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Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Are We Addicted? Breaking Down the Social Media Trials and America’s Media Habits | Behind the Numbers
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- [00:00]
Oscar Orozco
Foreign.
- [00:04]
Marcus
Hey gang. It's Monday, March 2nd. Ethan, Oscar and listeners, welcome to behind the Numbers, an E Marketer podcast. I'm Marcus and joining me for today's conversation we have two New York based folks. Unfortunately, because the weather is not great, principal forecasting writer Ethan Kramer Flood joins us.
- [00:21]
Ethan Kramer Flood
Marcus, at least you're here to warm the cockles of my heart even as New York City freezes everything else about my life.
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Marcus
We're also joined by sandrajo Folk casting Oscar Orozco.
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Oscar Orozco
Mark is happy to be on and yes, we are snowed in. It's. It's awful.
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Marcus
It's awful. Not quite as nice a message as Ethan's, but that's fine. We move on today's facts. So have you guys heard of the Dunbar number? That's what today's.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
No.
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Marcus
You might have, but maybe you didn't know it was called this because I have heard of this theory but didn't forgot the name, so don't. Dunbar number is a proposed cognitive limit on the number of people a person can maintain stable social relationships.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Ah, so you probably have heard.
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Marcus
Yeah. How many people can you have in your life? And it be easy to remember who they are and easy to maintain kind of quality relationships with folks. So it's proposed by British anthropologist Robin Dunbar. The magic number is 150. Believing there is a ratio between Sigan.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Sounds familiar?
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Marcus
Yes, Believing there's a ratio between brain sizes and group sizes through his studies of non human primates. So if you picture six concentric circles, so one in the middle and then big ones going outside or six concentric social circles. The theory suggests that humans can maintain five very close friends slash family. It's your inner circle. 15 good friends, 55, zero kind of general friends. 150 meaningful relationships. That is known as the Dunbar number. 500 acquaintances and 1500 is the maximum number of people that you can recognize.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Wow, 500 acquaintances. Does that mean you actually remember all 500 people's names? Because let me tell you, I would struggle with that.
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Oscar Orozco
Yeah, that, that seems way too much, I don't think.
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Marcus
Name basis. No first name.
- [02:15]
Oscar Orozco
I'm looking at my Facebook friends and I think I have way less than that.
- [02:18]
Marcus
Oh, Facebook friends? Yeah. 17 million is the total number of friends you're allowed before it gets out of control. But there's a lot of benefits to having high quality relationships. The better, the higher quality your friendships, the longer you'll live. There are multiple studies, articles that point to research to link the two Harvard Health, National Institute of Health, Oxford Institute of Population Aging, the Mayo Clinic, Michigan State University, et cetera, et cetera. So it does help to have high quality friends.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Let's do that.
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Oscar Orozco
It just sounds exhausting though.
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Marcus
Okay. That's why I'm not going to live long, because I have to deal with these two guys as long as I
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Ethan Kramer Flood
don't know their names.
- [03:00]
Marcus
Happy to have nice sentiment. Today's real topic, social media addiction and the other places we spend our media time. All right, let me set the table quick. The world's largest social media companies have been accused of creating addiction machines in quotes. As a landmark six week trial just kicked off in California examining the mental health effects of Instagram and YouTube, writes Lily Jamali of the BBC. The tech addiction trial features a 20 year old California woman accusing Meta and YouTube of building their platforms to be addictive like digital casinos, in quotes leading to personal injury and other harm. Hundreds of similar cases have been rolled up into this one bellwether case. The plaintiff, identified as KGM, became hooked on YouTube and Instagram as a kid because of features including endless scrolling likened to that of a slot machine. The prosecution will present evidence showing these platforms know what they're doing, including a 2015 email. Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg demanded that time spent increases by 12% in quotes on Meta platforms to meet internal business goals. Lawyers For Meta and YouTube told the jury that the plaintiff's addiction stemmed from other issues in her life, not the negligence of the platforms, and that they reject liability for how their platforms are used by people. So that's what's going on. Oscar, I'll start with you. Biggest takeaway takeaways from the social media addiction trial so far.
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Oscar Orozco
I mean, for me, I think we've absolutely hit a tipping point here. And I know the press has been reporting on, you know, comparing it a lot to the big tobacco trials. And I think that's entirely fair. I mean this, this has huge implications. I looked, I looked a little bit into it more so on like what that trial, it was the big master settlement agreement in 1998. What that had, like, what kind of impact it had on tobacco. And, and it really, I mean it really has, I mean it's, we've seen, you know, a drastic decline in smoking. You know, adult smoking rates fell from, I think it was 25 to 30% in the early 90s to about 10% just a few years ago. You know, thinking of it more from our angle, you know, it banned billboard advertising for tobacco companies and branded merchandise and cartoon ads. And it just really significantly changed how these products are Market Also, public opinion shift. Right. It really did destroy the, the tobacco industry and how they were looked at. So again, maybe it won't be as, as you know, tumultuous for social media companies, but I think it's very close to that. And, and that's the point we're at here. I think it's going to change how people look at social media platforms, how they use them. And ultimately that does have generational effect into the coming decades as well.
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Marcus
That was one of my takeaways. What is the prosecution hoping for when it comes to remedies? I actually jump straight to dessert in this trial. Sure, monetary penalties, likely if they, the plaintiff if the prosecution wins, but likely to have little to no impact on, on his tech giant. So what else? Time restrictions for young users that would prohibit school time and nighttime use, deactivating addictive design features like infinite scroll. Also play an algorithm, algorithmic recommendations and then disabling filters that enhance photos or perceptions of beauty.
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Oscar Orozco
Some suggestions looking at it from a time like time spent versus a revenue angle, I think the implications and the impact are stronger on the time spent side because it's going to be more direct, as you said. I mean, I think it could very much lead to big differences in how these apps are sort of created, the content that's on there, how personalized the content is, as you said, maybe making features where, you know, it literally locks users out after a certain amount of time just to enforce these limits. So there's a million different ways that changes can be implemented. So far we've only seen a few things, right? More like passive privacy settings and little restrictions here and there that teens are ignoring. But yeah, it feels like a huge moment that we're facing.
- [07:11]
Marcus
Yeah, maybe this nudges government closer to a ban for under 16 year olds. We've seen that in Australia, other countries as well, following suit with legislation. India, Spain, Denmark, the UK thinking about it as well. These platforms obviously have to be 13 and above, so maybe this pushes that in the direction of 16 plus. Ethan, what were some of your takeaways here?
- [07:33]
Ethan Kramer Flood
I mean, my first one listening to you guys is that the social networks and particularly Meta, should have taken a lesson from the tobacco people and stop passing around internal documents to talk about all the ways that your own product is dangerous. If you find yourself writing an email about the ways that you might be creating poison, just keep in mind that a judge is going to see it someday.
- [07:53]
Marcus
Yes, and that was one of the things. Some very interesting internal documents. Eli Tan and Cecilia Kang of New York Times pointing to a few. YouTube, they're one of the big tech companies. In this case, a YouTube presentation showed how the company courted under, under 4 year olds comparing itself to a babysitter. Document showed YouTube's parent company referring to some products as slot machines directly and included an image of a casino saying, quote, these are attention casinos. The house always wins. And then in Meta's instance, there were two cases where Meta employees said the company's tactics reminded them of tobacco companies. Linking to what you were saying, Oscar. An internal meta document from 2018 reads, if we win, if we want to win big with tweens, we must bring them in as. Sorry as teens, we must bring them in as tweens. Despite Facebook and Instagram Having a 13 year age limit document saying people who joined Facebook at 11 had four times the long term retention as people who joined at 20.
- [08:54]
Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah, yeah. It's not a good look. It is not a good look. And one of the other things I haven't mentioned yet that I did find fascinating in advance of the trial was that TikTok and Snapchat settled in advance.
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Marcus
Yes.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
When I saw that, I was like, well, that's interesting because if this was going to be a slam dunk victory on the social media side, they wouldn't have settled. I'm guessing now things are also, there's a lot of complicated reasons that people don't want to go to court. Right. So I can't presume as to what that was all about. But if, if they thought this was going to be a walk in the park, they probably wouldn't have done that. Which then signals the possibility on the other side that the plaintiffs consider themselves to have a chance.
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Marcus
Yeah.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Which maybe, maybe on the, in the, in the first instance, when looking at this, we might immediately think that's a tough case. I don't know that they can really prove this. But on the other hand, you know, two of the biggest ones, particularly TikTok, which by our own numbers would probably be the single biggest violator, at least in terms of the amount of time that kids spend on it. They were, they didn't want any part of this. They got out, which, but you know, it's certainly not going to be over
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Marcus
out of this case. Other cases to come this year, there
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Ethan Kramer Flood
are other cases to come. And then, particularly if their peers fail in this case, then, then the, you know, the floodgates are going to open, wide open and no one's going to be safe, certainly. And TikTok might be at the top of the list. And then the other takeaway for me was about YouTube. And of course, everything that you just said is pretty damning in terms of the internal conversation they had. Right. But I do find it fascinating. You know, their take is that we're not a part of this. We're not social media. We're a very different type of person. Product. And all these other ones, we shouldn't even be here. We are, in fact, you know, a digital video entertainment company. We're much more like Netflix. And so, like, how can you put us with these guys when we're. And they have a case according to our own numbers and a lot of the ways that we now talk about YouTube, they really do have a case. They are much more like a video entertainment company than a social media company these days, at least in terms of the percentage of time is spent on it doing one thing versus doing the other, and how people consume it versus for the whole population, not necessarily kids. So they have a case on that. But on the other hand, it's like, so what, I mean, is the judge going to care whether you're a social media or a social network or not? It seems like the merit of the case is still pretty much fundamentally related to the documentation that you just revealed that they were talking about inside. In terms of, like, are, you know, are you a harmful product?
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Marcus
And the addictive design features. Infinite scroll also play algorithmic recommendations. They span across all of these.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah. So if you're. If you're doing these things, it doesn't matter if you're social or not social. Anyway, we're going to come get you. So in my head, I'm like, you know, they really do have a case, but I don't know if that case is going to matter to the people that are making decisions.
- [11:31]
Oscar Orozco
I mean, this is a good point, though. I mean, this could. We're talking way into the future, start impacting just any platform at all that gets too big. Right. We're talking Roblox. It could be specific games that teens and twins are using. So that's what we're referring to. I was referring to at the beginning. The implications spread very far and wide. And it's just the beginning. From my angle, I think this is just a rebuke of just how much time people are spending with devices online and how harmful it can be.
- [12:02]
Marcus
Yeah, yeah. Don't make notes of the incriminating evidence. This is a really big. This one last one really got me one meta document from 2015 showing how an estimated 30% of 10 to 12 year olds in the US were using Instagram and that the company had a goal to increase the time with 10 year olds on, on Instagram. The problem here is, and we've had kind of similar conversations in the past, so it does feel like we're almost at a kind of cultural tipping point. But why should this be any different from, from the other times? To play devil's advocate, causation is always, that seems to be sticking. But causation is almost next to impossible to prove. Correlation is not a crime. And so I think that's where a lot of this will come down to is, and that's what the lawyers are kind of going in on, is that people have other things going on in their lives. How can you point just to social media as the reason this person is struggling with depression or anxiety or mental health issues. What do the experts say? April Rubin of Axios writing the American Psychiatric association defines social media addiction as in quotes, problematic and compulsive use and an abusive obsessive need to check and update platforms. But excessive social media use has not been classified as an addiction. In the DSM 5, which are the authoritative, which is the authoritative guide for diagnosing mental disorders. Big tech lawyers arguing that family abuse and trauma led to the plaintiff's mental health issues and there is no clinical scientific evidence proving that their platform caused addiction. So we're talking about how much folks can't get off their phones in terms of using social media. We look at social media use and our time spent with media forecasts. Ethan, what do our numbers tell us about social media use usage in America?
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah, I mean it's not going to be any surprise to anyone that people spend a lot of time every day on these networks and particularly if you count YouTube. As I mentioned before, we carve YouTube out, we don't count it as a social network but you know, people spend well over an hour and a half per day on the socials and they, you know, spend another almost an hour on YouTube. So it adds, if you add them together, it's, it's one of, if not the biggest chunk of time that we collectively spend. However, as you know, you know, Oscar and I come here once or twice every year and reveal the absolutely horrifying and staggering top line number as to how much time we total spend with media. And it's this God awful figure that's approaching 13 hours. So if you, you know, we come here and we horrify the listeners once or twice a year. So it depends how you look at the social media thing. Because if you think about 13 hours a day with any kind of media, which is what the average adult is doing now in the U.S. you know, an hour and a half with social doesn't actually seem so catastrophic. Yeah, this trial is about kids, you know, so, and this is, this is an all, all population, adult population figure. And to what degree something is harmful for kids is a different kind of a question. But social networks, you know, they're only, they're, they're taking an hour and 37 a day, but that's, that's, you know, what, 17% of the pie. So, but some, in some cases, it doesn't look that bad. We spend, we as a society spend more time with subscription streaming. We spend far more time with Netflix and Disney plus and Hulu and Amazon prime and all those guys than we do with social tv. We actually spend more time with tv.
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Marcus
That's shocking.
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Oscar Orozco
But it's getting close, I think. You know, we don't have, we don't have these numbers, but I would say within the next five years, it's very possible social time will surpass, you know, linear TV time. Right.
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Marcus
We have digital video overtaking linear soon.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Digital video has long since overtaken tv, so we've split it up, you know, into the types of radio. So the subscription streaming will overtake TV next year. People were probably surprised to find out that hasn't happened already. In fact, people might be surprised to find out that social networks haven't overtaken TV yet, but they haven't still spent two hours a day with tv. So there's just a lot, you know, between gaming and digital audio and radio and, and print and reading and YouTube and messaging and everything you do on your phone. The social part of it does end up kind of small. So I guess this would be an argument that the social folks would use in their trial.
- [16:33]
Oscar Orozco
But they could, I would argue, you know, we have other seven other markets that we estimate that we have estimates for here at eMarketer. And you know, the US from a social angle, it's much higher than markets like the uk, Canada. You know, we look at Japan, South Korea, China, France and Germany. So, yeah, I mean, there's, there's no comparison. Yeah, the U.S. numbers, the average daily engagement numbers are way higher. Some of these shares are crazy. I mean, another way of looking at it is it's higher than just the average time people spend on their desktop or laptop. You know, they spend just with their, with their subscription, with their, excuse me, with their social networks. And you Know, we're, you know, we just expect growth to happen. There's so many big drivers. Right. AI curating the, the content people see is becoming more addicting. More video in social, we know video drives up time, so. And there are new platforms like Threads is a huge catalyst and we're seeing, you know, blue sky and just other smaller players. And then, you know, so much growth we've seen with like Reddit and LinkedIn. So yeah, the numbers are going to keep going up. They will.
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Marcus
They are starting to slow down. Down. Right. In terms of like I was looking at both across adult population. So it's an hour and 37 minutes that is ticking up by like a minute or two every year across social network users. It seems to have almost kind of plateaued.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah.
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Marcus
In terms of social network.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Right. Yeah. Which is, which is an interesting storyline that they could also emphasize almost to the point of like this argument is happening too late and that the era of explosive social network growth is already over. Many of them are peaking. And then at an individual platform level, many of these guys could also tell the story of like, hey man, we're actually losing now. I don't think Mark Zuckerberg wants to go out, you know, in public and trial and talk about how Facebook is actually struggling. But it is. Right. So, you know, unfortunately he owns Instagram also, so he can't really make the case. But you know, Instagram is still growing like gangbusters and claiming more share and gaining minutes. Reddit is on fire is, you know, taking more and more of everyone's time, but many of them aren't, you know, X is going down. No surprises there. But Snapchat is also going down, losing users and losing time. TikTok has start was declining for a little while now. It's sort of plateauing. So they do have different stories. And the way in which we as a society are interacting with these platforms is not the same. Many of them are actually losing time. Again, this is the whole population, not kids. So TikTok probably doesn't have a strong leg to stand on when it's relationship with kids with the under 18 set. But overall it's not there. Many of these guys are not actually in as strong a position as they once were because we are all doing other things now. And maybe there's social fatigue, social network, social media fatigue. I think that's certainly a real thing. Competition is fierce. People are moving away from this. They're spending more time in front of their CTVs. We're watching traditional sort of long form Content, whether we're paying for it or watching it for free. And actually we're doing that on YouTube also. Right. So YouTube doesn't really have a leg to stand on. They're still experiencing explosive growth because of all the different ways you can use over half. It depends who you are, where you're sitting.
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Marcus
I think over half watching on ctv.
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Oscar Orozco
Now look at my, my kind of quick counter argument is this is all true. This is what our numbers show. But you know, it can change. I mean, I would say our estimates have, over the years, consistently we've, we've under, you know, sort of forecasted this, this metric, this engagement metric. And I think you mentioned some of this, Ethan, the CTV story. I mean, we are seeing meta IG specifically making a push toward a connected TV app that's going to drive up, it could drive up engagement. Right. The AI story I mentioned, that's boosting content relevance. It's unlocking more value there for the users. I mean, Reddit, if it really, really becomes that Wikipedia of sorts, right? This new search engine for users and, and then even the social commerce story, we're seeing growth there. What if they can really unlock that, that commerce piece? You know, people start shopping there. So there are all of these. We are seeing that. But you know, what I'm saying is keep it, keep an eye on these numbers. They could very well. We could be wrong. They could very well.
- [20:54]
Marcus
I think that's an episode in the making, is social media's pivot to CTV especially. Consider many people using social media are there just to consume the content. Right? We saw that with TikTok or some of the numbers. Like I think Pew research showing about 25% of people on TikTok are creating. Everyone else is just consuming. So if you have that much consumption, why not open up an app on a TV and consume. And maybe there's a camera in your TV or you put it on top of your TV and if you want to make content in front of the TV and post it, then you can. Similar to X Twitter years ago, I think it was like a handbook. A couple of percent of Twitter users were the ones who were doing most of the. I think it was 10% of the users responsible for 80% of the content. Something like that. So absolutely an episode we should, we should talk about. I want to widen the lens to end the episode though. We were talking a lot about social media addiction and social media use. What do the numbers say? Ethan, you've been working on some research for us about time spent with media in general. So that's looking, as we said, traditional tv, radio, print, digital platforms. What were some of the most interesting takeaways from your updated research in terms of where else Americans spend time with media?
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Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah, I mean, so this is the general top line stuff that we report on twice a year. There's lots and lots of interesting stuff in here. I encourage anyone who can to go read the report. Breaks it all down by activity and by device and by platform. Probably just the growth story in as much as that horrifying top line number of 13 hours a day that we're all spending with media in turn means that growth is pretty hard to find. We're all so maxed out. And so although it does continue to increase, that top line number does continue to go up every year. The amount of media activities that are actually seeing increases has become quite small. So almost all growth now basically just comes from digital video via ctv. Right. Which ties into what we were talking about. This is why the social networks are like how do we. To your point, Marcus? And you know, we have a colleague, Minda, who focuses a lot on this. Like why are the social media companies so desperate to figure out a way to get onto CTV and have us start scrolling their nonsense on ctv? Because that's where basically all the growth is now. But the growth is entirely going, almost entirely going to subscription streaming, free ad supported streaming television, aka fast and YouTube, because YouTube is now what we all do on our CTVs. That's it. I mean there's three things that, that accounts for almost all the growth we're seeing anywhere in any form. The rest of them, whether it's digital gaming or digital audio or messaging or whatever, or social networks, you know, they, they might gain a minute, maybe two minutes, maybe they'll lose. I think gaming is even losing time. Yeah. Or they're just totally flat. So for those, for those folks still looking for new time, it's really come down to just digital video, vibes, tv.
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Marcus
Oscar, how about for you, what were some of your takeaways?
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Oscar Orozco
Yeah, I mean I think what Ethan said is again are the main drivers, but I really want to shout out platforms like Spotify, like Apple Music. So the, the digital audio piece, why we are seeing more of this intersection of video and audio. Spotify is really pushing, you know, video videos in, in their, in their platform. So you're seeing that they're also move towards the ctv. And we are seeing that in our numbers there's more time, more engagement with audio platforms on the ctv. So that goes very well. With the video component and of course, podcasting. We're on one right now. We're seeing growth there, audiobooks. So I think that there's a lot of potential on the audio side. And I think it's, you know, Apple
- [24:39]
Marcus
Podcast just announcing that video. They're going to be offering a video podcast as well.
- [24:43]
Oscar Orozco
For the first video podcast, one of the big stories, you know, last year was the YouTube story with video podcast. So a lot there with the audio piece. I think it's something that's done some of the time more passively, but it is such an important part of, you know, media consumption for users. So I would call that.
- [25:01]
Ethan Kramer Flood
That's a good shout out. The last time we were on here, we were shouting out podcast data too, on, I think ad spending. It's a good point that podcast growth is still pretty strong even though top line audio isn't, which almost suggests that podcasts are stealing time from music. Yeah, not sure if we, if we actually declare that because podcasts are growing, but audio overall isn't really growing.
- [25:23]
Oscar Orozco
We don't show them, certainly. And I think Spotify would say that they are not seeing that type of, you know, cannibalization internally. And I don't think that's the case. Something that we will have to monitor.
- [25:34]
Ethan Kramer Flood
But yeah, yeah, we'll take a look.
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Marcus
Yeah, audio, that's a good one. We've got them listed fourth here. So traditional tv subscription, ott, social networks and digital audio about an hour and a half, just shy of an hour and a half of time every single day. The one I had was just traditional holding its own. Despite how digital our lives feel, 30 of our media consumption is still spent with traditional media. Next year, 29. So from 30 to 29. So going down, but very, very slowly, at least for this year. Traditional TV is number one media channel in terms of time spent. Radio is in fifth and way ahead of time spent with digital gaming or YouTube.
- [26:17]
Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah, shout out. Traditional TV, I think for many of us probably just spent an inordinately unusually large amount of time with our regular TVs watching the Olympics. So it's like, it's not hard to believe there are certain times when you do notice yourself just watching tv.
- [26:31]
Marcus
Like, oh, yeah, this works.
- [26:35]
Oscar Orozco
I mentioned even like radio in cars. You know, that's a big driver of radio time. So that's still very much a thing. And so, yeah, that's another driver for sure.
- [26:46]
Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah.
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Marcus
I bought a newspaper this past weekend. I buy a paper every Sunday just because I like something physical to read. Where I'm not. There's not a ton of ads or things like Infinite Scroll. I can just sit and read the paper. And my dad nearly had. I'm at home right now in England, you know, he was like, newspaper. He went. He had to touch it. He was like, wow.
- [27:05]
Ethan Kramer Flood
Yeah.
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Marcus
He tried to scroll, he tries to swipe across. It says, no, it works. You have to turn the page. But yeah, pred still there because of me. I'm propping up the market. Anyway, Ethan's full report is called US Time Spent with Media in 2026. Also, he's got a time spent with social media report coming out in a couple of days. And look out for the time spent with OTT video as well. Proposal subscribers can head to emarkarter.com link is of course in the show notes, at least for the US Time spent one, you have to head to the site for the others. That's all we have time for today. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you. First to Ethan.
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Ethan Kramer Flood
I'm going back into my hibernation den.
- [27:42]
Marcus
Wait out this summer. Thank you so much to Oscar.
- [27:47]
Oscar Orozco
You've made me want to read. Maybe like a magazine. I think I might do that. I might do that. Physical.
- [27:52]
Marcus
Rolling Stone, Sports Illustrated. Where are we at?
- [27:55]
Oscar Orozco
There you go. Yeah. The Economist.
- [27:58]
Marcus
He doesn't read the Economist. Thanks so much to the production. Of course, fella. Thank you to production crew down Danny and Lance helping us out with this one. And they really did have to help us out because Oscar was just a disaster at the beginning. Thanks to him. And thanks to everyone for listening to behind the Numbers in the Market podcast. Come hang with Susie on Wednesday for the Reimagining retail show where she'll be speaking with Blake and Sky to ask, does every retailer need a chief entertainment officer like G.