Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

Episode: From Discounts to Emotional Marketing: What Retailers Should Be Focusing on This 2025 Holiday Season | Reimagining Retail
Date: September 10, 2025
Host: Susie Devakanyon
Guests: Zach Stamboer (Retail Analyst), Sky Canavas (Principal Analyst, Retail)

Overview

This episode focuses on the upcoming 2025 holiday retail season, highlighting what retailers should prioritize amid muted sales growth, shifting shopping calendars, and evolving consumer expectations. The conversation weaves through the intersection of value-driven strategies (discounts, loyalty perks) and emotional, brand-building marketing, underpinned by the increased role of mobile commerce and emerging AI-powered shopping tools.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Muted Holiday Sales Growth & Its Implications

• Sales are projected to grow only about 1%, the lowest since 2009.
• Economic pressures and earlier holiday shopping are pulling demand into earlier months, leaving less momentum for the core holiday period.
• Major categories expected to grow: toys, fashion, consumer electronics. Larger-ticket categories like auto and parts are projected to decline.
  • [02:47, Sky Canavas]: “Brands and retailers have to be prepared for a season where instead of the typical bump that we see... we’re likely to see this rare deceleration of sales growth.”

2. Changing Holiday Shopping Calendar

• Amazon’s Early October Events: Initiatives like Prime Big Deal Days are moving the holiday season earlier, prompting competitors (Target, Walmart) to follow suit.
  • [04:17, Zach Stamboer]: “Amazon...pulled the holiday season forward into October... set the stage for consumers diving right into the holidays and expecting discounts right away.”
• Compressed Traditional Season: Thanksgiving to Christmas is only one day longer than last year’s shortest window, intensifying the need for strategic planning.
  • [05:30, Sky Canavas]: “It’s a bit of a marathon, it’s a bit of a slog.”

3. The Enduring Role of Discounting & Expanding Promotions

• Discounts, deals, and promotional days remain the primary lever driving consumer spend, though value can go beyond straightforward price cuts.
  • [06:31, Zach Stamboer]: “With consumers pinching pennies, it’s going to be all about discounts and deals. That’s going to be the key lever...”
• Creative value strategies matter, such as free year-long shipping for Black Friday shoppers or exclusive products and experiences.
  • [08:05, Sky Canavas]: “The discounts didn’t have to be that deep because there was another incentive... that would drive repeat purchases.”
  • Notable example: Children’s wear brand Primary’s free shipping incentive.

4. Beyond Price—Building Loyalty & Emotional Connection

• Loyalty programs can drive engagement through early access, bonus points, or member-only perks—making value multidimensional.
  • [08:33, Zach Stamboer]: “Loyalty programs... go beyond just a discount. It might be early access... bonus points... member-only discounts.”
• Exclusive, limited assortments and hero products on marketplaces serve both as customer acquisition and brand awareness tools.
• Inventory management and the risk of out-of-stocks (especially in toys) due to cautious retailer ordering and tariffs is top-of-mind.

5. Standing Out: Personalization & Creating Shareable Moments

• Value messaging is crucial, but personalization and unique, experiential elements can differentiate brands, especially early in the consumer journey.
  • [10:41, Zach Stamboer]: “Retailers can use... what they know about the customer to reach them in different ways. So personalization works really well...”
• In-person experiences (pop-ups, social-friendly events) are important for awareness and brand love, extending impact beyond immediate sales.
  • [11:01, Sky Canavas]: “...experiences that add value to the customer’s entire holiday experience. Things that translate well onto social media.”

6. Mobile Commerce & Omnichannel Strategies

• Mobile continues accelerating, with over 50% of sales attributed to mobile channels during peak events like Prime Day.
  • [11:50, Sky Canavas]: “Mobile commerce really picks up during periods of heightened shopping activity... mobile was well over 50% of sales according to Adobe.”
• Buy Online Pickup In Store (BOPIS) is a growing conversion driver; retailers need to enable seamless add-on purchases at pickup.

7. The Power of Convenience

• Consistency, reliability, and frictionless shopping matter, especially in a season marked by economic caution.
  • [12:54, Zach Stamboer]: “The other thing is convenience. That’s the thing that Amazon and Walmart nail time and time again...”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:10, Susie Devakanyon]: “It’s the Super Bowl of retail... and now shoppers aren’t just buying for friends and family, they’re also treating themselves.”
• [09:29, Zach Stamboer]: “Doorbusters work online. Doorbusters also work.”
• [13:30, Susie Devakanyon]: “I love that. I’m gonna leave it with that.”

Predictions & Crystal Ball Picks

Standout Retailers for the 2025 Holiday Season

• Sky Canavas: Temu

  • Comeback anticipated due to return to U.S. advertising, discount-driven appeal, especially for budget-strapped holiday shoppers.
  • [13:48, Sky Canavas]: “I think in this environment where shoppers are... so budget conscious...the deals and discounts and very low prices... will really benefit them.”

• Zach Stamboer: LEGO

  • Less exposed to China tariffs (produced in Europe, Mexico, USA); strong pricing flexibility, broad appeal across age groups (children and ‘kidults’), heavy on IP-driven sets.
  • [15:04, Zach Stamboer]: “LEGO is... less vulnerable... because its bricks are made in Europe and Mexico...They hit the notes that people are looking for. They appeal to kid adults and they’ve got a whole lot of IP driven merchandise.”

• Zach’s Bonus Pick: Costco

  • Strong value proposition, treasure-hunt appeal, trusted for deals; even higher-ticket splurge items draw interest amidst value-seeking.
  • [16:41, Zach Stamboer]: “Costco...has been doing pretty well because they have a very strong value proposition.”

• Sky Canavas’ Tech Pick: Generative AI/ChatGPT

  • Predicts ChatGPT will roll out a checkout feature, streamlining gift purchases and taking the AI-agent shopping experience mainstream.
  • [18:10, Sky Canavas]: “I think the tech that everybody will have their eyes on is generative AI. And I’m going to specifically call out ChatGPT... it'll bring that agentic AI shopping experience more into the mainstream this holiday season.”

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:05-02:47 – Setting the scene: the complex state of the holiday season, shifting consumer psychology, and forecasted muted sales
• 02:47-03:49 – Key growth categories; areas of decline
• 03:49-06:31 – Changing shopping calendars, early October Prime events, and knock-on impacts for competitors/promotions
• 06:31-09:51 – The role and creative nuances of discounts, promotions, loyalty strategies, and inventory caution
• 09:51-12:54 – Tactics for standing out via emotional connections, brand moments, personalization, and the growing adoption of mobile/BOPIS
• 12:54-13:48 – The importance of convenience and seamless customer journeys
• 13:48-19:40 – Crystal ball predictions: standout retailers, categories, tech (AI and checkout innovation)

Takeaways for Retailers

• Balance Emotional Marketing and Value Offers: Both are essential as shoppers weigh discounts and brand stories.
• Plan for an Extended Promotion Period: The holiday calendar now starts in early October, demanding broader tactical approaches.
• Unlock Multidimensional Value: Combine discounts with creative loyalty initiatives, exclusive product offerings, and memorable shopping experiences.
• Leverage Mobile and Omnichannel Tactics: Ensure seamlessness between digital and in-store environments, capitalize on BOPIS and mobile impulse.
• Embrace AI to Remove Friction: Look for innovations in AI-powered shopping assistants and explore agentic commerce opportunities.

This episode provides actionable, forward-looking strategies for retailers facing a more competitive and cost-conscious holiday landscape, while spotlighting the innovation and adaptability needed to capture both wallet and heartshare.