Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail - Episode Summary
Release Date: July 16, 2025
Hosts: Sara Lebo, Susie David Canyon, Karina Perkins
Guests: Susie David Canyon, Karina Perkins
Sponsor: Quad
Introduction
In this insightful episode of Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail, host Sara Lebo teams up with Susie David Canyon and Karina Perkins to reassess eMarketer’s 2025 retail predictions. The discussion delves into the evolving landscape of digital media, AI integration, and consumer behavior, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of current trends and future forecasts in the retail sector.
Trend 1: Generative AI Unlocking Predictive AI for Business Growth
The episode kicks off with an evaluation of the first prediction: "GenAI will unlock the potential of predictive AI to supercharge business growth."
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Karina Perkins clarifies the synergy between generative AI (GenAI) and predictive AI, emphasizing that while predictive AI has long been used for forecasting consumer behavior, GenAI serves as a more accessible interface for non-technical staff to derive actionable insights rapidly.
Karina (03:15): “Generative AI can act as a kind of user interface which means that non-technical staff members can interrogate the predictive analytics and get really fast actionable insights.” -
Susie David Canyon adds that GenAI enhances social listening and understanding human language trends, which is crucial for inventory planning. She cites companies like Mango adopting this technology.
Susie (03:47): “Retailers were going to continue and or start to use the combination of GenAI and predictive AI for their inventory planning.” -
Karina further explains the emergence of AI agents, which integrate GenAI and predictive AI to automate the shopping journey, thereby accelerating business growth.
Karina (05:04): “AI agents use agentic AI for autonomy to automate the process... It’s using all of the AI.” -
Data Insight: Referencing a study by Rackspace Technology and Coleman Parks Research, Karina highlights that nearly two-thirds of AI leaders are reporting substantial benefits from their AI integrations.
Karina (07:00): “Almost 2/3 of these AI leaders are reporting substantial benefits from AI.”
Trend Status: In Progress and Correct
Sara advises retailers to adopt these AI integrations proactively as competitors are likely already implementing them, even if not publicly disclosed.
Sara (05:57): “If you're a retailer listening to this episode... make sure you're doing it as well.”
Trend 2: China's E-Commerce Disruptors Will Be Disrupted
The second trend examined is the disruption of major Chinese e-commerce players like Temu and Shein due to increased tariffs and regulatory challenges.
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Susie explains that the initial prediction about TikTok Shop’s sustainability was correct, but the extent of disruption was underestimated. High tariffs have significantly impacted these disruptors, forcing them to manage inventory and supply chain issues.
Susie (07:14): “The disruption was way bigger than we had anticipated... they're all trying to just figure out their inventory and their supply and how to get stuff there.” -
Karina expands on the global impact, noting that companies like Shein and Temu are now focusing on markets like the UK and France, where regulators are tightening import tax loopholes. Additionally, Amazon has introduced "Amazon Hall" to compete with these disrupted players by offering a vast range of affordable products.
Karina (08:44): “They've both ramped up advertising spend in those countries... Amazon's really trying to create a business model...” -
Susie raises concerns about Amazon Hall’s reliance on foreign-produced goods, which may face similar tariff challenges in the US.
Susie (09:35): “Products are coming from, not made in the US... might be a challenge for them.”
Trend Status: 100% Correct Prediction
Sara affirms the accuracy of the prediction, acknowledging the unforeseen scale of disruption.
Sara (10:07): “100% correct prediction... definitely disruption happening there.”
Trend 3: Mounting Pressures Squeezing the Long Tail of Retail Media Networks
The third trend focuses on the increasing pressures on retail media networks due to economic constraints and heightened competition.
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Susie observes that brands and advertisers are becoming more selective with their spending, leading to intensified competition within the commerce media space. She notes that while Amazon dominates, new non-retail players like financial and gaming media networks are entering the fray.
Susie (10:28): “Brands and advertisers are cash strapped and worried about margins... there's definitely more competition in this commerce media space...” -
Karina discusses the fragmented landscape in Europe, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany. She highlights that while retail media ad spend remains robust, the lack of cross-border operations limits market size, giving Amazon a significant advantage.
Karina (11:57): “Over 100 local retail media networks operating in Europe... that limits the size of the market that each one can play to.” -
Collaborations: Retailers are beginning to form cross-border media networks to achieve greater scale, although such partnerships are still emerging.
Susie (13:35): “Retail media networks launching with a lot of retailers partnering together to get that scale.”
Trend Status: In Progress
Sara summarizes the trend as ongoing, emphasizing the need for retailers to adapt to a more competitive media environment.
Sara (11:43): “Mounting pressure to squeeze the long tail of retail media networks...”
Trend 4: Retailers Taking a Greater Stake in Media and Entertainment Content
This trend anticipated retailers expanding into media and entertainment through production companies and owned channels.
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Susie reflects that while some partnerships emerged, such as Hulu and Sephora or Walmart Plus with Paramount, the trend hasn’t gained the expected momentum due to economic uncertainties and a focus on core retail challenges.
Susie (14:24): “It's becoming like a completely different sort of way of thinking about loyalty and brand building...” -
Karina points out limited significant developments beyond Amazon, attributing the slow progress to retailers prioritizing inventory and operational issues over media expansions.
Susie (15:18): “There hasn't been a lot happening in either of the spheres...”
Trend Status: In Progress
Sara notes the trend as ongoing but acknowledges that broader economic concerns have slowed its adoption.
Sara (16:03): “It's not quite as big of a splash as we had anticipated it to be.”
Trend 5: Partner Perks as New Pillars of Paid Retail Memberships
The final prediction discussed involves enhancing paid retail memberships through exclusive partner perks.
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Susie integrates this trend with the previous one, suggesting that economic challenges have redirected retailers' focus towards fundamental operations rather than expanding membership perks. However, she acknowledges ongoing efforts by brands like Mattel and Lego in leveraging partnerships for brand activation.
Susie (16:22): “It's a bit of a longer game and people are worried about the short term...” -
Karina observes in the UK that loyalty programs are reverting to basics, offering direct discounts to members instead of complex perks, a strategy that could influence the US market.
Karina (17:10): “Retailers have actually started introducing lower prices for loyalty members.”
Trend Status: In Progress
Sara assesses that while some progress has been made, the trend has yet to fully materialize due to immediate retail challenges.
Sara (17:40): “Three quarters... less than three quarters of the way through the year... solid progress.”
Hot Takes: New Predictions from the Guests
As the episode concludes, each guest shares their own forward-looking predictions:
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Sara Lebo’s Prediction:
Walmart will launch a new online fashion marketplace to capitalize on the downturn of Temu and Shein.
Sara envisions Walmart leveraging its vast infrastructure to enter the fast fashion space, despite ongoing tariff challenges.
Sara (19:02): “I see Walmart... trying to fill this fast fashion space that Temu and Shein will leave open.”Prediction Status: Half In, Half Out – While the strategy aligns with market dynamics, infrastructure constraints pose challenges.
Sara (26:39): “I'll give this a half because I definitely agree with Walmart making Temu-like moves.” -
Susie David Canyon’s Prediction:
Walmart will launch a line of cheap goods produced in-house using 3D printing technology.
Susie suggests retailers might adopt 3D printing to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance inventory control.
Susie (21:44): “Retailers are going to want to bring this back to do it.”Prediction Status: 50% Confidence – While innovative, the scalability and environmental implications are uncertain.
Sara (26:30): “I'm going to give this a half because... not sure if the infrastructure is there.” -
Karina Perkins’ Prediction:
OpenAI will launch a plug-and-play AI store associate for retail environments by the end of 2025.
Karina foresees AI-powered digital assistants deployed on smart screens within stores to enhance customer experience.
Karina (26:54): “OpenAI will launch a plug and play AI store associate for retail stores.”Prediction Status: High Confidence – Despite technological uncertainties, the potential for integration in digitally advanced markets like the UK is strong.
Sara (32:42): “I’m fully in. Especially for a publicly traded company...”
Conclusion
The episode provides a thorough examination of the initial 2025 retail predictions, revealing significant progress in AI integration and unexpected challenges in the global e-commerce arena. The guests' additional predictions offer intriguing possibilities for the future of retail, emphasizing the continuous evolution driven by technology and economic forces.
Sara Lebo thanks the guests and the production team, while also announcing her departure as the podcast’s host. The episode underscores the dynamic nature of retail and the importance of staying informed to navigate its complexities.
Notable Quotes:
- Karina (03:15): “Generative AI can act as a kind of user interface...”
- Susie (07:47): “The disruption was way bigger than we had anticipated...”
- Sara (19:02): “I see Walmart... trying to fill this fast fashion space...”
- Karina (26:54): “OpenAI will launch a plug and play AI store associate...”
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