Around the World: The International Forecasts of Past (2024), Present (now), and Future (2025) | Dec 23, 2024

Summary

Behind the Numbers: An EMARKETER Podcast Episode: Around the World: The International Forecasts of Past (2024), Present (now), and Future (2025) Release Date: December 23, 2024

In the December 23rd episode of EMARKETER’s Behind the Numbers podcast, host Bill Fisher delves into the international forecasts spanning the past year, the present landscape, and projections for 2025. This episode, titled "Around the World," features insightful discussions with EMARKETER’s senior forecasting analysts: Zach Goldner, Oscar Orozco, and Principal Writer Ethan Kramer. The conversation navigates through bold predictions, roundtable debates, and an evaluation of past forecasting accuracy, providing a comprehensive overview for marketers, retailers, and advertisers keen on understanding the global digital media terrain.

1. Culture Shock: Fortune Telling and Predictive Insights (00:00 - 05:07)

Bill Fisher kickstarts the episode with a light-hearted segment on cultural "predictors of the future," highlighting the prescient nature of French seers like Nostradamus and literary figures such as Jules Verne. Fisher cites Verne’s 1865 prediction in From the Earth to the Moon, drawing parallels to modern space endeavors:

“Jules Verne...where in it the rocket launch was placed in Florida... the crew total three, the spacecraft was called the Columbiad...” (04:03)

The discussion underscores the surprising accuracy of historical predictions, setting a thematic foundation for the episode’s focus on forecasting.

2. Bold Predictions: Three in Three (06:22 - 12:50)

In the "Three in Three" segment, each guest presents a bold forecast for 2025 or beyond, offering a glimpse into emerging trends and potential market shifts.

a. Ethan Kramer: The Endurance of a US TikTok Ban (06:22 - 08:33)

Ethan Kramer posits that a permanent ban on TikTok in the United States is imminent, anticipating a significant decline in the platform’s user base and consequential impacts on ByteDance’s valuation and advertising revenues:

“I think probably most listeners are aware that the ball is already rolling on this ban... slowly over the course of the year, TikTok will lose the 120 million users that it currently has in the US...” (06:50)

Kramer highlights the historical precedent set by India’s similar ban, suggesting a likely demise of TikTok’s presence in the American market within months.

b. Oscar Orozco: Reddit Surpassing X in Ad Revenue by 2026 (08:40 - 10:24)

Oscar Orozco forecasts that Reddit’s advertising revenue will exceed that of X (formerly Twitter) by 2026, driven by Reddit’s rapid growth and strategic advancements in AI-powered search and global expansion:

“Reddit is already the fastest growing property out of all of them... I am predicting that by 2026, Reddit's ad business will actually surpass X's in size.” (09:00)

Orozco emphasizes Reddit’s potential to outpace established platforms like ByteDance and Pinterest, attributing this growth to robust user engagement and innovative advertising solutions.

c. Zach Goldner: Argentina as the Fastest Growing Latin American Economy (10:29 - 12:50)

Zach Goldner projects that Argentina will emerge as the fastest-growing economy in Latin America by the latter half of the decade. He attributes this to President Javier Milei’s aggressive economic reforms, including government spending cuts, industry deregulation, and the controversial dollarization of the economy:

“In 2025 and in the latter half of the decade as more foreign investors rush Argentina... I think we're going to see it as the fastest growing Latin American economy and one of the strongest in the world.” (11:20)

Goldner outlines the current economic challenges, including high inflation and poverty rates, and anticipates significant recovery and investor interest driven by transformative policies.

3. Roundtable Discussion: Evaluating Bold Predictions (12:50 - 33:45)

The episode transitions into a roundtable discussion where the hosts and guests dissect each other’s predictions, providing depth and multiple perspectives on the proposed forecasts.

a. TikTok Ban Debate

Ethan Kramer stands by his prediction of a sustained TikTok ban, questioning the likelihood of a sale or rescue that would preserve TikTok’s presence in the US:

“There won't be any Americans on there. What will that be like for you, Bill… it's going to have some pretty big ramifications for ByteDance's valuations and advertising revenue.” (07:00)

Zach Goldner counters by highlighting the potential financial motivations for the Chinese government to retain TikTok’s viability, suggesting a possible sale worth up to $100 billion:

“TikTok could sell for upwards of a hundred billion dollars. That's a lot of moolah... I don't think it's just going to go poof as of January 19th.” (14:10)

Oscar Orozco adds that shifting consumer sentiments and political pressures may influence the outcome, noting a decline in public support for the ban:

“Consumers here in the US who used to support the ban back in March of 2023, it was 50% of them, and that's gone down… I think that plays a huge part in it.” (15:00)

The debate underscores the complexity of geopolitical and economic factors influencing such a decisive move against a major social media platform.

b. Reddit vs. X’s Advertising Revenue

Oscar Orozco champions his bold prediction on Reddit’s ad revenues, emphasizing its surpassing of X by 2026 due to Reddit’s innovative ad strategies and moderate decline in X’s ad performance:

“Reddit is the fastest growing digital ad platform globally... I think Reddit will continue to gain on Twitter on X.” (17:03)

Ethan Kramer acknowledges Reddit’s potential but redirects focus to the uncertain trajectory of X, suggesting that while Reddit’s growth is predictable, X’s future remains volatile:

“The idea that Reddit is going to do well is a solid take. I think a more interesting take would be to decide what you think is going to happen with X...” (17:20)

Zach Goldner complements Oscar’s view by discussing Reddit’s international expansion through advanced translation models, anticipating enhanced user engagement and revenue streams:

“International users just make up 50% of Reddit's users, but only 19% of its revenues... they will be rolling out machine learning translation to 35 new countries.” (16:50)

c. Argentina’s Economic Growth

Goldner elaborates on Argentina’s projected economic surge, detailing President Milei’s policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and attracting foreign investment. The discussion highlights the precarious balance between economic reforms and social challenges:

“They are taking drastic measures to try to change around the situation... there's 50% of its people in poverty.” (11:10)

The hosts examine the feasibility of such rapid economic transformation, considering historical context and current geopolitical dynamics. While acknowledging the boldness of the prediction, they agree that Argentina’s trajectory will significantly influence the region’s economic landscape.

4. Evaluating Past Forecasts: Successes and Misses (19:20 - 26:34)

Bill Fisher introduces a segment to assess the accuracy of previous forecasts, focusing on major digital platforms like X, Amazon, and Meta.

a. X (Formerly Twitter)

Zach Goldner reflects on the misalignment between forecasts and reality regarding X’s user engagement post-Elon Musk’s takeover:

“Early predictions were that declines would accelerate over time, but the ship didn't sink. It's more of a slow leak.” (19:50)

Goldner notes that while X’s ad revenues have halved, the user base has not declined as sharply as anticipated, attributing stability to X’s role in public discourse and live events.

b. Amazon’s Advertising Revenue

Ethan Kramer discusses an over-optimistic forecast for Amazon’s retail media ad revenue, which underperformed expectations by reaching only 19% growth instead of the projected 26-27%:

“Amazon ad revenue worldwide growing at 19% instead of in the high 20s like we thought. That's a little bit of a miss.” (23:00)

Oscar Orozco concurs, attributing the slowdown to increased competition from other retailers like Instacart and Walmart expanding their ad businesses, thereby diluting Amazon’s growth potential.

c. Meta’s Performance

Contrarily, Meta (Facebook) exceeded forecasts, continuing to dominate global ad revenues through strategic features and user retention efforts:

“Their video was also a huge driver. And their growth in this last year... really strong driver for why Meta outperformed... and will continue to be a strong player.” (25:00)

Zach Goldner attributes Meta’s resilience to successful engagement strategies and maintaining appeal across diverse demographics, countering earlier predictions of a demographic decline.

5. Recap Stats Quiz: Testing Forecasting Knowledge (26:34 - 33:45)

The episode concludes with Bill Fisher hosting an engaging "Recap Stats Quiz," challenging guests and listeners with questions related to international forecasts:

1. Country-Specific Forecasting Expansion:
   Question: Which Western European country is still not individually forecasted by EMARKETER?
   Options: A) Greece, B) Iceland, C) Ireland
   Answer: B) Iceland

2. X User Growth Anomaly:
   Question: In which country did X witness an increase in user numbers in 2024, contrary to global trends?
   Options: A) France, B) Japan, C) The U.S.
   Answer: B) Japan

3. YouTube Penetration Leader:
   Question: Which region leads in YouTube penetration as a proportion of total digital video viewers?
   Options: A) Central and Eastern Europe, B) Latin America, C) The Middle East and Africa
   Answer: A) Central and Eastern Europe

Additionally, a tie-breaker question on internet user penetration in India revealed that 50% of the population are internet users, slightly below the actual figure of 55%.

The quiz serves as a playful yet informative recap, reinforcing key statistics and fostering a deeper understanding of global digital media trends.

6. Closing Remarks and Future Outlook (33:28 - 33:45)

As the episode wraps up, Bill Fisher hints at upcoming changes for the Behind the Numbers podcast roster in 2025, promising continued global coverage and enhanced content. Guests express their gratitude and holiday wishes, culminating in a warm sign-off and anticipation for future episodes.

“I predict you will continue to get stellar international podcast content on Behind the Numbers in 2025.” (33:38)

Conclusion

This episode of Behind the Numbers offers a multifaceted exploration of international digital media forecasts, bolstered by expert analyses and dynamic discussions. From the potential removal of TikTok in the US to Reddit’s anticipated dominance and Argentina’s economic revival, the insights provided equip listeners with a nuanced understanding of evolving global trends. The evaluation of past forecasts further adds credibility, illustrating the complexities and unpredictabilities inherent in market predictions. As EMARKETER continues to expand its forecasting horizons, listeners can look forward to informed and strategic content shaping their approach to the digital media landscape in 2025 and beyond.

Transcript

[Bill Fisher]

What does data collaboration do? It enables innovative companies to uncover powerful new insights that transform customer experiences and fuel business growth. With Liveramp, Marketers get the industry's only interoperable platform for data collaboration across everything cloud, walled garden and media platform. Learn [e-mail] hello everyone. Welcome to behind the Numbers around the World, an E marketer podcast made possible by liveramp foreign December 23rd. I'm your host, Bill Fisher, and it's my pleasure, as it always is, to welcome you all to around the world. And this month we're looking at our international forecasts, past, present and future. Welcome folks, to a Behind the Numbers show that takes you around the world looking at what various countries are doing in the worlds of commerce, media and advertising. Each month we have our three in three recap. Then we have the roundtable where my guests and I have an open discussion about the main theme for today's show. And we finish it all off with my recap stats quiz, all related to the topic at hand. This month we will be asking, what will a US TikTok ban mean for our worldwide user forecast?

[Ethan Kramer]

And to me, this leaves a situation where the easiest and most likely outcome is to not really do much of anything and just let the ball roll. And right now, when the ball rolls, we're going to have no TikTok.

[Bill Fisher]

How big of an advertising player could Reddit become?

[Oscar Orozco]

I mean, we're talking growing faster than ByteDance, than Kwai show, than, you know, the metas, the Pinterest, Amazons, which is crazy if you think about it. And I'm thinking that we might be underestimating, you know, where it will go.

[Bill Fisher]

And can Argentina's economy get a boost from E commerce?

[Zach Goldner]

I think we're going to see Argentina's third largest Latin American market release its full economic potential and there will be a recovery in 2025 and in the latter half of the decade as more foreign investors rush Argentina. I think we're going to see it as the fastest growing Latin American economy and one of the strongest in the world.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay, I have some forecasting mavens to help me today. Let's introduce them. First up, he's a senior forecasting analyst at eMarketer. It's Zach Goldner. Hello, Zach.

[Zach Goldner]

Hey, Bill. Happy to be on here. Happy holidays.

[Bill Fisher]

Great to have you on the show. Next, he's our senior director of forecasting, It's Oscar Orozco. Hi, Oscar.

[Oscar Orozco]

Hey, Bill. Hey, listeners. Super happy to be on. Thanks.

[Bill Fisher]

Great to have you back. And last but not least, he's our Principal, forever forecasting writer and semi regular on around the World, it's Ethan Kramer. Flood. Hi, Ethan.

[Ethan Kramer]

Bill. The only reason I'm not on vacation already is because of you. How does that make you feel?

[Bill Fisher]

That makes me feel great. That's a warm side. Okay, before we get into this episode proper, let me introduce you first of all to this month's culture shock. And we're looking at predictions today for obvious reasons. I have a question for you guys. It's not statistically sound, this one, I'm afraid. I haven't really counted exhaustively, but which country do you think has the best seers or prophetic fortune tellers? Predictors of the future, if you will.

[Ethan Kramer]

What hit me with a country according to who?

[Bill Fisher]

Fortune tellers, according to me.

[Zach Goldner]

Right here.

[Oscar Orozco]

In the US of A. I was.

[Ethan Kramer]

Just gonna say outside of the marketer, I assume you mean.

[Bill Fisher]

Well, there's three of you here, obviously the U.S. but any other countries you want to throw out there, I'll do it for you. How about France? Right? This is where Nostradamus comes from. Best fortune teller of all, of course. But he was not the only one. And I want to introduce you to a couple of others. The French author Jules Verne, you've probably heard of him. Very good job of predicting space exploration in his 1865 book, from the Earth to the Moon. Where in it the rocket launch was placed in Florida. The crew total three, the spacecraft was called the Columbiad, and the returning astronauts parachuted home into the sea. Sounds familiar? Should do. 11 was launched from Florida with a crew of three. The command module was called Columbia, and the crew parachuted into the Pacific Ocean. That's pretty impressive, right?

[Oscar Orozco]

Oh, yeah.

[Bill Fisher]

Anyway, I have another one. Another remarkable prediction from a French aristocrat and political philosopher called Alexis de Tocqueville, who toured the US in the early part of the 19th century. After his travels, in 1840, he wrote a book called Democracy in America. And in it, he. He essentially predicted the Cold War, stating that the two countries of America and Russia would hold the destinies of half the world in their hands one day. And I should add, this was a far from popular belief at the time, but just over 100 years later, he was proven spot on. So you see, they're pretty good, these French folks, at predicting.

[Ethan Kramer]

We're giving France a lot of credit.

[Oscar Orozco]

I have a lot. A lot to read on Wikipedia later.

[Bill Fisher]

Next time you're recruiting guys, go. Chance.

[Ethan Kramer]

The notion of giving science fiction writers credit for being seers when they're not actually trying to be. They're just trying to write something fun and then it works out. I think the US Would actually do pretty well at that. We have a lot of sci fi writers who predicted things like the Internet and other such things.

[Zach Goldner]

All credit in the world to the Simpsons founder Matt Groening. I think he's been pretty spot on. I don't know if he's from France.

[Ethan Kramer]

But what about the reverse?

[Zach Goldner]

He's not a few of them.

[Ethan Kramer]

What about the Mayan calendar where the world was supposed to end and it didn't happen? Do they get negative points?

[Bill Fisher]

Oh, there's loads of that.

[Oscar Orozco]

2001 a space in Egypt as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no credit.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay. Anyway, time to move on. And this is. We could talk about this all day, but let's get into the predictions proper. We're going to move into our three in three segment now. There's usually three and three news. We've adapted it slightly for today's show. We have the three guests, of course, and we're going to talk in for three minutes. But I'm going to ask each of my guests for their boldest prediction for 2025 or beyond. We're looking at the ghosts of forecasts yet to come. They will have just one minute to give me their prediction and a brief explanation as to why they think it will come to fruition. And we're going to start with Ethan. What's your prediction and why will it come true?

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah, I've got a good one. So this is not incorporated into our official forecast yet, but it would certainly have a huge impact. So my prediction is that the US ban on TikTok will endure. It will happen. It will come into play. And this will have a jarring effect on the social life of many Americans, but also on geopolitics and obviously TikTok itself and its parent company, ByteDance. So I think probably most listeners are aware that the ball is already rolling on this ban. And the question now is not whether or not legally TikTok is in trouble. The question is whether or not it's going to be rescued. If nothing else happens, it will be gone. Slowly but surely, it will vanish from the app stores in America within the next month or so. And my prediction is that everybody who says that somehow this isn't going to happen is wrong. And that slowly, over the course of the year, TikTok will lose its. Well, over the next several years, TikTok will lose the 120 million users that it currently has in the US and that this will have a jarring effect on a lot of factors. So at the moment, we've got TikTok. With 1.1 billion users worldwide, what will TikTok look like if it suddenly loses all those Americans? 120 million. Now, there's precedent for this because India did the same thing four years ago. And at the time, actually, TikTok lost something relatively similar to that number of users. They just sort of vanished. So we know that TikTok will keep rolling. It will be able to continue. It will still have probably close to a billion users. There won't be any Americans on there. What will that be like for you, Bill, and you folks over there? I'm sure it'll be devastating to lose the charm and hilarity of all those US TikTok users, but it's going to have some pretty big ramifications for ByteDance's valuations and advertising revenue. And I don't know yet the future of Whether or not TikTok maintains its place at the top of the advertising industry. But we'll see, we'll see. Right now, the forecast does not incorporate the loss of all of that, but I think that we'll have to change that forecast.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay, thanks, Ethan. Very interesting. And you fit the brief. Very bold. Okay, moving on now to Oscar. What have you got for us?

[Oscar Orozco]

Bold indeed. Ethan, We've discussed this a lot and I would just say it's clear Ethan is not French, because I don't think that's going to happen. But we can get to that later. So my prediction, my prediction, maybe it's a bit less bold, but still pretty bold indeed. It's about Reddit and, you know, we currently estimate that X, formerly Twitter's worldwide ad revenues, will remain above Reddit's out to 2026, which is the end of our forecasting years. I am predicting that by 2026, Reddit's ad business will actually surpass X's in size. So I think it's going to come earlier than our own forecast predict. So, you know, it was Reddit was making 590 million in 2022, and I think by 2026 it'll surpass 2 billion. So massive, massive growth. When you look at all of the digital ad properties that we do cover here at eMarketer, I mean, we're talking over 30 properties and entities. Reddit is already the fastest growing property out of all of them. And I think we might still be underestimating Reddit's prowess, their potential. And when you think of just X's, they're contribute because I do think our forecast is very accurate for X. You know, we're saying by 2026, CAGR for X5 year CAGR will be negative 16% while Reddit's will be 33%. So a lot of this has to do from Reddit, but partly of course from, you know, the demise of X's ad business. So Reddit, a lot of positivity there, a lot of growth. They know who they are, they're leaning heavily into AI search to expand their reach and clearly I'm extremely bullish on their pot.

[Bill Fisher]

Another very bold one. Well done Oscar. Thanks for that. And finally Zach, what's your stake in the ground?

[Zach Goldner]

Well, first off, I am the forecaster that works on our US social networks, so I feel pretty attacked at the moment by both Oscar and Ethan. So I will prevail. I will defend myself here in a little bit. But in the meanwhile, my bold take is for Argentina to be the fastest growing Latin American economy in the latter half of the decade. So I want to give go over a little bit of a geopolitics lesson for those who might be unaware, but Argentina at the moment has President Javier Milei, who's a former political commentator, self proclaimed narco capitalist, is leading one of the boldest economic overhauls in the country's history. For those that may not have heard, Argentina's inflation has been sky high for many years. Last year it reached 300% year over year. So in the US or in Europe when we were very upset with high single digit rates of inflation, it's something that Argentina has gone through for years. In 2024, Argentina, according to our forecast, was the worst performing retail sales country and one of two to experience E commerce declines. The country is dominated by one player, Mercado Libre, who owns 2/3 of the country's E commerce. There is almost no cross border sales, so the economy is very locked. International buyers don't want to invest, but that's something that Javier Milei is trying to change. So what's going on at the moment? They're slashing government spending, deregulating industry, and controversially they're dollarized in the economy. So some of these moves have already brought relief, but the country now has 50% of its people in poverty. So whether you love him, hate them or never even heard about this president beforehand, they're taking drastic measures to try to change around the situation. This year in 2025 is going to be another round of elections. They go his way. I think we're going to see Argentina's third largest Latin American market release its full economic potential. And there will be a recovery in 2025 and in the latter half of the decade as more foreign investors rush Argentina. I think we're going to see it as the fastest growing Latin American economy and one of the strongest in the world.

[Bill Fisher]

Awesome. Thank you, Zach. Three very interesting predictions and we'll keep them all in mind as we move into our next segment, what we call the round table. Okay. We're going to dwell real briefly on these future predictions before we then look at forecast ghost past and present. So let's just discuss Ethan's bold claim. TikTok definitely being banned. Is it? I mean, it is very bold. I'm pretty sure. I saw Donald Trump recently talking about how he has quite a soft spot for TikTok, certainly helped him in his election campaign and he's met with the TikTok CEO, I believe as well. You guys don't believe Ethan, right?

[Ethan Kramer]

No, I mean, I don't think he has reason to spend the political capital rescuing this Chinese subsidiary unless he gets something pretty significant in return. And it's hard for me to see what that might be. And on the flip side, a sale of TikTok to US interests, which is the ultimate goal for the Trump folks and really everyone in the U.S. the people who wrote the law, is totally untenable. There's absolutely no reason to think that the Chinese government would ever authorize such a sale. And to me, this leaves a situation where the easiest and most likely outcome is to not really do much of anything and just let the ball roll. And right now, when the ball rolls, we're going to have no TikTok.

[Zach Goldner]

Ethan, I'll tell you the reason right now why China just won't get rid of TikTok and why they would fight to at least make something of it. TikTok could sell for upwards of a hundred billion dollars. That's a lot of moolah. Right now it's the third largest social network in the US it's got growing momentum. There are a lot of people whose jobs are line. There is a lot of politics at stake here for Donald Trump. He's given his word even though he's flip flopped on it beforehand. But there's a lot of jobs, a lot of money invested in TikTok. So I don't think it's just going to go poof as of January 19th. I think it's something.

[Ethan Kramer]

But why would the Chinese leaders care about that? That's all American stuff. So if you're sitting in Beijing. And the company is ByteDance, and it's $100 billion for ByteDance's owners and investors, not the Chinese government. That's not their money, it's not their jobs, it's not their advertising income. It's really nothing. The big winners would be U.S. investors. I don't see any reason that the Chinese government should bail out a bunch of US Investors or to give the, the US this massive asset. They just wouldn't do it.

[Oscar Orozco]

And I don't think it'll, I don't think it'll come to that. But, you know, to another point, I'm in support here of what Zach's saying as well is, you know, Donald Trump is a populist. And we've seen from, you know, a pretty recent Pew study that consumers here in the US who used to support the ban back In March of 2023, it was 50% of them, and that's gone down, according to this newest study, to 32%. So. And a lot of Americans, you know, simply just are uncertain about whether it'll happen or whether it's needed at this point, which was not necessarily the case. So much so the security concerns behind it are, you know, just not as important to American consumers at the moment. So I think that plays a huge part in it. And so I think not just from that, but the pressure he's feeling from his own soon to be cabinet. You know, Donald Trump is going to do its best to keep TikTok functioning here, which is good for the economy.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah. I mean, there's no way he's feeling pressure from his cabinet to rescue TikTok. This is like 9 millionth on their list of priorities.

[Oscar Orozco]

Guess we'll see.

[Ethan Kramer]

We'll see. There's my bold Weaver bold take. The bold take of Reddit doing well is not so bold. We know that's going to happen.

[Zach Goldner]

One other thing though, to mention why Red should be bullish, especially from an international standpoint, is that as of halfway into the year, international users just make up 50% of Reddit's users, but only 19% of its revenues. So Reddit is really pushing forward translation models from French, Spanish, German and Portuguese. And so they're going to be rolling out machine learning translation to 35 new countries. Could be a really big boom to engagement, which could lead to dollars. So I don't disagree here with Oscar's take.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah, I don't either. The idea that Reddit is going to do well is a solid take. I think a more interesting take would be to decide what you think is going to happen with X, the idea, is it going to continue to go down? Is it sort of righting the ship? Is it going to make a comeback? I don't know. It's almost a bold take to say that it will continue to fail because at this point it seems like it is not failing as much as maybe some thought.

[Zach Goldner]

I'll get into that here in just a moment.

[Oscar Orozco]

Yeah, I was going to mention that, Zach, but I think some of the we can get into that. I think some of the bold piece of this I mentioned in my kind of kickoff comment was, you know, Reddit right now is the fastest growing digital ad platform globally. I mean, we're talking growing faster than ByteDance, than Kuaishou, than, you know, the metas, the Pinterest, Amazons, which is crazy if you think about it. And I'm thinking that we might be underestimating where it will go. And so number one, across the board and to your comment on X, it's tricky. It's kind of like the TikTok story as well. But I still think that a lot of the competition, right, we're talking blue sky, there's so much momentum there. And what meta's doing, what we're seeing with engagement, I think some of that is coming from Twitter losing not just its user share a bit, but again that engagement, which speaks to the daily active use, the frequency of use. So I think, Zach, you nailed it. I think these declines that you factored in up to 2026, I think they're fairly accurate. And that's part of the reason here why Reddit will continue to gain on Twitter on X.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay, well, let's concentrate on X because I want to move things along now and look at forecast ghosts of past and present. So I want to look at some of the forecast predictions we made in the past and see where we're at now, whether our predictions have been hot or not. And I'm going to credit Oscar with that phraseology and incredible. And Zach, you had prediction or a, a comment on the predictions we made about X last year? What have you got on that?

[Zach Goldner]

Yeah, I don't think our Twitter projection panned out. My take here is the Twitter death spiral that never happened. So when Elon Musk took over at X, a lot of us at our company and honestly across the industry that we're watching Titanic Part 2.0 or death spiral in real time. And after the first wave of users bailed, we thought the platform would enter into a vicious cycle of fewer users Less engagement and less ad dollars. So in the year following is takeover, worldwide ad revenues plummeted for the platform. They have since more than halved since the takeover. And that was a huge, massive blow for a platform that was once the fourth largest in terms of advertising dollars of all our US socials back in 2021. So from the ad dollar perspective, we were right. What we weren't so right about was engagement on the platform. Three years after the takeover, the user base hasn't completely been X. Early predictions were that declines would accelerate over time, but here we are a few years after the takeover and the ship didn't sink. But it's more of a slow leak. And year over year we're just seeing declines of 1 or 2% year over year versus us expecting 5% or more. So people are still on it. And the reason for that slower exodus is what both Oscar and Ethan mentioned. But X still holds a unique place for public discourse. It's where news breaks, conversations happen, and probably the best social platform for live events. That doesn't mean X is going to have smooth sailing moving forward. Blue sky and Threads have potential, but they're still kind of in the early stages of functionality and user loyalty. And finally, full disclosure. While I've left X and rejoined and left once again, every time I go back to the app, there's a reason for me to leave. But with me aside, Platform does have sticking power to a lot of its user base. It'll be interesting to see that in the Trump presidency. If he tweets more, I think you're going to have even more engagement on the platform in the years to come.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah, so revenue plummeted. That disaster was true. But the user exodus just hasn't really panned out. Although it hasn't been good either. It just hasn't been nearly as bad as we thought.

[Oscar Orozco]

Yeah, as I mentioned, I think on the engagement side, maybe it's a little bit in the middle between those two, but it hasn't been that great. Don't forget 2024 was a huge events driven year. Right. We're talking the Olympics and politically speaking here in the U.S. but the global scale of that does impact engagement. I am expecting 2025 to be a lot softer coming off the heels of some of this slightly, you can call it artificial growth that we saw this year.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah. And Threads seems to be doing well and Blue sky seems to be doing well. Right. And that was not as much a factor a year and a half ago.

[Bill Fisher]

We may revisit X in the recap. Stats quiz. So let's end that conversation there. Let's have one of your suggestions now, Ethan, for a forecast where we perhaps were slightly over optimistic with Amazon. Right.

[Ethan Kramer]

This is a flip sort of compared to what Zach was saying because this is one where we were too optimistic. We expected better than what turned out. And this is sort of interesting on a global scale, Amazon's advertising revenue, I'm sure everyone listening has heard a lot about retail media ad spending. Retail media is the buzzword of the year. Amazon had been doing just unbelievably well. It still is. I'm not going to reveal some secret thing that Amazon's ad business has collapsed. However, it underperformed our expectations. Their retail media revenue that they had been drawing in had been growing well over 20%. Actually it was growing over 50% a few years ago, growing well over 20% and we had predicted continued acceleration. We had growth 26, 27% range is what we thought for 2024. Now as of our latest estimate, it's actually down at 99. So coming in under 20% now, that's still a big number. I'm not here to shake the world and say that anything crazy has happened, but that is a signal that perhaps the retail media ad spending story that has dominated our consciousness for the last couple of years is starting to get ready to normalize a little bit and hit growth levels that are a little bit more like everything else and not blow the roof off of everything all the time. We've got Amazon ad revenue worldwide growing at 99 instead of in the high 20s like we thought. That's a little bit of a miss.

[Oscar Orozco]

Yeah, I would agree. It's not like you said, it's not just an Amazon story. I think it's that retail media story overall. But there's been a lot more competition. A lot of these retailers are building out their ad businesses. You know, we've seen a lot more growth from even like the Instacarts and Walmart globally, you know, which is, you know, not helping Amazon's bottom line. But you know, overall it is a retail media story too as I mentioned and it speaks to just the power of the duopoly of just traditional search of the social and which Zach can speak to more and what we've already talked to, but how power Meta's ad products are and how some of these, the Tiktoks or Reddits of the world are also helping to keep their market share and maybe slow down Amazon's gains there. So yeah, very interesting story. Still massive Growth, but not what we expected. Yeah, a little bit slower.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah. And you referenced Meta there. That's another one that I brought as a minor miss on our part. And that was reversed. They overperformed. Right. So Meta grabbed all over the world. Meta did better than we thought. And to your point, they're absorbing a little bit more of the incremental ad revenue increases that maybe we thought were going to end up with Amazon.

[Bill Fisher]

That should be their strap line. Meta did better.

[Zach Goldner]

People thought that Facebook was really going to collapse, that it lost its young demographic. And I think what we saw here in 2024 is that they made a pitch back to its young users. And sure they might not be spending more time on that of Facebook than that TikTok, but there are a lot of features that keep people coming back to Facebook like Marketplace, like connecting with their friends, like seeing events. Meta had really done a great job and their video was also a huge driver. And their growth in this last year, where it makes up, I want to say it'll make up 60% of Meta's ad revenues in 2025. So really strong driver for why Meta outperformed this last year and will continue to be a strong player.

[Oscar Orozco]

And a quick comment, let's keep this in mind. Context is everything. We still believe globally that retail media will make up a quarter of all digital ad spending in four years time. So in 2028. So still huge numbers, but maybe not quite what we thought.

[Ethan Kramer]

Yeah, it's not going away.

[Zach Goldner]

Yeah.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay, awesome. I'm gonna move the conversation on because it is time for my recap stats quiz. This is where we recap today's theme with a few related stats questions. There's still no prize, I'm afraid. There are just three questions. They're multiple choice. I'm going to ask you to message me anonymously so there's no room for influence. And honestly, unless you've got some kind of photographic memory, this is going to be based on pure guesswork. Okay. I say that we're going to begin with what I think is an easy opener, but it's only easy if you know the answer, right? So let's see. We had a very exciting development at Emarketer this past year. We extended our country specific forecasting out to. And you guys can help me here. An extra 28. 30 countries, was it? Yeah, I can't remember the exact number, but a sizable number just about doubled.

[Oscar Orozco]

Yeah, I was going to say probably 30. 30.

[Bill Fisher]

Yeah, around that. Anyway, this was as part of a very smart initiative in our Modeling. The question is which of these European, Western European countries do we still not break out individually? So they're still rolled into our other Western Europe number. So we have A, Greece, B, Iceland, or C, Ireland. Now, it would be good if you could slack me separately so that other people don't see.

[Ethan Kramer]

I realize that I sent the answer to everyone.

[Oscar Orozco]

Yeah, I didn't know the answer, so it's fine.

[Bill Fisher]

So what's your guess, Oscar? You can just say what your guess.

[Oscar Orozco]

A, B or C. I would have said Ireland.

[Bill Fisher]

Okay. And if you had said Ireland, as you did, you would have been incorrect. I'm sorry, Oscar, Greece is also incorrect. The correct answer is Iceland. So well done to Ethan and Zach, you are in the lead so far. Other countries, by the way, we've added this year include Denmark, Portugal, Switzerland, as well as a bunch of Central and Eastern European countries like the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. Really fantastic additions to our forecasting roster. Really, really good work, you guys. Okay, question two. Things become a little bit harder here, I think. And we've alluded to X having had a difficult year. Maybe not as difficult as we predicted, but still difficult. In every country where we track user numbers, they have been down over the previous year. That was our 2024 figures, except in one country. So there was an increase in users in one country. Which one? And your options are A, France, B, Japan OR C, the U.S. we're all.

[Ethan Kramer]

Going to get this one.

[Zach Goldner]

Remember Ethan?

[Oscar Orozco]

I remember this one.

[Ethan Kramer]

You shouldn't.

[Zach Goldner]

Don't share the answer to everyone.

[Ethan Kramer]

He's dealing with three forecasters. You shouldn't have given us a multiple choice. You should have seen if they could come up with it without the multiple choice. Now we're just going to all get it. We're all going to get it.

[Bill Fisher]

People usually complain that this quiz is too hard, so I'm giving you guys.

[Zach Goldner]

Well, you're talking to a bunch of forecasters right now.

[Oscar Orozco]

Giving me too much credit. I didn't get the last, last one. Ray, come on.

[Bill Fisher]

And you are all correct. Of course it was Japan. What was the growth rate?

[Ethan Kramer]

Probably small, 3%.

[Zach Goldner]

I just assume Japan's coming off of a very slow or small base and that's the reason why it's growing. It's kind of an anomaly between our countries.

[Ethan Kramer]

No, I don't think that's it. I think X or Twitter has been extremely popular there and they don't have any reason to bail on it because of Elon Musk, because they don't care about that.

[Bill Fisher]

Isn't that why yes, and also, also I think. And again, this is not absolute, but I believe that a lot of the user accounts in Japan are anonymized. Japanese are very polite. Twitter with an anonymous handle allows them to say things they might not otherwise say. So it's remain incredibly popular.

[Ethan Kramer]

Saucy.

[Bill Fisher]

That's another reason. Anyway, growth of just 1.1%. France almost growth, a decline of just 0.6%. The US had the fastest decline of 4.5%. Okay, so it's still Ethan and Zach in front, but all to play for in the last question. And our final question. YouTube continues to dominate digital video viewing in most regions around the world. In Asia Pacific, of course, the china ban means YouTube viewers account for less than half of total digital video viewers. But in all other regions, that proportion is in the high 80s or low 90s. But which region tops the rankings for YouTube penetration as a proportion of total digital video viewers? Region. We're talking here. Is it A, Central and Eastern Europe, B, Latin America, or C, the Middle east and Africa?

[Ethan Kramer]

All right, that's a good one. Yeah.

[Oscar Orozco]

This one's tie this up. This is more of a guess, three way tie. Let's go.

[Bill Fisher]

The answers are in.

[Oscar Orozco]

I'm nervous. Bill, please let us know.

[Ethan Kramer]

Do we know what the prize is? Is it nothing like normal?

[Bill Fisher]

Still no prize.

[Oscar Orozco]

Maybe you get another bragging rights.

[Bill Fisher]

If you had said the Middle east and Africa, which none of you said Middle east and Africa, that would have been incorrect. Besides Asia Pacific, that has the lowest penetration rate, 87 or thereabouts. Latin America is next on the list after Middle east and Africa. 91. But Central and Eastern Europe tops the list. 94. North America and Western Europe are sandwiched in between them at around 91.92percent for each of those.

[Ethan Kramer]

I can see by Zach's smug look that he got it.

[Oscar Orozco]

He got. Yeah, like truly just lucky. Come on.

[Bill Fisher]

We do have a winner. And it is Zach. Well done.

[Oscar Orozco]

All right. And I'm excited.

[Zach Goldner]

I want to shout out my mom, dad, happy holidays, Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas. It's a true honor.

[Ethan Kramer]

It's a thank you.

[Oscar Orozco]

Listen, first time you see this in anything. Just one of the.

[Bill Fisher]

I usually have a tiebreaker. Do you want it? It's not that interesting.

[Zach Goldner]

Let's hear it.

[Bill Fisher]

Let's hear it. Okay. India is the most underpenetrated country that we carry a forecast for in terms of Internet users as a percentage of the total population. What percentage are we talking? So this is just the number.

[Zach Goldner]

This is Internet user penetration. India.

[Bill Fisher]

Correct as a proportion of the total population.

[Ethan Kramer]

Half. I don't know.

[Bill Fisher]

Ethan, you win half. 50. Exactly.

[Ethan Kramer]

Wait, I'm right.

[Bill Fisher]

You're right. It's 50.

[Oscar Orozco]

Oh, I thought it was much less.

[Zach Goldner]

Wow.

[Bill Fisher]

And Zach came in at 55. Just after the bell, but very close. But, Ethan, I'll. I'll give you the bonus win. So there you go. We can end. We can end today. Well, you guys are all winners, but it's always good to end the show with an official winner, and that is this week. Zach, well done, Zach. And thanks for speaking with us today.

[Zach Goldner]

Appreciate it. Bill, thanks for having me on.

[Bill Fisher]

Ethan, well done for the bonus win. And again, thank you for joining the conversation.

[Ethan Kramer]

Happy holidays and happy New Year to you and everyone.

[Bill Fisher]

And Oscar, great to have you on the show Again, thanks for all your insights.

[Oscar Orozco]

This was a lot of fun. Bill, thanks so much. Happy holidays, everybody.

[Bill Fisher]

And thanks to all of you for listening in today to around the World and Emaar, a podcast made possible by Live Ramp, the last ever around the world iteration of behind the Numbers. Though we will be continuing to provide global coverage in a new revamped roster for 2025. Tune in tomorrow for the last daily show of the year, hosted by Marcus, and we'll be back in 2025. As I mentioned, with this new roster, if you want to ask us any questions, you can still do that by emailing us atpodcast, mark marketer.com this is behind the Numbers around the World signing off. I predict you will continue to get stellar international podcast content on behind the numbers in 2025. Bye for now.