Podcast Summary

Podcast: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Episode Title: AI’s Real Impact on Search So Far—What’s Coming Next, and Can Google Keep Pace?
Publish Date: December 5, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests:

• Jacob Bourne, EMARKETER AI & Technology Analyst
• Nate Elliott, Principal AI Analyst

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into how artificial intelligence (AI), especially generative tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, are transforming online search. The analysts unpack what has actually changed for users, brands, publishers, and advertisers, while interrogating whether AI truly threatens Google’s search dominance. Using the latest research, usage data, and market analysis, they separate hype from reality and share actionable advice for marketers navigating this shift.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Has AI Changed Search Behavior—And for Whom?

• Nate Elliott:
  • For "a small group—maybe high single digits, maybe low double digits" of daily users, AI has fundamentally changed information-seeking and even replaced Google.
  • However, "for the vast majority, AI is a thing they use once or twice a month... the vast majority of the population is still just going to Google a bunch of times every day." (03:12)
• Jacob Bourne:
  • The concept of conversational search pre-dates generative AI, but new models have finally made this vision real and accessible.
  • "AI has always been under the hood of search. What we're seeing is that search has evolved alongside AI." (04:50)

Notable Quote

"These tools can do amazing things ... and yet the most common way people use them is just to search for information the way they have traditionally used Google."
—Nate Elliott (03:12)

2. Is Generative AI a Replacement, or an Additional Tool?

• Nate Elliott:
  • Research shows:
    • Time spent with LLMs (like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) quadrupled from August 2024 to August 2025.
    • Despite this growth, "Google time spent data from August 2025 is almost identical ... up, I think, half of 1% versus August of 2024." (05:52)
    • LLMs represent only 3.3% of general search time in the US (as of August 2025); 97% is still with traditional search engines.
    • Bing alone gets more user time than the top five LLMs combined.

Notable Quote

"If you consider that group of products to be the pie of general online search ... only 3.3% ... went to LLMs. Almost 97% went to Google and Bing."
—Nate Elliott (07:30)

3. How AI Summaries are Impacting Click-Through and Traffic Patterns

• Marcus (Host):
  • Pew Research found:
    • If users get an AI summary in Google results, only 8% click a link, versus 15% without an AI summary.
    • Users are 63% more likely to end their search session early when presented with an AI summary. (09:06)
• Jacob Bourne:
  • Brands will need to adapt visibility strategies as pressure mounts to appear in generative AI search results.
• Nate Elliott:
  • "Zero-click search" isn’t new—before AI overviews, about half of all Google results pages got any clicks at all. AI just accelerates this trend.
  • LLMs drive much lower click-through (as little as 6%) compared to even regular Google search.
  • While Google claims their own metrics show no decline in organic clicks, the small share of AI search likely explains why overall macro trends aren’t (yet) showing big shifts.

Notable Quote

"There are a lot of people who were searching for things, getting what they needed either from the knowledge panel or from the two line summary ... and not clicking through. There are a lot of people doing that already. This is just accelerating and making it a bigger deal."
—Nate Elliott (11:21)

4. Can Google Keep Up, or Even Pull Ahead, as AI Reshapes Search?

• Jacob Bourne:
  • Despite fears post-ChatGPT, Google is arguably stronger thanks to AI, leveraging cloud, commercial innovation, and a massive user base.
  • Google's transformer model has been core since 2018—now commercialized to catch up to OpenAI/Microsoft.
  • Google’s ad and cloud revenue are still growing, cementing its advantage. (15:46)
• Nate Elliott:
  • Google’s distribution channels (browser, mobile OS, webmail, maps, etc.) drive adoption even when not first to market.
  • Gemini and AI Mode have a user base that could be approaching 1 billion monthly.
  • "Google can literally flip a switch and make billions off this whenever they want."
  • Blind taste tests sometimes show users preferring Gemini over ChatGPT for certain tasks.

Notable Quote

"There are billions of people around the world who go to Google search every day ... they know how to take that distribution and leverage it into consumer adoption for products, even when those products are late to market."
—Nate Elliott (18:10)

Additional Quote

"Google's hold is 90% of global search engine share … a number that's not fallen below 89% in the last 15 years."
—Marcus, citing Nate Elliott’s research (20:28)

5. Is Google’s Position Threatened in the Long-Term?

• Nate Elliott:
  • For the first time in decades, generative AI introduces "real doubt" about Google's absolute dominance. But the threat is more about future possibilities than a current displacement.
  • Predicts Google will overtake OpenAI in gen AI users in 2026.
  • Google remains poised to be the number one way people find information five years from now, likely leading in AI as well. (21:15)
• Jacob Bourne:
  • Previous challenges, like Gen Z searching more on social platforms, were minor compared to gen AI.
  • Gen Alpha will be "gen AI natives," potentially accelerating a behavioral shift, but still likely within Google's ecosystem.

6. Multi-Platform Search Behaviors & Google’s Edge

• Grace Harmon (cited):
  • Users now leverage different platforms for specific types of search:
    • Amazon for product queries
    • Social media for discovery shopping
    • Google for early-stage/product research
    • AI for comparison and personalization
• Nate Elliott:
  • Despite this, most people prefer a single-search-box experience.
  • Google's ability to route users to different types of results (maps, shopping, news, or AI mode) without users having to think about platform choice gives it a decisive advantage.
  • "I don't think anyone has the time or the space in their head to remember all of this and make those choices. ... I think the fact that Google can do all of this in a single search box is a big part of the reason why I think they're likely to win." (25:09)

7. Recommendations for Brands and Advertisers

• Nate Elliott:
  • "You're not late, but start now or you will be." (28:01)
  • While AI's share of search is still below 4%, marketers who move now are still early adopters; laggards will struggle to catch up as consumer shift accelerates.

Actionable Takeaway

“If you start right now, you’re still an early mover ... You’re not in crisis mode if you haven’t started yet, but you will be late soon."
—Nate Elliott (28:01)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• "For those people, AI has fundamentally changed the way they find information online. But for the vast majority ... it's still Google." —Nate Elliott (03:12)
• "[AI search] users’ depth of knowledge ... is actually much more shallow if AI versus traditional search." —Jacob Bourne (08:20)
• "Zero-click search isn’t new ... This is just accelerating and making it a bigger deal." —Nate Elliott (11:21)
• "Google can literally flip a switch and make billions off this whenever they want." —Nate Elliott (19:50)
• "If you start right now, you’re still an early mover ... but you will be late soon." —Nate Elliott (28:01)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:12 – How has AI changed search habits (who’s affected and how deeply)?
• 05:52 – LLM use vs traditional search: growth and real-world impact
• 09:06 – How AI summaries reduce click-through behavior on Google
• 11:21 – The rise (and limits) of “zero click” search
• 15:46 – Is Google in a better or worse position post-AI revolution?
• 18:10 – Google’s user scale, product adoption, and the “flip the switch” revenue model
• 21:15 – Is the AI threat to Google real, or overblown?
• 23:55 – Generational and behavioral shifts: Gen Z, Gen Alpha, and search
• 25:09 – Multi-platform search: user preferences, platform specialization, and Google’s advantage
• 28:01 – Brand/advertiser recommendations: is it time to panic or act?

Summary and Conclusion

While generative AI is quickly advancing the frontier of online search, its real impact so far is limited to a minority of power users and certain query types. Click-through rates are declining as more answers are surfaced directly via AI, challenging publishers and marketers, but not yet displacing Google’s core dominance. Google’s massive distribution, flexibility, and infrastructure allow it to adapt rapidly and even thrive in this new landscape, leveraging AI innovation to further cement its leadership. The main challenge for brands is to stay vigilant and engaged: you’re not too late to join, but the window for being an early adopter is closing fast.