Behind the Numbers: TV and Streaming Trends for 2025—Netflix's Live Sports Push & Small/Mid-Sized Brands Spending More on CTV Ads | Jan 17, 2025

Summary

Behind the Numbers: TV and Streaming Trends for 2025—Netflix's Live Sports Push & Small/Mid-Sized Brands Spending More on CTV Ads

Podcast Information:

• Title: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
• Host/Author: eMarketer
• Episode: TV and Streaming Trends for 2025—Netflix's Live Sports Push & Small/Mid-Sized Brands Spending More on CTV Ads
• Release Date: January 17, 2025

---

Introduction

In the January 17, 2025 episode of Behind the Numbers, host Marcus sits down with eMarketer’s Vice President Paul Werner and Senior Analyst Ross Benesh to explore significant trends shaping the future of TV and streaming. The discussion centers on two primary predictions: the increasing share of Connected TV (CTV) ad revenues from small and mid-sized brands, and Netflix's strategic foray into live sports broadcasting.

---

Trend 1: Growth of CTV Ad Revenues from Small and Mid-Sized Brands

Presenter: Ross Benesh

Signature Take

Ross Benesh predicts that the proportion of CTV advertising revenue generated by small and mid-sized businesses will see substantial growth. He emphasizes that streaming platforms like Roku, Disney, and Comcast are enabling easier access for these advertisers through self-serve options, thereby democratizing ad space previously dominated by large brands.

“You’re gonna see more youtubification of streaming.” — Ross Benesh [05:10]

How It Will Technically Play Out

Ross explains that streaming services are increasingly focusing on programmatic advertising and self-serve platforms to attract a broader range of advertisers. This shift allows smaller brands to purchase ad inventory without the need for large budgets typically required by national campaigns. However, he acknowledges challenges such as limited creative resources among smaller advertisers, which may lead to more simplistic ad creatives.

“You’re going to see some cheaper creative as more performance and more small advertisers are crowding the market.” — Ross Benesh [11:06]

He also highlights the role of AI in assisting small advertisers to produce effective ads without significant investment in creative teams.

Showstopping Argument

Ross concludes by stressing the necessity for streaming operators to diversify their revenue streams to remain profitable. With large advertisers reaching their spending limits, embracing small and mid-sized advertisers becomes essential.

“The amount of revenue they can bring in from large advertisers is going to get tapped out. So to reach their full potential, they’re going to lean more heavily on small and mid-market advertisers where there are just many more players to choose from.” — Ross Benesh [19:19]

---

Trend 2: Netflix's Expansion into Live Sports Broadcasting

Presenter: Paul Werner

Signature Take

Paul Werner discusses Netflix's aggressive entry into the live sports arena as a transformative move that signifies a new era in sports video licensing. He points out Netflix's recent acquisitions, including exclusive rights to stream major events like the FIFA Women's World Cups and the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul boxing event.

“Tech companies are best positioned to take advantage of that global interest and they can be a lot more nimble than traditional broadcasters.” — Paul Werner [19:42]

How It Will Technically Play Out

Paul elaborates on Netflix's strategy to experiment and solidify its presence in live sports. He references Netflix's successful experiments with various sports, including WWE wrestling, which has garnered higher viewership than traditional broadcasts. Paul anticipates that Netflix will continue to secure consistent rights for entire sports seasons and explore niche and international sports markets to capitalize on global audiences.

“They will have to pick out something that’s big because, yes, most of the major rights are locked up for 10-year contracts... But there’s a lot more that they can.” — Paul Werner [17:58]

He also notes the potential for Netflix to leverage its vast global subscriber base to introduce and popularize lesser-known sports internationally.

Showstopping Argument

Paul emphasizes Netflix's global reach and technological agility as key factors that will drive its success in sports licensing. Unlike traditional broadcasters confined to specific geographies, Netflix's worldwide presence allows it to tap into diverse markets and optimize sports content for various regions.

“Tech companies are best positioned to take advantage of that global interest and they can be a lot more nimble than traditional broadcasters. So I think that's part of what's fueled the tech boom in sports licensing and it's just going to continue with Netflix as now a major player.” — Paul Werner [19:42]

---

Round Two: Technical Manifestation of Trends

Ross on CTV Ad Growth

Ross envisions streaming services enhancing their self-serve and programmatic advertising platforms to attract small and mid-sized advertisers. He anticipates a rise in AI-driven ad creation tools that lower the barrier for these businesses to produce competitive ads without hefty budgets.

Paul on Netflix’s Sports Expansion

Paul projects that Netflix will transition from experimental live sports broadcasts to consistent seasonal rights acquisitions. He predicts that beyond mainstream sports like UFC and WWE, Netflix will explore international and niche sports to expand its global footprint and diversify its sports portfolio.

---

Competition Outcome

After presenting their arguments, Marcus awards the episode’s "Taker Baker" crown to Paul Werner. The decision highlights the compelling nature of Netflix's strategic moves into live sports and its potential to reshape sports broadcasting on a global scale.

“A big world out there and tech companies are best positioned to take advantage of that global interest and they can be a lot more nimble than traditional broadcasters.” — Paul Werner [19:42]

---

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Marcus acknowledging the close competition between Ross's and Paul's insightful predictions. He underscores the significance of both trends: the democratization of CTV advertising empowering smaller brands, and Netflix's bold steps into live sports cementing its role as a formidable player in sports media licensing.

“Live sports offer ample downtime before and during games, making a well-suited fit for ad breaks a lucrative source of revenue.” — Narrator [20:00]

Listeners are encouraged to tune in for future episodes as eMarketer continues to dissect and predict the evolving landscape of digital media.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Ross Benesh [05:10]: “You’re gonna see more youtubification of streaming.”
• Paul Werner [19:42]: “Tech companies are best positioned to take advantage of that global interest and they can be a lot more nimble than traditional broadcasters.”
• Ross Benesh [19:19]: “The amount of revenue they can bring in from large advertisers is going to get tapped out. So to reach their full potential, they’re going to lean more heavily on small and mid-market advertisers where there are just many more players to choose from.”

---

Final Thoughts

This episode of Behind the Numbers provides a comprehensive analysis of pivotal trends set to influence TV and streaming in 2025. By examining the shifting dynamics of CTV ad revenues and Netflix's strategic entry into live sports, listeners gain valuable insights into the future directions of digital media and advertising.

Transcript

[Ross Benesh]

And there'll be international sports that, you know, think about how cricket, like in the early days of Disney plus was so crucial. You know, there could be something that's not popular in the U.S. necessarily, that Netflix grabs, and maybe it gives them a huge boost in South America or Asia, you know, wherever the sport happens to be.

[Marcus]

Hey, gang. It's Friday, January 17th. Paul, Ross and listeners, welcome to the behind the Numbers show, an E Marketer podcast. I'm Marcus. So before we start, remember to write us a review if you have a few seconds. It means the world to us. It helps keep this podcast going. With that out of the way, let's get to it. Today I'm joined by two folks. We start with our vice president of many things. He's based in the Pine Tree State. It's Paul Werner.

[Paul Werner]

Great to be here. Thanks for having me.

[Marcus]

Hey, fella. We're also joined by our senior analyst fighting out of the Empire State, Ross Benesh.

[Ross Benesh]

Hey, Marcus.

[Marcus]

Hey, buddy. All right, today's fact, gents. That's where we begin. How long did it take to build the Great Pyramids of Egypt? About as long as it seems to take any roadworks in the whole country to do just a small section of road. 20 years. There were some other estimates. I think it probably took longer than that. There were some estimates that set up to 100, but this is according to history.com, pretty good source. So, yeah, the Great Pyramid of Giza was constructed as a tomb for the Egyptian pharaoh Khufu. Estimates place of completion sometime around 2560 B.C. or 2540. It took about two decades, apparently. And Elizabeth Nix writes that it covers an area of 13 acres. The monument was designed to align with the points of the compass and built with an estimated estimated 2.3 million stones, each weighing a ton or more on average, which makes no sense how they move these.

[Ross Benesh]

They had no unions back then. They move quicker.

[Paul Werner]

Yeah. I mean, today with giant cranes and forklifts, it would probably take longer than 20 years to do this. So, yeah, I can't imagine, but I know it was actually for those keeping Track. It was 2557 B.C. and I remember it very clearly.

[Marcus]

Paul's the one who was trying to start one of those unions.

[Paul Werner]

Yes, I'll say also that we know Rome wasn't built in a day. Definitely. Neither were any of these pyramids.

[Marcus]

Yeah, apparently not. It's a heck of a project because there's more. There are three on this site. So Khufu's pyramid, two other large pyramids for Pharaohs built on the same site. One for his son Khafre and and the other for Khafre's son Menkaure. Khafre's pyramid is home to the famous great Sphinx statue. Over 250ft long, 66ft high. Remarkable. Anyway, today's real topic, the great behind the Numbers take off TV and streaming trends and predictions for 2025. All right, this is the great behind the numbers takeoff TV and streaming trends and predictions for this year. It's great British Bake off style for today's episode in which our takers bakers will be cooking up one trend each for you. Three rounds signature take the how it will technically play out challenge and the show stopping argument. Let's meet the contestants predictions. So Ross and then Paul, in a sentence, what are you going to be baking for us today? Ross, you go first.

[Ross Benesh]

What I'm baking is that the share of streaming ad revenues coming from small companies will grow.

[Marcus]

Okay, and Paul, what do you have for us?

[Paul Werner]

I have that Netflix's big splash with the NFL Christmas day broadcast signals a new a new normal in sports video licensing.

[Marcus]

All right, let's get into round one. Signature take. Our chefs will have about a minute to explain the premise of their trends. So Ross, you mentioned that for yours you're saying the share of CTV ad spending from small and mid sized advertisers is going to expand, expand on that for us a little bit.

[Ross Benesh]

Well you've seen it in a few different announcements with Roku and Disney and Comcast where they've made it easier for advertisers to have a self serve option to buy their inventory. And basically they're going after more small and mid market advertisers because you get tapped out if you're only going after big brands. You know big brands are the early adopters especially when there's a scarce inventory of this area. But to really grow the revenue for their streaming platforms, they're going to have to embrace more small advertisers which is what these Digital services like YouTube and Facebook have been doing for a long time. You're gonna see more youtubification of streaming.

[Marcus]

Okay, and when you say it kind of the, the scales amounts of power is going to shift. Are we talking from 9010 to 50.

[Ross Benesh]

50 or it's tough to put a share on it? I, I, I think a little bit or a lot it's going to be a sizable minority coming from this. I think most spend is still going to come from like your large or nationally known brands for most CTV services because they just don't have as much inventory. But the share going to those small ones is going to keep growing and maybe eventually become the majority. Probably not this year, though.

[Marcus]

Okay, Paul, your signature. Take what you got for us.

[Paul Werner]

Yeah, I think with Netflix really jumping into the fray of live sports, it's certainly a big change for them. If you recall, Netflix had famously sworn off advertising, and we know how that turned out. And they had done something very similar with live sports where they said they just weren't interested. So then this year we have the Mike Tyson Jake Paul mega event, and now we have these Christmas Day broadcasts and the announcement late in the year that Netflix was licensing the next two or signed an exclusive license worldwide to stream the next two FIFA Women's World Cups. So I think these are big events and it basically means that tech is now firmly a really big player in sports licensing. We had seen this coming on with Amazon and Apple tv, but I think Netflix, with its how many over close to 760 million viewers worldwide the end of this year, that those are big numbers. And keep in mind that with all of these tech companies, most of the deals are either global or these companies have deals in many different regions, which is quite different from the legacy media media companies in the US that are licensing the bulk of the big league sports rights.

[Marcus]

Still to this day, when you stop and zoom out, you do notice that Netflix has conducted a fairly thorough level of experimentation when it comes to streaming live sports. Right. I mean, you mentioned a bunch of. But if you go all the way back to. I don't know if it was beginning of last year or the year before that at this point, but they had golf tournaments, tennis tournaments, as you mentioned. They had the boxing match, the two NFL games. They've got rights to the Women's Football World cup coming up. They now they've got WWE RAW Wrestling, which just left traditional TV for a weekly slot on Netflix from. From January 6th. And that's. That's a big deal as well. Some folks might not watch wrestling the way that our colleagues and friends Ross Benish does. But Jason Asian of Inc. Was noting it's the longest running weekly episodic series on tv. Talk to me.

[Ross Benesh]

There's a little bit of kayfabe in that statement. Kayfabe is the pro wrestling term to suspend disbelief for the purpose of telling a story. Like you basically believe in fakery because you want to so buy into the performance art. WWE says that they say a lot of things that aren't true about their product. Which I guess, what do you expect? They're a professional wrestling company. But there are other TV shows with longer. Like Meet the Press has been on with weekly episodic additions for much longer than Raw has been. WWE does say this, state what you're saying, but it's not true.

[Marcus]

So, so there's. So they've. Is it because they've not been because they, they started in 1993?

[Ross Benesh]

It's because they say whatever they want. They say all sorts of things about their past that isn't true about ratings that they never had. They, they, they inflate the gate for WrestleMania 3 that Hulk Hogan beat Andre the Giant. If WWE is saying it, that doesn't mean it's true.

[Marcus]

Okay, so did they, they started.

[Ross Benesh]

Just go look, just go look at Meet the Press and when that show started, how many episodes it had compared to Raw. And there's others too.

[Marcus]

Okay, but it's what I mean, it's one of. Right, it's been on.

[Ross Benesh]

Yeah, yeah, it's been on for a very long time.

[Marcus]

Celebrating its 32nd birthday for sure. And the audience too is pretty significant. I mean their final episodes on its previous Home USA network averaging 1.6 million viewers according to Nielsen. And that went up against Monday Night Football. Well, huge competitor.

[Ross Benesh]

And that's just, you know, domestically that they've expanded internationally a lot. But they were getting, you know, more like 8 million homes or 6 to 8 million homes in the late 90s. But wrestling overall was a lot more popular then. So it's actually less popular than it used to be in the US but probably more popular globally.

[Marcus]

Yeah. All right, let's talk into these two a bit more in round two, the how it will technically play out challenge. Our chefs will explain in a bit more detail how they expect the trends to manifest. Ross, let's go back to yours. How do you see this unfolding throughout the next couple of months or.

[Ross Benesh]

Yeah, well, more focus from the streaming services on self serve, more focus on programmatic. Just trying to get into new advertiser categories that they necessarily haven't been into. You know, this is probably going to lead into your next part, but as that unfolds, you will have some challenges. A big part of it is that a small and mid sized company won't have the ability to spend on creative like a big company. You know, if you're going for like a small auto dealer that's just in your region, they're not going to make an ad that looks like the national Toyota ad that's on Monday night. Football. So you know, you're going to see some, some cheaper creative as more performance and more small advertisers are crowding the market. Mm.

[Marcus]

Cheaper creative, but I guess more creative. You using AI and that, that could.

[Ross Benesh]

Help that, that probably will come in. Especially if you're a really low level. Like if you're really low budget and you don't have the, the capability to have a creative director for this ad. Yeah, for sure, AI could, could be part of that and you know, look a lot like social ads.

[Marcus]

Yeah. There was an interesting trend from Danny Benowitz, global and US president of Magna. He had three predictions for 2025, but one of them I wanted to bring up here is that they think that there will be more than three entirely AI generated ads in the Super Bowl. Oh wow.

[Ross Benesh]

This super bowl, like the one that's coming in a month?

[Marcus]

Yep, 2020. The one played in 2025. Yeah. The one that will likely feature the Chiefs. Let's be real. Paul, what do you make of this trend from Ross? Any thoughts?

[Paul Werner]

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, they're definitely, there's a bifurcation in terms of the size of these players and what they're, they're going to be capable of doing. But you know, I think if, if you, if you think about like from the platform's perspective, right, you've got huge incumbents and then you've got companies that have not really been as active, like Roku for example, getting into, you know, getting more into live sports with things like X Games. It's really just a much more unpredictable landscape because it used to be that the platforms that were most involved in sports were the ones that had the big budgets and the combination of legacy media and streaming media. But now you've got these tech players and you have these sort of device companies and it's just, it's just very different now. And I think it actually gives more opportunities for lesser known sports, you know, more niche sports to find a place in the ecosystem.

[Marcus]

Yeah. All right, Paul, we go back to your trend for, for round two, how it will play out. I mean, one question I had is, are these working? And it depends on what you define as, as working. The Jake Paul Tyson fight drew record breaking audience and also apparently pulled in 1.4 million new subscriptions to Netflix. According to Antenna Data, it's a research company. If you look at the Christmas NFL game, audience peaked at 27 million. That's around half the, of the, of the Tyson pool fight, but that's about a quarter of what the super bowl pools in. So, you know, you can look at it as always, Only a quarter, 27 million people for an audience, it is pretty impressive. So that's what they've achieved kind of the end of last year. How do you see this trend playing out and Netflix moving more into sports this year?

[Paul Werner]

Yeah, I mean, for starters, I think when it comes to those metrics, I'm also skeptical. I mean, you know, Ross was talking about WWE and the stats they share. You know, I think anything that is self reported by Netflix, I'm not disputing the numbers, but I think that they can afford to be selective in what data they share. So, you know, we don't really know how it's driving their business because there's a lot more that happens kind of behind, you know, in a black box. But clearly, you know, whatever the actual number is, it's a big number. And I think I would definitely consider all of Netflix's recent experiments to be successful. And I think what it looks like going forward is just building on that. You know, they had, they had a few technical issues. I think they're going to need to work those out. But I think that one of the big factors here is the global one, is that this doesn't just reach a very big audience, but it expands the audience for these sports properties really to the whole world. And there's a lot to be said for that because then you can build on those pockets of interest and optimize them. So it's just really like a different thing than if ESPN or NBC Sports is carrying a stream or a broadcast within a certain in the U.S. or a certain geography. So this is just a lot bigger than that.

[Marcus]

Yeah. Ross, any thoughts on Netflix moving more in sports? What they've done, what you expect them to do, there's the Fubo deal as well, which is interesting because obviously they're a sports streaming service and they've decided to, to partner with, with Disney. What's your take here?

[Ross Benesh]

Well, so they've done a lot of these experiments and at some point, if they're going well, like they seem to be going, you want to graduate from doing experiment to having something consistent. So they, they do have the WWE program. And, and to Paul's point, the, the, you know, because it was pushed out globally and Netflix is, has so many subscribers, the viewership for that, at least in the first episode, you know, is quite a bit higher than what the viewership was on, on USA Network throughout the year. But what I expect Netflix at some point to do is to not just have like the one off golf tournament or the one off NFL game to have consistent rights for a season. Yeah, of, of a sport. Now, like some of the big sports are pretty locked up.

[Marcus]

I was going to say, is there.

[Paul Werner]

Anything left but ufc?

[Ross Benesh]

Yeah, UFC would be interesting.

[Paul Werner]

That's coming up this year and that would actually be exactly what Ross is describing. And I totally agree. And I think the reason I single this out as a trend is, you know, Netflix has been late to this game, frankly. But if you look at what Amazon did, where at first it was very experimental, they actually took over the NFL deal from Twitter and it was not exclusive. So they've shifted from that to really just going full on, particularly with the NFL, but now also with the NBA and a lot of other sports. Amazon has also done a very good job of licensing especially world International soccer in certain geographies where they're getting a lot of value out of that. But I think with Netflix, they will definitely have to pick out something that's big because, yes, most of the major rights are locked up for 10 year contracts and many of them have been renewed in the past couple of years. So there's not a lot of inventory available. But I think the UFC could be one where they swoop in. I'm sure they're gonna have a lot.

[Ross Benesh]

Of competition and there'll be international sports that, you know, think about how cricket, like in the early days of Disney was so crucial. You know, there could be something that's not popular in the U.S. necessarily, that Netflix grabs and maybe it gives them a huge boost and South America or Asia, wherever the sport happens to be.

[Paul Werner]

Also college, I think college basketball, I think women's sports, which they've obviously tried to tap into that with the FIFA Women's World cup, but there's plenty more where that came from in terms of the surging interest in a lot of women's sports. So there are definitely things Netflix can and will do short of a giant, you know, NHL, NFL and you know, mlb, NBA deal, which, you know, those are not really available right now, but there's a lot more that they.

[Ross Benesh]

It is interesting to think about if Netflix grabbed an international league, like let's say like some of the European basketball, how that would probably help popularize it outside its region because just so many people have Netflix, you know, they'd be looked at as a very, very valuable rights partner for that purpose.

[Marcus]

Yeah, great points, gents. Let's move to round three. Real quick, the showstopping argument. Our chefs will pull out their best closing arguments as to why their trend is most likely to happen. Let's go 20 seconds or less. Ross, your take.

[Ross Benesh]

Well, streaming operators are under immense pressure to grow their revenues and show profits and the amount of revenue they can bring in from large advertisers is going to get tapped out. So to reach their full potential, they're going to lean more heavily on small and mid market advertisers where there are just many more players to choose from.

[Marcus]

And for you Paul, I think it's.

[Paul Werner]

A big world out there and tech companies are best positioned to take advantage of that global interest and they can be a lot more nimble than traditional broadcasters. So I think that's part of what's fueled the tech boom, so to speak, in sports licensing and it's just going to continue with Netflix as now a major player.

[Marcus]

Yeah, great arguments gents. There was another point to the Netflix and sports trend prediction from the economists. Basically saying live sports are a good fit for Netflix now that they offer ads. The article was saying that live sports offer ample downtime before and during games, making a well suited fit for ad breaks a lucrative source of revenue. Noting that even subscribers to Netflix's ad free packages were shown commercials during the Christmas Day NFL broadcasts. So time now to crown a star Taker Baker and this episode I'm giving it to Paul. Congratulations to Paul. It's very close indeed. But this one I think is fascinating from Netflix and Sports, even though I agree 100% with with Ross's take as well. Thank you gents so much for hanging out with me for today's episode. Thank you. First to Ross.

[Ross Benesh]

Thanks Marcus.

[Marcus]

Thank you to Paul.

[Paul Werner]

Thank you. Let me cake.

[Marcus]

And thank you to the whole editing crew, Victoria, John, Lance and Danny Stuart who runs the team and Sophie who does our social media. Thanks to everyone for listening in. We hope to see you on Tuesday for the behind the Numbers show, an E Marketer podcast. Happy long MLK weekends folks.