Podcast Summary

Overview

Episode Title: Advertisers Continue to Brace for Impact: How Market Pressures Are Reshaping Ad Spending Milestones This Year and Next
Podcast: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Date: December 1, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests:

• Yuri Wormser, Principal Analyst (Media, Tech, and Advertising)
• Oscar Orozco, Senior Director of Forecasting

Main Theme:
The discussion centers on how economic pressures—including tariffs, inflation, and a recent government shutdown—are shaping digital and overall ad spending in 2025 and beyond. The episode highlights the resilience of the ad market amid uncertainty, the continued dominance and evolution of the digital “triopoly” (Google, Meta, Amazon), and key milestones and trends to watch heading into 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Economy and Ad Spend Resilience

[03:38 – 06:35]

• Despite economic headwinds—tariffs, inflation, and a prolonged government shutdown—ad spending, especially digital, has remained resilient.
• Oscar: “So much negativity in the air. But…the reality…is really the word resilience keeps coming up…The ad market has held up pretty well…We anticipate an even slightly modest upgrade in our December update to our ad spending forecasts.” (03:38)
• Both Google and Meta’s Q3 revenues exceeded analyst expectations, fueling optimism for year-end numbers.

Forecast Revisions

• There were downward forecast revisions in Q2 (to about 9.5% growth), but better-than-expected Q3 performance led to an upward revision of almost 2 percentage points.
• Yuri: “Advertising in general has been amazingly resilient…at least in digital in the double digits, which is really impressive.” (05:39)
• The IAB reduced their 2025 US ad spend growth forecast from 7.3% to 5.7%, but EMARKETER estimates remain more optimistic.

2. Digital vs. Traditional Ad Spend

[08:09 – 08:34]

• Digital advertising now accounts for over 80% of total ad spend and is projected to approach 90% by 2029.
• Yuri: “Digital advertising is already over 80% of total advertising spend…There’s just less incremental dollars for Digital.” (08:10)

Market Dynamics

• Growth in digital is slightly slowing as there’s little traditional media remaining to convert.
• The ad market’s overall robustness is closely tied to digital, which remains a bellwether for the broader industry.

3. The Digital Triopoly: Google, Meta, Amazon

[10:15 – 14:27]

• In 2025, Google, Meta, and Amazon (“triopoly”) combined account for 61.7% of all US digital ad dollars, with their share still slightly rising.
• Yuri: “When you look at Meta’s ad growth and Amazon’s ad growth…they’re both well above the mean…Meta is at 17.7% and Amazon is at 18%…Google…around 5.7% growth this year.” (10:55)

Platform Highlights

• Meta: Instagram now drives more ad revenue than Facebook, fueling Meta’s ascent.
  • Marcus: “We estimate that Instagram [is] now making more money…for Meta than Facebook…a big part of the story…” (12:14)
• Amazon: Fastest growth among the triopoly, with off-site advertising (especially via its demand-side platform) and Prime Video ad inventory as key drivers.
  • Oscar: “Amazon right. Is hard not to talk about…Their DSP…Prime Video for them, the ads being scaled there…” (13:04)
• Google: While still doing well, their ad growth rate lags due to search market maturity. YouTube, especially Shorts, remains a standout for video ad growth.
• Projection: By 2027, Meta is forecasted to surpass Google in ad revenue for the first time.
  • Marcus: “According to our forecast, Meta will make more money from advertising than Google [in 2027].” (12:14)
  • Oscar: “We expect Meta to be above Google, which is huge news.” (13:04)

Market Concentration

• Amazon alone brings in as much digital ad revenue as players ranked 4th–10th combined, underscoring the triopoly’s dominance.

4. 2025 Milestones and Standout Moments

[15:12 – 18:23]

• Digital Surges Past 80%:
  • Yuri: “Digital is going to pass 80% of total advertising, which…I think…is just a stunning number…” (15:12)
  • In 2019, digital first crossed the 50% mark; in 2025 it’s at 82% and climbing.
• Instagram > Facebook:
  • Instagram’s surging revenue has outpaced Facebook, now Meta’s top ad earner.
• Connected TV (CTV) Growth:
  • Oscar: “It feels like 2025 has been a banner year for CTV…Growth at 14% roughly for 2025…So many moving parts there…” (16:14)
  • CTV ad ecosystem dynamic, integrating SVOD ad tiers, FAST channels, retail media partnerships (notably Amazon).
• New Entrants to Top Ad Players:
  • Roku cracks the top 8 US digital ad players, overtaking Hulu, with strong SMB adoption and acquisitions fueling growth.
  • Oscar: “There’s a sign of healthy growth there…more advertiser interest for Roku, especially SMBs.” (17:42)
• Disney’s CTV Consolidation:
  • Disney’s merging of Hulu and Disney+ ad assets will likely reclaim its ranking above Roku in 2026.

5. Looking to 2026–2027: Key Trends & Predictions

[18:23 – 22:44]

• Social Video’s Growth Surpasses TV+CTV:
  • Yuri: “By 2027 social video is actually going to…be larger than a combination of CTV and TV.” (18:31)
  • Social video (driven by platforms like TikTok, Reels, and Shorts) is outpacing combined growth of connected and traditional TV.
• Social’s Ad Share to Hit 30%:
  • Oscar: “For 2026…three out of ten digital dollars will go to social. Driven…almost entirely by the video piece.” (19:08)
  • Social platforms’ resilience continues despite predictions of stagnation. AI and commerce (social commerce) are key growth levers.
• TV Ad Spending’s Step-Change Decline:
  • Traditional TV holding above $50B in ad spend in 2026 due to Olympics, World Cup, and US election before further declines in odd years.
  • Marcus: “TV ad spending is going through step change declines…It went…from about 59 billion to 52 but then next year…it will…hold fast around 50 because of those major events.” (21:00)
• Reddit’s Growth Story:
  • Reddit is forecasted to double its US ad revenue from 2024 to 2026, rising from the 22nd to the 15th largest digital ad platform.
  • Marcus: “Reddit will double ad revenue…going from the 22nd largest digital ad player to the 15th in the US.” (21:00)
  • Surpassing Instacart, Tubi, Pluto, Yelp, Pandora, X (Twitter), and Spotify.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Ad Market Resilience:
  Oscar (03:38): “The reality…is really the word resilience keeps coming up…The ad market has held up pretty well…”

• On Digital Dominance:
  Yuri (08:10): “Digital advertising is already over 80% of total advertising spend…There’s just less incremental dollars for Digital.”

• Platform Power Shift:
  Marcus (12:14): “According to our forecast, Meta will make more money from advertising than Google [in 2027].”

• CTV’s Banner Year:
  Oscar (16:14): “2025 has been a banner year for CTV…Growth at 14% roughly for 2025…”

• On Social Video:
  Yuri (18:31): “By 2027 social video is actually going to…be larger than a combination of CTV and TV.”

• On Social’s Unexpected Staying Power:
  Oscar (19:08): “We’ve predicted stagnation…social just continues to not be the case. It’s defying logic…strength from videos driving it…”

Key Timestamps

• Economic Conditions & Ad Market Resilience: [03:38–06:35]
• Digital’s Share & Future Projections: [08:09–08:34]
• Triopoly Market Share & Growth: [10:15–14:27]
• 2025 Milestones – Digital >80%, Instagram > Facebook, CTV Growth: [15:12–18:23]
• 2026–2027 Social Video Ascendancy, TV’s Step-Change Decline, Reddit’s Rise: [18:23–22:44]

Conclusion

The ad market, particularly in digital, has displayed steadfast resilience in the face of persistent economic pressures. Digital now rules the ad landscape, with the triopoly (Google, Meta, Amazon) cementing their dominance and Meta set to overtake Google by 2027. Social video and CTV are the biggest engines of future growth, with social platforms outperforming even the most bullish expectations. Meanwhile, legacy players in TV are facing stepwise declines, and upstart platforms like Reddit are aggressively climbing the ranks. The landscape is more dynamic—and more concentrated—than ever.