Ross (3:45)

I'll give it an 8. So they still have some exposure. If a recession got prolonged or was quite severe, people may cancel their accounts or downgrade their tiers. But for now, I believe most people will continue subscribing Netflix. They're going to be probably stuck at home and spending less on entertainment outside the home because that's more expensive. And they don't rely on ad revenue as much as many other streaming services. They're more on subscription. The ad revenue is going to fluctuate sooner. I mean, it's already happening. You saw it in Comcast earnings this week.

Marcus (4:17)

Yeah, yeah. Rose and Black analyst Barton Crockett agrees with you, saying if a recession hits, we expect Netflix subscribers to be sticky since it's a stay at home cheap diversion of the type that has held up in past recessions. Paul, what do you think? I mean, the stock market seems to suggest that it is recession proof. Netflix stock is up over 20% year to date, basically since the new government took office. You compare that to big tech and media stocks. Snap's down 25%, Disney's down 20%. Amazon, Google both down around 15%. Meta around 10. So how recession proof do you think Netflix is out of 10?

Paul (4:54)

I gave it a seven. It's a lot more recession resistant than many of the companies you mentioned for a lot of reasons. First, there really is no significant tariff on digital goods. There are some regulations in some countries that amount to what would seem like a tariff, but I don't think the impact is going to be that big on Netflix. I think the reason I went for a seven as opposed to an eight or a nine, is that we are in a very uncertain time and we will be for quite a while. To Ross's point, Netflix business is still more about subscriptions than advertising. But there I think, even though, yes, it is a cheap form of entertainment. And I think Netflix is frankly going to be the last service left standing if it comes to that. But I also think that they have raised their prices. They've, you know, they're approaching a ceiling in the US where they, they, their monetization is, is the highest. So I, I don't think that, you know, people are going to be automatically just saying, okay, yeah, we're going to keep doing this. They might be more selective about when they subscribe to Netflix, so there might be some more churn that way.

Marcus (6:15)

I guess one of the benefits for Netflix is that people could just trade down, right? If you've got the standard plan, the 15, 16 buck one, you could go down to the seven, eight and the consumers being helped by saving seven, eight dollars there. But also the company, Netflix makes more money on those people anyway because they're more valuable because of the ad dollars that come in as a result of it. So because there's that lower tier price is, includes with ads. Catherine Babb of Quartz was pointing out Netflix still projecting near 30% margins. So they really don't think they're going to be affected by this as much as some other folks. That's a level of profitability which is just like shocking. It's kind of in line with Apple and Google. Disney's entertainment division, for context, posted an operating margin just above 11%. And Warner Brothers, Discovery and Paramount are barely profitable on the content side. So 30% margins are unheard of. But they've got to make sure that they can continue to, I mean they're not posting how many people they've added how many subscribers they've added quarter on quarter, but the goal is to still continue to add subscribers. Last time they did report Netflix had just over 300 million subscribers. End of last year they want to hit over 400 million. So from 300 to 400 million in the next five years, by 2030, can Netflix, Paul, reach over 400 million subscribers by, by 2030?

Paul (7:49)

I think they can. It's, it's an aggressive goal, but not unattainable given the, the choice that subscribers have to subscribe to different tiers. And given that in some of the countries where it doesn't quite have a lot of critical mass, there's a lot of opportunity. Plenty of Countries in Asia Pacific, notably India, even, I think, in Brazil, where Netflix has a very large subscriber base, there's still quite a bit of opportunity for growth. A lot of it is going to come down to whether they can license more sports content. That's going to drive wholesale increases in subscribers. And some of it may come down to what happens with the competition, especially considering how fragile some of its competitors are. So that could eventually pull more subscribers to Netflix.

Marcus (8:49)

Yeah. Ross, what do you think?

Ross (8:52)

I don't expect them to hit that metric because they're not reporting quarterly subscribers anymore. That gave me a sign that subscriber growth is slowing substantially and they don't feel like they have as much room to add. So they got ahead of that story and stopped reporting before they would start reporting flat numbers. So if they were on track to hit a goal that aggressive, I don't think they would have stopped the quarterly subscriber reporting.

Marcus (9:19)

What's quite concerning is research firm. Well, two things. Two things I think point to why they probably won't. One is research from Antenna estimating Netflix lost US subscribers in Q1, they'd added 2.5 million the previous one, so losing any is not good. And then two, it took them four years to go from 200 million to 300 million. From the end of 2020 to 2024, 15 million of those were in the US which means overwhelming majority to what Paul's saying were international. So if they're going to grow, they're going to grow there. But if it took them four years to go from two to 300, they're expecting to go from three to four. Obviously, it gets harder. As the law of large numbers, I, I can't see them hitting. Hitting that maybe 350, 360, but 5, 400 seems like a lot. Unless, Paul, to your point, they. They hit on, you know, a big sports package which.

Paul (10:17)

Yeah, like cricket in India or something like that.

Marcus (10:20)

Oh, interesting. Yeah.

Paul (10:21)

Tip the scales.

Marcus (10:22)

Yeah. Because I was gonna say there aren't many left. F1, but that's not gonna. That's not gonna do it. So one thing Netflix is working on to try to pull in more users or keep users around is, is maybe podcasts and also attracting content creators from. From places like YouTube. Podcasters and creators could find a new home on Netflix. Caitlin Huston, the Hollywood Reporter was saying, co CEO and Netflix of Netflix, Ted Sarandos was saying, quote, the question that's out there regarding content is, is it premium? Some of it is. And we believe we have the best Monetization model on the planet for premium storytelling telling I think we can, we could help those creators reach an audience and could help de risk them. Unlike the kind of typical UGC user generated content models. Close quote Ross, do video podcasts and content creators fit nicely into Netflix's offering in your opinion?

Ross (11:26)

Yeah, it's a new place for them to draw content producers and I think it'll be pretty seamless. You already see some of that with like the Ms. Rachel stuff that's on Netflix where it's just the repurposing of content that already exists elsewhere, particularly on YouTube. You know you're also seeing creators have success otherware like a Mr. Beast show on Amazon. So I don't think there will be a strong division in the future between like social media creators versus like Hollywood producers and actors. There'll be like a, a molding where the line becomes less clear. And I would say that type of content producer will become valuable to Netflix, especially for very young viewers.

Marcus (12:11)

Yeah, my, my pushback against the argument for would be is it's difficult to get people to think about you in a different light. You know, like Spotify has tried to say that they're the place for, for ebooks and I just, you know, for audiobooks I, I don't think as that you know, we're trying to be the audio app, but I think of them as the place for music and I wonder if Netflix can rebrand themselves to, to make people think, oh podcasts. Yes. Or content creators even. Yes, like Netflix is going to be the place for that.

Ross (12:47)

Oh, they also want to have some quality control too. Like YouTube is just the fire hose where like Anything is on YouTube. You don't have to like get that approved by, you know, anyone. You can make a video and it's up there within minutes and Netflix is still going to have precision and choose selectively which creators it brings on. So it's not going to be quite like a YouTube or TikTok.

Marcus (13:10)

Yeah, that's a good point. Paul, what do you think? Do they fit?

Paul (13:13)

I do, I do. And I think the analogous example would be Spotify. I agree that YouTube and TikTok are inherently different. I don't think that is what Netflix is going for. But if you see the kinds of celebrity deals that Spotify signed, you know, Joe Rogan being the most prominent and if you look at how celebrity podcasts or celebrity creator podcasts are now increasingly video focused, Netflix seems like a good venue for that. I do agree Markus, that making that brand flip or changing the perception is a very tall order. But I think Netflix has the capacity and the resources and even if you look at the more traditional celebrity deals they've done with the likes of Shonda Rhimes or the Obamas or Ryan Reynolds, you could easily spin off some podcasts from that, some, you know, video podcasts that would instantly, I think draw a lot of attention. So, so I think if, if spot, if, if Netflix decides to go in this direction, I think it's, I would be pretty optimistic about it.

Marcus (14:26)

Lucia Moses of Business Insider, our sister company, was arguing both sides of the coin, saying that on the optimistic side, some creators are eager for the prestige, upfront money and ability to reach new viewers that Netflix and other Hollywood players can afford. However, on the more pessimistic side, she says but for others, especially well established creators, the advantage is less clear when they've built multi platform businesses independently and enjoy control over their productions as well as direct relationships with their audiences. So yeah, see both sides of it here. Lots of content on Netflix. Already trying to put more on as we've been talking about, but doesn't really matter if you can't find anything. And so Ivan Mehta of TechCrunch writing the Netflix is building a new AI infused interactive search experience aimed at improving discovery, which I'm sure a lot of people can relate to. Going to watch anything really on any platform, sitting down, just searching forever and either deciding no, I don't have time anymore because I've been doing this for 45 minutes, or just falling back on the tried and true. R. Grace Harmon, explaining that the OpenAI powered feature lets users look for shows based on highly specific terms, including a viewer's current mood, life, stage or interests instead of just title, genre or actors. According to Bloomberg. Paul Can AI Fit fix Netflix's search problem?

Paul (15:57)

It can. It really all depends on, on how it's deployed. And you know, I, I don't know that I would totally agree with the premise that Netflix has a search problem per se. I mean their UI has been copied by many other streaming services and even other companies that aren't streaming services. So they, they've done something right. They've their business has also depended on its own search and its own algorithms. So clearly there's something there. But to borrow the word that Ross used to describe YouTube, it is a bit of a fire hose at this point where there is so much content. There are times when I sit down to watch something and I think I'll just sort of like flip through Netflix and I just get decision Paralysis. And I've spent 45 minutes just trying to figure out what to watch. And by then, like, the moment has passed and I end up watching nothing.

Marcus (16:54)

You're not alone. There's Nielsen research. 20, 90% of consumers will turn off the TV and do something else. They can't find a title they're interested in.

Paul (17:03)

Yep, guilty as charged.

Ross (17:05)

Yeah, I keep a notes app on my phone, like a document of things across various streaming services that I want to watch when I have time. So, like, when I finally sit down, I'm like, oh, yeah, the Celtics documentary on Max. Okay, right, that's next.

Marcus (17:19)

Skip that. But the algorithm is everything. And you know, 45% of Gen Z is frequently decide what they want to watch based on the algorithm or for you page to Luna survey versus 30% who rely on recommendations from friends. But yeah, trying to keep track of that can be difficult. I also do the nozap thing.

Paul (17:40)

Yeah, me too.

Marcus (17:40)

They're also working on discovery in. In other ways as well. A new homepage design on its TV apps to try and help you find things better. Ross, do you think AI can fix Netflix's search problem?

Ross (17:55)

I don't. Because when AI has been jammed into other search products, it can make them worse. So, like Google. The UX on Google is kind of bad right now. It's worse since they started putting AI in it. I would say the same at Microsoft. Just a tiny, tiny example. I asked Google a few weeks ago, what day is WrestleMania this year? And it gave me the wrong date. And it was said it was powered by AI. I mean, this is the most simple query that it would have gotten correct before. So, like, AI just presents some unfactual information more often that I just feel like there could be more bugs introducing it. AI does a lot of things great. Search is still being figured out, for sure.

Paul (18:44)

Yeah, yeah, I totally agree with the accuracy part, but I also think that AI systems will get a lot better at that in. In not a long time. So when we think about, you know, can Netflix do this? I'm thinking a little bit more, like, in the long term, not like, you know, in the next three to six months, but maybe in the next year, two, three years. And I think the technology will come a long way. I've already started seeing some improvements in the accuracy of results. It's totally anecdotal. I don't know that it can be proven out, but I think as the technology improves, Netflix will obviously be able to harness that.

Marcus (19:25)

I also don't think you need AI to Do some of these things that they're suggesting because it says that they're going to recommend shows based on specific terms, including a viewer's mood, life stage and interests. You could just have a couple of questions when you open the app, you know, or you could have categories that group things by mood, life stage or interests without AI. But I do think these are good ways to. Because sometimes you'll sit down and you do think, you know, I want. I feel a certain way or certain shows resonate because you are a certain life stage. And so I think getting away from just title, genre and actors is a positive, whether AI is evolved or not.

Paul (20:05)

If I'm asked about my mood, when I power up an app, it's instantly going to put me in a very, very foul mood.

Marcus (20:12)

Sorry, Rose. God.

Ross (20:14)

You know, there's only so much space on the screen and like Netflix or Prime Video have so many titles that I don't know if there's. No matter what technology is, I don't know if there's a good way to surface all that and bring it right in front of the viewer's eyes. I feel like people are always going to have to dig a little bit if they want to watch something that isn't just the newest thing that they've put out or the most recent thing or the thing that correlates the best with your existing watch list.

Marcus (20:46)

I wonder if the key here is, you know, and maybe. I don't know if they do this. I don't. I don't think I watched enough streaming service to know. But some way that you can have people after they've watched something that instantly share it with you, to be like, oh, I think you'd like, like. So you had a pool of films, whereas, you know, I've got my. Whether it's like contacts in the phone or a certain subset of it, like, if my mum is sending me a recommendation and my best mate also just saw something, and the number of times people recommend things, then you forget what they've said, which is why Ross has the Notes app, I imagine. So maybe that's a way.

Ross (21:18)

Which is barely more sophisticated than having a piece of paper with each other.

Paul (21:24)

I think they would have to build a lot of social functionality into it and I don't know if they have the appetite for that.

Marcus (21:31)

Yeah, yeah. And it's a tv, is most people watching on the TV anyway, so it makes it a lot harder. All right, just. This ends by talking about how much money Netflix is making from advertising, how much it wants to make David Bloom of Forbes noting that Netflix is targeting $9 billion in worldwide ad revenue by 2030. So five years out, our forecasting team estimates that US ad revenues for the streaming giant will top 2 billion this year. So Netflix targeting 9 in 2030, that's worldwide. Our forecast team says US they have 2 billion this year. Ross, do you think reaching 9 billion in ad revenue is achievable by 2030?

Ross (22:15)

It is achievable because Netflix still has a lot of room to expand internationally. They also have a lot of room to expand in the US still. Most viewers are not on an ad supported plan, but they're just kind of getting their ad business stood up. You know, they're, they're just, just starting to really have their own tech and tools and diversify away from the initial deal that they did with Microsoft. So they're really building out the ad business. There's a lot of regions where they can reach more viewers than what they currently have now. But I also think that another big reason why that 9 billion figure is obtainable is we're talking about $9 billion in today's terms. I think we're going to have pretty significant inflation. And by 2030, $9 billion won't be as much as it sounds like it is right now.

Marcus (23:01)

Is it moving fast enough though, Ross? Because Dan Gallagher of the Wall Street Journal says Netflix is building its ad business, but it's been surprisingly slow going, giving its large subscriber base. Analysts estimate Netflix generated a little over 2 billion in ad supported revenue last year, similar to our figures, about 5% of the company's total revenue, according to visible alpha estimates. Are you expecting this to have gone a bit faster?

Ross (23:29)

I would have expected it to go a bit faster, but that doesn't mean that the potential in five years time isn't still there.

Marcus (23:38)

And I guess it does. I mean, it's kind of good maybe to a certain extent, because this does insulate them from a slowdown in ad growth. Ad revenue is only a tiny slice of what Netflix makes in dollars. Paul, can him reach 9 billion by 2030?

Paul (23:54)

I'm a bit skeptical on this one. To bring it back to John Heisman, I think this is a, not just a forward pass, but a Hail Mary. You know, maybe they can get relatively close to that. But it seems that first, yes, the, the ramp up has been rather slow, although I think it will accelerate when Netflix builds its own ads ad tech stack.

Marcus (24:20)

Right. Switching over from Microsoft.

Paul (24:22)

Yeah. And I think Netflix has learned a lot and they, they said all along that they were not going to, you know, that it was going to be slow and, and I think it's credit to doing it right as opposed to doing it fast. But I don't think that the markets that, I mean, right now they have ad tiers in something like a dozen territories and they are the, the ones that I think probably offer the best monetization opportunities. I think when you look at a country like India, I can more easily foresee a big burst of new subscribers than a big increase in ad revenue. So, yeah, I mean, if I had to handicap it, I'd say probably, like maybe they get to eight, but not nine.

Marcus (25:14)

One of the positives here is. So in terms of ad supported signups, 43% of US customer signups in February were for the ad supported tier. That's up from 40% in January, so from 40 to 43 in just a month, according to Antenna. And that's in US that the US obviously, where they make more money or average revenue per user. But still, yeah, it does seem like it's a little bit more slow going than perhaps you would have expected, given the huge subscriber base. That's all we've got time for for this episode. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you. First to Ross.

Ross (25:50)

Thanks, Marcus.

Marcus (25:51)

And to Paul.

Paul (25:52)

Thanks for having me, as always.

Marcus (25:54)

Indeed. Indeed. And thanks to the whole editing crew, Victoria, John, Lance and Danny. Stuart runs the team and Sophie does our social media. Thanks to everyone for listening in to behind the Numbers Knee Marketer video podcast made possible by rokt. Please leave us a quick review if you can. It's the currency that keeps this podcast going. We'll be back Monday talking about Google's recent performance. Happiest of weekends.