Behind the Numbers: Commerce Media Trends and Opportunities | Special Edition Summary

Podcast Information:

• Title: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
• Host/Author: EMARKETER
• Episode: Commerce Media Trends and Opportunities | Special Edition
• Release Date: May 17, 2025

Overview: In this special edition of EMARKETER’s "Behind the Numbers" podcast, Principal Analyst Sarah Marzano and Senior Analyst Max Willens delve into the latest trends and insights from the Commerce Media Trends 2025 Summit. This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving commerce media landscape, the impact of economic uncertainties, the rise of commerce intermediaries, and the race to innovate in ad inventory. Additionally, Sarah engages in a comprehensive conversation with Lauren Grusky, Head of Sales and Partnerships at Chase Media Solutions, exploring how Chase leverages consumer spending data to enhance personalization and customer experiences.

1. Key Trends in Commerce Media 2025

Dominance of Major Retailers: Sarah Marzano begins by discussing the forecast that ad spending on commerce media is projected to reach nearly $70 billion in 2025. Despite the influx of new entrants, Amazon and Walmart continue to dominate the landscape.

• “Amazon is set to continue comfortably clearing more than three quarters of retail media ad spending,” says Sarah (02:02).

Economic Uncertainty and Tariffs: Max highlights the unexpected challenges posed by looming tariffs, which were not anticipated in their November report. These tariffs could potentially trigger a global recession and spike inflation, affecting both businesses and consumers.

• “The sort of worst case scenario is a secession of trade between the two largest economies in the world,” Max explains (04:11).

Resilience of Essential Categories: Sarah emphasizes that essential categories like food and beverage or health and personal care may be less impacted by tariffs. Retailers with strong domestic supply chains, especially in grocery, are better positioned to withstand economic shocks.

• “Performance driven foundation here may help retail media remain a strategic priority even when marketing budgets tighten,” Sarah adds (08:24).

Impact of the Kroger-Albertsons Merger Blockade: Max and Sarah discuss the blocked merger between Kroger and Albertsons, which would have significantly impacted the retail media ecosystem by creating a massive combined entity.

• “That merger would have created a real competitive advantage within the ecosystem as it stands today,” Sarah notes (08:49).

Optimistic Outlook Despite Pressures: Max remains optimistic, pointing out that retail media networks not dominated by Amazon and Walmart have significant growth potential. Innovations such as updated RTB protocols and increased advertiser satisfaction support this view.

• “80% of CPG advertisers said that retail media was at least as effective, if not more, as any other kind of digital media,” Max states (10:51).

2. Commerce Intermediaries Winning Ad Share

Rise of Platforms Like DoorDash and Instacart: Sarah and Max explore how commerce intermediaries are carving out significant shares of commerce media revenue. These platforms offer unique advantages, such as high purchase intent and granular purchase data, without the inventory management burdens faced by traditional retailers.

• “Commerce intermediary ad spending revenue is going to surpass $2 billion this year and set to grow over 50% by 2027,” Sarah reveals (14:20).

Strategic Partnerships and Innovations: DoorDash’s partnership with Topsort and post-purchase ad units, along with Instacart’s collaboration with Uber Eats and the introduction of Capercards, exemplify how these intermediaries are expanding their ad inventories and enhancing advertiser opportunities.

• “DoorDash is a creative way to serve customers while increasing the utility of that post purchase real estate,” Sarah comments on DoorDash’s strategy (24:06).

Future of Partnerships and Content Creation: The discussion highlights the potential for cross-vertical collaborations and the impact of Gen AI on content creation, suggesting a shift towards more in-house content production as costs decrease.

• “What we're looking at is the entire consumer experience across shopping, dining, travel and everyday purchases,” Sarah envisions future partnerships (18:50).

3. Race to Create New Ad Inventory

Limitations of On-Site Ad Inventory: As traditional on-site ads reach saturation, retailers are seeking new sources of ad inventory. Amazon’s introduction of Retail Media as a Service at CES exemplifies this trend, aiming to extend its ad inventory by partnering with other retailers.

• “Retailers have to strike a delicate balance between monetization and user experience,” Sarah explains (19:52).

Innovative Ad Formats: Amazon’s rollout of shoppable video ads within AI-generated responses and DoorDash’s post-purchase ads demonstrate the push towards innovative ad formats that enhance user engagement without disrupting the user experience.

• “Amazon is excited about Rufus's potential as a surface for advertising,” Max highlights Amazon’s latest ad innovation (21:36).

Financial Players Entering Commerce Media: Lauren Grusky from Chase Media Solutions discusses how financial institutions like Chase are leveraging their extensive consumer data to provide personalized offers and seamless ad experiences. Chase’s ability to close the loop on ad spend through transaction data sets it apart from traditional retail media networks.

• “Our goal is to deliver value to our customers via Chase offers,” Lauren explains (30:12).

4. In-Depth Conversation with Lauren Grusky, Chase Media Solutions

Leveraging Consumer Insights: Lauren details how Chase Media Solutions utilizes its vast consumer data to offer personalized and relevant offers, enhancing the customer experience and providing valuable insights to brand partners.

• “We have access to the consumer in a way that we can deliver value for them through curated offers,” Lauren states (30:47).

Efficiency and Measurement: Chase’s platform inherently supports efficient ad spending by only charging advertisers when transactions occur, ensuring measurable ROI.

• “Merchants are only actually paying when a sale and a transaction takes place,” Lauren emphasizes (34:35).

Expanding Ad Inventory Across Touchpoints: Chase is innovating by utilizing its physical presence, such as branches and ATMs, to introduce new ad touchpoints like QR codes for local offers, thereby extending ad inventory beyond digital platforms.

• “You can imagine a world where you go to a Chase ATM and get a QR code to go to the local gas station,” Lauren envisions new ad opportunities (37:27).

Future of Commerce Media: Looking ahead, Lauren sees Chase playing a pivotal role in stitching together various consumer experiences across shopping, dining, and travel, leveraging their holistic view of consumer behavior to add continuous value.

• “We're able to be the thread that stitches all of this together,” Lauren predicts (44:14).

5. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Sarah and Max conclude by reflecting on the accuracy of their initial predictions:

• Rising Pressure on Retail Media Networks: Confirmed by the dominant positions of Amazon and Walmart.
• Commerce Intermediaries Winning Share: Supported by the growth trajectories of platforms like DoorDash and Instacart.
• Race to New Ad Inventory: Evidenced by innovative ad formats and strategic partnerships.

Looking Forward: The duo anticipates continued innovation and strategic collaborations within commerce media, with a keen eye on how economic factors and technological advancements will shape the future landscape.

• “We completely nailed this one,” Max humorously acknowledges their accurate predictions (28:35).

Closing Remarks: Sarah wraps up the discussion by preparing listeners for the upcoming segment with Lauren Grusky, promising deeper insights into Chase Media Solutions' strategies and future initiatives.

Notable Quotes:

• “Performance driven foundation here may help retail media remain a strategic priority even when marketing budgets tighten,” — Sarah Marzano (08:24)
• “80% of CPG advertisers said that retail media was at least as effective, if not more, as any other kind of digital media,” — Max Willens (10:51)
• “Our goal is to deliver value to our customers via Chase offers,” — Lauren Grusky (30:47)
• “We're able to be the thread that stitches all of this together,” — Lauren Grusky (44:14)

This episode of "Behind the Numbers" offers a comprehensive look into the dynamic and evolving world of commerce media, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities. Whether you're a marketer, retailer, or advertiser, the insights shared by Sarah, Max, and Lauren provide valuable guidance to navigate and thrive in the rapidly changing digital media landscape.