Battle Lines – "Why Iran's regime is not finished (yet) and why Trump can't help"

Podcast: Battle Lines (The Telegraph)
Date: January 12, 2026
Hosts & Contributors: Venetia Rainey, Roland Oliphant (co-hosts), Akhtar McCoy (foreign correspondent), David Blair (chief foreign affairs commentator)

Episode Overview

This episode dissects the eruption of mass anti-regime protests across Iran in early 2026, exploring why these unprecedented demonstrations may still fail to topple the Islamic Republic. The team examines the complex drivers of unrest, the regime’s violent response, the reasons for opposition fragmentation, and the reality behind foreign intervention—specifically, whether U.S. military action, potentially under Trump, could make a difference. The conversation closes with personal impressions of Iran and reflections on persistent societal change.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background to the Protests

• Trigger Event:
  • Cascading economic collapse led to shopkeepers in Tehran’s phone market closing their businesses as the currency deteriorated (₤1 = 2 million rials) ([03:35]).
  • The Grand Bazaar, a major historical bellwether for regime stability, joined in: “When the Grand Bazaar of Tehran is against any regime … they would be in very deep trouble.” – (Akhtar McCoy, [03:53])
• Unprecedented Breadth:
  • Unlike prior protests, this wave erupted in small, traditionally regime-friendly towns and among the socioeconomically disadvantaged ([04:47-05:14]).
  • Protests spread to religious centers like Qom and Mashhad, indicating a national phenomenon.

“Previous ones were concentrated mainly in Tehran and big cities, but the current ones are … in the small cities, unprivileged, which would be mainly generally supporters of the regime. That makes a difference…”
– Akhtar McCoy ([04:47])

2. What Makes These Protests Different (or Not)?

• Layers of Difference:
  • Geographical spread and severity of violence are new; protesters are better-armed (from tribal areas and seized police stations) ([05:18-07:48]).
  • Yet, there’s skepticism: Each protest wave gets labeled “different,” but none have toppled the regime.
• Repetition & Fatigue:
  • Since 2009, protests recur biannually, each time with hope: “Each time Iranians … say … this time feels different.” – Roland Oliphant ([05:34])

3. Regime Response and Human Cost

• Violent Crackdown:
  • Over 500 killed, 10,000+ arrested, many young and marginalized ([09:54-10:02]).
  • State violence on display, denial of funerals to prevent rallies, and draconian information blackouts.
• Notable Story:
  • Robina Aminian, a 23-year-old Kurdish student, was shot; her family had to “steal her daughter’s body from the hospital and move it to Kirmanshah” to avoid regime interference ([10:17]).

“The family was with a heavy presence of IRGC officers. They did not let … the family to bury the girl in their hometown.”
– Akhtar McCoy ([10:34])

• Protest Violence:
  • Protesters are now sometimes shooting back; highest death toll among official forces in any protest cycle ([12:32])

4. Fragmented Opposition and Absence of Alternatives

• Reza Pahlavi’s Controversial Role:
  • The exiled crown prince has gained visibility but remains divisive and lacks broad support within Iran ([13:28]).
  • No unified opposition or credible alternative leader, contributing to regime durability.

“At the moment, one of the reasons why the Islamic Republic is a sterling power is because there is no opposition to it.”
– Akhtar McCoy ([18:11])

• Diaspora Mistrust & Internal Discord:
  • Opposition abroad is fractured; claims of broad grassroot support are met with skepticism.

“Leaders in exile always have an interest in telling their potential sponsors abroad that they're much more popular at home than they are.”
– Roland Oliphant ([17:21])

5. Regime Resilience and Real Risks of Collapse

• Key Supports:
  • Regime’s survival depends on loyalty from security forces—especially the IRGC ([35:52]).
  • No sign of mass defections among security services; previous “Gaddafi moments” not yet visible ([34:02]).
  • Fear of civil war if the regime collapses with no unifying alternative ([19:38]).

6. Trump, the U.S., and the Temptation of Intervention

• Military Options Debated:
  • Range from decapitation strikes to cyberattacks/electronic disruption ([23:04]).
  • Aim would be to handicap repression and enable protesters’ coordination.

“Even just describing it makes you realize just how dangerous this would be and the extraordinary possibility of totally unexpected, uncontrollable outcomes.”
– David Blair ([23:04])

• Danger of ‘Rally Round the Flag’ Effect:
  • Any foreign military action likely to backfire—would unite Iranians, even opponents, behind the regime.

“Any attack, any strike … would rally people who are even against the regime behind it.”
– Akhtar McCoy ([27:26])

• Limitations of Western Influence:
  • Aside from the U.S., outsiders have almost “zero” ability to influence events; targeting the IRGC for sanctions is symbolically valuable but won’t change the dynamic on the ground ([30:42]).

7. What Would Signal Real Regime Collapse?

• Key Indicators to Watch:
  • Security forces refusing orders/fading away ([34:02]).
  • High-ranking officials defecting or ‘phoning in sick’ ([34:19]).
  • IRGC loyalty is the real linchpin.

“Until the IRGC fractures or something happens within it, the Islamic Republic would be in power.”
– Akhtar McCoy ([35:52])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On protest persistence & regime durability:
  “Maybe this is the straw that breaks the camel's back … the thousandth cut … for the regime.”
  – Roland Oliphant ([05:34])
• Personal cost of crackdown:
  “Her family had to steal her daughter’s body from the hospital.”
  – Akhtar McCoy ([10:24])
• About Reza Pahlavi:
  “I don't think he's an irrelevance anymore. How much clout does he really have? We don't know.”
  – Roland Oliphant ([13:28])
• On foreign intervention:
  “They would rally … behind the regime. It's happened historically throughout Iran history, from Darius the Great until now.”
  – Akhtar McCoy ([27:26])
• On regime signals:
  “These are the signs you look for in pretty much any revolutionary situation. … When the security services stop firing on protesters or begin to refuse orders...”
  – Roland Oliphant ([34:02])
• On Iran beyond geopolitics:
  “Tehran is a megapolis… sloping north south avenues … big ditches … trees are meant to grow … generally dry. … It's just a bit tired … like it's stuck in a bit of an economic time warp.”
  – Roland Oliphant ([37:11-38:40]) “Women are very defiant now. They are on the streets of Tehran or in those coastal cities in the north … without a headscarf, and the regime is too scared.”
  – Akhtar McCoy ([40:48])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Iranians’ Economic Grievances Begin the Protests — [03:35]
• Why This Protest Wave Feels Different — [04:47]
• Repetition of Protest Waves Since 2009 — [05:18]
• Violence and Human Cost — [09:54], [10:17]
• Fragmented Opposition & Reza Pahlavi’s Image — [13:15] through [18:11]
• No United Leadership Alternative — [18:11]
• Trump’s Options and the Dangers Therein — [22:41] through [24:34]
• Why Foreign Military Intervention Is a Bad Idea — [27:26]
• How to Recognize Real Regime Weakness — [34:02]
• Societal Life & Change in Iran — [37:11] to [41:54]

Final Reflections: Iran Beyond Headlines

The episode closes with the panelists reflecting on their personal experiences in Iran:

• The everyday vibrancy and resilience of its people despite censorship and repression;
• Tehran’s scale, smog, and social complexity;
• Shifts since the Mahsa Amini uprising — women now openly defying conservative dress codes;
• The sense that while political regimes endure, social transformation is ongoing and meaningful change, while hard to spot in headlines, is always underway.

“Change might not be a big headline … but might be more gradual. So that's maybe an optimistic note to end on.”
– Roland Oliphant ([41:54])