinians, of course, to to understand.
Venetia Rainey
Let's leave it there for today. That's Sophia Yan, our senior foreign correspondent. And that's all for today's episode of Iran the Latest. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, goodbye.
Sophia Yan
Goodbye,
Venetia Rainey
Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Knowles and hosted by me, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciate this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave us a review as it helps others find the show. To stay on top of all of our news, subscribe to the Telegraph, sign up to our Dispatchers newsletter or listen to our sister podcast Ukraine the Latest. We're still on the same email address, battle linestelegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on X. You can find our handles in the show Notes the producer is Max Bauer. The executive producer is the Louisa Wells.
Podcast: Iran: The Latest (The Telegraph)
Date: August 10, 2026
Episode: "US blockade squeezes Iran & Tehran names price to reopen Hormuz"
Hosts: Venetia Rainey & Sophia Yan
This episode delivers an in-depth analysis of escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US amidst a naval blockade and worsening economic crisis within Iran. The hosts break down Iran's new list of demands to the US in exchange for reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz, examine the impact of US military actions, and track regional fallout, including intensified Houthi attacks and a significant new defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The episode also explores domestic Iranian instability following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and speculates about the true condition of his successor.
Timestamps: 00:17–04:21
“I'm a bit flummoxed as to why the Memorandum of Understanding is now coming back. Again, everyone said it was dead and buried, including the Iranians.” (03:49)
Notable Quote:
“Iran wants the US to pay up to compensate for the war damage… They want sanctions to be completely lifted… Being able to have access to any of that to help its economy would be very, very important for the regime.”
— Sophia Yan (02:19)
Timestamps: 04:21–05:31
Notable Quote:
“What they want is to maintain the leverage that they've built up all this time, one of which, of course, amongst the strongest is their control over Hormuz.”
— Sophia Yan (04:21)
Timestamps: 05:31–08:37
Merchant in Tehran, via Al Jazeera (quoted by Rainey):
“I’ve been a Merchant for over 40 years and I’ve never seen conditions like this, even during the years of the Iran-Iraq war… Today, the market has reached a state of clinical death.” (05:31)
Quote (Windward, maritime firm):
“This pattern is consistent with a blockade driven export halt: no loadings, no departures and a dark queue that isn’t moving.” (07:11)
Timestamps: 08:37–09:29
Timestamps: 09:29–10:11
Notable Quote:
“China is really feeling the pinch and they have their own economic problems to worry about… there’s a limited time by which Iran can really do this…”
— Sophia Yan (09:29)
Timestamps: 10:11–15:12
Notable Moments:
“He didn’t even attend his own father’s funeral.”
— Venetia Rainey (12:17)
“If you put out an old video, then... what kind of state is the Supreme Leader of Iran in? Clearly, it’s not good. I think it’s just adding fuel to the fire of all the conspiracy theories, the most extreme of which is that he’s dead.”
— Venetia Rainey (14:06)
Timestamps: 15:31–19:16
Timestamps: 17:32–22:44
Notable Quotes:
“An attack on one is an attack on all. So already we’re seeing the Houthis react.”
— Sophia Yan (17:32)
“These countries are looking for a way by which to make sure that they can push back. You know, it’s really, I think, a message to Iran and also the Iranian proxies.”
— Sophia Yan (19:48)
Timestamps: 24:03–28:53
On Iranian bargaining:
“Being able to drag out negotiations for Iran actually plays to its benefit. And it hurts Trump in the long term.” (04:21)
— Sophia Yan
On US perceptions:
“We’re just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money. It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.” (Via Trump, 05:31)
— Venetia Rainey paraphrasing Trump
On internal Iranian leadership:
“It’s very interesting to react in this manner. Will it actually answer anybody’s questions or will it instead create more? I mean, I’m starting to think, Venetia, that it’s the latter.” (13:39)
— Sophia Yan
| Segment | Timestamp Range | Key Topics/Quotes | |:-------------------------------------------|:---------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Iranian Demands & Hormuz Negotiations | 00:17–04:21 | Reparations, sanctions relief, US withdrawal, persistent impasse | | Economic Fallout; Blockade Details | 05:31–08:37 | Soaring inflation, “clinical death” in markets, oil exports collapse | | Internal Iranian Turmoil | 10:11–15:12 | Security council shakeup, Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence, conspiracy theories | | Houthi Attacks Escalate | 15:31–19:16 | Strikes on Yemen and Saudi Arabia, rising risk of wider war | | Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Pact | 17:32–22:44 | Pact mechanics, Egypt’s absence, regional realignment | | Israel, Gaza Peace Deal, and Regional Impacts | 24:03–28:53 | Netanyahu rejects deal, details of disarmament plan, shifting focus from Gaza to Iran front |
This episode intricately charts the evolving dynamics of the US-Iran conflict, adding layers of economic hardship, internal Iranian uncertainty, regional alliances, and proxy escalations. The hosts deliver a nuanced, fact-based review, questioning the viability of pressure and diplomacy while highlighting the region’s shifting power structures and broader implications for global security.