Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

Episode: President Trump’s Second Year: How the Administration Will Impact Media, Advertising, and Technology
Date: January 30, 2026
Hosts & Guests: Marcus (Host), Garjo Sevilla (Senior Analyst, Tech & AI), Jeremy Goldman (Senior Director of Content)

Episode Overview

This episode of Behind the Numbers takes an in-depth look at the evolving impact of President Trump’s second term (specifically, his administration’s second year) on the technology, AI, media, and advertising industries. Host Marcus is joined by analysts Garjo Sevilla and Jeremy Goldman, who break down the current landscape, regulatory changes, and the new realities that marketers, media owners, and tech companies are facing under the administration's policies.

Tech & AI Under Trump: 2025 and Looking Forward to 2026

(00:54 – 16:08)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• U.S. Dominance & Government Involvement in AI Hardware

  • The administration has solidified its relationship with big tech, particularly in the AI hardware space.
  • U.S. companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel remain at the forefront, but the government has intervened heavily, including attempting a bailout of Intel and seeking a 10% stake in the company.
  • Export licensing and new regulations have been introduced, particularly limiting where high-end AI chips can be sold. Lower-performance versions have been created to skirt export restrictions, especially with China.
  • Quote [03:58]
    "The administration’s relationship with big tech seems to have solidified around a number of things... The US government, I think, attempted to bail out Intel... As for Nvidia and AMD, they got into export licensing to a certain extent." — Garjo Sevilla

• Supply Chain Constraints, Obsolescence & Environmental Impact

  • Ongoing high demand causes persistent supply constraints, with Nvidia holding a dominant market position.
  • Creation of limited-performance chips for export as a workaround, compared to "selling last year's model" (05:00).
  • Rapid chip cycles mean older chips quickly become obsolete, less energy-efficient, and require more cooling, placing strain on local communities and resources.
  • Quote [10:46]
    "Old older chips tend to consume more energy... That's a wider impact than just the business. That's communities that you're sort of stepping on, impacting." — Garjo Sevilla

• Future Projections for 2026

  • Expect more international deal-making, possibly opening new avenues for U.S. tech firms abroad, but not resolving shortages.
  • Growing concerns about ROI on major AI investments—investors are now "asking where’s the return on investment for all this, for all the AI money that we're spending?" (11:43)
  • The administration is likely to continue oversight and be involved in deal-brokering, limiting independent tech company operations.

• AI Regulation & State-Level Initiatives

  • Federal regulation on AI is loosening, favoring acceleration over constraint, in contrast to the stricter approaches under previous administrations.
  • Model releases and competition are accelerating, but no major federal regulatory frameworks are yet in place.
  • California is poised to continue as a leader at the state level, especially in privacy, notably concerning minors’ data.
  • Quote [13:28]
    "There’s a loosening towards allowing AI to be a bit more—to accelerate the development of AI... Unlike in the Biden era where, you know, they were really looking to clamp down certain aspects of…development." — Garjo Sevilla
  • Quote [15:25]
    "California will continue to push the envelope…We’ve also seen states actually pushing the envelope on things like privacy around minors and their data." — Garjo Sevilla

Media & Advertising in Year Two: Navigating Power & Uncertainty

(16:11 – 27:07)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Media Environment: Regulatory Leverage & Cultural Flashpoints

  • The administration has taken a "thumb on the scale" approach, leveraging regulatory bodies like the FCC in unprecedented ways.
  • Notable incidents, such as Jimmy Kimmel’s temporary cancellation and digital resurgence, illustrate the volatility and shifting platforms for controversial media figures.
  • Quote [16:58]
    "There's been a lot of... thumb on the scale type maneuvering by this administration... A lot of that has been shaped by power moves and power brokering behind the scenes." — Jeremy Goldman

• Linear vs. Digital and the Rise of Direct-to-Platform Talent

  • Linear/legacy media faces increased risk of regulatory action, while digital platforms provide alternative outlets for talent, shown by both Kimmel and Tucker Carlson.
  • Quote [18:30]
    "If you're a media owner, you have to think about this is the regulatory environment that you have to play ball in... There's a lot of unpredictability tied to that." — Jeremy Goldman

• Advertising: Agility, Brand Safety, and Contingency Planning

  • Real-time monitoring and agility are vital—advertisers must plan for "full pivot" scenarios if platforms or personalities face sudden regulatory or cultural backlash.
  • Programmatic channels enable quick spend shifts in response to unrest or brand safety threats.
  • Quote [20:31]
    "Brand safety matters... Just because something is difficult to manage doesn't mean it's not worth doing. And having those contingency plans in place—it's a really good point." — Jeremy Goldman

• Mergers, M&A, and Favoritism

  • The administration appears open to media consolidation, which could drive further M&A activity. Companies may make "concessions to play ball" as deals are brokered and scrutinized by regulators.
  • Expect to see further consolidation driven by the administration's pro-business stance.
  • Quote [23:23]
    "There are going to have to be some concessions that are made to essentially play ball with this administration... Are we seeing more consolidation from a media standpoint?" — Jeremy Goldman

• CEO Diplomacy & Public Silence

  • CEOs of major media/advertising companies are now acting more like diplomats, refraining from political commentary and aligning strategies with the realities of doing business under the administration.
  • Quote [24:46]
    "I think what you're going to see more and more is certain people change a little bit about what they say or maybe refrain from public commentary... It's not necessarily a political thing... This is who my partner is for the next few years." — Jeremy Goldman

• Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and Ad Spend

  • Pending Supreme Court decisions about Trump's tariffs have major implications. If tariffs are struck down, categories like consumer goods ("CPG") could see higher ad spending due to lower prices and increased demand.
  • Quote [26:06]
    "If demand slows because products become more expensive, which they largely do under a tariff regime, we think ad spending will go up if there aren't tariffs in place..." — Jeremy Goldman

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Export Controls:
  "Another thing they did which was unusual was they created lower performing AI chips that sort of fall under the limitations so that those could be sold to China and other markets."
  — Garjo Sevilla [05:00]

• On Brand Safety:
  "Just because something is difficult to manage doesn't mean it's not worth doing. And having those contingency plans in place... Be thinking about, if something does happen, where are the places that something could occur?"
  — Jeremy Goldman [20:31]

• On CEO Diplomacy:
  "I think what you're going to see more and more is certain people change a little bit about what they say or maybe refrain from public commentary, especially when they have some business that they think is in front of the administration."
  — Jeremy Goldman [24:46]

Important Timestamps

• AI Hardware and Export Policy: 03:58 – 06:46
• Discussion of Ongoing Chip Supply Chain Issues: 08:10 – 10:46
• Regulatory Forecasts & State vs. Federal Action: 13:15 – 15:58
• Media/Advertising Under Regulatory Pressure: 16:58 – 18:30
• Advertiser Agility & Programmatic Spend: 20:31 – 22:00
• Media Mergers and CEO Strategies: 23:23 – 26:06
• Tariff Impacts on Ad Budgets: 26:06 – 27:07

Tone & Style

The episode blends EMARKETER’s signature analytical, data-driven approach with a conversational, occasionally witty tone. Analysts approach high-level policy and business challenges in digital media and technology with detail and careful speculation, while also acknowledging unpredictability ("I will make a bold prediction that's not bold at all...") and using illustrative, everyday comparisons (e.g., AI chips compared to "last year’s model" cars).

Conclusion

This episode delivers a nuanced analysis of how Trump’s administration is shaping the digital landscape, particularly in AI hardware, regulatory frameworks, and the media environment. Both Garjo and Jeremy agree: oversight is here to stay, the tech supply chain will remain constrained for the foreseeable future, and media/advertising professionals must plan for a volatile environment with agile contingency strategies. Key regulatory developments, state-level privacy pushes, and possible Supreme Court decisions on tariffs hang in the balance as major determinants of the year ahead.

For further details and the full report, listeners are encouraged to visit EMARKETER's website (Pro Plus subscribers).