Behind the Numbers: Forecasting Trends for 2025—Digital Pay-TV Petering Out and Why Livestream Shopping is (and Isn't) Taking Off

Podcast Episode Summary – January 24, 2025

Introduction

In the January 24, 2025 episode of Behind the Numbers, EMARKETER's daily podcast dedicated to unraveling the complexities of digital media, host Marcus engages with senior director of forecasting Oscar Orozco and principal forecasting writer Ethan Kramer to delve into two pivotal trends shaping the marketing landscape: the decline of digital pay-TV and the nuanced rise of livestream shopping. This episode provides an insightful analysis of these trends, exploring their current trajectories, underlying causes, and future implications for marketers, retailers, and advertisers.

Round One: Signature Take

Ethan Kramer on the Decline of Digital Pay-TV

Ethan Kramer kicks off the discussion by addressing the ongoing decline of traditional and digital pay-TV. Highlighting a significant shift in consumer behavior, Kramer explains that the era of cable TV is waning, citing a notable transition from cord-cutters to "cord-nevers"—consumers who have entirely bypassed pay-TV subscriptions.

“At a certain point, the number of cord cutters and cord nevers exceeded those still subscribing to cable TV,” Kramer states ([03:55]). This pivotal moment underscored that despite the growing popularity of digital alternatives like YouTube TV, Hulu with Live TV, and Fubo, the overall landscape was still dominated by pay-TV subscriptions. However, Kramer forecasts that the surge in digital pay-TV is losing momentum due to escalating costs and lack of sustainable growth, leading to a projected decline where by 2025, the majority of American households will no longer subscribe to any form of pay-TV.

Oscar Orozco counters with optimism about livestream shopping, asserting its increasing popularity despite being on the fringes of mainstream consumer habits. He cites that over 40 million Americans have already engaged in livestream shopping as of last year, with projections rising to 60 million within three years ([03:17]). Orozco emphasizes the potential for livestream e-commerce to diversify beyond apparel and beauty products, envisioning growth across various categories fueled by platform advancements and influencer partnerships.

Round Two: How It Would Technically Play Out

Ethan Kramer on the Practical Implications of Pay-TV Decline

Expanding on his initial assertion, Kramer provides a detailed projection: by 2025, approximately 65 million households in the United States will maintain access to linear pay-TV channels, while 70 million households will forego any pay-TV subscriptions ([13:19]). He discusses the challenges faced by digital pay-TV providers, including rising subscription costs—YouTube TV, for instance, has seen its price escalate from $35 in 2017 to $83 in 2025—and the lack of sustainable growth. Kramer points to industry consolidation, such as Disney's acquisition of a majority stake in Fubo and the folding of Hulu with Live TV into Fubo, as indicative of the sector's instability ([13:55]).

Furthermore, Kramer highlights the broader impact on the TV industry and advertisers, noting that the diminishing reach of pay-TV limits access to audiences and undermines traditional advertising models. The increasing fragmentation and expense of digital pay-TV services are not only curbing consumer subscriptions but also threatening the long-standing viability of linear TV channels.

Oscar Orozco on the Evolution of Livestream E-Commerce

Orozco delves into the mechanics of livestream e-commerce, emphasizing its rapid growth and the factors driving its adoption. With over 40 million participants last year—a number expected to swell to 60 million by 2026—livestream shopping is positioned as a significant trend within the broader scope of social commerce ([07:31]). He attributes this growth to increased platform support, particularly from influencers and brands that create engaging, interactive shopping experiences.

Orozco underscores the importance of platforms like Pinterest, which are enhancing their shoppable media capabilities, and notes that retailers are increasingly partnering with third-party infrastructure providers to facilitate livestream events. This collaboration is crucial for maintaining consistency and scalability, allowing livestream shopping to expand beyond occasional events and become a more integral part of the consumer shopping journey ([12:30]).

However, Orozco acknowledges the challenges in replicating China's highly developed livestream e-commerce ecosystem in the United States. He points out that the success in China is driven by continuous, high-frequency livestream events that keep consumers engaged, a model that may not be economically feasible in the U.S. market. Despite these hurdles, he remains optimistic about the potential for growth through strategic partnerships and platform innovations.

Round Three: Show Stopping Arguments

Ethan Kramer's Closing Argument

Ethan Kramer asserts the inevitability of digital pay-TV's decline, framing it as an unstoppable trend driven by shifting consumer preferences and unsustainable business models. “TV's been dying for ages. I came on. I'm riding the most obvious wave,” Kramer declares ([21:29]). He envisions a future where linear TV becomes a niche medium, barely recognizable from its past incarnation, and emphasizes that the integration of digital pay-TV into existing streaming services is insufficient to reverse its downward trajectory.

Oscar Orozco's Closing Argument

Conversely, Oscar Orozco emphasizes the growing awareness and adoption of livestream shopping, particularly among younger demographics like Gen Z and the emerging Gen Alpha. “Awareness is increasing,” he states ([23:09]). Orozco argues that as these younger generations mature and gain spending power, they will drive the continued adoption and normalization of livestream e-commerce. He highlights the adaptability of platforms and the diversification of product categories as key factors that will sustain and propel the growth of livestream shopping.

Conclusion

The episode culminates with a balanced acknowledgment of both trends. While Ethan Kramer convincingly outlines the structural and economic factors leading to the decline of digital pay-TV, Oscar Orozco presents a compelling case for the resilience and potential of livestream e-commerce. Both forecasts are deemed equally robust by the hosts, Marcus, who humorously declares Ethan the "star taker" despite recognizing the strength of Orozco's arguments.

As digital media continues to evolve, the insights from this episode underscore the necessity for marketers and advertisers to adapt to the diminishing relevance of traditional and digital pay-TV while capitalizing on the burgeoning opportunities presented by livestream shopping. The contrasting trajectories of these trends highlight the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the digital landscape, emphasizing the importance of agile and forward-thinking strategies in the ever-changing world of digital media.

Notable Quotes

• Oscar Orozco ([00:31]): "Hello, everybody. Hello, listeners. Happy New Year. By the way, I don't know how much longer."

• Ethan Kramer ([03:55]): “The majority of America does not have pay TV. So if you add up the digital people and the traditional people, they do not come to the same total as the amount of people that just have nothing or no pay TV.”

• Oscar Orozco ([03:17]): “Live streaming E commerce is just something that is there, it's growing. We're going to hear a lot more about it and I think, you know, it's something we need to talk more about.”

• Ethan Kramer ([21:29]): “My prediction is that within five years, linear TV is basically going to be a niche medium. And right now we're talking about the death of it. But we haven't actually gotten to a point where literally no one you talk to will have seen that thing that was on tv.”

• Oscar Orozco ([23:09]): “I expect that in the next three to five years, not only will awareness increase frequency of use but also Gen Alpha is going to carry this into adulthood.”

Final Thoughts

This episode of Behind the Numbers provides a thorough examination of two significant trends poised to reshape the digital media landscape by 2025. The decline of digital pay-TV highlights the shifting consumption patterns and the challenges faced by traditional and digital streaming services in sustaining growth. Meanwhile, the rise of livestream shopping presents a promising avenue for engagement and sales, particularly among younger demographics, despite existing challenges in scaling and replicating international successes.

Marketers, retailers, and advertisers stand to benefit from understanding these trends, adapting their strategies to leverage the opportunities presented by livestream e-commerce, and preparing for the continued transformation of media consumption habits as digital pay-TV fades into obsolescence.

For more in-depth analysis and additional forecasting trends, listeners are encouraged to visit eMarketer.com and explore the comprehensive reports available to subscribers.