Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

Episode Summary: ‘Instant Checkout’: How ChatGPT Could Redefine Online Shopping Before Amazon and Google Strike Back | Reimagining Retail

Date: October 15, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Karina Lamb (Senior Analyst, UK), Zach Stamble (Senior Analyst, US)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the recently launched "Instant Checkout" feature in ChatGPT and its potential to transform online shopping. EMARKETER’s Marcus, Karina Lamb, and Zach Stamble analyze whether OpenAI’s innovation can truly disrupt e-commerce—and if so, how retailers and tech giants like Amazon and Google might respond. The conversation dissects consumer adoption curves, functionality limitations, retail industry impacts, and competitive threats, providing a grounded outlook on the fusion of generative AI and retail.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Is ChatGPT’s "Instant Checkout"?

• Description:
  Users can now ask ChatGPT for shopping advice and purchase products (currently from Etsy, coming soon to Shopify and more) directly within the ChatGPT interface, using saved payment/shipping info for plus/pro users.
  • Current Limitations: Only single-item purchases are supported. Multi-item carts and broader retailer integrations are promised.
  • Business Model: OpenAI takes a commission from each transaction.
• Quote (Marcus, 02:38):

  "You bought it without ever leaving ChatGPT and the company takes a slice off the top of all purchases."

[02:38]

2. How Big of a "Splash" Will This Make?

• Karina’s Score: 5.5/10—medium impact in the short term due to slow behavioral changes and data/privacy concerns.

  • Supporting Points:
    • Consumers are using GenAI tools more for research and consideration than for direct purchases.
    • Shopping behaviors are slow to change, as seen in social and voice commerce.
    • Quote:

      "The adoption curve is often quite different to the kind of tech curve... just need to look at social commerce, voice commerce..."
      —Karina, [03:21]

• Zach’s Score: 4/10—currently limited utility and niche product selection; real disruption requires broader partnerships and multi-item capabilities.

  • Quote:

    "Right now the functionality is not that great and the partnership with Etsy seems like a strange one to go out with."
    —Zach, [06:36]

3. Where Is the Immediate Value?

• Discovery vs. Transaction:

  • Generative AI excels in research/discovery phases, but translating this into purchases is still rare.
  • Adoption of "instant checkout" likely to begin with low-cost, low consideration products: gifts, small accessories, cosmetics, "novelty" items.

• Gift Shopping as an Early Use Case

  • Quote:

    "One in three GenAI shoppers use the technology to get present ideas."
    —Marcus, referencing Adobe data, [13:42]

• Routine Purchases as Future Growth

  • Zach argues replenishment and household goods would be a real breakthrough, but that’s not supported yet.

4. Consumer Behavior, Friction, and Trust

• Habitual Challenges:

  • Most consumers enjoy shopping and rely on multiple channels for different inputs, making funnel "collapse" by AI less attractive for now.
  • Quote:

    "Habits are hard to break."
    —Zach, [15:30]

• Trust in AI Recommendations:

  • Growing trust in AI suggestions—"86% of users now trusting AI product recommendations," but still unease about financial data privacy.
  • Quote:

    "People can trust that the AI is giving them a good recommendation. But are they going to feel comfortable with sharing a load of kind of personal financial information with the tools?"
    —Karina, [18:58]

5. Retailer Impact: Gaining Sales, Losing Relationships?

• Brand Concerns:

  • While merchants get incremental sales, they lose opportunities for upselling, loyalty, and data collection.
  • Retail media revenue is at risk if consumers stop visiting branded sites.
  • Quote:

    "They could stand to lose retail media revenue. If people are no longer visiting their websites... that's quite a big impact for the sector."
    —Karina, [20:22]

• The Marketplace Tradeoff:

  • Merchants must weigh incremental sales against reduced control and less data, similar to placing products on Amazon or social platforms.
  • Quote:

    "You know, they trade some brand visibility but they gain incremental sales and that's worth it if it exposes you to a whole big customer base."
    —Zach, [21:27]

6. The Looming Threat from Google and Amazon

• Google:

  • Google is preparing its own AI-powered shopping features (visual panels in search, personalized price tracking, agentic checkout, etc.).
  • Has massive reach, stored payment data, and strong retail relationships.
  • Quote:

    "Given its search dominance and its existing relationship with brands and retailers, it might just be able to scale a little bit quicker."
    —Karina, [23:37]

• Amazon:

  • Already experimenting with Buy for Me, Alexa voice shopping, and recommendation agents (e.g., Rufus).
  • Deeply embedded habits and an unmatched product catalog.
  • Quote:

    "Is this going to steal customers from Amazon? I don't know. I don't think so."
    —Zach, [25:14]

• AI as a Voice Commerce Catalyst:

  • Generative AI may finally accelerate the use of voice assistants for commerce, historically slower than predicted.
  • Quote:

    "Genai could be the thing that really moves the needle on voice commerce... it was a kind of super clunky experience."
    —Karina, [26:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Adoption Curve:

  "The adoption curve is often quite different to the kind of tech curve."
  —Karina, [03:21]

• On Platform Limits:

  "Right now the functionality is not that great and the partnership with Etsy seems like a strange one to go out with."
  —Zach, [06:36]

• Social Commerce Comparison:

  "It took years for Facebook to figure out what social commerce should be... and even today... it's now up to 6.6% [of US e-commerce sales]. On the one hand... small piece. On the other hand... $85 billion."
  —Zach, [08:06]

• On Shopper Journey:

  "Do consumers actually want to collapse that purchase funnel?"
  —Karina, [14:31]

• Trust vs. Privacy:

  "Trust in the recommendations is very high, but the trust in data privacy and security is more of an issue."
  —Karina, [18:58]

• Brand-AI Relationship:

  "It'll take some time for OpenAI to build that trust that brands feel like it's worthwhile for them to get on there."
  —Zach, [22:38]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:38] — Introduction to Instant Checkout, user experience
• [03:11–05:48] — "Splash" ratings, behavioral and adoption barriers
• [06:36–09:42] — Functionality gaps and comparison to social commerce adoption
• [10:26–11:54] — App partner integrations and expansion potential (e.g., Expedia, grocery, recipe planning)
• [13:03–16:44] — Early use cases, gifts vs. routine products, consumer research data
• [18:20–19:58] — Trust in AI recommendations vs. privacy, YouGov/Salesforce data
• [20:22–22:38] — Merchant impacts: loyalty, media revenue, brand relationships
• [23:37–27:41] — Competition from Google & Amazon; voice commerce potential

Tone & Language

The analysts strike a conversational, slightly irreverent tone, mixing data-driven analysis with lived examples (recipe planning, trip booking), and frequent references to industry surveys and forecasts. Their approach is measured, skeptical of hype, and grounded in real-world consumer behavior.

Takeaways

• Cool tech, but slow revolution: ChatGPT’s Instant Checkout is a clever debut for AI-driven shopping, but most shoppers are still using AI for research, not transactions.
• Adoption challenges: New behaviors (especially around payment and privacy) take time to build trust. Real impact will need added utility (carts, broader merchants, routine/replenishment options).
• Merchants’ dilemma: Brands will weigh incremental sales against lost loyalty and data—echoing lessons from marketplaces and the slow growth of social commerce.
• Big tech won't stand still: Google and Amazon are poised to respond, likely at great scale, but execution and habit-breaking remain high hurdles.
• Voice commerce's second act?: GenAI may finally make voice shopping what Alexa and others always promised.

For marketers, retailers, and digital strategists, this episode provides a clear-eyed look at the future of AI-driven commerce: promising, but a marathon—not a sprint.