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Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Behind the Numbers Special Edition: Creator Economy Trends 2025 Keynote
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- [00:00]
Marcus Johnson
Did you know 70% of CMOs are now responsible for steering their company's AI initiatives? That's a lot of them. Find out what it takes to be a successful CMO in this new AI powered era of marketing. Download their playbook Driving Growth in the AI era, exclusively from Zeta Global. Link is in the show. Notes welcome to a special edition of the E Marketer podcast behind the Numbers made possible by Zeta Global. Welcome to Global. I'm Marcus Johnson and today we have a special episode for you featuring key insights from the eMarketer Summit creator Economy Trends 2025 that we held on February 7th. In today's show, Vice President and Principal Analyst Jasmine Emberg and Principal Analyst Sarah Marzano share the keynote presentation from the event. And here they are.
- [00:52]
Jasmine Enberg
Hello everyone. I'm Jasmine Enberg, Vice President and Principal analyst here at eMarketer, and I'm joined today by my colleague Sarah Marzano, Principal Analyst, who is in our New York studio. Hey Sara.
- [01:04]
Sarah Marzano
Hi Jasmine. I'm so excited to be here.
- [01:07]
Jasmine Enberg
We are kicking things off with our keynote Creator economy trends for 2025. Let's dive right in.
- [01:14]
Sarah Marzano
Jasmine, you dubbed 2025 a year of professionalization for the creator economy and influencer marketing. I think it makes sense to begin our conversation by taking a closer look at what exactly you meant by that.
- [01:28]
Jasmine Enberg
So on a high level, what I mean is that the industry is getting serious. Marketers are starting to treat influencer as a need to have rather than a nice to have and a core part of their marketing strategies. We are also seeing more, quote unquote serious industries start to lean into the tactic, whether that's B2B or politics or health care. And then on the creator side of things, we are also seeing many of them get more serious about their businesses, moving from ad hoc to episodic content on social media and also scaling their content beyond social platforms and into channels from CTV to retail.
- [02:10]
Sarah Marzano
And I think it can't go unsaid that all of this is happening as the TikTok ban is threatening to disrupt the landscape. The loss of TikTok or even a change to its operations would be a big blow to many creators and businesses that rely on the app. But it's definitely important to note that despite all of that, it's not going to mean the end of the creator economy.
- [02:30]
Jasmine Enberg
No, definitely not, Sarah. And we will talk a lot more about the implications of the volatility at TikTok in the last session in today's summit. But I would say that the TLDR is that the Power of creators and influencers has now reached a tipping point. And with or without TikTok, they are going to continue to reshape media marketing and commerce in 2025 and beyond. Just for a little bit of context, TikTok represents less than a tenth of influencer marketing spending in the US and only about 5% of total digital ad spending worldwide. And so I think that makes it really safe to say that the creator economy much bigger than just TikTok.
- [03:14]
Sarah Marzano
Thanks. I. I think that really puts things into perspective. So let's start with influencer marketing, because this idea of professionalization is really manifesting in two primary ways. First, we're seeing marketers get more sophisticated about things like influencer identification. And second, we're starting to see them hold influencer marketing to higher measurement standards.
- [03:36]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, that's absolutely right. I think as the pool of creators and influencers has expanded significantly over the past couple of years, marketers are now in a position where they have the luxury of choice in terms of who to work with. But I think it has also made it a lot more difficult for brands to sort through and determine who is the right partner for them. And that's especially true as consumers have become more discerning about sponsored content. And historically, follower counts have been the primary way that markets marketers both classify and identify influencers to work with. The conventional wisdom that we've all heard, of course, is that micro and nano influencers drive sales, while larger influencers are great for brand awareness and brand equity, but not always really adept at driving bottom of funnel goals. And there is certainly some truth to that. But it is also true that follower counts are not always an accurate predictor of business outcomes for brands, especially now that we're in this era of algorithm feeds where content can be seen by anyone, not just the people who follow a specific creator or influencer, and where you have these massive creators who are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in sales of their own products. And I think we've reached a point now where marketers are really catching onto this. And there's plenty of research to show that brands are starting to deprioritize follower counts and other vanity metrics when it comes to identifying influencers and using more sophisticated tactics and metrics that actually matter. Things like engagement rates, audience demographics, and campaign fit. This has a ton of implications for creator campaigns, but I want to point out that it's also really great news for the long tail of creators, especially those that have medium sized audiences or are in hyper specific niches. They probably had quite a lot of trouble in 2024 scoring high profile brand deals because we saw marketers really prioritizing the biggest creators, smallest creators, as well as those who they were already in long term relationships with and kind of ignoring this vast middle class of creators. I think as a result of this sophistication though, we're going to see a rise in niche creators, including local creators and the resurgence of mid tier creators in 2025.
- [06:06]
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, that makes me think of something from your Creator Economy trends to watch report that really stuck with me. In the report you wrote that the million follower era is ending. So it feels like 2025 is positioned to be the year to finally address the lag that can occur between the way the metrics that marketers become comfortable leaning on in order to measure performance versus real evolutions in how content and platforms actually operate. In your report you write that brands will put this recognition into practice and it will inform how they choose creators to work with. So in addition to what some of what you just mentioned like engagement rates, audience demographics, things like creative alignment will really come to the forefront for how they're identifying and choosing those creators.
- [06:50]
Jasmine Enberg
Okay, I will admit that that was a little bit of a cheeky tagline because follower counts still do matter to marketers to some degree, but we are seeing a shift in how again they are identifying influencers and now they have more tools and resources at their disposal to really put this into practice. I'd say there's understandably still a lot of fear in the creator economy around a but I think when you think about influencer identification specifically, that is one area where AI will have an immediate positive impact for both creators and for brands. I think not only can it help speed up the process of selecting partners, it can really supercharge some of these strategies, especially when it comes to things like brand affinity and alignment. So one of the things I wrote was that AI can help marketers easily identify the context around an organic brand mention on social media. It can also help marketers segment creators into smaller subsets like beauty creators who also post haul videos on TikTok. I think it'll also help marketers take a much more nuanced approach to engagement, looking not just at engagement rate, but the quality of that engagement. They can determine the breadth and depth of engagement on a post as well as audience sentiment toward the content, the brand or the product. And finally, brand safety and suitability is a really important criteria for a lot of brands. And I think AI will help detect any potential concerns really by Being able to quickly and easily vet previous posts and brand collaborations, including whether or not a creator or influencer has recently partnered with a competitor. For example, our colleague Minda Smiley is actually leading a session on how to put all of this into practice later today.
- [08:44]
Sarah Marzano
I'd imagine finding the right partners up front is also going to be something that could lead to more successful partnerships in the long term and that that will help marketers justify increasing their budgets on influencer marketing. For context, we expect influencer marketing in the US to raise by 14% this year and it's on track to surpass 10 billion in 2026. That's a big number. And it doesn't include any spending outside of social media or paid media amplification, which we know is a common practice among marketers.
- [09:14]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, and Sarah, I would say one of the reasons that paid media amplification has become so popular among brands speaks to the measurement issue that you brought up earlier. I'd say that by and large, lagging measurement still is the single biggest threat to influencer marketing budgets and what is holding roughly 20% of U.S. marketers back from influencer marketing. According to our estimates, by repurposing creator content as a paid ad, marketers can more easily track and compare the performance of their creator campaigns. And it can also help them, of course, boost that content to potentially wider audiences and can eliminate the need for new ad creative, which ultimately makes their influencer dollars work harder. If you tuned into our Creator Economy Summit last July, I talked a lot about this actually, because I think one of the big misconceptions among creators and a lot of industry folk is that brand safety is what marketers are referring to when they talk about the risk in influencer marketing. And it's certainly part of it, especially for brands that are in highly regul industries. But I do think we've reached a point now where it's more about the risk of investing or investing more money into a tactic that is harder to measure than, quote, unquote, traditional digital media. And that makes sense, right? I mean, there hasn't been a standardized and reliable measurement framework for influencer marketing. And that can make a really hard story to tell to a CFO at a time when we have CMC CMOs under increasing pressure to show real business results. And I'd also add that one of the reasons that measurement hasn't kept up is really a lack of scale. But again, we're at a point now where there's just so much more data, so much more information, and I imagine that we'll see a lot of new innovations in the space this year, especially as more brands incorporate creators or their content into paid media campaigns outside of social media. Again, whether that's CTV or retail.
- [11:18]
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, I think that tees up perfectly to dive into commerce. So we of course keep a close eye on retail media ad spending, and there are some developments in that space that I think stand to have a really significant impact on the creator economy and social commerce more broadly. So we recently published an update to our retail media forecast. And while we're still expecting the spending on retail media to grow at a rapid clip, it's on track to reach nearly 100 billion in ad spend by 2020. Our forecast was revised downward slightly following more subdued quarterly growth from Amazon and Walmart. And for anyone in our audience who doesn't live and breathe retail media, I'll Note that these two powerhouses make up more than 80% of all spending on retail media. So if we read between the lines, the softening of growth sort of signals the upper limit of on site ad monetization, where the majority of retail media ad revenue still comes from. What we can expect next is an even more energetic push by the most sophisticated retail media networks to broaden their scope by moving off site and up the purchase funnel, which I think will kick off an exciting wave of innovations. And then further fueling that momentum is the fact that in order to drive incremental growth, retail media networks are really recognizing the need to tap into their advertisers national and brand budgets. Enter social media, which I think is perfectly positioned to address this inflection point.
- [12:47]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, absolutely. And this was one of the trends that I wrote about in the creator economy. Trends to report, trends to watch, report. Excuse me. As well. Which is really this convergence that we're seeing of retail media and the creator economy. And according to a recent report by LTK, 9 in 10 US marketers plan to promote their creator partnerships via retail media networks in 2025. And I think this is because we know that shopping has become more social. And as retailers are really looking to drive that incremental growth, creators really are emerging as an important source of creative and a connection to new shoppers that are discovering and buying products in different ways. I would say it's really a win win for influencer marketing and for retail media. I'd say brands want more creative ways to spend their retail dollars than just product search ads. So I like to think of it as kind of a glow up for retail media. And then marketers on the influencer side just get more accountability for their dollars and a chance to, to scale their influencer programs.
- [13:52]
Sarah Marzano
Yeah. So Jasmine, for me, what this really represents is that we're at this crucial tipping point, right. It's not just that retailers are making social ad inventory available through their retail media programs, but also there's meaningful demand coming from the marketers. And I think this really signals the way that retail media's potential has grown beyond the channel focused on site executions. And we're moving towards this future where there's a more holistic recognition of the power and potential of retail media. Now, ideally, retail media can unlock a level of data that enables marketers who are accustomed to working on social media to really finally tilt those scales away from art and towards science. And, and that would be thanks to the ability to incorporate things like outcome based metrics where they weren't historically available. But one thing that remains to be seen is whether retailers can effectively tap into budget that are typically spent by the brand directly with the social platform or directly with the creators. And it's important to emphasize that this is still a developing ecosystem. Retail media networks are moving out of their comfort zones and they're needing to find ways to partner with social platforms who aren't exactly known for openly sharing their data. In order for retail media networks to position themselves to help deliver on the promise of better measurement, formal integrations and solutions like data clean rooms are going to be a crucial component. So right now we're in this sort of nascent, fragmented landscape. Every retail media network is at a different level of sophistication and every social platform offers a different way of partnering.
- [15:27]
Jasmine Enberg
Right. It is all still very new and nascent. But I think the other thing that it does indicate is that the silos around influencer marketing are starting to finally break down. And that does bring with it a whole host of new challenges like how to integrate creators into broader marketing and commerce strategies. And we're actually starting to see some companies come up with really creative solutions like bringing creators in house to develop campaigns and content. I'm actually planning to write a report on this later in Q1. I know we've only got a couple of minutes left, so I wanted to pivot to talking about creator professionalization from the media angle as well. Because we are now in this moment where every social platform is a video and more specifically a short video platform. Everyone from LinkedIn to Blue sky has rolled out a short video feed. And then we've also seen short video services, from reels to shorts to spotlight either extend their video lengths, or combine short, long and live content into one feed. And this shift makes sense. 60% of the time that US social media users spend on social platforms is now dedicated to video, according to our estimates. And creators, of course, have been a massive driver of this shift in the midst of all the volatility that we've seen at TikTok. We've seen meta, for example, offer major cash incentives to TikTok creators to post on reels. And that, to me, just indicates how important creators are for driving engagement on their platforms, especially when it comes to video.
- [17:02]
Sarah Marzano
Yeah. Your report also points out two major milestones in 2025 that I think help illustrate the importance of social video and these huge shifts in viewing behaviors. So this year, we predict that the number of social network users in the US will surpass linear TV viewers for the first time, following in the footsteps of YouTube, which overtook linear TV back in 2023. We also predict that advertisers are set to spend $10 billion more on social video ads than they do on linear tv, which is a massive shift in spending happening.
- [17:38]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, advertisers have finally fully committed to social video. And there's a lot of different reasons for this, including of course, consumer popularity, but also more precise targeting capability, targeting capabilities, and lower costs associated with social video ads. And I will admit that there's plenty of non creator video on social platforms, but there's also no denying that creators really have helped help spur the shift, even just by the halo effect of being on social media. There's also evidence now to suggest that advertisers are also shifting budget out of linear TV directly into creators. So according to data from Linkia from last year, close to half of US enterprise marketers funded their increased investments in influencer marketing by moving budget from traditional TV and radio.
- [18:33]
Sarah Marzano
Another fascinating inflection point we're seeing is that as advertisers are committing to social video, we're also starting to see creators move off of social media and into other channels. So just last week, Max announced a new reality series with Logan Paul. Mr. Beast Games is streaming on Amazon, and the YouTube channel Mythical now has a free channel on Samsung TV. And then there's also podcast creators who we know played a massive role in the election last year and who are also building big media businesses. I know Alex Cooper just announced a new show on YouTube shorts through her Unwell network, right.
- [19:11]
Jasmine Enberg
And I think what connects, or I know what connects all of the creators that you just mentioned is YouTube. And YouTube has been somewhat of a white space for brands when it comes to influencer marketing, but it really is the driver in these big shifts that we're seeing within media consumption. So this is going to be a mouthful, but according to our latest estimates, there are now more people watching YouTube on a Seat TV than there are people watching any streaming service except for Netflix across any device. And again, there is plenty of non creator content on YouTube, but many of the most popular channels are of course creator led. And those YouTubers are also now developing shows with a repeatable format that makes them more easily transferable to TV and streaming services. This year I do expect that we'll see more Hollywood studios and streaming services go after creators. I wrote about this in our larger Trends to Watch report this year. But you know, the success of Mr. Beast Games, despite or maybe because of all of the controversy around it, has really made Hollywood executives much more open to licensing deals with creators, in part also because it gives them a more budget friendly and audience tested way to bring in new viewers. I imagine a lot of this, if not most of it, will be calls for unscripted content, but I also don't think we're that far away from more scripted creator led content, especially now as we're seeing podcasters use video to create Talk shows on YouTube specifically. All of this of course is going to cause a lot more competition, direct competition I would say, between YouTube and streamers for audiences and revenues. But I also don't think this is a winner takes all scenario. I think instead we're going to see a continued merging of creators and Hollywood with both YouTube and Hollywood streamers taking pages out of each other's playbooks.
- [21:08]
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, I think this is a good moment to mention that if anyone in our audience has questions specifically on YouTube or CTV streaming, our senior analyst and expert Ross Benish will be joining Jeremy and Sarah immediately following our conversation and will be hand on hand to weigh in. So now Jasmine, I want to bring US Back to TikTok. You wrote that the TikTok to TV trajectory will be longer, which makes sense, but we're also seeing the rise of tick tock TV shows and episodic content there. And we've seen TikTok expand its video lengths up to 30 minutes, which it has been encouraging creators to take advantage of, while also pushing more serial pre produced content on its platform.
- [21:50]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, I think in general we are seeing a trend toward predictability in creator content. There's a lot of reasons for this, but I think in some ways going viral is now easier than ever. But the days of true virality are kind of of ending or over as our social media usage has just become more fragmented and more personalized. I mean Sarah, the who's who of my TikTok is probably very different than what you see on your for you page. And creators have also recognized that the path to success from a viral video isn't guaranteed nor is it easy. And I think that that's leading a lot more creators to prioritize building sustainable, transportable audiences. And one way to do that of course is through predictable transport programming. People come back because they know and like what they're getting, like they would on a traditional TV show. That of course has a ripple effect on the brands that these creators work with and opens the door actually to a lot of different types of brand integrations. So we know that long term partnerships really are the holy grail for most creators. And more predictable content gives them almost like I would say even an upfront where they can show advertisers what they've got planned and potentially even get negotiate longer term contracts. It also gives opportunities for creators to build their own products, sometimes in collaboration with brands, because having a format like this is often considered the path to owning ip. And we'll talk a lot more about this in the Creator Content panel after the keynote.
- [23:29]
Sarah Marzano
Thanks Jasmine. It does feel like we're on the precipice of what will be an extremely exciting year for the creative economy. But I'd be remiss if we didn't revisit and kind of summarize some of the challenges that our audience should really keep up top of mind as they reflect on what we've discussed here today.
- [23:45]
Jasmine Enberg
Yeah, so to sum up, I would say that professionalization is a net positive for the creator economy, but it does bring with it new challenges to solve this year. And I think you can boil those down into what should be the top priorities for marketers in 2025. And there's really three of them. First is identifying the right partners, then integrating them effectively and efficiently into marketing strategies, and finally measuring the success of those campaigns. You can do all of these things. I think it'll be much easier for brands to build sustainable and scalable influencer marketing strategies.
- [24:22]
Marcus Johnson
That's all we have time for for today's episode. Thank you so much to Jasmine and Sarah for that key notes. Thanks to the whole editing crew as always, Victoria, John, Lance and Danny Stewart who runs the team and Sophie does our social media. Thanks to everyone for listening in to behind the Numbers and email to video podcast made possible by Zeta Global. Tomorrow, you can tune in to hear us talk about what's next for brand safety.