Behind the Numbers: The Top Trends of 2025 That Marketers Need to Know Now

Podcast Episode Summary – Released January 6, 2025

EMarketer’s daily podcast, Behind the Numbers, delves deep into the dynamic realm of digital media, providing marketers, retailers, and advertisers with the latest insights and trends shaping the industry. In the January 6, 2025 episode titled "The Top Trends of 2025 That Marketers Need to Know Now," hosts Marcus, Evelyn Mitchell Wolf, and Bill Fisher explore pivotal shifts in AI regulation and advertising, presenting a comprehensive analysis of the landscape poised to transform the business environment in the coming year.

1. Introduction to the Episode

Marcus kicks off the episode by setting an engaging tone with a light-hearted “Fact of the Day” segment before transitioning into the core discussion. He introduces the two main trends that will be the focus of the episode:

• Trend 1: Government efforts to curb the power of digital ad giants and protect children online.
• Trend 2: The rise of retail media, social platforms, and AI technologies disrupting traditional search paradigms.

2. Government Regulation: Curbing Big Tech and Protecting Children Online

Evelyn Mitchell Wolf leads the first discussion on the increasing regulatory pressures aimed at major tech companies. She emphasizes the significance of upcoming antitrust actions and new legislation focused on safeguarding minors in the digital sphere.

Antitrust Actions Against Big Tech

At [00:00], Evelyn highlights how big tech firms have historically amassed unchallenged power, but this is changing as regulatory milestones are being achieved in 2024 and 2025. She details the appointments of Gail Slater to the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division and Andrew Ferguson as the new Chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Both figures have expressed strong intentions to limit big tech's dominance:

“Both Slater and Ferguson have been critical of Big Tech in the past. Ferguson said he wants to, quote, 'end Big Tech's vendetta against competition.'” — Evelyn Mitchell Wolf [04:37]

Evelyn explains that the DOJ and FTC are currently handling five antitrust cases against major companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Meta. She anticipates significant developments and potential verdicts in 2025, although many decisions may extend into 2026 and beyond due to appeals.

Protecting Children Online

Shifting focus to the protection of minors, Evelyn outlines the bipartisan legislative efforts in the U.S. aimed at addressing the negative impacts of social media on children’s privacy, mental health, and addiction. She references specific measures, such as:

• U.S. Initiatives: State-level bills and potential federal laws, including social media warning labels as discussed in the podcast.
• EU Developments: Enforcement of the Digital Services Act, targeting platforms like TikTok for practices that may encourage addictive behaviors in younger users.
• UK Regulations: The upcoming enforcement of the Online Safety Act’s child safety provisions in fall 2025.

“Social media and digital platforms are being held accountable for issues that affect children and teens, from privacy to mental health to addiction.” — Evelyn Mitchell Wolf [11:57]

Key Insights:

• Speed of Regulation: Bill Fisher notes the swift actions taken by the EU, using TikTok’s program modifications as a case study.

“It took them 105 days to conclude that investigation. It concluded against TikTok and TikTok removed that program.” — Bill Fisher [13:03]

• Consumer Impact: Marcus shares a compelling study where removing smartphones from students led to significant drops in anxiety and depression, underlining the urgent need for regulatory intervention.

3. The Triumvirate of Retail Media, Social, and AI Undercutting Traditional Search

Bill Fisher takes the lead in discussing how retail media, social platforms, and AI are collectively challenging the traditional search engine model.

Shift in Consumer Search Behaviors

Bill highlights a pivotal change in how consumers, especially younger demographics, approach search. With platforms like TikTok and social media becoming primary search tools, the landscape is shifting away from traditional search engines like Google. He cites studies showing that nearly 70-75% of social media users turn to these platforms for product searches:

“Nearly 3/4 of UK social media users use social platforms to search for a product before they make a purchase.” — Bill Fisher [16:37]

Integration of AI in Search Platforms

The integration of AI is revolutionizing search experiences across retail media and social platforms. Bill points out that companies like Meta are embedding AI functionalities into their search bars across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to enhance user experience:

“Meta integrating its AI functionality into its search bars across Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp earlier this year.” — Bill Fisher [19:16]

Impact on Traditional Search Advertising

While traditional search still commands over 40% of global digital ad spending, the growth rate of retail media search is outpacing it. Bill forecasts that by 2026, retail search ad spending will grow at twice the rate of traditional search, signaling a significant shift:

“If we look at retail media, for example, we already specifically track retail media search. Ad spending ... will grow at around about twice the rate of traditional search.” — Bill Fisher [25:43]

Key Insights:

• AI’s Role: Generative AI is poised to further transform search, making interactions more intuitive and integrated across different platforms.
• Google’s Positioning: Despite facing regulatory pressures and competition from other platforms, Google remains a dominant force, though its growth is slightly hindered by these emerging trends.

4. Show-Stopping Arguments: Weighing the Trends

In the final segment, both Evelyn and Bill present compelling arguments for why their respective trends are pivotal for 2025.

Evelyn’s Argument for Regulation:

“Regulation is most likely to happen in 2025 because it's already happening now... there will have to be some reprioritization that goes on in the committees. But I do believe that we will see a lot next year.” — Evelyn Mitchell Wolf [23:58]

Evelyn asserts that the momentum behind regulatory actions against big tech and the urgent need to protect children online make this trend inevitable and highly impactful.

Bill’s Argument for the Triumvirate Impact:

“Global ad revenues currently stand at about 28% of total digital ad spending this year. By 2026, it will be down 2 percentage points to 26. It's not a lot. Google's still a giant in the circle.” — Bill Fisher [27:05]

Bill emphasizes that the continual integration of AI and the rising dominance of retail media and social search will significantly undermine traditional search advertising, even as giants like Google maintain their presence.

5. Conclusion and Takeaways

Marcus wraps up the episode by commending both guests for their insightful analysis, highlighting the balanced perspectives on regulation and technological shifts. He directs listeners to the full report for an in-depth exploration of the nine pivotal trends identified by EMarketer analysts.

“Our analysts put their heads together and wrote a report about nine pivotal shifts in AI regulation and advertising that will change the business landscape.” — Marcus [02:15]

Key Takeaways:

• Regulatory Oversight: Expect heightened antitrust actions and new legislation targeting big tech and the protection of minors online.
• Evolving Search Landscape: Retail media, social platforms, and AI technologies are set to redefine search behaviors and advertising strategies.
• Strategic Adaptation: Marketers must stay abreast of these trends to navigate the changing digital advertising landscape effectively.

Listeners are encouraged to access the full report via the link provided in the show notes for a comprehensive understanding of the trends shaping 2025.

Notable Quotes:

• "Both Slater and Ferguson have been critical of Big Tech in the past. Ferguson said he wants to, quote, 'end Big Tech's vendetta against competition.'" — Evelyn Mitchell Wolf [04:37]

• "Nearly 3/4 of UK social media users use social platforms to search for a product before they make a purchase." — Bill Fisher [16:37]

• "Regulation is most likely to happen in 2025 because it's already happening now..." — Evelyn Mitchell Wolf [23:58]

• "Global ad revenues currently stand at about 28% of total digital ad spending this year. By 2026, it will be down 2 percentage points to 26. It's not a lot. Google's still a giant in the circle." — Bill Fisher [27:05]

For a detailed analysis and more insights, tune into the full episode of Behind the Numbers: The Top Trends of 2025 That Marketers Need to Know Now available on all major podcast platforms.