Behind the Numbers: Digital Lessons 2025 — The Triopoly’s Power, the Sleeping YouTube Giant, AI Search Behavior, and More

Date: October 17, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests:

• Eleni De Galaki (VP of Global Content Operations)
• Yuri Wormser (Principal Analyst, Media, Tech, and Ad Teams)

Episode Overview

This episode offers a data-driven recap of the most pivotal digital media and advertising trends of 2025, drawing from EMARKETER's new research: "10 Charts that Define Digital Markets in 2025 and Beyond." The discussion explores the evolving power of the advertising 'Triopoly' (Google, Meta, Amazon), YouTube's massive but under-monetized audience, the persistent and shifting realities of ecommerce by product category, and the slow but undeniable rise of AI-powered search and shopping behavior. Through a blend of statistics, expert analysis, and forward-looking insights, the hosts highlight how the digital landscape’s tectonic plates are subtly shifting, setting the stage for major changes in the near future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Triopoly's Shifting Market Power

[04:06-08:39]

• Definition of "Triopoly": Google, Meta, and Amazon dominate digital ad spend.

• Market Share Trends:

  • Over the past 5 years, the triopoly’s share of total ad spend in the US has risen about 12 percentage points.
  • Their share within digital ad spend has actually decreased by 2 percentage points.
  • "If we take Amazon out ... Google and Meta have seen their share drop by roughly 6 percentage points over the last five years." — Eleni, 05:55
  • Amazon is the major exception—its growth props up the triopoly’s overall numbers, while Google’s share is actually slipping, and Meta is roughly flat.

• Sources of Competition:

  • "Other digital" is rising—platforms like Walmart, TikTok, Reddit, and Peacock are capturing growing slices.
  • "There's sort of becoming like a fourth pillar of digital advertising." — Eleni, 06:42
  • Connected TV, retail media, and new social platforms are among the fastest growers.

• Big Picture Takeaway:

  • The triopoly's grip remains strong—about 60% share, “holding somewhat steady or dipping a little bit,” but the market is gradually becoming more competitive.
  • In raw dollars, revenue remains robust: Google +$4B YoY, Meta +$7–8B, Amazon up as well.
  • "So even though the shares are going down, we have ... they're making ... more dollars this year than they did last year." — Marcus, 07:57

2. The YouTube Opportunity: Time vs. Revenue Gap

[08:39-12:20]

• YouTube’s Scale:

  • #1 media platform in US for time spent; globally, 2.5 billion users.
  • Yet, US YouTube ad revenues are just $10B; global gross ad revenue $20B.
    • For comparison, Meta earns $73B from advertising.

• Challenges in Monetization:

  • Despite a bigger US user base than Facebook, YouTube earns ~4x less ad revenue.
  • "It's a very under monetized media property ... I think that differential between time spent and attention in general and ad revenue is going to be something that will probably shrink in the years going forward." — Yuri, 09:32
  • Contributing factors:
    • YouTube TV has less advertising due to its longer-form content.
    • Platform fragmentation, complex content environments, measurement/attribution challenges, and brand safety concerns (per Eleni, 11:12).

• Growth Prospects:

  • YouTube is adding millions of viewers every year; platform is still expanding its audience.
  • As ad formats evolve (shoppable, AI-driven targeting) and creative adaption improves, the gap is expected to shrink.

3. Ecommerce: Category Penetration and the Stubbornness of Offline

[12:53-17:38]

• Penetration Patterns:

  • Categories already high in ecommerce penetration (books, toys, computers) will grow fastest, increasing their lead by another 6–10 points by 2029.
  • Low-penetration categories (food & beverage, auto) will remain slow to shift—growth just 1–2 percentage points.
  • "The categories that are largely offline are offline for a reason. There’s some structural barriers that keep them there." — Eleni, 13:45

• Nuanced Growth Within Categories:

  • Apparel, despite inherent tactile challenges, will cross the 51% mark online by 2029, thanks to advances in return processes and potential 3D/AI try-on solutions.
  • Household and beauty (sub-category) similarly poised for above-average digital growth.

• Why Are Some Categories Stuck Offline?

  • Habit and the immediate, tactile, and social pleasures of in-person shopping persist, especially for perishables and cars.
  • "For food ... a lot of people will still go in for perishable goods ... while they’re there, they’ll pick up the packaged goods." — Yuri, 16:42
  • For autos, entrenched dealer systems and shoppers’ desire for in-person comparison and trial.

4. AI Shopping Assistants, Checkout, and Zero-Click Search

[17:38-23:54]

• Current State:

  • AI chatbots (OpenAI/ChatGPT) have seen explosive user growth: from 200M weekly users in Feb 2024 to 800M by Oct 2025.
    • "ChatGPT has really entered the realm of a mega app ... it’s heading [to a billion] and it’ll probably reach that pretty soon." — Yuri, 21:05
  • Actual commerce/search impact still minor:
    • Only 3% of “discovery time” spent on chatbots vs. traditional search (comScore).
    • Chatbot referral traffic is about 1% (BrightEdge).

• Why the Gap?

  • Users still default to Google for commerce; AI assistants are mainly used for deeper research, creativity, or personal queries—not for product search.
  • Early use-cases: information-seeking, writing, and even therapy, not necessarily shopping.
  • "It's early consumer behavior ... We haven't yet learned to ask AI to search for things that we want to buy that require clicking through." — Eleni, 23:14

• Forecasts & Possible Inflection Points:

  • Instant checkout and improved integration (as discussed in a recent episode) could change habits, but a fundamental shift is not imminent.
  • "In the near future [AI assistants] won't meaningfully change the penetration ... they do offer greater convenience ... but they don't really right now address the bigger barriers." — Eleni, 17:49

Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 05:55 | Eleni | “If we take Amazon out ... Google and Meta have seen their share drop by roughly 6 percentage points over the last five years.” | | 06:42 | Eleni | “There’s sort of becoming like a fourth pillar of digital advertising.” | | 07:53 | Yuri | "But the dips are pretty small and Meta, Amazon and Google are all pretty well positioned to grow in the AI era." | | 09:32 | Yuri | “It’s a very under monetized media property ... I think that differential between time spent and attention in general and ad revenue is going to be something that will probably shrink in the years going forward.” | | 11:12 | Eleni | “There are many different formats and many different sort of contexts for content ... measurement is quite difficult and attribution [is hard] when you have this sort of fragmentation and complexity.” | | 13:45 | Eleni | “The categories that are largely offline are offline for a reason. There’s some structural barriers that keep them there.” | | 16:42 | Yuri | "For food ... a lot of people will still go in for perishable goods ... while they’re there, they'll pick up the packaged goods." | | 17:49 | Eleni | "In the near future [AI assistants] won't meaningfully change the penetration ... they do offer greater convenience ... but they don't really right now address the bigger barriers." | | 21:05 | Yuri | “ChatGPT has really entered the realm of a mega app ... it’s heading [to a billion] and it’ll probably reach that pretty soon.” | | 23:14 | Eleni | "It's early consumer behavior ... We haven't yet learned to ask AI to search for things that we want to buy that require clicking through." |

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Triopoly’s Changing Role: 04:06–08:39
• YouTube’s Monetization Opportunity: 08:39–12:20
• Ecommerce Category Shifts: 12:53–17:38
• AI Shopping/Search Behavior: 17:38–23:54

Memorable Moments

• The “Generous” Elevator Statistic: The episode opens with an amusing factoid: “Every day, people take roughly 18 billion elevator trips ... more than the world’s car, plane and train journeys combined.” [01:04]
• Eleni’s Remote Work Perk: “...working from home three times a week, probably missing more than two, three months a year on this transportation.” [02:43]
• Early Use Cases for ChatGPT: “A lot of the time spent on ChatGPT doesn’t have to do with trying to compare ... a product. ... They’re using it as a tool to write things, to create things, and even ... as a therapist.” — Yuri, 22:10

Final Takeaways

• The triopoly retains a powerful but slowly weakening grip as the ad market becomes less concentrated, especially with the rise of "other digital" players.
• YouTube, despite enormous attention and audience, remains “under-monetized”—a gap likely to close with improved ad tech and formats.
• Ecommerce’s future growth is uneven, favoring already-digital categories, with deep-rooted habits and tangible experience keeping other sectors offline.
• The AI/chatbot revolution is imminent, but so far its actual impact on commerce is limited by entrenched behaviors—though this may change soon.

For More:
Refer to EMARKETER’s featured report, "10 Charts that Define Digital Markets in 2025 and Beyond," and recent related research on AI shopping and the YouTube opportunity, all available at eMarketer.com (subscriber access required).