Behind the Numbers: An EMARKETER Podcast Episode: Around the World: The International Forecasts of Past (2024), Present (now), and Future (2025) Release Date: December 23, 2024
In the December 23rd episode of EMARKETER’s Behind the Numbers podcast, host Bill Fisher delves into the international forecasts spanning the past year, the present landscape, and projections for 2025. This episode, titled "Around the World," features insightful discussions with EMARKETER’s senior forecasting analysts: Zach Goldner, Oscar Orozco, and Principal Writer Ethan Kramer. The conversation navigates through bold predictions, roundtable debates, and an evaluation of past forecasting accuracy, providing a comprehensive overview for marketers, retailers, and advertisers keen on understanding the global digital media terrain.
1. Culture Shock: Fortune Telling and Predictive Insights (00:00 - 05:07)
Bill Fisher kickstarts the episode with a light-hearted segment on cultural "predictors of the future," highlighting the prescient nature of French seers like Nostradamus and literary figures such as Jules Verne. Fisher cites Verne’s 1865 prediction in From the Earth to the Moon, drawing parallels to modern space endeavors:
“Jules Verne...where in it the rocket launch was placed in Florida... the crew total three, the spacecraft was called the Columbiad...” (04:03)
The discussion underscores the surprising accuracy of historical predictions, setting a thematic foundation for the episode’s focus on forecasting.
2. Bold Predictions: Three in Three (06:22 - 12:50)
In the "Three in Three" segment, each guest presents a bold forecast for 2025 or beyond, offering a glimpse into emerging trends and potential market shifts.
a. Ethan Kramer: The Endurance of a US TikTok Ban (06:22 - 08:33)
Ethan Kramer posits that a permanent ban on TikTok in the United States is imminent, anticipating a significant decline in the platform’s user base and consequential impacts on ByteDance’s valuation and advertising revenues:
“I think probably most listeners are aware that the ball is already rolling on this ban... slowly over the course of the year, TikTok will lose the 120 million users that it currently has in the US...” (06:50)
Kramer highlights the historical precedent set by India’s similar ban, suggesting a likely demise of TikTok’s presence in the American market within months.
b. Oscar Orozco: Reddit Surpassing X in Ad Revenue by 2026 (08:40 - 10:24)
Oscar Orozco forecasts that Reddit’s advertising revenue will exceed that of X (formerly Twitter) by 2026, driven by Reddit’s rapid growth and strategic advancements in AI-powered search and global expansion:
“Reddit is already the fastest growing property out of all of them... I am predicting that by 2026, Reddit's ad business will actually surpass X's in size.” (09:00)
Orozco emphasizes Reddit’s potential to outpace established platforms like ByteDance and Pinterest, attributing this growth to robust user engagement and innovative advertising solutions.
c. Zach Goldner: Argentina as the Fastest Growing Latin American Economy (10:29 - 12:50)
Zach Goldner projects that Argentina will emerge as the fastest-growing economy in Latin America by the latter half of the decade. He attributes this to President Javier Milei’s aggressive economic reforms, including government spending cuts, industry deregulation, and the controversial dollarization of the economy:
“In 2025 and in the latter half of the decade as more foreign investors rush Argentina... I think we're going to see it as the fastest growing Latin American economy and one of the strongest in the world.” (11:20)
Goldner outlines the current economic challenges, including high inflation and poverty rates, and anticipates significant recovery and investor interest driven by transformative policies.
3. Roundtable Discussion: Evaluating Bold Predictions (12:50 - 33:45)
The episode transitions into a roundtable discussion where the hosts and guests dissect each other’s predictions, providing depth and multiple perspectives on the proposed forecasts.
a. TikTok Ban Debate
Ethan Kramer stands by his prediction of a sustained TikTok ban, questioning the likelihood of a sale or rescue that would preserve TikTok’s presence in the US:
“There won't be any Americans on there. What will that be like for you, Bill… it's going to have some pretty big ramifications for ByteDance's valuations and advertising revenue.” (07:00)
Zach Goldner counters by highlighting the potential financial motivations for the Chinese government to retain TikTok’s viability, suggesting a possible sale worth up to $100 billion:
“TikTok could sell for upwards of a hundred billion dollars. That's a lot of moolah... I don't think it's just going to go poof as of January 19th.” (14:10)
Oscar Orozco adds that shifting consumer sentiments and political pressures may influence the outcome, noting a decline in public support for the ban:
“Consumers here in the US who used to support the ban back in March of 2023, it was 50% of them, and that's gone down… I think that plays a huge part in it.” (15:00)
The debate underscores the complexity of geopolitical and economic factors influencing such a decisive move against a major social media platform.
b. Reddit vs. X’s Advertising Revenue
Oscar Orozco champions his bold prediction on Reddit’s ad revenues, emphasizing its surpassing of X by 2026 due to Reddit’s innovative ad strategies and moderate decline in X’s ad performance:
“Reddit is the fastest growing digital ad platform globally... I think Reddit will continue to gain on Twitter on X.” (17:03)
Ethan Kramer acknowledges Reddit’s potential but redirects focus to the uncertain trajectory of X, suggesting that while Reddit’s growth is predictable, X’s future remains volatile:
“The idea that Reddit is going to do well is a solid take. I think a more interesting take would be to decide what you think is going to happen with X...” (17:20)
Zach Goldner complements Oscar’s view by discussing Reddit’s international expansion through advanced translation models, anticipating enhanced user engagement and revenue streams:
“International users just make up 50% of Reddit's users, but only 19% of its revenues... they will be rolling out machine learning translation to 35 new countries.” (16:50)
c. Argentina’s Economic Growth
Goldner elaborates on Argentina’s projected economic surge, detailing President Milei’s policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and attracting foreign investment. The discussion highlights the precarious balance between economic reforms and social challenges:
“They are taking drastic measures to try to change around the situation... there's 50% of its people in poverty.” (11:10)
The hosts examine the feasibility of such rapid economic transformation, considering historical context and current geopolitical dynamics. While acknowledging the boldness of the prediction, they agree that Argentina’s trajectory will significantly influence the region’s economic landscape.
4. Evaluating Past Forecasts: Successes and Misses (19:20 - 26:34)
Bill Fisher introduces a segment to assess the accuracy of previous forecasts, focusing on major digital platforms like X, Amazon, and Meta.
a. X (Formerly Twitter)
Zach Goldner reflects on the misalignment between forecasts and reality regarding X’s user engagement post-Elon Musk’s takeover:
“Early predictions were that declines would accelerate over time, but the ship didn't sink. It's more of a slow leak.” (19:50)
Goldner notes that while X’s ad revenues have halved, the user base has not declined as sharply as anticipated, attributing stability to X’s role in public discourse and live events.
b. Amazon’s Advertising Revenue
Ethan Kramer discusses an over-optimistic forecast for Amazon’s retail media ad revenue, which underperformed expectations by reaching only 19% growth instead of the projected 26-27%:
“Amazon ad revenue worldwide growing at 19% instead of in the high 20s like we thought. That's a little bit of a miss.” (23:00)
Oscar Orozco concurs, attributing the slowdown to increased competition from other retailers like Instacart and Walmart expanding their ad businesses, thereby diluting Amazon’s growth potential.
c. Meta’s Performance
Contrarily, Meta (Facebook) exceeded forecasts, continuing to dominate global ad revenues through strategic features and user retention efforts:
“Their video was also a huge driver. And their growth in this last year... really strong driver for why Meta outperformed... and will continue to be a strong player.” (25:00)
Zach Goldner attributes Meta’s resilience to successful engagement strategies and maintaining appeal across diverse demographics, countering earlier predictions of a demographic decline.
5. Recap Stats Quiz: Testing Forecasting Knowledge (26:34 - 33:45)
The episode concludes with Bill Fisher hosting an engaging "Recap Stats Quiz," challenging guests and listeners with questions related to international forecasts:
-
Country-Specific Forecasting Expansion:
Question: Which Western European country is still not individually forecasted by EMARKETER?
Options: A) Greece, B) Iceland, C) Ireland
Answer: B) Iceland -
X User Growth Anomaly:
Question: In which country did X witness an increase in user numbers in 2024, contrary to global trends?
Options: A) France, B) Japan, C) The U.S.
Answer: B) Japan -
YouTube Penetration Leader:
Question: Which region leads in YouTube penetration as a proportion of total digital video viewers?
Options: A) Central and Eastern Europe, B) Latin America, C) The Middle East and Africa
Answer: A) Central and Eastern Europe
Additionally, a tie-breaker question on internet user penetration in India revealed that 50% of the population are internet users, slightly below the actual figure of 55%.
The quiz serves as a playful yet informative recap, reinforcing key statistics and fostering a deeper understanding of global digital media trends.
6. Closing Remarks and Future Outlook (33:28 - 33:45)
As the episode wraps up, Bill Fisher hints at upcoming changes for the Behind the Numbers podcast roster in 2025, promising continued global coverage and enhanced content. Guests express their gratitude and holiday wishes, culminating in a warm sign-off and anticipation for future episodes.
“I predict you will continue to get stellar international podcast content on Behind the Numbers in 2025.” (33:38)
Conclusion
This episode of Behind the Numbers offers a multifaceted exploration of international digital media forecasts, bolstered by expert analyses and dynamic discussions. From the potential removal of TikTok in the US to Reddit’s anticipated dominance and Argentina’s economic revival, the insights provided equip listeners with a nuanced understanding of evolving global trends. The evaluation of past forecasts further adds credibility, illustrating the complexities and unpredictabilities inherent in market predictions. As EMARKETER continues to expand its forecasting horizons, listeners can look forward to informed and strategic content shaping their approach to the digital media landscape in 2025 and beyond.