Iran: The Latest

Episode Title: Why Iran's new supreme leader could intensify the war
Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Venetia Rainey, Roland Oliphant (The Telegraph)
Guest: Sasha Buchman, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Doha

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the sudden appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—as Iran’s new Supreme Leader during the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The episode explores Mojtaba’s rise, his backing by the IRGC, likely policy directions, implications for Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the escalating economic and regional fallout, including global oil disruptions and Gulf states being drawn into the war.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mojtaba Khamenei’s Appointment and Power Dynamics

Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?

• Mojtaba is Ali Khamenei’s second son, long rumored as a potential successor but lacking the clerical credentials of a traditional Supreme Leader.
• Not genuinely an Ayatollah; state TV only just started calling him that to legitimize his new authority.
• First surfaced as a military aide in 1987 during the Iran-Iraq war, initially seen as a marginal figure by the IRGC.

His Rise to Power:

• Over decades, built influence via his father’s office, becoming a key power broker.
• Allegedly masterminded the controversial hardliner win in the 2009 presidential election and took control of the Basij militia, crucial for suppressing protests and dissent.
• By 2024, widely recognized as the IRGC’s preferred candidate.

Hereditary Succession & Legitimacy Issues:

“The Islamic Republic is a revolutionary republic. It doesn't do kings. So hereditary succession, even for pro-regime insiders was going to be a problem.” – Roland Oliphant (06:35)

• IRGC and Basij prepared over years to suppress post-Khamenei unrest and enable Mojtaba’s succession.

IRGC’s Grip on Power:

• Mojtaba’s selection is seen as the IRGC consolidating power—potentially turning Iran into a military dictatorship with the Supreme Leader as their instrument, although not necessarily possessing the unchallengeable authority of his father.

“Iran's going to be a military dictatorship and Mojtaba will be the IG's placeman. But he's not going to have the same amount of authority and power as his father.” – Roland Oliphant (00:42 & 08:51)

2. Authority, Public Profile, and Potential Leadership Style

Public Perception:

• Mixed local reactions: street celebrations of his appointment and simultaneous chants of "death to Mojtaba" from balconies in Tehran.
• Mojtaba is an unknown quantity to the public: rarely seen, no history of public speeches or policy articulation.

Possible Leadership Direction:

• Some in Iranian circles tried to market him as a “modernizing” figure (a la MBS in Saudi Arabia), but academics and experts doubt this, especially given his ties to hardliners and personal losses suffered in the war.
• Likely to be as hardline, if not more, than his father, but younger, more energetic, and perhaps less restrained.

“Everything we know about his background, his attitudes, the people he hangs out with suggests he is going to be every bit as conservative and perhaps as hard line and perhaps with a greater degree of, you know, youth and energy and vim and vigor than his father brought to the role.” – Roland Oliphant (09:48)

3. The Succession Process Explained

How is a Supreme Leader Chosen?

• The Assembly of Experts (88 clerics, nominally elected) is constitutionally responsible for appointing (and removing) the Supreme Leader. Nominal checks and balances exist, but power has long been heavily centralized.
• Mojtaba’s rapid elevation required legal and religious "fudging" around his titles and qualifications.

The Theocratic Structure:

• The Supreme Leader stands above Iran’s multi-layered political system designed to “guard” the revolution.
• Real power has been in the Supreme Leader’s office, especially under Ali Khamenei, rendering elections for president/parliament secondary for major decisions.

“On paper, you could say, okay, I can kind of see how this works in practice. Particularly since Khamenei came to power... he has concentrated real power in his office, which meant he had a veto on any significant. Any major, significant decision.” – Roland Oliphant (13:35)

Notable Segments & Quotes

• Mojtaba Khamenei’s Profile & IRGC Relationship (03:52–09:05)
• IRGC's Role & New Regime Dynamics (09:05–10:47)
• Succession Mechanics & Ayatollah Explanation (11:10–15:00)
• Nuclear Policy Dilemma (18:05–21:01)
• Russia’s Support for Iran (21:01–24:55)

Highlights: The Nuclear Question

Ali Khamenei’s “Red Line”:

• Historically, Ali Khamenei was seen as cautious, always stopping short of pushing Iran over the threshold into full weaponization of its nuclear program.

“Khamenei was actually an incredibly cautious individual... The nuclear file was the absolute purely distilled form of that...” – Roland Oliphant (19:08)

Mojtaba’s Uncertainty:

• No one knows Mojtaba’s stance. With mounting devastation (and personal losses), pressure from hardliners may drive Iran toward overt nuclear weaponization.
• The calculus: If not having the bomb invited attack, why not pursue deterrence?

“We don't know to what extent they would be able to get them imminently in the short term future... But it is an alleged nuclear weapons program.” – Venetia Rainey (21:01)

Russia and China Connections

Putin’s Congratulations:

• Russia swiftly backed Mojtaba, signaling ongoing close ties forged since the Ukraine war.

“Not surprising at all to see warm words from Putin... But, of course, the promptness with which he does it and the selection of words tells you how warm the Russians feel about that particular country…” – Roland Oliphant (22:16)

Strategic Partnership:

• Deepening intelligence sharing; Russia and China likely to exploit the conflict for intelligence on US and Israeli operations.

Oil, Gulf Region, and Economic Shock

Gulf States Under Fire (Section with Sasha Buchman, 26:52 – 49:23)

• Iran’s missile and drone strikes spread across UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Iraq.
• Civilian casualties remain low, but key infrastructure—including oil refineries and, for the first time, desalination plants—have been hit.

“Iran's plan in all of this is to raise the cost for its neighbors and get them to pressure America to stop the war. But could that backfire?” – Venetia Rainey (28:36)

Oil Price Surges

• Price of Brent crude shoots past $100/barrel for the first time since the Ukraine war, due to attacks and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Brent crude costs cost the symbolic $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.” – Venetia Rainey (28:36)

Gulf Leaders’ Frustration:

• Gulf countries feel betrayed, especially those (like Qatar) that maintained neutrality or even tried to mediate.
• Statements from leaders in the region have condemned Iran for dragging them into the conflict.

Increasing Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure:

“Desalination plants are important because the Gulf largely depends on freshwater... They're trying to find something now that keeps the pressure up, while their stockpiles of missiles and UAVs are decreasing...” – Sasha Buchman (41:03)

Economic Ripple Effects:

• Multiple Gulf states declare force majeure on energy contracts (44:35).
• Closure of Hormuz disrupts 15-20% of daily global oil supply.
• US moves military assets (e.g., USS Gerald R. Ford) to attempt to reopen the shipping channel.

The Changing Shape of Warfare in the Gulf

Operational Security & Air Defenses:

• Gulf states and the US have rapidly adapted, employing multi-layered interception systems.
• There’s concern, though not imminent crisis, about missile interceptor stockpiles.

“I think people forget that there's more than just the Patriot and thaad... There are more systems than people are tracking.” – Sasha Buchman (34:10)

Psychological & Propaganda Operations:

• Both sides engaged in information ops—e.g., Iran’s claims of US targeting desalination facilities, possibly as pretext for hitting similar targets in reply.

Israeli Strikes: A New Escalation

Strikes on Iranian Oil Infrastructure:

• Israel hit oil storage facilities in Tehran and Alborz, setting destructive fires that made international headlines.
• The US was forewarned but reportedly not informed of the full extent; indicates divergence in US-Israeli strategy.

“I think the Israelis are much more keen and willing to take risks to force a regime change.” – Sasha Buchman (47:48)

Strategic Logic:

• These are not merely economic targets but, according to Israeli rationale, direct facilitators of the IRGC’s operational capability.

Memorable Quotes

• “The IRGC will use force to silence any opposition to Mojtaba’s leadership... The suppression of protests, which you've seen in recent years, is just a warm up for the ultimate one.” – Roland Oliphant relaying a Basij member’s comment (06:35)
• “He [Mojtaba] has much more chance of being able to exert his will and stamp his authority on the instruments of power than any of the others would have done.” – Roland Oliphant (09:32)
• “If he's going to pursue the same policies as his father. Look, we can all see what's just happened to them. And they didn't have a bomb. One has to assume that they would chase it [develop a nuclear weapon].” – Roland Oliphant (20:21)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Mojtaba Khamenei’s Appointment / IRGC Influence: 03:52 – 10:47
• Succession Process & System Structure: 11:10 – 18:05
• The Nuclear Question: 18:05 – 21:01
• Russia/China/Iran Dynamic: 21:01 – 24:55
• Gulf War Impact with Sasha Buchman: 26:52 – 49:23
• Civilian Infrastructure Targeting & Desalination Plants: 36:42 – 42:58
• Israeli Strikes on Oil Infrastructure: 47:00 – 49:23

Conclusion

The episode provides deep context on Iran’s new leadership and what it means for the ongoing conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei, propelled to the top by the IRGC, symbolizes both the hardening of the regime and potential internal power struggles. The war’s regional impact is growing, with the Gulf’s economic and civilian sectors increasingly vulnerable; oil price shocks threaten global markets. Uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear pathway, US-Israeli coordination differences, and Iran’s international alliances add to the volatility as the world watches for the next strategic shift.