Podcast Summary: "Por que os chineses estão pagando mais para usar camisinha a partir deste ano"

Podcast: BBC Lê
Host: BBC Brasil
Episode Date: January 22, 2026
Reporters: Osman Shia & Ian Shen
Reader: Thomas Papon

Overview

This episode explores a recent policy shift in China, where as of January 1, 2026, the government imposed a 13% sales tax on contraceptives such as condoms and birth control pills. The move is part of a broader attempt by Chinese authorities to counter the country’s declining birth rate. The episode discusses the motivations behind the reform, public and expert reactions, potential consequences—both intended and unintended—and how these measures fit into China’s ongoing demographic and socio-economic challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China's New Contraceptive Tax Policy

• Implementation:

  • As of January 2026, contraceptives (condoms, pills, IUDs) are now subject to a 13% sales tax.
  • Meanwhile, childcare services receive a tax exemption to encourage child-rearing.
  • This overhaul reverses policies in place since 1994, when the one-child policy was still active.
    [01:20]

• Broader Fiscal Reform:

  • The government also exempted marriage and elderly care services from value-added taxes.
  • Other incentives include extended paternity leave and cash bonuses for families.

2. Demographic Decline & Government Motivations

• Shrinking Population:

  • Official statistics: China’s population has declined three years in a row.
  • In 2024, 9.54 million babies were born—about half the number from a decade ago.
  • Births dropped despite the end and relaxation of family size restrictions.
    [03:00]

• Policy Rationale:

  • The aim is to combat an aging population and reinvigorate a slowing economy.
  • The government is attempting to reverse societal trends that discourage having children.

3. Public & Expert Reactions

• Public Skepticism and Satire:

  • Some mocked the policy:
    • “Vou agora comprar um estoque de preservativos para toda a vida.” (“I’ll now buy a lifetime supply of condoms.”) – Unknown social media user [03:45]
    • “As pessoas sabem a diferença entre o preço do preservativo e o custo de criar um filho.” (“People know the difference between the price of a condom and the cost of raising a child.”) – Another user

• Concerns of Unintended Consequences:

  • Fears of increased unplanned pregnancies and higher HIV rates.
  • Rose Zhao from Xi’an:
    • “Aumentar o custo da contracepção, que é uma necessidade, pode fazer com que estudantes ou pessoas em dificuldades financeiras corram risco.”
      (“Raising the cost of contraception, which is a necessity, could put students or people in financial hardship at risk.”) [05:10]

• Economic and Social Skepticism:

  • Demographer Yifu Xian (University of Wisconsin–Madison):
    • “A ideia de que o aumento do imposto sobre preservativos irá influenciar os índices de natalidade é supervalorizar a medida.”
      (“The idea that raising the tax on condoms will influence birth rates is an overestimation of the policy’s effect.”) [06:30]
    • He believes this is as much about raising state revenue in a slowing economy as it is about fertility.

4. Societal and Economic Factors

• Cost of Raising Children:

  • China is now among the world’s most expensive countries for child-rearing, according to the Yuwa Population Research Institute (2024).
  • Academic competition, work-life balance struggles, especially for women, and housing costs all weigh heavily.

• Climate of Uncertainty:

  • Real estate crises and loss of household savings have left families, especially young people, feeling financially insecure.

5. Doubts About Policy Efficacy

• Symbolic Rather Than Practical:

  • Henrietta Levin (Center for Strategic and International Studies):
    • Suggests the measure is more symbolic than a genuine fix.
    • “Os incentivos chineses… correm o risco de sair pela culatra se as pessoas perceberem que o governo está sendo intrusivo demais em uma decisão profundamente pessoal.”
      (“Chinese incentives… risk backfiring if people sense the government is being too intrusive in a deeply personal decision.”) [08:10]
    • Provinces, often indebted, may lack resources to implement new family incentives promised.

• Social Monitoring Backlash:

  • Reports of officials calling women about their menstrual cycles have heightened feelings of invasion and state overreach.

6. Wider Regional and Gender Context

• Similar birthrate issues plague Japan, South Korea, and Western countries.
• Parenting expectations and domestic labor remain heavily imbalanced, falling largely on women—highlighted as a key barrier globally.

7. Changing Social Dynamics Among Youth

• Shift in Relationship Norms:

  • Daniel Luo, 36, Henan Province:

    • “Tem um filho, e não quero mais... Como quando aumenta a tarifa do metrô… as pessoas não mudam seus hábitos. Você ainda tem que pegar o metrô, certo?”
      (“I have one child and don’t want more… Like when subway fares go up, people don’t change habits. You still have to take the subway, right?”) [05:48]
    • Luo argues that a small price hike for contraception won’t alter his behavior.

  • Trends in Solitude:

    • Luo notes growing sales of sex toys indicate young people are eschewing relationships due to stress and high expectations:
      • “Os jovens hoje em dia lidam com muito mais estresse da sociedade do que as pessoas de 20 anos atrás... Todos estão simplesmente esgotados.”
        (“Young people today deal with much more societal stress than people 20 years ago… Everyone is simply exhausted.”) [11:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Social media satire: “As pessoas sabem a diferença entre o preço do preservativo e o custo de criar um filho.” [04:00]
• Rose Zhao on contraception as a necessity: “…pode fazer com que estudantes ou pessoas em dificuldades financeiras corram risco.” [05:10]
• Demographer Yifu Xian: “A ideia de que o aumento do imposto sobre preservativos irá influenciar os índices de natalidade é supervalorizar a medida.” [06:30]
• Henrietta Levin on state intrusiveness: “O Partido Comunista não consegue deixar de se infiltrar em todas as decisões preocupantes para ele… De certa forma, ele acaba sendo o seu pior inimigo.” [09:30]
• Daniel Luo on psychological drift: “Os jovens hoje em dia lidam com muito mais estresse da sociedade… Todos estão simplesmente esgotados.” [11:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:20] — Introduction to the contraceptives tax and policy background
• [03:00] — Data on declining Chinese birth rates
• [03:45] — Public reactions and social media commentary
• [05:10] — Concerns for vulnerable groups (Rose Zhao)
• [06:30] — Expert analysis of the policy’s efficacy (Yifu Xian)
• [08:10] — Symbolic nature of policy and risks of state overreach (Henrietta Levin)
• [11:00] — Changing youth attitudes and societal exhaustion (Daniel Luo)

Conclusion

The Chinese government’s recent tax hike on contraceptives is emblematic of its urgent efforts to reverse a steep demographic decline, but reactions suggest it is unlikely to meaningfully raise birth rates. Instead, the policy spotlights deeper societal and economic anxieties, gender imbalances, and generational fatigue. Experts and everyday citizens alike doubt that financial nudges—especially those that increase the cost of reproductive autonomy—can override complex social realities and personal choices.