Summary of "Behind the Numbers: Tik-Tok: The Latest on Trump’s Extension and Deal Talks"

Episode Release Date: April 21, 2025
Podcast Title: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Host: Marcus
Guests: Jasmine Emberg (Vice President and Principal Analyst, Social Media) and Marissa Jones (Analyst, Marketing Advertising Briefing)

1. Extension of TikTok’s Sale Deadline

The episode begins with a discussion on the Trump administration's recent decision to extend TikTok's sale deadline once again. On April 4, President Trump granted TikTok a 75-day extension, pushing the deadline to mid-June. This marks the second extension, with the first having occurred in January, extending the deadline to April.

Marissa Jones explains the rationale behind the extension:

“My main interpretation of why he wants to keep extending it and keep trying for a deal... is that keeping TikTok alive is a great way to really curry favor with younger generations, Gen Z especially...”
(04:05)

Jasmine Emberg adds context by linking the extension to broader geopolitical tensions between the US and China:

“TikTok has now also become a bargaining chip in a larger geopolitical battle between the US And China... we could actually end up in a scenario where TikTok kind of remains in limbo for much longer than any of us could have anticipated...”
(05:02)

Marcus brings up potential legal concerns:

“The federal TikTok ban law upheld by the Supreme Court allows for one 90 day reprieve, but only if there's a deal on the table and a formal notification to Congress is made... Mr. Trump might not have known that they were involved in brokering the deal.”
(06:30)

Jasmine emphasizes the legal implications:

“This law is still on the books... all this is saying is Trump is directing these companies not to enforce the law... it's still very much in flux.”
(07:15)

2. Public Opinion on the TikTok Ban

The conversation shifts to public sentiment regarding the potential ban of TikTok. Marissa Jones cites statistics indicating a shift in American opinion:

“The amount of Americans who support a TikTok ban overall is going down... from 50% to close to about 32% from spring 2023 to the summer of 2024.”
(08:00)

Additionally, the share of Americans who are unsure about the ban has increased:

“The share of folks who are unsure has climbed from 28% to 39%.”
(08:00)

Marissa further breaks down the perspectives of TikTok users versus non-users:

“61% of TikTok users oppose the ban in August of last year, versus 10% who supported one. For non users, it's flipped 42% supporting, 15% opposing.”
(08:00)

Marcus references a Pew Research study highlighting concerns:

“Among supporters of a TikTok ban, eight in 10 were concerned over users data security being at risk...”
(08:00)

This underscores that data security remains the primary concern driving support for the ban, rather than issues like content addiction.

3. Impact on TikTok Creators

The episode delves into how the ongoing uncertainty affects TikTok creators. Jasmine Emberg articulates the general sentiment among creators:

“Creators feel really gaslit... they've been dealing with this now for up to a year... they've worked to diversify their strategies...”
(09:48)

Marcus introduces a notable quote from Terrell Wade, a comedian and content creator:

“I'm glad there's an extension. But to be honest, going through this process again feels a bit exhausting... it starts to feel less like a real threat and more like background noise.”
(13:04)

Chloe Veltman of NPR observes:

“The prevailing emotion among creators seems to be a despondent shrug of whateverness because you can't control it.”
(13:04)

Marissa Jones highlights creators' proactive measures:

“Creators have been diversifying their strategy, looking for content that they can post on TikTok that also stretches to other platforms like YouTube Shorts and Instagram reels...”
(11:18)

Jasmine concurs, emphasizing the importance of diversification and migrating to more controllable platforms:

“A lot of creators... are already diversified... the broader lesson is to be migrating to platforms where you have more control over your content, your audiences and monetization.”
(12:20)

4. Potential Buyers for TikTok’s US Operations

The discussion transitions to the various companies interested in acquiring TikTok’s US operations. Jasmine Emberg outlines the diversity of potential buyers:

“Amazon was one of them. We also saw mobile technology company Applovin throw their hat into the ring... a consortium that includes Oracle... Andreessen Horowitz... OnlyFans and a cryptocurrency company.”
(14:08)

Marissa Jones notes the significance of this interest:

“TikTok presents a really interesting opportunity to reach an audience that is more engaged with the content they're consuming than a lot of other platforms.”
(17:08)

Marcus references The Economist and News Diet on concerns regarding algorithm control:

“If ByteDance keeps control of the recommendation algorithm, it could theoretically still influence Americans... Americans might look at the auction being run from the White House and wonder has that outcome been avoided since.”
(17:39)

Jasmine summarizes the complexity:

“That's a great way to describe it, Marcus.”
(18:46)

5. Advertiser Confidence Amid Uncertainty

The conversation shifts to how TikTok is managing advertiser confidence amidst the ongoing uncertainty. Marissa Jones discusses TikTok’s strategies to retain advertisers:

“TikTok is really trying to push advertisers to stay the course, trying to instill confidence... offering advertisers incentives, offering discounts on certain ad campaigns...”
(21:38)

She also notes challenges faced by TikTok:

“We're seeing that advertiser confidence might be fluctuating and dropping in some cases... TikTok CPMs dropping 80% year over year...”
(21:38)

Despite these challenges, Marissa is optimistic about TikTok’s ad revenue trajectory:

“Ad spend is still pretty good on the platform... we are still seeing TikTok is trying to shift the conversation away from that.”
(21:38)

6. Implications of a Permanent Ban

The potential consequences of a permanent TikTok ban are explored. Jasmine Emberg provides a nuanced view:

“If a permanent ban does go through, the creator economy overall is going to be just fine... influencer marketing accounts for about 60% of all revenues that US creators are generating...”
(18:54)

However, she raises concerns about the impact on smaller creators:

“There will certainly be a devastating impact on a lot of smaller creators and smaller businesses that rely on the app... the biggest negative impact really will be on the creation of new creators.”
(18:54)

Marissa Jones adds that while established creators may fare well due to diversification, new entrants may struggle without TikTok’s discovery potential:

“Creators have been preparing for this for quite some time now... some creators might struggle to generate the same number of audience members on other platforms.”
(11:18)

7. Future Outlook and Conclusion

The episode concludes with an optimistic yet cautious outlook on TikTok’s future. Jasmine Emberg believes the influence of TikTok will persist through other platforms adopting its short-form video features:

“If TikTok went away, the kind of soul or essence of TikTok stays with us because it has influenced social media so much...”
(21:03)

Marissa Jones anticipates continued growth in TikTok’s user base if the platform remains operational:

“TikTok will add another 15 million users over the next few years, reaching close to 40% of all Americans using TikTok, if it's still around by 2028.”
(23:05)

Marcus wraps up the episode by thanking guests Jasmine and Marissa, as well as the production team, emphasizing the ongoing importance of staying informed on digital media trends.

Notable Quotes:

• Marissa Jones (04:05): “Keeping TikTok around is a great way to really curry favor with younger generations, Gen Z especially...”

• Jasmine Emberg (05:02): “TikTok has now also become a bargaining chip in a larger geopolitical battle between the US And China...”

• Terrell Wade (13:04): “I'm glad there's an extension. But to be honest, going through this process again feels a bit exhausting...”

• Terrell Wade (13:04): “Every time a new deadline pops up, it starts to feel less like a real threat and more like background noise.”

• Chloe Veltman (13:04): “The prevailing emotion among creators seems to be a despondent shrug of whateverness because you can't control it.”

Conclusion:

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing saga surrounding TikTok's potential sale and ban in the United States. With insights from industry experts Jasmine Emberg and Marissa Jones, the discussion highlights the geopolitical maneuvering, shifting public opinions, the resilience and strategy of creators, and the myriad of potential buyers interested in TikTok’s valuable platform. Despite legal and political hurdles, TikTok continues to be a significant player in the digital landscape, influencing both social media trends and advertising strategies. The future remains uncertain, but the podcast underscores the importance of adaptability and diversification for creators and advertisers alike.