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- [00:04]
Arthur Scott Geddes
The telegraph. ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend.
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- [00:50]
Arthur Scott Geddes
ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com. I'm Arthur Scott Geddes and this is Iran. The Latest It's Monday, 27th July, 2026. It's the 16th day of this latest round of the war since Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between the US And Iran. Over on today's episode, Trump backs down and pauses American strikes on Iran as the US Runs out of missile interceptors. Plus, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Ukraine for an audacious strike in the Caspian Sea.
- [01:30]
Donald Trump
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
- [01:37]
Arthur Scott Geddes
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was
- [01:40]
Jameela Jamil
killed in the attacks.
- [01:47]
Arthur Scott Geddes
For the first time ever, the US Navy used a surface sea drone in combat to strike Iranian targets.
- [01:53]
Donald Trump
The strait are almost completely closed again. Anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on.
- [02:04]
Arthur Scott Geddes
Joining me today to discuss the latest developments is the Telegraph's chief foreign affairs commentator, David Blair. But first, let's start with what happened in Iran over the weekend. So we've now had three consecutive nights without a US Strike on Iran. The US Military had been ready to launch a major escalation on Friday and was reportedly ready for an intensive round of airstrikes that could have gone on for two weeks. But Mike Waltz, the US Ambassador to the UN Said yesterday that Trump has decided to pause his attacks in order to create more space for diplomacy.
- [02:33]
Mike Waltz
He's giving it a little bit of room. We've had both Iran and Iran and a number of our other negotiators engaged at every level, from the most senior levels all the way down to the technical level over the past few weeks and particularly in the past few days.
- [02:49]
Arthur Scott Geddes
At the same time, a spokesperson for the Iranian military said Tehran had halted its own attacks on the US and its allies in the region. And in response, on Friday, Donald Trump told reporters in Washington that negotiations between the US And Iran were continuing.
- [03:02]
Donald Trump
Look, we're talking to them right now. I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason. But we are talking to them right now. Look, there are two ways. I consider that the smarter way, but the other is probably the easier way, doing what we're doing. And we can take that to a much higher level if we want to. You know, we're prepared to do that. As you know, we're locked and loaded.
- [03:27]
Arthur Scott Geddes
So then this pause comes after nearly two weeks of constant US attacks on Iran and tit for tat Iranian responses, which effectively unravel this ceasefire that was reached in June. However, as well as this desire to create more space for ceasefire talks, there's also been a lot of reporting suggesting that the US is backing down, partly at least because it's really running out of air defence interceptors. So these are the things like the Patriot missiles that the US relies on to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles. Defense analysts in the US have long been warning that the US has been burning through these supplies at an unsustainable rate. So two analysts from the center for Strategic and International Studies told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that they now estimate that at least 1500 Patriot interceptors have been expended since the war began. Now, that means that the U.S. may have less than 1,000 Patriot Interceptors left. And several U.S. officials have come out quickly to deny the reports of the interceptor shortages. Trump himself on Sunday said, we have far more munitions than anyone in the world and far more than we need. He also posted a flurry of bizarre memes, mostly showing US aircraft bombing Iran. That was all on his Truth Social page. Mike Waltz also rejected the reports. He said the US military has everything that it needs to be able to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be.
- [04:45]
Mike Waltz
As the President said, we are locked and loaded. Even more assets are going into theater, but he's giving talks some space.
- [04:53]
Arthur Scott Geddes
For its part, Iran's Foreign Ministry this morning said that the country will not allow the US to determine when war and peace begin or end. Iran will defend itself for as long as is necessary. Now, this pause in fighting has caused oil prices to drop sharply. The price of Brent crude has fallen to just over $90 a barrel, down from just over 100 last week. However, fuel prices in the US have continued to rise and they normally trail the rises and falls of the oil prices. So gasoline, as the Americans call it, is still over $4 a gallon at the pumps, while the price of diesel has now risen to around $5.30 per gallon. That's up roughly 41% since the start of the war. As the war nears its fifth month, it remains deeply unpopular among Americans. A new CBS YouGov poll suggests that some 57% of Americans are frustrated about the conflict, and only 19% of the country is optimistic. So looking now to those two key choke points in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, shipping remained disrupted over the in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the US Military said it had disabled a tanker that was attempting to evade the blockade on American ports. That's actually only the second time that the US has had to disable a commercial vessel since it reimposed its blockade earlier this month. But six ships have attempted to pass through the southern Omani route in the Strait of Hormuz. That's the route that Iran considers illegal by turning off their navigation and positioning systems. One vessel apparently suffered an accident, while the others returned to the Gulf under what Iran's state broadcaster described as decisive Iranian management. Meanwhile, Wes Streeting, the new defence secretary, has said he'll meet his US Counterpart, Pete Hegseth, in the coming week to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. He told the BBC, when it comes to securing maritime freedom and free commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, that's where we are absolutely aligned. At the same time, Iran's Foreign Ministry has condemned the UK for permitting the US to use British bases for attacks on Iran, it said. We expected the new British government to act more wisely, but unfortunately we saw that it took a worse path. On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, ship traffic through the Bab el Mandeb Strait fell on Sunday after the Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast on Saturday. Just 11 commodity vessels passed through the strait on Sunday, the lowest level in months, and that's according to shipping data from the firm Kepler. On the diplomatic front, Benjamin Netanyahu is on his way to Washington and is set to meet Donald Trump in the White House on Tuesday. Netanyahu has been wanting a sit down with Trump for months, and it will be an interesting meeting to watch, given that they are not on the best of terms at the moment. The Israeli prime minister also vowed to speak at the UN in New York, despite an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and the promise of a very frosty reception from Mayor Zoran Mamjani. Also over the weekend, Iran held several rounds of technical talks in Tehran to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz. So they've got their own parallel negotiations going. I just want to flag as well one quite important development from much further afield, which is that Iran has threatened retaliation against Ukraine. And this is all to do with an alleged attack by Kyiv on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. So the ship has not yet been named, but was allegedly carrying military cargo between Russia and Iran. Iran said the attack caused an explosion that killed one sailor and injured another. Abbas Arakchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said the attack cannot go unanswered, but details of it are sketchy at the moment. There has, however, been a lot of discussion over a possible motive and questions around the timing. Joe Barnes, the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent, has argued this morning that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is hoping to use this attack to send a message to Trump and highlight the cooperation between Tehran and Moscow. David, what's your take on the strike? Why has Kyiv stuck now and what message is it trying to send?
- [08:41]
David Blair
It's a very significant move. The Ukrainians have stepp up their attacks on Russian shipping, particularly on Russian Shadow fleet tankers, focused of course on the Black Sea. But they've never struck an Iranian ship before and they certainly haven't struck any kind of ship in the Caspian Sea before. So this is a demonstration of capabilities for long range maritime strike which many people might have doubted Ukraine even possessed. And the purpose is twofold. One, to impose a price on Iran for its military support to Russia. Because of course, the Shahid drones, which have caused so much damage in Ukraine in the past, were originally supplied by Iran. And then eventually Iran supplied the technology and the licenses and Russia began manufacturing these drones on its own territory and then upgraded them. And now you've got new generations of drones hitting Ukraine. But it all began with Iranian supplies to Russia to aid the invasion of Ukraine. See, Ukraine would say we are simply acting in self defense.
- [09:49]
Arthur Scott Geddes
So Iran has threatened to retaliate over this. Does it really have any options for doing so? And is there a danger that these two conflicts are kind of becoming even more closely intertwined?
- [10:00]
David Blair
Well, it's very hard to see what Iran would do. They do have long range missiles, which conceivably they could fire directly at Ukraine. More likely is that they will increase their military support to Russia and perhaps supply Russia with ballistic missiles which they could then fire at Ukraine. It's likely to be something like that. But I just note one irony, which is Iranian diplomats even today love bringing up the war that they fought with Iraq back in the 1980s. So more than 40 years ago or about 40 years ago, and reminding everybody that lots of countries gave weapons to Iraq at that time as they were fighting Iran, and how Iran even today bitterly resents all that. Well, by Iran's own logic, Ukraine would have every right to feel a huge sense of grievance against Iran for having backed up the Russian invasion of their country.
- [10:56]
Arthur Scott Geddes
There was something quite brazen in the messaging coming out of these Iranian diplomats and government sources this morning who claimed that they'd never had anything to do with the Ukraine war. You know, despite previously, as you mentioned, supplying all the drones and actually, I think at one stage, supplying personnel who trained Russians in how to use them in Crimea.
- [11:14]
David Blair
At one stage, I think that might be correct. Certainly Iranian individuals went to Russia and passed on their expertise. And these denials are ridiculous. And the people issuing these denials know that they're talking nonsense, but this is the kind of thing that they occasionally feel obliged to do.
- [11:32]
Arthur Scott Geddes
So the timing of this as well is interesting. It comes just as Zelenskyy is also due to travel to Washington. He's meant to be attending Lindsey Graham's funeral on Tuesday. Is there a message here that's being sent to Trump? How do you think the Ukrainians want the Americans to interpret this?
- [11:49]
David Blair
I imagine Zelenskyy is trying to tell Trump, look, when it comes to Iran, we're on the same side. Iran has been backing the war against Ukraine and supplying the Russians. We're striking back. We're completely uninhibited about this. We're prepared to sink Iranian ships, kill Iranian personnel, as seems to have happened in one case on this ship. And so we're with you. And that will no doubt draw a contrast, perhaps, no doubt implicitly, between Ukraine and the rest of Europe, which isn't with America in the Iran war.
- [12:23]
Arthur Scott Geddes
So last week, there was a lot of reporting on why Iran's strikes against US Targets were becoming so much more precise. I just wondered what your thoughts were on that.
- [12:33]
David Blair
Well, there was a particular strike against an American military facility in Jordan where they carried out a precise strike which killed two, I think it may now be three American service personnel. Now, those kinds of precision strikes require precision data, which raises the question, where is Iran getting that data from? Are they getting it from their own means, or are they getting help? The most likely explanation is that they must be getting help. And that raises the question, who from? And the most likely answer is Russia and China or one or the other, but most likely both. And that's quite a significant move.
- [13:14]
Arthur Scott Geddes
And so presumably, if you're the Iranians, you might be asking similar questions about how the Ukrainians managed to pull off a similar attack on their commercial vessel.
- [13:24]
David Blair
No doubt the Iranians will be very suspicious about how it was that the Ukrainians managed to track the ship and hit it with such pinpoint accuracy from a range of, I think from Ukraine to the Caspian Sea is 3 or 400 miles. I'll be corrected on that. But it's something like that. A long range maritime strike like that requires a lot of preparation and a lot of data. The Iranians will ask, where did that come from? And the possible answer is America.
- [13:53]
Arthur Scott Geddes
So, turning to this pause, what do you think has happened here to make Trump back down?
- [13:58]
David Blair
Well, Trump had reached the point where he either had to escalate and make good on his threats to destroy Iran's power stations and knock out the bridges, or he had to pause and allow diplomacy to take its course and to see whether that would produce anything. Not for the first time, he's taken the second option. You might remember that back in April, he threatened to end Iranian civilization and said it was all he was going to destroy everything. And then the next day we had a ceasefire. Because he continually gets himself into these positions where he makes threats which he clearly can't act upon and therefore ends up having to settle for a ceasefire. The problem is he's in a conundrum. He's trapped himself in a situation that it's very hard to see how he can possibly get out of it. He wants the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, but he can't reopen it by force. At the beginning of this war, he wanted the Iranian regime gone. He's demonstrated that he can't remove the Iranian regime, at least not through air power alone, which should have been clear from the very beginning. So he hasn't really got any options here beyond exploring whether the Memorandum of Understanding, which ended the first round of the war, whether that can simply be resurrected. And I suspect that there's nothing else really that could happen to keep and maintain this period of calm that we're seeing now.
- [15:28]
Arthur Scott Geddes
It seems as though it's getting even harder to kind of ascertain what Washington's aims are with regard to the war. But the previous ceasefire felt a little bit more like a pause for both sides to regroup. Do you think that there's a space now for something more permanent?
- [15:45]
David Blair
No, I don't think there is. The famous Memorandum of Understanding didn't resolve anything the nuclear issue was simply deferred to future negotiations. Iran's missile program wasn't even mentioned. Iran's sponsorship of terrorism wasn't even mentioned. And as for regime change, which was the original goal, let's remember. Well, forget it. I mean, that's not even on the agenda anymore. Obviously, he's dealing with the people who he previously tried to get rid of. So now Trump's objective seems to be limited to securing free navigation through the strait. And some of us capable of remembering back five months, remember that the strait was open before he started this war. So he's now in the extraordinary position where his war aim is to restore the situation that prevailed before he started the war. And I really. It's extraordinary. I struggle to fathom just how much of a mess this has all become from America's point of view. And it's a tragedy. And another point is his options are limited by the factor that you mentioned earlier, which is the depletion of America's stocks of interceptor missiles. That means they have to. That places a limit on how long they can carry on this campaign, because Iran is going to hit back by firing its missiles. And if they don't have the interceptors to protect their bases from those missiles, then it's extremely dangerous to fight Iran.
- [17:16]
Arthur Scott Geddes
On that issue of the interceptors, how might other US Adversaries be seeing this situation? Could this, as some have suggested, have ramifications beyond the current conflict?
- [17:26]
David Blair
I think it could, and I think that's a really important point. The key question, which I can't answer is how long would it take America to replace all the interceptors that have been consumed during the last few months of war with Iran? Now, I don't know the answer to that. I imagine that someone must know, but it's almost certainly classified. But that's crucial, because if that speculates and it's perfectly credible to say that it might take America years to recover to replenish its stocks, well, that means that for a period, perhaps, of years, America will be more vulnerable than it previously was if it were to fight a war against a capable adversary armed with ballistic missiles. Now, that fact cannot be lost on China and Russia.
- [18:16]
Arthur Scott Geddes
Finally, one question for you about Benjamin Netanyahu, who's heading to Washington, as we said. What is he after from Trump?
- [18:23]
David Blair
What he wants most of all is to have some influence over whatever diplomatic process is now taking place between Iran and America in the condition that we now have of a de facto undeclared ceasefire or pause and hostilities. Netanyahu's problem is that Trump didn't consult him at all about the 14 point memorandum of understanding which ended the first round of the war. Israel was completely cut out of that whole process. Now he will want to Netanyahu will want to have an influence and want to have some insight into what these discussions between Iran and America, supposing they're happening and supposing they're direct or whether they're all mediated, he will want to know what's going on and what terms are being discussed.
- [19:05]
Arthur Scott Geddes
David, thank you for joining us. That's it for today on Iran the Latest. We'll be back tomorrow. Goodbye.
- [19:14]
Veneesha Rainey
Iran the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph, created by David Nulls and hosted by me, Veneesha Rainey and Roland Oliphant. If you appreciated this podcast, please consider following around the latest on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show. For more from our foreign correspondents on the ground, sign up for our new daily newsletter, Cables, or listen to Our sister podcast Ukraine the latest we're still on the same email address battleionselegraph.co.uk or you can contact us on x. You can find our handles in the show. Notes the producer is Peter Shevlin. The executive producers are Venetia Rainey and Louisa Wells.
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